Friday, August14, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Rumson, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:05AMSunset 7:55PM Friday August 14, 2020 12:10 PM EDT (16:10 UTC) Moonrise 1:21AMMoonset 4:40PM Illumination 19% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 1132 Am Edt Fri Aug 14 2020
This afternoon..E winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft.
Tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Sat night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Chance of rain.
Sun..NE winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..NE winds around 10 kt. Seas around 1 ft. Chance of rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Mon night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 1132 Am Edt Fri Aug 14 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A persistent east to northeast flow will continue into this weekend as low pressure passes south of long island and high pressure builds into new england. The high may move east on Sunday, allowing a warm front to approach, followed by a cold front on Monday and high pressure on Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rumson , NJ
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location: 40.38, -74.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 141355 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 955 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020

SYNOPSIS. A frontal boundary will slowly sag southward through Saturday, before stalling to our south Sunday as high pressure builds across eastern Canada. Several waves of low pressure will move along this boundary, keeping unsettled weather across the area. The low pressure system that moves across the area late Sunday into Monday will push the frontal boundary offshore. This will allow another cold front to move across the area late Monday into Tuesday, which may stall to our south and offshore next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. 930 am update: Made some adjustments to PoPs today, with the influence of onshore/northeasterly surface flow starting to shunt precipitation generally south and east of the CWA. Showers continue to flirt with the southern New Jersey and southern Delaware coast this morning, but generally, they have been unable to penetrate inland. Radar trends suggest little change to this behavior is expected the rest of the morning. It appears the best chances for precipitation today will rely upon modest diabatic heating, with residual instability permitting the development of convection in Delmarva and vicinity this afternoon. Given gradually increasing instability, suspect that lightning will become somewhat more common with the precipitation, so expanded the mention of thunder this afternoon Valid portions of previous discussion below.

Low pressure was located off Cape Hatteras during the predawn hours, and it will move slowly to the northeast today. The circulation around the low is expected to continue drawing showers off the ocean and into eastern Maryland, Delaware and southern New Jersey. The showers are expected to remain generally south of the I-76 corridor.

A strengthening northeast flow is anticipated to bring increasingly stable air into our region from the northeast during the course of the day. As a result, the chance of showers is forecast to begin decreasing in eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey this afternoon. The higher chances for showers and scattered thunderstorms will be in Delaware and northeastern Maryland where marginal instability is forecast to pool during the afternoon hours.

High temperatures are expected to range from the upper 70s to the middle 80s in our region.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/. The surface low is expected to continue drifting northeastward tonight, to a point about 300 miles off the Delaware coast around daybreak on Saturday. The resulting northeast flow will draw stable and relatively dry air into our region overnight. While there is a lingering chance of showers in northeastern Maryland and Delaware, no precipitation is expected in eastern Pennsylvania or New Jersey.

A partly cloudy sky is anticipated for tonight with a northeast wind around 5 to 10 MPH. Low temperatures should be mostly in the 65 to 70 degree range.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Periods of unsettled weather are expected to affect portions of the area for much of the long term period with several waves of low pressure moving along frontal boundaries near the area.

For Saturday, the frontal boundary will continue to sag southward and we will be in between two surface low pressure systems that will move along the frontal boundary. Although we will be in between the two surface lows, southwest flow aloft will remain across the Mid- Atlantic region. Multiple short waves/vorticity impulses will move across the area within the southwest flow aloft, and with plenty of moisture across the area as evident of PW values of 1.5-2.0+ inches, there will remain chances of showers and thunderstorms. The rain chances are fairly small however, so Saturday may end up being a fairly dry day for many areas.

By Saturday night into Sunday, a stronger wave of low pressure is forecast to move along the stalled front, and pass near the area. The guidance still varies in respect to their placement of the actual low and the placement of the precipitation. There will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms for all areas, although southern portions of the area will be favored for heavier precipitation potential since they will be closer to the track of the low and have the higher PW values of over 2 inches.

Behind the low Sunday night, moisture will likely remain across the area, and patchy fog and drizzle may develop across portions of the area.

The low will track to the northeast and across New England Monday into Monday night, while a cold front approaches the area from the west. Rain chances lower some Monday into Monday night, although they will not disappear completely.

For Tuesday through Thursday, the front may stall to our south. Tuesday may be a mostly dry period as we will be lacking moisture and any short waves/vorticity impulses. This may change as we move into Wednesday and Thursday as several short waves/vorticity impulses will likely move across the area within the southwest flow aloft and combine with some enhanced moisture, leading to a chance of showers and thunderstorms for portions of the area.

AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today . VFR at RDG/ABE. Conditions improving to VFR by 15z at the Philly terminals. Sub-VFR may linger into the midday hours at ACY/MIV. There is a chance for some showers (especially at ACY/MIV) through early afternoon, but any impacts at the terminals will be minimal. Later this afternoon, some convection may develop in Delmarva. Cannot rule out impacts at ILG, but think better chances are south of there. Winds generally east or northeast 5 to 15 kt. Low confidence this morning; medium confidence this afternoon.

Tonight . Mainly VFR. Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Medium to high confidence.

Outlook .

Saturday . Generally VFR conditions. Showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon may temporarily lower conditions. East winds 5-10 knots, with gusts 15-20 knots.

Saturday night-Sunday . An extended period of MVFR or IFR conditions possible. A chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially Saturday night into Sunday. East-northeast winds 5-10 knots, with gusts 15-20 knots.

Sunday night . MVFR or IFR conditions likely continue with fog and drizzle possible. East-northeast winds 5-10 knots, becoming light overnight.

Monday . MVFR conditions likely early, with possible improvement during the day. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. North winds early, become west-northwest during the day 5-10 knots.

Monday night . Generally VFR conditions. Winds become light and variable overnight.

Tuesday . VFR conditions expected. Northwest winds 5-10 knots.

MARINE. As low pressure drifts slowly northeastward off the Middle Atlantic coast today and tonight, a northeast wind is forecast to continue along the coasts of Delaware and New Jersey. Wind speeds are expected to increase to 15 to 20 knots, with some gusts to 25 knots on the coastal waters of New Jersey tonight. Wave heights on our ocean waters are anticipated to build to 4 to 5 feet for tonight. We will begin a Small Craft Advisory for the water off New Jersey at 10:00 PM this evening. Small Craft Advisory conditions are not expected on the waters off Delaware or on the waters of Delaware Bay until around daybreak on Saturday.

Outlook . Saturday-Saturday night . Small Craft Advisory in effect as seas are expected to build to at least 5-6 feet due to increasing easterly flow. Winds could gust 25-30 knots Saturday into Saturday night.

Sunday-Sunday night . Small Craft Advisory conditions likely continue as winds and waves remain elevated.

Monday-Tuesday . Conditions likely lower below advisory levels through the day Monday and remain below advisory conditions through Tuesday.

Rip currents .

There is a low risk for the development of dangerous rip currents today. However, the risk could become locally moderate as a northeast wind around 15 MPH develops. Breaking waves should be 2 to 3 feet with a medium period swell from the southeast.

A moderate risk is anticipated for Saturday. The northeast wind is forecast to increase to 15 to 20 MPH with gusts of 25 MPH. Breaking waves of 3 to 4 feet are expected with a short to medium period wind wave from the northeast.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Onshore flow will increase some Friday and especially Saturday and persist through Sunday. Astronomical tides will be increasing into the weekend as well as the new moon occurring early next week. These factors will combine to increase the chance for minor coastal flooding with the Saturday and Sunday afternoon/evening high tides. Spotty minor coastal flooding is possible with the afternoon and evening high tide on Saturday. Minor coastal flooding to advisory levels is then more likely with the Sunday afternoon and evening high tide, especially from Atlantic City southward including the Delaware Atlantic coast and up Delaware Bay.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ450>453. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ454-455.

Synopsis . Robertson Near Term . CMS/Iovino Short Term . Iovino Long Term . Robertson Aviation . CMS/Iovino/Robertson Marine . Iovino/Robertson Tides/Coastal Flooding . Robertson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 17 mi41 min ENE 12 G 14 76°F1015.6 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 38 mi56 min ENE 9.7 G 14 76°F 70°F
44091 44 mi45 min 75°F2 ft
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 46 mi41 min ENE 14 G 18 76°F1015.4 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 46 mi86 min E 7.8 G 9.7 76°F 68°F

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ15 mi75 minNE 1210.00 miOvercast78°F73°F85%1016.5 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY23 mi80 minENE 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy85°F66°F53%1016.5 hPa
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ24 mi80 minENE 910.00 miMostly Cloudy83°F64°F55%1016.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLM

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5NE4NE5NE4NE4E4E4NE3E3E4NE3CalmNE3NE3NE5NE4NE5NE6N4NE6NE6NE11NE12E11
G17
1 day agoE14CalmS4CalmW4W4W3NE3CalmS3CalmS3S4S3CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmS4CalmN3N3Calm
2 days agoSE4S10W8SE4SE6SE7S8S4S3S5S5S6S5S4SW4S4SW4SW4CalmS4S5S5W43

Tide / Current Tables for Oceanic Bridge, Navesink River, New Jersey
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Oceanic Bridge
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:31 AM EDT     0.79 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:20 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:39 AM EDT     2.84 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:20 PM EDT     0.67 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:40 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:58 PM EDT     3.56 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.81.31.92.52.82.82.62.21.61.20.90.70.81.32.22.93.43.63.432.41.91.4

Tide / Current Tables for The Narrows, Midchannel, New York Harbor, New York Current
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The Narrows
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:19 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 01:32 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:32 AM EDT     0.99 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 06:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:31 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 09:52 AM EDT     -1.59 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 01:22 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:58 PM EDT     1.57 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 04:41 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:18 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:33 PM EDT     -1.80 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1-0.40.40.910.80.4-0.4-1-1.4-1.6-1.3-0.8-0.30.51.31.61.41.10.3-0.6-1.3-1.7-1.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.