Wednesday, February24, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
South River, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:36AMSunset 5:44PM Wednesday February 24, 2021 12:45 PM EST (17:45 UTC) Moonrise 3:44PMMoonset 6:13AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 954 Am Est Wed Feb 24 2021
.small craft advisory in effect from 4 pm est this afternoon through late tonight...
Today..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Thu night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of snow after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of rain.
ANZ300 954 Am Est Wed Feb 24 2021
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure gives way to a frontal system that moves through the area tonight. High pressure then returns to end the week. Low pressure and its associated frontal system impacts the waters Saturday, with another frontal system moving through Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South River , NJ
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location: 40.42, -74.36     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 241731 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1231 PM EST Wed Feb 24 2021

SYNOPSIS. A weak cold front will cross the region this evening. High pressure will build across the Mid Atlantic Thursday through Friday before moving offshore Friday evening. Another cold front will move through the area later Saturday into Sunday, followed by weak high pressure for Sunday. Another system will move through the region on Monday followed by a return to high pressure on Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 1230 PM, the distinct low-level inversion on the 12z Sterling/Dulles, VA RAOB has likely rapidly dissipated as the boundary layer continues to warm and mixing gradually deepens. Given the warmth not to far above the ground on that RAOB, the temperatures have rapidly climbed this morning across much of the area. This is most notable though across the coastal plain where little to no snow cover remains. As a result, made some adjustments to the hourly temperature grids to catch them up to the current observations. Mainly just some tweaks were made to the afternoon high temperatures. The batch of cirrus that was over much of the area has thinned and is shifting to our northeast now. Looks like quite a bit of sunshine for much of the region this afternoon along with mild temperatures.

Otherwise, surface high pressure over the Southeast U.S. and this extends up most of the Eastern Seaboard. This high will move offshore later today and as low pressure moves through the Great Lakes and into eastern Canada, a trailing cold front will approach late this afternoon and pass through the region tonight. Meanwhile, a 45-55 knot low-level jet between 925-850 mb will pass through the region ahead of the cold front.

In terms of sensible weather, dry conditions with a partly to mostly sunny sky will be in place for most of the day. Return flow sets up behind the departing high, and southerly flow will increase throughout the day as the pressure gradient tightens between the offshore high and the approach of the cold front.

Strong warm air advection will be underway. Models tend to not be warm enough in early season warm events starting around this time of the year. Looked at a blend of NBM/SuperBlend, but went ahead and mixed down NAM 925 mb temperatures and blended with SuperBlend. That matched up with the 90th percentile NBM max temperatures. Temperatures will be cooler along the coasts where the southerly wind is more perpendicular to the coastlines, as sea surface temps are in the upper 30s to low 40s.

South to southwest winds will increase to around 15 mph with 20-30 mph gusts this afternoon. With this strong mixing, think surface dew points will be lower than guidance is currently indicating, and will go with surface dew points in the low 30s.

With the approach and passage of the cold front, isolated to scattered showers will develop late this afternoon and early this evening, mainly over the southern Poconos, northwest New Jersey, and the Lehigh Valley. QPF will be minimal, given limited moisture and weak forcing for ascent.

Winds shift to the west this evening, and then to the northwest late tonight behind the passage of the cold front. Winds should diminish initially, then increase back up to around 15 mph with 20- 25 mph gusts as cold air advection will be underway. Temperatures drop mainly into the 30s late tonight.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. High pressure builds across the midwestern states on Thursday and moves across our forecast area on Friday, shifting offshore later Friday. This high will keep our weather quiet and we should have a couple of nice late winter days with seasonably warm temperatures. Thursday will be slightly warmer than Friday but maybe by only a degree or two. Friday is slightly cooler due to the upper trough that crosses through region and a shift to a more easterly flow at the surface on the backside of the high as it shifts offshore. There is limited moisture as the upper trough moves through Friday night and we will mostly see an increase in cloud cover. Even with that said, the low levels moisten up nicely in the southerly flow and can't rule out a few light showers starting to creep into the area Friday night, though it mostly looks to hold off until Saturday. Still expect temperatures to rise well into the 40s on both days, with mid/upper 30s across the southern Poconos and portions of northwest New Jersey and some lower 50s across southern Delaware and nearby areas of Maryland. Overnight lows will be in the teens to near 30 across the region on Thursday night. As we see some WAA develop and with increasing clouds later on Friday, overnight temps should remain warmer and remain in the 20s to 30s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Models continue to indicate that a weak surface low will move along the Mid-Atlantic coast on Saturday, passing off our coast or even dissipating as it moves northwards Saturday night. Meanwhile, another low pressure system will cross through the Great Lakes and across eastern Canada Saturday night into Sunday with its cold front dropping down into our area late Saturday night. These features will bring a mix of rain/snow to the area for Saturday. Strong WAA on Saturday will allow for temperatures to rise into the 40s to 50s across the region and with that in mind it looks like we will see a mostly rain event. Precipitation will taper off late Saturday night into Sunday.

Weak high pressure builds in for Sunday although there is some possibility of another weak low pressure system passing off our coast. The day starts off day though we see some light precipitation start to works its way back in by mid day, especially across the southern areas. Again, with such warm air in place it should be plain rain should anything fall during he day on Sunday. The next system starts to push towards the region and steadier precipitation returns late Sunday into Monday. This looks like another mostly rain event across the forecast area, though a mix is possible especially on the backside of the front if the cold air arrives before the precipitation cuts off. Continued warmth is expected with highs remaining in the 40s to 50s for Sunday and Monday.

Temperatures look to return closer to normal on Tuesday as high pressure starts to build in from the west. Some differences in the models as to how strong the cold air advection and how strong the upper low/trough will be and therefore they struggle this far out to determine how much cold air will arrive and just what the surface temps will be on Tuesday. Temperatures will feel much colder on Tuesday even through they will be more seasonable but will be on average around 10 degrees colder than the day before. Additionally, with a strong pressure gradient between the departing low and the building high, it will be windy which will only enhance how cold it really feels. Tuesday should be mostly dry as the high builds in but with potentially strong CAA in place we may need to keep an eye on the potential for any lake effect streamers to reach the forecast area.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

This afternoon . VFR. South to southwest winds 5-10 knots increasing to 10-15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Moderate confidence.

Tonight . VFR. An isolated rain shower possible in the vicinity of RDG/ABE in the evening, however conditions should remain VFR if it were to occur. Southwest winds 10-15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots diminishing some during the evening, become west and then northwest overnight and towards daybreak and increase some again. A low-level jet of 40-50 knots at 2000 feet moves through this evening, therefore low-level wind shear is included in the TAFs. Moderate confidence.

Thursday . VFR. Northwest winds 10-15 knots with some gusts to 20 knots, diminishing some during the afternoon. Moderate confidence.

Outlook .

Friday . VFR conditions expected. Light and variable winds around 5 knots. Moderate confidence.

Saturday . Mainly MVFR or lower expected as precipitation moves into the area. Southeast winds around 5 to 10 knots becoming south and then southwest late. Moderate confidence.

Sunday . MVFR conditions early becoming VFR. Southwest winds around 5 knots. Low confidence.

MARINE. Winds will ramp up this afternoon and tonight with the approach and passage of a cold front, and then with strong CAA underway tonight, gusty winds continue. SCA remains in effect for the ocean from this afternoon through late tonight and into Thursday morning. Winds shift from the S-SW today to the W this evening, then to the NW late tonight.

A few gale gusts are possible on the northern NJ ocean waters this evening.

SCA remains in effect for Delaware bay from this afternoon through tonight.

Outlook .

Thursday through Friday . SCA conditions through around 15Z Thursday and then sub-SCA conditions expected. Northwest winds around 15 to 20 knots, becoming north to northeast around 10 to 15 knots on Friday. Seas 2 to 4 feet on Thursday, becoming 1 to 3 feet on Friday.

Saturday through Sunday . Southeast winds around 10 to 15 knots on Saturday, becoming southerly on Sunday. Seas build on Saturday from 1 to 3 feet to 4 to 6 feet. Seas subside on Sunday. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for ANZ450>455. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ430-431.

Synopsis . Meola Near Term . Gorse/MPS Short Term . Meola Long Term . Meola Aviation . Gorse/Meola/MPS Marine . Meola/MPS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 19 mi51 min 50°F 37°F1016.8 hPa
MHRN6 19 mi51 min SW 7 G 12
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 19 mi51 min W 4.1 G 6 46°F 1018.3 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 23 mi51 min WSW 11 G 17 48°F 1017.2 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 27 mi51 min 46°F 37°F1017.7 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 29 mi51 min W 7 G 8.9 49°F 35°F1018.3 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 35 mi35 min S 7.8 G 7.8 38°F1017.5 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 36 mi69 min W 7 G 8.9 49°F 35°F1017.7 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 42 mi51 min SW 1.9 G 1.9 45°F 1018.1 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 46 mi45 min S 5.8 G 7.8 44°F 34°F
BDSP1 49 mi51 min 50°F 36°F1017.7 hPa

Wind History for Bergen Point West Reach, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ21 mi49 minSW 1010.00 miFair52°F28°F40%1018.1 hPa
Somerville, Somerset Airport, NJ22 mi52 minVar 510.00 miFair50°F29°F44%1016.7 hPa
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ22 mi54 minSW 1210.00 miMostly Cloudy47°F29°F50%1017.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLM

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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2 days agoW13W9W7W7W5SW3SW4SW4SW4S4S4S4S4S3S4S4S5S6S7S9S8SE9S9
G25
Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Old Bridge, South River, New Jersey
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Old Bridge
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Wed -- 12:08 AM EST     0.40 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:13 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 06:12 AM EST     5.72 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:38 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 01:00 PM EST     0.06 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:43 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:43 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:48 PM EST     5.00 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.71.83.24.45.35.75.54.73.62.41.30.40.10.51.62.944.854.53.52.31.2

Tide / Current Tables for Bayonne Bridge, Kill van Kull, New York Current
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Bayonne Bridge
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Wed -- 02:04 AM EST     1.83 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 05:13 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 05:43 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:37 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:54 AM EST     -1.44 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 12:36 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:40 PM EST     1.59 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 02:42 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:42 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:29 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 09:22 PM EST     -1.42 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.21.31.81.50.90.4-0.2-0.8-1.3-1.4-1.3-1-0.50.41.41.61.20.80.3-0.4-1-1.4-1.3-1

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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