Monday, December16, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
South River, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 4:33PM Monday December 16, 2019 2:52 AM EST (07:52 UTC) Moonrise 10:22PMMoonset 11:59AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 1043 Pm Est Sun Dec 15 2019
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening.
Tue..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of rain in the evening.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 1043 Pm Est Sun Dec 15 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure will briefly build over the waters overnight, then drift offshore on Monday. Low pressure will approach later Monday and impacts the region Monday night and Tuesday before moving northeast Tuesday night into Wednesday. A cold front will approach on Wednesday and move across Wednesday night, followed by high pressure Thursday through Friday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South River , NJ
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location: 40.42, -74.36     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 160626 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 126 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

SYNOPSIS. A warm front will slowly lift into the area Monday. A wave of low pressure tracking along the warm front will move across the area on Tuesday before departing Tuesday night. An Arctic cold front will move through the region on Wednesday. High pressure is expected to build in for the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/. A frontogenesis band of precipitation to our southwest has been persistent through the evening hours. Despite the fact that the surface high will be near/over our region overnight, I am concerned that the mesoscale forcing will be enough with this band that we will see snow arrive in far northern Delmarva as early as 4 to 6 AM. Consequently, we have expanded the winter weather advisory to include Cecil County MD and New Castle County DE, as anything that comes in that early will be all snow.

Have also expanded the advisory into portions of southwest NJ (more on that in the short term section below).

In addition to the changes in the winter weather advisory, also adjusted PoPs to start earlier in northern Delmarva, and adjusted temperatures and dew points to reflect current trends. For most of the region from Philly northward, fair weather should continue for most, if not all of the night.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. With the late evening update, expanded the mention of sleet and snow across southwestern NJ. Consequently, Salem up to northwestern Burlington County was added in to the Advisory. Though these areas will only have very light snow accumulations, my concern is that sleet on top of snow will create very slippery conditions, which could coincide with the tail end of the morning commute. Consequently, am concerned that even with light snow amounts, there will be impacts to travel.

Models show that it will take time for the heavier frontogenesis band to lift north (and should be weakening as it does so. Consequently, the highest QPF should be over Delmarva and south Jersey, and results in less QPF for the southern Poconos, lehigh Valley, and far northern New Jersey, and slightly higher amounts for southern New Jersey and Delmarva. For the southern Poconos, this also results in slightly lower forecast snow amounts, now generally on the order of 1-2 inches for Monday and Monday night.

Precip ramps up Monday night and Tuesday as the low lifts to the north, and passes over Delmarva and southern New Jersey by Tuesday afternoon.

In terms of sensible weather/p-type, precip should change to all rain across southern New Jersey, portions of southeast Pennsylvania, and Delmarva by late Monday afternoon, and should continue as rain through the duration of the event into Tuesday evening as 1000-500 mb thicknesses rise to above 550 dam and 850 mb temps will be above +6C. Moderate to locally heavy rain is possible with the passage of the low late Monday night through Tuesday afternoon. Over an inch of liquid equivalent is possible during the duration of the event.

For areas mainly along and north of the Fall Line, 850 mb temps gradually warm to above freezing, but it will take some time for surface temps to rise above freezing. As a result, a prolonged period of sleet and freezing rain, eventually changing to rain and freezing rain should persist across those areas Monday night through Tuesday morning, then precip changes to plain rain.

For the southern Poconos, the wintry weather continues through Tuesday afternoon.

Will go ahead and issue a Winter Weather Advisory for areas mainly along and north and west of I-95 from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning, and for areas north of I-80 until Tuesday afternoon.

Low pressure departs Tuesday evening and moves out to sea Tuesday night. Behind the departing low, a surge of colder air filters into the region as a cold front works its way to the south and east. There may be some wintry precip, especially up north, with the cold frontal passage, but conditions should dry out after midnight Tuesday night.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Overview .

A fairly progressive pattern for the middle and latter part of the week. At upper levels, a sharp shortwave trough will bring a shot of cold air to the region for the midweek period. This could be accompanied by scattered snow squalls in parts of the area. Heading later into the week, there will be a gradual trend for the building of extensive ridging over the central US, likely leading to significant warm anomalies there over the next week or two. However, current indications are that at least through this period, the prevailing ridge axis location will be too far west for those large warm anomalies to work into the Northeast and mid-Atlantic. A continued tendency for cold surface high pressure to be centered to our north will also make it difficult for us to see more than a tempered and gradual warm-up even as ridging to our west expands further towards the weekend. There are also hints of a coastal storm developing next weekend, but this remains highly uncertain.

Dailies .

Wednesday-Wednesday night . An Arctic shortwave and associated surface low and cold front will dive southeast into New England on Wednesday. Very robust shortwave with 500mb height anomalies in the range of -2 to -2.5 SD in the base of the trough. 850mb temperature anomalies as low as -20C in the heart of this trough. So this is going to bring quite a cold blast to the Northeast and mid-Atlantic for midweek. The main question for Wednesday is whether this Arctic blast will be preceded by snow squalls. This will largely depend on trough positioning. Overall, looks to be a favorable, potentially very favorable, setup for snow squalls in areas that experience the strongest forcing and lift from the trough and front. The concern locally has been whether we may be too far south to experience the more favorable dynamics. In those dynamically favored areas, most guidance indicates an environment of steep low level lapse rates, non-zero CAPE (~25-75J/kg), and high relative humidities (>80%) in the boundary layer and snow growth zone. These are all the things one would look for to see snow squalls, and most model Snow Squall Parameter values are also quite high ahead of the front. I fully expect intense snow squalls in parts of the Northeast on Wednesday, and currently think northern NJ and the Poconos are probably fair game for this potential, but am less confident further south. I bumped PoPs up to chance across the far northwest and expanded slight chance PoPs a little further southeast to account for this. We will continue to watch this over the next couple days. Overnight, behind the front, plunging temperatures as Arctic air pours into the region. Teens and low 20s will be common for lows with wind chill values in the single digits. Did not want to take temps quite a low as some of the colder guidance due to the wind allowing for continued mixing, but the wind chills will make it feel colder.

Thursday-Friday . High pressure in control behind the Arctic front, so it should be dry, but cold. In particular, the daytime period on Thursday looks very cold. Many areas will fail to get out of the 20s during the day, with some teens for highs in the far north. Thursday night looks like an excellent radiational cooling setup as high pressure crests overhead, so even with some warming temperatures aloft I expect it to be about as cold as Wednesday night, though without much wind it will not feel quite as cold. Some moderation by Friday as heights rise and 850mb temperatures warm considerably. Most areas should add about 10 degrees to their Thursday highs, though that still leaves us below average.

Next weekend . Lots of uncertainty as usual this far in advance. Global model guidance, especially the GFS and EC, had been showing potential for the development of a phased coastal storm over the weekend. They have backed off that idea on their latest runs due to keeping the northern and southern streams separate. We have many days to watch this and there will probably be more large swings in the guidance in the days ahead. This period should start to come into better focus towards the middle of the week as the storm from the early part of this week moves away.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Overnight . VFR conditions are expected overnight with increasing mid level clouds. Initial bands of precipitation could get as far north as Wilmington between 10 and 12Z, and if they do, then reductions to MVFR conditions are possible at that terminal. Winds will become light and variable overnight. Moderate confidence.

Monday . VFR conditions will deteriorate to MVFR through the morning and eventually IFR for much of the region by the afternoon as precipitation moves in. Precipitation is expected to start as mostly light snow but should mix with sleet between 15 and 20Z, before changing over to rain or freezing rain 21Z or later. The TAF sites from the I-95 corridor and points south should become all rain by the evening. Light and variable winds early will become northeast to east 5-10 knots. Moderate confidence in the overall trend, but low confidence in the details especially with the timing of the transitions.

Monday night . IFR or lower will predominate with rain for the I-95 TAF sites and points south and a mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain farther north and west for KRDG and KABE. Winds mainly E/NE 5-10 knots.

Outlook .

Tuesday . Sub-VFR in rain, except freezing rain possible at KABE. NE winds become NW around 10 knots.

Tuesday night . Improving conditions through the night. NW winds 5-10 knots with some higher gusts of 15-20 knots possible.

Wednesday-Wednesday night . Mainly VFR. Slight chance of an afternoon or evening snow shower or squall with brief sub-VFR conditions especially north of TTN. West-northwest wind of 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 30 kt possible, diminishing overnight. Moderate confidence.

Thursday-Friday . VFR. Light northwest winds becoming light and variable on Friday. High confidence.

MARINE. Winds and seas continue to diminish with conditions below Small Craft Advisory levels at this hour. Winds and seas should remain below SCA conditions through Monday and Monday night. There will, however be some rain around for Monday and Monday night and this could lead to visibility restrictions.

Outlook .

Tuesday . SCA winds/seas probable with VSBY restrictions.

Tuesday night . SCA conditions with strong NW winds.

Wednesday-Wednesday night . SCA conditions expected with a period of gale force conditions possible due to northwest winds gusting up to 35 kt. Seas 3 to 5 feet.

Thursday-Thursday night . SCA conditions may linger into Thursday morning, but are expected to diminish below advisory levels for the afternoon through the overnight.

Friday . Sub SCA conditions expected.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Tuesday for PAZ060>062-103>106. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Tuesday for PAZ054-055. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Tuesday for PAZ070-071. Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM early this morning to 7 AM EST Tuesday for PAZ101-102. NJ . Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Tuesday for NJZ007>010-012-015. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Tuesday for NJZ001. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Tuesday for NJZ016>019. DE . Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM early this morning to 10 PM EST this evening for DEZ001. MD . Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM early this morning to 10 PM EST this evening for MDZ008. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST early this morning for ANZ450-451.

Synopsis . Fitzsimmons Near Term . Johnson/Robertson Short Term . Johnson/MPS Long Term . O'Brien Aviation . Fitzsimmons Marine . Fitzsimmons


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 19 mi53 min 37°F 43°F1022.9 hPa (+1.4)
MHRN6 19 mi53 min NW 7 G 8.9
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 19 mi53 min NW 12 G 15 37°F 43°F1023.2 hPa (+1.5)
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 23 mi53 min NNW 9.9 G 16 37°F 1022.8 hPa (+1.7)
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 27 mi53 min 36°F 42°F1023 hPa (+1.8)
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 29 mi53 min WNW 5.1 G 7 37°F 40°F1023.9 hPa (+1.1)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 35 mi33 min NW 18 G 23 39°F 1023.3 hPa23°F
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 36 mi77 min WNW 2.9 G 7 37°F 40°F1022.7 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 42 mi53 min N 13 G 15 36°F 43°F1023.3 hPa (+1.6)
44022 - Execution Rocks 46 mi38 min WNW 9.7 G 16 35°F 32°F19°F
BDSP1 49 mi53 min 37°F 1023.9 hPa (+0.9)

Wind History for Bergen Point West Reach, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ21 mi57 minW 410.00 miFair34°F21°F59%1023.4 hPa
Somerville, Somerset Airport, NJ22 mi60 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy33°F23°F66%1022.3 hPa
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ22 mi62 minNW 1010.00 miPartly Cloudy36°F18°F48%1022.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLM

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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1 day agoS5CalmS4SE6SW3NW5CalmCalmE3E8SE12S9S10SW14
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2 days agoE4CalmSE5E5CalmCalmCalmE7E4E5E4E5CalmSE7E6E5NE8NE8E10E9
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Tide / Current Tables for Old Bridge, South River, New Jersey
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Old Bridge
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Mon -- 05:21 AM EST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:58 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 11:19 AM EST     6.27 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:32 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:12 PM EST     -0.36 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:22 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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54.22.91.60.5-00.11.22.94.55.76.26.15.342.41.10.1-0.3-0.112.53.94.8

Tide / Current Tables for Bayonne Bridge, Kill van Kull, New York Current
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Bayonne Bridge
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:14 AM EST     -1.48 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:01 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:36 AM EST     2.15 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:40 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:58 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 02:32 PM EST     -1.66 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 04:30 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:42 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:11 PM EST     1.84 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 09:20 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:41 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.7-1.2-1.5-1.3-0.8-0122.11.30.5-0.2-0.8-1.3-1.6-1.6-1.2-0.50.31.21.81.60.90.4

Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.