Sunday, December15, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Rumson, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 4:32PM Sunday December 15, 2019 6:02 PM EST (23:02 UTC) Moonrise 9:11PMMoonset 11:14AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 343 Pm Est Sun Dec 15 2019
.gale warning in effect until 7 pm est this evening...
Tonight..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..W winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening.
Tue..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of rain in the evening.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 343 Pm Est Sun Dec 15 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure briefly builds over the region tonight, then drifts offshore Monday. A low pressure system approaches the region Monday and impacts the region Monday night and Tuesday before moving northeast to the northern atlantic Tuesday night into Wednesday. A polar front approaches Wednesday and moves across Wednesday night. Canadian high pressure moves in for Thursday through Friday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rumson , NJ
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location: 40.38, -74.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 152044 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 344 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will move from overhead of the region tonight to offshore on Monday morning. A warm front will slowly lift through part of the area on Monday. A wave of low pressure tracking along the warm front will move across the area on Tuesday before departing Tuesday night. An Arctic cold front will move through the region on Wednesday. High pressure is expected to build in for the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/. The tight pressure gradient between low to our northeast and high pressure building in from the west will weaken this evening and overnight as the high moves overhead of the Mid-Atlantic region. Before it does so, gusty wind will continue for a few more hours, before dropping off by sunset or shortly after. Winds will lighten then become light and variable overnight.

Most of the night will remain precipitation free until very late in the night. Any clouds from the daytime will dissipate by the early evening, before more clouds fill in overnight. If clouds remain cleared out long enough and winds become light enough, temperatures may actually cool down more than forecast which could have an effect on precipitation types as we go into Monday. There is a chance that some precipitation could begin during the early morning hours, just before sunrise. It looks like once precipitation moves in, it would begin as mostly snow everywhere, except across southern Delaware and Maryland where a mix of rain, sleet, and snow could occur at the onset. Little to no accumulation is expected through 7 am Monday, but that will change during the day as discussed below.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. Some of the details of the upcoming winter weather event are beginning to resolve themselves. 150 kt 300 mb jet streak will lift from south to north through the region Monday morning, and behind it, a warm front will extend out ahead of developing low pressure over the Gulf Coast states. Meanwhile, surface high pressure over New Jersey Monday morning will move out to sea in the afternoon.

Light overrunning precip will develop out ahead of the warm front and will move into Delmarva and the Delaware Valley Monday by late Monday morning. Initially, temperatures will be cold enough to support snow throughout, but as the warm front lifts north, temperatures will warm above freezing, and the rain/snow line should lift to around Philadelphia by lunchtime. Snow, or a mix of rain and snow, will continue across the Lehigh valley, and most of northern New Jersey, while snow continues north of I-80.

The change with this forecast compared with the previous model runs is that the low is taking a bit more of a southern track. This brings the heaviest QPF a bit farther south, and results in less QPF for the southern Poconos, lehigh Valley, and far northern New Jersey, and slightly higher amounts for southern New Jersey and Delmarva. For the southern Poconos, this also results in slightly lower forecast snow amounts, now generally on the order of 1-2 inches for Monday and Monday night.

Precip ramps up Monday night and Tuesday as the low lifts to the north, and passes over Delmarva and southern New Jersey by Tuesday afternoon.

In terms of sensible weather/p-type, precip should change to all rain across southern New Jersey, portions of southeast Pennsylvania, and Delmarva by late Monday afternoon, and should continue as rain through the duration of the event into Tuesday evening as 1000-500 mb thicknesses rise to above 550 dam and 850 mb temps will be above +6C. Moderate to locally heavy rain is possible with the passage of the low late Monday night through Tuesday afternoon. Over an inch of liquid equivalent is possible during the duration of the event.

For areas mainly along and north of the Fall Line, 850 mb temps gradually warm to above freezing, but it will take some time for surface temps to rise above freezing. As a result, a prolonged period of sleet and freezing rain, eventually changing to rain and freezing rain should persist across those areas Monday night through Tuesday morning, then precip changes to plain rain.

For the southern Poconos, the wintry weather continues through Tuesday afternoon.

Will go ahead and issue a Winter Weather Advisory for areas mainly along and north and west of I-95 from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning, and for areas north of I-80 until Tuesday afternoon.

Low pressure departs Tuesday evening and moves out to sea Tuesday night. Behind the departing low, a surge of colder air filters into the region as a cold front works its way to the south and east. There may be some wintry precip, especially up north, with the cold frontal passage, but conditions should dry out after midnight Tuesday night.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Overview .

A fairly progressive pattern for the middle and latter part of the week. At upper levels, a sharp shortwave trough will bring a shot of cold air to the region for the midweek period. This could be accompanied by scattered snow squalls in parts of the area. Heading later into the week, there will be a gradual trend for the building of extensive ridging over the central US, likely leading to significant warm anomalies there over the next week or two. However, current indications are that at least through this period, the prevailing ridge axis location will be too far west for those large warm anomalies to work into the Northeast and mid-Atlantic. A continued tendency for cold surface high pressure to be centered to our north will also make it difficult for us to see more than a tempered and gradual warm-up even as ridging to our west expands further towards the weekend. There are also hints of a coastal storm developing next weekend, but this remains highly uncertain.

Dailies .

Wednesday-Wednesday night . An Arctic shortwave and associated surface low and cold front will dive southeast into New England on Wednesday. Very robust shortwave with 500mb height anomalies in the range of -2 to -2.5 SD in the base of the trough. 850mb temperature anomalies as low as -20C in the heart of this trough. So this is going to bring quite a cold blast to the Northeast and mid-Atlantic for midweek. The main question for Wednesday is whether this Arctic blast will be preceded by snow squalls. This will largely depend on trough positioning. Overall, looks to be a favorable, potentially very favorable, setup for snow squalls in areas that experience the strongest forcing and lift from the trough and front. The concern locally has been whether we may be too far south to experience the more favorable dynamics. In those dynamically favored areas, most guidance indicates an environment of steep low level lapse rates, non-zero CAPE (~25-75J/kg), and high relative humidities (>80%) in the boundary layer and snow growth zone. These are all the things one would look for to see snow squalls, and most model Snow Squall Parameter values are also quite high ahead of the front. I fully expect intense snow squalls in parts of the Northeast on Wednesday, and currently think northern NJ and the Poconos are probably fair game for this potential, but am less confident further south. I bumped PoPs up to chance across the far northwest and expanded slight chance PoPs a little further southeast to account for this. We will continue to watch this over the next couple days. Overnight, behind the front, plunging temperatures as Arctic air pours into the region. Teens and low 20s will be common for lows with wind chill values in the single digits. Did not want to take temps quite a low as some of the colder guidance due to the wind allowing for continued mixing, but the wind chills will make it feel colder.

Thursday-Friday . High pressure in control behind the Arctic front, so it should be dry, but cold. In particular, the daytime period on Thursday looks very cold. Many areas will fail to get out of the 20s during the day, with some teens for highs in the far north. Thursday night looks like an excellent radiational cooling setup as high pressure crests overhead, so even with some warming temperatures aloft I expect it to be about as cold as Wednesday night, though without much wind it will not feel quite as cold. Some moderation by Friday as heights rise and 850mb temperatures warm considerably. Most areas should add about 10 degrees to their Thursday highs, though that still leaves us below average.

Next weekend . Lots of uncertainty as usual this far in advance. Global model guidance, especially the GFS and EC, had been showing potential for the development of a phased coastal storm over the weekend. They have backed off that idea on their latest runs due to keeping the northern and southern streams separate. We have many days to watch this and there will probably be more large swings in the guidance in the days ahead. This period should start to come into better focus towards the middle of the week as the storm from the early part of this week moves away.

AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of Today . VFR. Gusty west to northwest winds 15-20 knots, with gusts 20-30 knots and occasional gusts up to 35 knots. Wind gusts will diminish by this evening. --High confidence.

Tonight . VFR conditions will continue through the night. Winds will become light and variable overnight. --High confidence.

Monday . Conditions will start VFR at the start of Monday, however, deteriorating conditions will develop through the morning and into the afternoon as snow, then a wintry mix of precipitation spreads northward across the area. As snow begins initially, MVFR will develop briefly, before lowering to IFR through the morning and into the afternoon. Light and variable winds early will become northeast to east 5-10 knots. --High confidence in diminishing conditions. Lower confidence in timing and precipitation type changes.

Outlook .

Monday . Sub-VFR conditions in snow, then a wintry mix for KRDG/KABE/KTTN. Snow in the morning changes to plain rain for KMIV/KACY/KILG/KPHL/KPNE by Monday afternoon, then Restrictions likely with a mix of rain and snow. Light SE winds become E-NE less than 10 kt in the afternoon.

Monday night . Sub-VFR in rain at I-95 corridor terminals and for KMIV/KACY. Sub-VFR in snow, sleet, and freezing rain at KRDG/KABE. E- NE winds less than 10 kt.

Tuesday . Sub-VFR in rain, except freezing rain possible at KABE. NE winds become NW less than 10 kt.

Tuesday night . Improving conditions through the night. NW winds 10- 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt.

Wednesday-Wednesday night . Mainly VFR. Slight chance of an afternoon or evening snow shower or squall with brief sub-VFR conditions especially north of TTN. West-northwest wind of 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 30 kt possible, diminishing overnight. Moderate confidence.

Thursday-Friday . VFR. Light northwest winds becoming light and variable on Friday. High confidence.

MARINE. Rest of Today . The Gale Warning for the New Jersey Atlantic coast and Small Craft Advisory for the Delaware Bay and Delaware Atlantic coast remain in effect for the rest of this afternoon into this evening as gusty winds remain along the waters.

Tonight . The Small craft Advisory will likely be able to be dropped this evening for the Delaware bay and Delaware Atlantic coast as winds diminish below advisory levels.

The Gale Warning for the New Jersey Atlantic coast will likely be able to be converted to a Small Craft Advisory this evening as winds diminish some. Later this evening and overnight, the advisory will likely be able to be dropped as winds and seas continue to diminish below advisory levels.

Outlook .

Monday . Sub-SCA winds/seas expected. A chance of snow and VSBY restrictions.

Monday night . Sub-SCA winds/seas expected. A chance of rain and VSBY restrictions.

Tuesday . SCA winds/seas probable with VSBY restrictions.

Tuesday night . SCA conditions with strong NW winds.

Wednesday-Wednesday night . SCA conditions expected with a period of gale force conditions possible due to northwest winds gusting up to 35 kt. Seas 3 to 5 feet.

Thursday-Thursday night . SCA conditions may linger into Thursday morning, but are expected to diminish below advisory levels for the afternoon through the overnight.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 1 PM EST Tuesday for PAZ054-055. NJ . Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for NJZ007>010-012-015. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 1 PM EST Tuesday for NJZ001. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ450>453. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for ANZ430- 431-454-455.

Synopsis . O'Brien Near Term . Robertson Short Term . MPS Long Term . O'Brien Aviation . MPS/O'Brien/Robertson Marine . MPS/O'Brien/Robertson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 6 mi45 min WNW 22 G 26 43°F 44°F1016 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 17 mi33 min WNW 25 G 33 44°F 1016 hPa29°F
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 19 mi45 min 42°F 39°F1015.9 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 19 mi45 min WNW 24 G 29 43°F 1015.6 hPa
MHRN6 20 mi45 min W 18 G 22
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 22 mi45 min 42°F 44°F1015.7 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 33 mi45 min NNW 16 G 23 43°F 44°F1015.6 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 38 mi48 min W 18 G 27 43°F 32°F25°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 42 mi45 min WNW 7 G 13 42°F 40°F1017.4 hPa
44091 44 mi33 min 50°F6 ft
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 46 mi73 min WNW 29 G 35 46°F 50°F9 ft1013.8 hPa (+4.3)
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 46 mi73 min W 14 G 18 44°F 2 ft26°F

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ15 mi67 minW 17 G 2310.00 miFair41°F21°F45%1015.7 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY23 mi72 minW 18 G 2910.00 miPartly Cloudy and Breezy43°F24°F47%1014.9 hPa
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ24 mi72 minW 1610.00 miMostly Cloudy42°F21°F45%1014.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLM

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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SE5S5CalmS4SE6SW3NW5CalmCalmE3E8SE12S9S10SW14
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2 days agoCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE5E4CalmSE5E5CalmCalmCalmE7E4E5E4E5CalmSE7E6E5

Tide / Current Tables for Oceanic Bridge, Navesink River, New Jersey
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Oceanic Bridge
Click for Map
Sun -- 05:19 AM EST     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:14 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 10:48 AM EST     3.93 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:30 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:08 PM EST     -0.29 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:10 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:38 PM EST     3.18 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.92.31.50.80.2-0.100.823.13.83.93.73.12.21.30.5-0-0.3-0.10.81.82.63.1

Tide / Current Tables for The Narrows, Midchannel, New York Harbor, New York Current
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The Narrows
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:45 AM EST     -1.98 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 06:00 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:52 AM EST     2.05 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 10:14 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 12:07 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:22 PM EST     -2.29 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:29 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:08 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:09 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:25 PM EST     1.54 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.5-1.4-1.9-2-1.5-0.8-00.91.821.71.10.1-1-1.9-2.2-2.2-1.6-0.9-0.10.81.51.51.1

Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.