Wednesday, August12, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Leonardo, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:03AMSunset 7:58PM Wednesday August 12, 2020 8:26 PM EDT (00:26 UTC) Moonrise 12:09AMMoonset 2:38PM Illumination 34% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 623 Pm Edt Wed Aug 12 2020
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt, diminishing to around 5 kt late this evening and early morning, then becoming ne late. Seas 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers and tstms after midnight. Chance of showers and slight chance of tstms late.
Thu..E winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Thu night..SE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the evening.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Fri night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight.
Sat..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers.
Sun night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers.
Mon..E winds around 5 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..S winds around 5 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 623 Pm Edt Wed Aug 12 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A slow moving cold front will sit near the waters through Thursday. The front will then pass south Thursday night and then stall to the south Friday as high pressure builds to the north. The front returns as a warm front Sunday. A cold front is expected through the waters Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Leonardo, NJ
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location: 40.42, -74.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 130022 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 822 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will remain stalled over our area through at least Friday. Several areas of low pressure will develop and track along this front through the weekend, while high pressure will build to our north. The boundary may return to our area Sunday into early next week as a low moves through Canada while a second low forms along the boundary to our south.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/. The showers and thunderstorms that produced heavy rain have ended, so will go ahead and cancel the Flash Flood Watch that was in effect until 11 pm.

Some shortwave energy will begin approaching from the southwest later in the night, so some showers or an isolated thunderstorm are possible, especially heading towards daybreak. And with so much moisture, cannot rule out general pop up showers just about anywhere. The atmosphere will be pretty worked over from convection today. Will also once again be watching for patchy fog and low stratus development. Despite potential for higher level cloudiness, the plentiful low level moisture and nearly calm winds should favor another round of this tonight, and have added that mention into the grids. Otherwise, warm and muggy once again with lows mainly in the low 70s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/. A similar story synoptically on Thursday as on Wednesday as a stalled frontal boundary remains over the area, making little if any southeastward progress. Another unsettled day is likely. Several questions with regard to the extent of convection, however. Cloud cover is likely to be much greater on Thursday compared to Wednesday morning, and will keep highs mainly in the low to mid 80s. Morning fog and low clouds may also take an extra hour or two to lift versus prior days. So instability will be considerably lower. In addition, the atmosphere may remain somewhat worked over from the prior day's activity. So these are negatives for convection. However, we also have a fairly robust, convectively enhanced shortwave approaching from the southwest on Thursday. Lift is likely to be better than on Wednesday, and the approaching shortwave will help increase deep layer shear up from near zero to around 20 to 25 kt along and south of the front. The one thing not in question is moisture, which if anything will be greater than on Wednesday with PWATs mainly above 2 inches across the area.

So putting it all together, another day where at least scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely. While possible over most of the region, they should mainly favor the areas that saw the greatest coverage on Wednesday. Despite the improved lift and shear, the weaker instability will likely be a major hindrance to severe weather, and expect that threat to be less than on Wednesday. Storm coverage in general should be at least somewhat lower as well. However, with the rich moisture and deep warm cloud layers, heavy rain will once again be a concern. This will be especially true if the same areas receiving recent heavy rains get hit yet again. Not confident enough in storm coverage at this point to extend the Flash Flood Watch, but this will need to be reevaluated.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Synoptic Overview .

The start of the extended will feature a a pair of H5 ridges centered over the SW and SE US, while to the north of these features a succession of shortwave ridges and troughs will be passing through the Central/Northern US and Southern Canada. For our area the most impactful shortwave is currently centered near Arkansas/Missouri. This wave will only very slowly progress eastward over the next few days, while a fairly amplified (but progressive) ridge develops to its north. Although the wave itself may not reach our area until Sunday/early next week numerous vort maxes will eject out ahead of it into our area (the most potent likely impacting us on Thursday). A more amplified trough will push the Canadian ridge eastward Sunday into Monday, and this trough should ultimately absorb the aforementioned southern shortwave. By early next week the overall synoptic pattern over the US will then become characterized by an amplified ridge over the western US and a longwave trough over the eastern US, with various shortwaves pivoting SEwrd around the base of the larger trough towards our area.

At the surface the cold front from today will only very slowly progress southward with its thermal/moisture gradients washing out somewhat over the first few days of the long term. Guidance has become more bullish on developing a stronger frontal low south of our area on Friday, and that low combined with the High over eastern Canada will promote a somewhat drier E-NE flow Friday into Saturday. By early next week another frontal low will form to our south and begin to phase with a stronger low in Canada. It is possible the boundary returns northward towards our area in this time period and there could also be a cold frontal passage associated with the northern low, but details remain nebulous.

Dailies .

Friday/Saturday . The current suite of guidance paints a relatively drier picture for this period as High Pressure builds to our north, and the boundary is pushed south. This is a somewhat different evolution than guidance had been depicting the past couple nights so only partially cut PoPs with this package, but it is possible they can be decreased further if guidance continues coming in with this drier solution. Generally expect temperatures to stay on the mild side given the prevailing onshore flow and cloud cover, with highs generally in the low to possibly mid 80s. Although dewpoints will almost certainly come down relative to Wed/Thursday just how much is still a question. Went with a blend this forecast package, however some of the drier guidance does hint at dewpoints dropping into the 50s for the northern portion of our area on Saturday.

Sunday-Tuesday . Things will likely get more active in this period as the High to our north moves away and we potentially feel the influence of both a frontal low to our south and a northern branch low passing over Canada. Given the uncertainty of how/when these features would interact and any frontal passages went with a fairly middle of the road approach for PoPs (generally mid-range Chc) for Sunday and Monday. Temps should run near or just below climo through the period. It is possible a more substantial cold front with more notable postfrontal drying will progress through our area on Tuesday but there is considerable spread within the guidance on this aspect.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight . Mainly VFR initially. Patchy fog and/or low stratus development is likely again tonight, and have reflected that in the TAFs. Areas of IFR conditions are likely as well. Winds light and variable or calm. Moderate confidence, except low confidence in how widespread fog and low stratus will be.

Thursday . Prevailing VFR, however sub-VFR fog or low stratus could linger through about 14z. SHRA/TSRA are also possible again on Thursday, especially near and southeast of PHL. Winds mainly E at around 5 kt, but may be light and variable or calm at times. Moderate confidence.

Outlook .

Friday and Saturday . Mostly VFR although some storms will be possible (mostly on Friday), also can't rule out some restrictions in lower clouds in the morning. East-northeast winds 5-10kts on Friday, with easterly winds around 10 kts on Saturday. Moderate confidence.

Sunday . A chance of showers of thunderstorms in the afternoon. East-southeast winds 5-10kts. Moderate confidence.

MARINE. Through Thursday . Sub-SCA conditions are expected with seas less than 3 ft. Winds mainly from the S or SW, then becoming SE on Thursday, with speeds around 10 kt. Areas of fog are possible overnight. Scattered tstms are possible on Thursday with locally higher winds and seas.

Outlook .

Friday through Sunday . An increasing onshore flow and building seas later Friday may require a SCA by Friday night with potential SCA conditions continuing through Sunday. Thunderstorms are possible (primarily on Friday), which could produce locally higher winds and waves.

Rip Currents .

There is a low risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents Thursday and Friday. Breaking waves are forecast to be less than 2 feet with a medium period swell from the southeast.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . None.

Synopsis . Carr Near Term . MPS/O'Brien Short Term . O'Brien Long Term . Carr Aviation . Carr/O'Brien Marine . Carr/O'Brien


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 4 mi56 min W 8 G 11 80°F 81°F1017.2 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 16 mi56 min WSW 6 G 7 82°F 1016.4 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 16 mi56 min 82°F 80°F1016.8 hPa
MHRN6 17 mi56 min SW 6 G 8
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 18 mi36 min SSW 3.9 G 5.8 74°F1 ft1016.4 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 19 mi56 min 80°F 78°F1016.8 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 31 mi56 min S 1.9 G 4.1 81°F 1017 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 36 mi71 min S 1.9 G 1.9 79°F 74°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 43 mi56 min SSW 4.1 G 5.1 77°F 80°F1017.3 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 44 mi131 min WSW 5.8 G 5.8 80°F 73°F
44091 47 mi60 min 75°F2 ft
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 48 mi46 min SSW 7.8 G 9.7 76°F1016.7 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ17 mi30 minNE 310.00 miFair73°F0°F%1017.5 hPa
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ21 mi35 minSSW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy80°F70°F71%1016.4 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY22 mi35 minSW 610.00 miMostly Cloudy80°F71°F74%1016.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLM

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3S5S5S6S5S4SW4S4SW4SW4CalmS4S5S5W43E14CalmS4CalmW4W4W3NE3
1 day agoS6S5S7SW5SW6SW5S5S6SW3S4S5S5S5S4S6S7SE4S10W8SE4SE6SE7S8S4
2 days agoS5S5SW5SW4SW4SW4SW4SW5SW4SW5SW5SW5SW7SW3W4S3S6SE6S9S10S7SE9S6S6

Tide / Current Tables for Atlantic Highlands, New Jersey
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Atlantic Highlands
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:08 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:23 AM EDT     4.01 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:26 AM EDT     1.05 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:38 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 02:46 PM EDT     4.63 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:39 PM EDT     1.30 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.23.743.93.42.61.81.31.11.11.52.43.34.14.54.64.33.62.82.21.71.41.31.7

Tide / Current Tables for The Narrows, Midchannel, New York Harbor, New York Current (2)
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The Narrows
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:08 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:39 AM EDT     1.04 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 04:36 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:06 AM EDT     -1.45 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 11:42 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:04 PM EDT     1.40 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 02:39 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:24 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:49 PM EDT     -1.53 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.910.80.4-0.3-0.9-1.3-1.4-1.3-0.9-0.40.211.41.30.90.3-0.5-1-1.4-1.5-1.3-0.9

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.