Wednesday, February24, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
North Middle, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:36AMSunset 5:44PM Wednesday February 24, 2021 9:39 PM EST (02:39 UTC) Moonrise 3:43PMMoonset 6:12AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 727 Pm Est Wed Feb 24 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday morning...
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw late. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers late this evening. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt in the morning. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain and snow after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..S winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the morning, then rain likely in the afternoon.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft after midnight.
Sun..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of rain.
Sun night..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of rain.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
ANZ300 727 Pm Est Wed Feb 24 2021
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front moves across the waters tonight. High pressure then returns, building in from the west Thursday through early Friday. Low pressure and its associated frontal system impacts the waters Friday night into Saturday, with another frontal system moving through the waters Sunday into Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Middle, NJ
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location: 40.44, -74.13     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 250032 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 732 PM EST Wed Feb 24 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure gives way to a cold front that moves through the area tonight. High pressure then returns, building in from the west Thursday into early Friday. The high over the region early Friday moves off the coast as a frontal system approaches. The frontal system impacts the area Friday night and Saturday. Another frontal system moves through the region Sunday into Monday. High pressure briefly returns Tuesday. Another frontal system may impact the area Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/. Forecast has been updated to reflect latest obs. Have slowed timing of precip slightly for tonight.

A deepening low traveling from the Eastern Great Lakes will be moving across Northern New England tonight and eventually into the Canadian Maritimes by early Thursday. This low will have an associated cold front at the surface that will move across the local region tonight. The front and mid and upper level trough will have a lack of moisture as there will be mostly westerly flow and highest positive vorticity advection will be displaced well north of the local region. The HRRR conveys some reflectivity echoes crossing the region this evening. POPs in the forecast are no greater than 30 percent for the rain showers tonight.

Precipitation type in this case is just rain showers as ambient temperatures will be mainly in the 40s during the frontal passage. Some locations may very well stay dry with the lack of moisture in the trough and cold front. Lows will be in the low to upper 30s using a blend of model data with an emphasis on MOS consensus. These temperatures will be reached by early Thursday morning. The temperature range will not be as vast as radiational cooling will be somewhat mitigated with gusty winds in the boundary layer with wind direction becoming more west to northwest late tonight.

Clouds decrease late tonight into Thursday as a ridge of high pressure builds in at the surface.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. For Thursday and Thursday night, high pressure builds in from the west at the surface and aloft, there will be zonal flow.

Thursday will still have a steep pressure gradient and while cold air advection will result in a colder day relatively compared to the previous day, high temperatures forecast are still expected to be above normal. Boundary layer vertical mixing adiabatically up to around 875mb is expected, relatively deeper than the previous day. With this gusty NW flow, coastal locations are expected to be warmer with downslope flow. Highs for much of the region will be from the low to upper 40s with those upper 40s temperatures for NYC Metro and Long Island. Wind gusts will reach near 25 to 30 mph with a few locally higher gusts possible up to around 35 mph at times.

Winds will decrease Thursday night with a weakening of the pressure gradient. Gusts will diminish late. This will be as the center of the high pressure area gets closer to the local area. The decrease in winds with still mostly clear sky conditions will allow for more optimal radiational cooling. This will present a more vast range of lows, from the upper teens to lower 30s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. A mainly zonal upper flow remains across the country through the extended period with the northern stream dominating as a series of shortwaves moves across the northeast Friday night into Saturday, with another Sunday into Monday, and possibly yet another wave Wednesday. Models have been more consistent with the timing of the low impacting the area Friday night into Saturday, and with more certainty have increased probabilities to likely during Saturday. Thermal profiles Friday night as showing the precipitation beginning as light snow and then quickly warming as warm advection increases through the day Saturday. During the morning into early afternoon the precipitation transitions from snow to all rain. There is little cold air expected to move into the region behind the low Saturday night as weak ridging briefly builds into the northeast. Then yet another shortwave and low track to the north of the area Sunday into Monday. With the warm air remaining across the region this system will be all liquid.

After this system model guidance becomes uncertain with the potential for another weak system to move through Wednesday. The GFS keeps near zonal flow and surface high pressure to the south while the ECMWF and Canadian develop a low in the southern stream and moves this system into the region. There is also uncertainty with any phasing with the northern stream. With the uncertainty will only have slight chance probabilities at this time.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. A cold front passes overnight.

VFR through the TAF period, with only a few sprinkles possible with the frontal passage overnight. Confidence of sprinkles / showers is too low to include in TAFs. LLWS through about 6z overnight ahead of the frontal passage.

Wind gusts end this evening for most terminals before picking up again overnight behind the frontal passage and a wind shift to the NW at 5-9z. NW winds with gusts in the 20-25kt range on Thu.

LLWS all areas the first half of tonight after winds at the sfc lessen and ahead of the cold front.

. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty .

Low confidence especially with regard to timing with gusts shutting off, and then starting up again overnight into early Thursday morning with amendments possible.

OUTLOOK FOR 0Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. Thursday night. VFR. WNW winds diminish. Friday. VFR. Saturday. MVFR or lower with rain. A wintry mix possible at the onset. Sunday. Chance of rain and MVFR. Monday. Strong NW winds possible behind a cold front.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE. No changes made to winds or seas at this time.

Small craft advisories are in effect for all waters through Thursday morning. Then, for Thursday afternoon, small craft advisories remain for Eastern Long Island Sound, Peconic and Gardiners Bays as well as the ocean zones. For Thursday evening, the small craft advisory continues for the ocean east of Fire Island Inlet. All waters are below SCA conditions for late Thursday night.

Southwest winds have increased across the waters with the development of some gusts to near 25 kt. Ocean seas are 4 to 5 ft east of Moriches Inlet and more in the 3 to 4 ft range to the west of Moriches Inlet. Wind gusts expected to increase to near 25 kt mid to late this afternoon and for all waters tonight with ocean seas building to 5 to 7 ft.

Widespread gusts in the 25-30 kt range are expected tonight into Thursday morning. On the ocean waters, some gusts closer to 35 kt will be possible tonight, but just occasional in frequency. There will be a significant inversion that will really limit the high gusts and mixing down of gale force winds. The 25kt gusts will likely linger across the eastern waters and ocean waters for Thursday afternoon. Ocean seas stay elevated in a 5 to 7 ft range tonight through Thursday afternoon.

Conditions for both winds and seas lower Thursday night allowing for eventual return to sub-SCA conditions gradually for the forecast waters.

Winds and seas will be below SCA conditions Friday with high pressure over the waters. As a frontal system impacts the waters Saturday winds and seas on the ocean waters will increase to SCA levels. Winds diminish late Saturday night into Sunday as high pressure builds back into the waters, however, ocean seas will remain elevated into Sunday night. Small craft conditions return once again on the ocean waters Monday and remain into Monday night as yet another frontal system impacts the waters. The non ocean waters are expected to remain below SCA levels Friday through late Monday. With a gusty northwest flow developing behind the departing low as strong high pressure builds SCA conditions will be possible as all the forecast waters Monday night.

HYDROLOGY. Showers through tonight will amount to less than a tenth of an inch. No hydrologic impacts are anticipated through Wednesday.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Thursday for ANZ335-338- 345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Thursday for ANZ330-340- 355. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST Thursday for ANZ353. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST Thursday for ANZ350.

SYNOPSIS . JM/MET NEAR TERM . JM/MET SHORT TERM . JM LONG TERM . MET AVIATION . JE MARINE . JM/MET HYDROLOGY . JM/MET


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 7 mi51 min SSW 16 G 18 46°F 1009.2 hPa
MHRN6 14 mi51 min SSW 9.9 G 13
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 14 mi51 min 47°F 38°F1008.3 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 15 mi51 min SSW 11 G 13 49°F 1008.6 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 19 mi51 min 46°F 37°F1009.3 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 23 mi29 min SSW 21 G 27 39°F1008.4 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 32 mi51 min SW 11 G 12 42°F 1009.6 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 37 mi39 min S 9.7 G 14 42°F 39°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 39 mi51 min SW 4.1 G 8 48°F 36°F1009.7 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 46 mi63 min SSW 5.1 G 7 48°F 36°F1009 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ18 mi43 minSSW 11 G 1710.00 miOvercast49°F39°F69%1009.8 hPa
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ19 mi48 minSSW 910.00 miMostly Cloudy45°F35°F68%1008.6 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY24 mi48 minSSW 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy42°F37°F82%1009.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLM

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW6W9W7SW6W7SW7SW7W6SW5SW5SW4SW7SW7W10SW10SW6S11
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2 days agoS4S4S4S4S3S4S4S5S6S7S9S8SE9S9
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CalmE55W5SW5SW6W7
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Tide / Current Tables for Keansburg, Waackaack Creek, New Jersey
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Keansburg
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Wed -- 05:12 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 05:17 AM EST     4.72 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:37 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:22 PM EST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:42 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:42 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:53 PM EST     4.13 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.41.22.43.54.34.74.643.22.21.30.60.10.212.13.13.94.13.832.11.20.5

Tide / Current Tables for The Narrows, Midchannel, New York Harbor, New York Current
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The Narrows
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:49 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:36 AM EST     1.74 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 05:12 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 06:37 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:39 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 10:54 AM EST     -1.96 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 02:41 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:44 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:09 PM EST     1.35 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 05:42 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:50 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:04 PM EST     -1.83 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.1-0.60.21.11.71.71.50.7-0.4-1.2-1.8-2-1.7-1.3-0.70.31.11.31.30.8-0.2-1-1.6-1.8

Weather Map
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