Monday, September20, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Rumson, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:40AMSunset 6:57PM Monday September 20, 2021 12:16 AM EDT (04:16 UTC) Moonrise 7:14PMMoonset 6:03AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 1036 Pm Edt Sun Sep 19 2021
Tonight..S winds around 5 kt, becoming E after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue night..SE winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Wed night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Thu..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers likely.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers likely.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 1036 Pm Edt Sun Sep 19 2021
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure centered over eastern canada will continue to build across the northeast tonight and settle off the new england coast on Monday. The high will gradually give way to a slow moving cold front during the middle of the week, which passes through the area late Thursday into Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rumson , NJ
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location: 40.38, -74.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 200051 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 851 PM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will remain across the Northeast tonight, then build offshore Monday and Monday night then remain near the Canadian Maritimes through Tuesday. A cold front is expected to be across the area Thursday and Thursday night. High pressure may briefly affect the area early next weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/. Skies remain clear this evening and few changes were needed for the update. I decided to adjust the temps inland down a degree or two considering the dry airmass in place and the decent radiational cooling conditions in place.

High pressure currently located over southeastern Quebec will slowly translate east towards Maine with low level flow veering from the north to northeast. This psuedo onshore flow will eventually become orthogonal to the coastline tonight allowing warm moist air to ooze inland. The main question for tonight remains how quickly will this occur. The flow will likely be on the weaker side with the PBL over land decoupling. A stronger inland flow would support widespread fog and stratus developing. Several things that would prevent the fog development is the extremely dry low level air that is currently in place. Generally speaking, the first night of return flow usually isn't sufficient to produce widespread fog and stratus. NAM forecast soundings also support this solution. Low temperatures will also be highly dependent on the strength of the onshore flow with water temperatures in the 70 to 75 degree range. Mostly lower to mid 50s is expected.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. High pressure will be over the Gulf of Maine Monday with east/ southeast flow across the region. Not much warming will be in association though, with cool air continuing across the region. The biggest change will be the rise in dewpoints. Mid to upper 50 dewpoints appear likely Monday. High temperatures will again be in the mid to upper 70s. Dry weather will persist.

Monday afternoon, low level moisture profiles will finally start to respond to the onshore flow with stratus approaching the coastline. GFS and NAM forecast soundings both indicate rather robust cloud cover Tuesday afternoon into evening. This will make high temperatures for Tuesday rather difficult, with temperatures likely cooler Tuesday across the coastal zones thanks to the widespread stratus and accompanying onshore flow. On the other hand, low temperatures Wednesday will be much warmer, or in the low to mid 60s. Dry weather is again forecast for Tuesday.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. A return of unsettled weather is expected for the middle of the week, followed by quiet weather for the end of the week.

Models have come into better agreement with regards to the mid- week frontal system. The unfortunate things is they are indicating a fairly slow progression of the front. All guidance, GFS, NAM, ECMWF, Canadian, and others, have an area of low pressure developing near the Ohio River Valley Tuesday night into Wednesday along a cold front as it moves eastward. As the mid-level closes off Wednesday and drifts northward through the end of the week, the surface low meanders northward across the Great Lakes as well, which will slow the frontal progression across the east coast. All guidance is now indicating the cold front moving across the east coast Thursday into Thursday night. We have continued to shift the highest POPs to be centered more on the Thursday time period, with some higher POPS overlapping in Wednesday night and Thursday night. There could be some showers through the day Wednesday as moisture increases and several short wave/vorticity impulses move across the area in the southwest flow aloft ahead of the main system. There may also be some lingering precipitation Friday depending on how fast the front moves offshore. There is some instability forecast from Wednesday through Thursday evening, so there will be the potential for at least isolated thunderstorms. There is some enhanced shear values due to elevated mid-level winds, so depending on the timing of the convective activity, some stronger storms could develop, more likely on Thursday. Precipitable water values also increase during this period to at least 1.50-1.75 inches, so periods of moderate to heavy rainfall could become a concern.

Behind the cold front, drier weather is expected to return to the area as high pressure briefly builds in for late Friday into Saturday Cooler air will also move in behind the cold front, and temperatures may actually fall close to or slightly below normal by the end of the week into next weekend.

AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight . Starting VFR and generally staying VFR through the night. Some low clouds (with potential MVFR ceilings) are possible after 06Z, primarily at KMIV and KACY. Winds will settle out of the east or northeast with speeds generally 5 kts or less. High confidence on the overall pattern, but low confidence on exactly where the potential for MVFR ceilings develop.

Tomorrow . Starting off mainly VFR with scattered MVFR ceilings, primarily at KMIV and KACY . then VFR. Winds will veer east or southeast generally in the 5 to 10 kt range. Moderate confidence on the overall pattern, but low confidence on exactly where the potential for MVFR ceilings develop.

Outlook .

Monday night . VFR initially, then sub-VFR in fog/stratus. E winds 5 kts or less. Moderate confidence.

Tuesday . After some morning sub-VFR conditions . becoming VFR. SE winds 5-10 kts. Moderate confidence.

Tuesday night . VFR initially, then sub-VFR possible in fog/stratus. E winds 5 kts or less. Moderate confidence.

Wednesday through Wednesday night . Some morning sub-VFR in fog /stratus, then mainly VFR with scattered SHRAs possible in the afternoon. SHRAs becoming likely Wednesday night with sub-VFR conditions. SE winds 10-15 kts, with gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon. Low confidence.

Thursday and Thursday night . SHRAs likely with sub-VFR conditions. TSRA possible in the afternoon/evening. SE winds 10-20 kts. Low confidence.

Friday . Mainly VFR. Northwest winds 10 to 15 kts. Moderate confidence.

MARINE. Seas have been just around or below 5 feet at 44091 this afternoon with a slow downward trend observed. Therefore, have held back on issuing a Small Craft Advisory for now. Tomorrow, seas will be between 3 and 5 feet with winds between 15 and 20 kts. Surface high pressure currently over southeastern Quebec will slowly translate towards the Gulf of Maine by Monday afternoon with winds veering from the east. Sub SCA criteria expected through Tuesday.

Outlook .

Wednesday-Friday . Although winds may remain below advisory levels through the period, seas could increase to 5 feet or higher by Wednesday night and continue into Friday.

Rip currents . The CFW for High rip current risk has expired. Rough conditions were observed earlier today for Ocean and Monmouth counties. We have gone with a MODERATE risk for Monday attm. The swells will be about the same (or maybe slightly less) as today and the full moon is tomorrow evening. Both of these factors should contribute to some enhanced rips.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Spotty minor tidal flooding is possible centered around the highest astronomical tides through Monday. The combination of increased swells from Odette, higher astronomical tides with the full moon on Monday, and developing onshore flow will all contribute to this. The highest astronomical tides, and thus the higher risk for spotty minor flooding, will be the evening/overnight high tides. At this point, tidal levels just should fall just shy of advisory criteria. However, if the onshore flow develops faster than what is currently expected, there could be an increased risk for widespread minor flooding, especially with the evening/night high tide tonight.

Notably, forecasts have increased slightly for portions of the Atlantic coast in southern New Jersey and Delaware for the evening/night high tide tonight, and there is a chance an advisory may be required for these areas as well as adjacent portions of Delaware Bay during this time frame.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . None.

Synopsis . Robertson Near Term . Haines/PO Short Term . Haines Long Term . Robertson Aviation . Kruzdlo/PO Marine . Haines/Robertson/PO Tides/Coastal Flooding . WFO PHI


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 6 mi46 min SSE 2.9 G 4.1 68°F 73°F1024.4 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 17 mi26 min SSE 5.8 G 5.8 72°F3 ft1023.4 hPa
BGNN6 19 mi46 min 66°F 75°F1024.1 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 19 mi46 min SW 2.9 G 4.1 70°F 1024 hPa
MHRN6 20 mi46 min SSW 4.1 G 4.1
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 22 mi46 min 69°F 72°F1024.4 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 33 mi46 min ESE 2.9 G 2.9 66°F 1025 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 38 mi31 min NNE 7.8 G 12 68°F 59°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 42 mi46 min E 1 G 1.9 63°F 71°F1024.4 hPa
44091 44 mi20 min 72°F3 ft
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 46 mi26 min 1.9 G 1.9 71°F3 ft1023.7 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 46 mi31 min NNE 7.8 G 9.7 68°F 58°F

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ15 mi20 minN 010.00 miFair60°F59°F96%1024.7 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY23 mi25 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds66°F59°F78%1024.3 hPa
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ24 mi25 minN 510.00 miA Few Clouds67°F50°F55%1024.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLM

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW7NW4NW5NW4NW4N3NW4NW6N7N11N13
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N8N9N7NE6E6SE4SE4CalmSE3CalmCalm
1 day agoNE7NE4NE4N3NW4NW3CalmNW3NW7NW8NW7NW7NW7NW9N6W6W4W4S4S6CalmW4NW3NW6
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Tide / Current Tables for Oceanic Bridge, Navesink River, New Jersey
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Oceanic Bridge
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Mon -- 03:47 AM EDT     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:03 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:20 AM EDT     3.90 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:05 PM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:13 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:54 PM EDT     Full Moon
Mon -- 09:36 PM EDT     4.15 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.31.40.6-0-0.20.31.32.43.33.93.83.32.61.810.300.31.22.33.344.13.7

Tide / Current Tables for The Narrows, Midchannel, New York Harbor, New York Current
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The Narrows
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:56 AM EDT     -2.21 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 04:30 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:03 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:18 AM EDT     1.88 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:00 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:17 PM EDT     -2.17 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 04:48 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:13 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:34 PM EDT     1.96 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 07:54 PM EDT     Full Moon
Mon -- 10:23 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-2-2.2-2-1.5-0.60.61.51.91.81.10-1-1.7-2.1-2-1.6-0.90.31.41.91.91.50.4-0.6

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