Sunday, July5, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Cliffwood Beach, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:31AMSunset 8:32PM Sunday July 5, 2020 4:21 PM EDT (20:21 UTC) Moonrise 9:17PMMoonset 5:44AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 1028 Am Edt Sun Jul 5 2020
Today..SW winds around 10 kt, becoming se this afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..W winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Mon night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1028 Am Edt Sun Jul 5 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A series of weak surface troughs shift near or through the area today and Monday. A warm front will move north into the area on Tuesday, otherwise weak high pressure will prevail over the western atlantic through mid week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cliffwood Beach, NJ
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location: 40.43, -74.22     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 051738 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 138 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak surface low pressure trough will persist over the area through Monday, while weak upper level disturbances pass across. A warm front will lift toward the area on Tuesday. Weak high pressure will then briefly build in through the end of the this week. A cold front will then approach from the west while low pressure approaches from the south this weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. An upper level trough will gradually translate east, with an embedded vort max moving out of Quebec into New England. This feature, along with convergence invof the inland trough and a sea breeze moving inland, could spark a late day shower or tstm mainly over interior SE CT. Elsewhere, available moisture is more lacking, with PW around 1.20 inches. The predominantly rain free day should allow temperatures to rise into the upper 80s for most of the area. New York City proper could be in the lower 90s.

An isolated shower may still be possible into this evening. Temperatures overnight should remain mild, ranging from the mid 60s well inland to the mid 70s in NYC.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Overall, high pressure will remain on Monday, with a thermal trough redeveloping in the afternoon. Mostly sunny skies will lead to another afternoon of higher than normal temperatures in the lower 90s for much of the forecast area. This begins to change by late Monday afternoon when a weak mid level shortwave enters eastern Pennsylvania. This shortwave could spark showers and thunderstorms as elevated CAPE values 1000-1500 J/kg over our western counties should be sufficient for convection in the evening.

Overnight Monday into Tuesday the shortwave stalls south of Long Island then begins to lift back north as a warm front. This will likely lead to another round of showers and thunderstorms for Tuesday. As a result temperatures are expected to remain in the mid 80s in the afternoon. The showers will have to monitored closely as precipitable water values to approach 1.80 inches in some locations along the Lower Hudson Valley. The moisture present could promote nuisance street flooding beneath a relatively heavy downpour.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. Models in good agreement with weekend shortwave troughing moving east on Monday, and the region lying on the northern edge of broad CONUS ridging through the week. This will be a dirty ridge though, with a weak closed low over the Mississippi River Valley early in the week slowly shearing/lifting towards the east coast through the week, before interacting and amplifying a bit with a northern stream shortwave and slowly sliding through the area this weekend. Before then, a midweek northern stream shortwave moving through S Canada may buckle the ridge enough to provide a trigger for afternoon diurnal convection, particularly Wed.

At the surface, the area will initially be under the influence of a moderating Canadian maritime airmass Monday and Tuesday with surface high pressure slowly sliding east through the Canadian maritimes in wake of departing shortwave energy. This should keep the area fairly quiet to start the week, with onshore flow and any focus for convection staying to the W and SW of the region.

A warm front approaches late Tuesday into Tuesday Night and likely lifts through the area Wednesday morning, with some indication of an earlier mentioned very weak shortwave/buckling of trough moving through aloft. This will present a trigger for convection Wed, particularly in the aft/eve, although the focus is a bit more vague at this point. This warm frontal passage and SW flow will begin a stretch of very warm and humid weather into at least Friday, and possibly Saturday. Heat indices of around 95 degrees possible for NE NJ, NYC metro and Lower Hud, with widespread highs in the mid to upper 80s, to around 90 NYC metro and NE NJ and Interior valleys.

Indication of building heights on Thursday and Friday, with region warm sectored. Progress of the earlier mentioned shearing southern closed low will determine if there is a trigger for afternoon convection both days, but at this point doesn't looks so. Looks like this feature still may be well SW/S of the region. So only a conditional potential for some isolated convection off terrain and seabreeze boundaries in a moderate to highly unstable airmass, but likely weakly capped and weak shear. Widespread temps in the upper 80s to lower 90s likely for Thursday with heat indices of 95-100 likely. Temps and heat indices on Friday become a bit more uncertain, predicated on evolution of southern low, and timing and track up the coast. Potential for temps and heat indices to rise to similar levels as Thursday, but potential onshore flow and increased cloud cover ahead of the southern low may limit potential heating.

Then, as mentioned the interaction of the next northern stream shortwave and the southern low, will likely result in amplification of troughing down the East Coast. Indication of the southern low tracking up the coast on Saturday, as a cold front approaches the region. Quite a bit of spread in the evolution of this low and interaction with the frontal boundary, but potential exists for more widespread convective activity in a very moist (PW 2.0-2.5 inches) and unstable environment. If the southern low interacts with the front as it moves through, an excessive rainfall threat would exist. NHC is also monitoring the southern system for potential tropical or subtropical development this week. Otherwise, very warm and very humid conditions likely for Saturday, but high temperatures and heat indices will depend greatly on the interaction and evolution of these systems.

Fairly good agreement on mean troughing lingering Sunday into Monday, with cold front coming through the area Saturday Night. A very warm but drier air mass likely as Canadian high pressure slides across Northern New England.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. A weak cold front slowly drops south, eventually passing through the terminals toward daybreak Monday. Meanwhile, a surface trough remains NW of the city today.

VFR. Winds around 10kt or less. Sea breezes for all but KSWF. Variable to light WNW winds overnight give way to late morning/early afternoon sea breezes again on Monday.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. Monday through Thursday. Afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms possible, mainly from the NYC metros north/west. Friday. Rain with sub-VFR more likely. Chc E-SE gusts 20-25kt.

MARINE. Sub-SCA conditions expected through mid week. Ocean seas stating off about a ft lower than previously forecast, around 2 ft, so by late this afternoon max seas more likely to peak at 3 ft rather than 4 ft as winds increase to around 15 kt.

HYDROLOGY. Widespread hydrologic issues are not anticipated at this time.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. The combination of a SE swell and high astronomical tides (full moon) has resulted in water levels around or slightly below minor coastal flood benchmarks during the evening high tide cycle the last few days across lower NY harbor and the south shore back bays of Queens and Nassau. With high tide levels coming down just a bit tonight, will refrain from a statement or advisory at this time. Water levels will likely just approach minor benchmarks again tonight.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is undergoing its final stages of testing, and is operating at full power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . None.



AVIATION . JC


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 11 mi51 min SE 9.9 G 12 82°F 76°F1013.8 hPa
MHRN6 15 mi51 min N 1.9 G 5.1
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 15 mi51 min 90°F 77°F1013.2 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 18 mi51 min S 13 G 16 83°F 1013 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 22 mi51 min 83°F 73°F1013.3 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 28 mi31 min S 9.7 G 12 76°F2 ft1012.9 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 35 mi51 min N 8 G 14 93°F 82°F1013.6 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 36 mi51 min ENE 4.1 G 5.1 89°F 1013.7 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 41 mi36 min ESE 3.9 G 5.8 80°F 67°F
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 42 mi45 min NW 1.9 G 8.9 91°F 82°F1012.6 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ18 mi25 minE 1010.00 miFair89°F70°F53%1013.6 hPa
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ20 mi30 minNNW 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy95°F52°F23%1012.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLM

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE6SE5S5SE5SE7SE4S3S3S4CalmS3SW4SW5E5S6S6SW6W6W6CalmW8NW7NW7E10
1 day agoSE6SE6SE5E10E11E7SE4E5E5E6NE5NE6NE7NE5NE6NE7N9NE65NW7E3E7E7E6
2 days agoS6W11NW4SW5W4SW4CalmW4W3W5W5W5W4W3W5NW7NW9NW6NW7N6NW8N4E8SE6

Tide / Current Tables for Matawan Creek, Route 35 bridge, New Jersey
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Matawan Creek
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:44 AM EDT     Full Moon
Sun -- 02:55 AM EDT     -0.44 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 05:43 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 08:41 AM EDT     5.19 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:57 PM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:30 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:59 PM EDT     6.47 feet High Tide
Sun -- 09:16 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.41-0.1-0.40.11.42.84.155.24.63.52.31.20.400.51.83.44.966.564.9

Tide / Current Tables for The Narrows, Midchannel, New York Harbor, New York Current
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The Narrows
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:44 AM EDT     Full Moon
Sun -- 01:40 AM EDT     -2.36 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 05:20 AM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 05:42 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:47 AM EDT     1.63 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 10:30 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 01:48 PM EDT     -2.07 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 05:12 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:57 PM EDT     2.22 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 08:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:16 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:09 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.6-2.2-2.3-2-1.4-0.40.81.51.61.30.5-0.5-1.3-1.9-2.1-1.7-1.1-0.2122.221.30.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.