Monday, January25, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Keyport, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 5:08PM Monday January 25, 2021 2:34 PM EST (19:34 UTC) Moonrise 3:06PMMoonset 5:45AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 1210 Pm Est Mon Jan 25 2021
This afternoon..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of snow after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Snow and sleet likely. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Light rain likely.
Wed..N winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of light rain in the morning.
Wed night..N winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..NW winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 1210 Pm Est Mon Jan 25 2021
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Weak high pressure builds in from the west through today and into this evening. This will give way late tonight to approaching multiple low pressure areas. These lows approach Tuesday into Tuesday night. One low to the west eventually dissipates with the one going into atlantic maintaining its strength going into Wednesday. A coastal storm passes fairly well south of the waters late at night through Thursday. High pressure then slowly builds back in through Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Keyport , NJ
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location: 40.44, -74.2     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 251731 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1231 PM EST Mon Jan 25 2021

SYNOPSIS. Weak high pressure builds in from the west through today and into this evening. This will give way late tonight to approaching multiple low pressure areas. These lows approach Tuesday into Tuesday night. One low to the west eventually dissipates with the one going into Atlantic maintaining its strength going into Wednesday. A coastal storm passes fairly well south of the area late at night through Thursday. High pressure then slowly builds back in through Saturday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. The fcst remains on track.

High pressure gradually builds in from the west but will remain weak. There will be some ridging aloft that will help promote subsidence. Dry conditions prevail today. Highs forecast in the mid 30s to near 40, a consensus of MOS and NBM guidance.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The main focus here will be timing and duration of wintry precipitation across the region within the Tuesday into early Wednesday timeframe. The synoptic set up and ambient surface conditions show very limited snow accumulations along the coast where temperatures are expected to reach above freezing but with locations getting farther north and west and inland, surface temperature will be mostly at or below freezing. The combination of lack of ice nuclei at times and low level elevated warm layers above freezing will make for a wintry mix within this event. Overall, light ice and light snow accumulations are forecast, relatively higher across the interior. In confidence increases in these conditions with subsequent forecasts, a winter weather advisory may be needed.

The precipitation associated with approaching low pressure has trended slower with numerical weather prediction precipitation forecasts over the last 24 to 48 hours.

The frontal system will continue to approach the region from the southwest. The associated surface lows and warm front are still well south of the region.

Looking at Jan 25th 00Z guidance, again outside of far western Orange County, Northeast NJ, and NYC, dry conditions expected 00-12Z Tuesday. Most models have front edge of precip from Western PA east southeast through SE PA and Southern NJ into DE 00-06Z Tuesday, and then Western NY State SE through Southern NJ 06-12Z Tuesday. ECMWF shows more expansion of precip and actually gets into a few western locations within the region by early Tuesday morning.

For Tuesday, there will be two low pressure areas, one moving from Ohio to Western PA and another moving east of the mid- Atlantic. Western low is weakening with time in its northeastward movement while the one moving out into the Atlantic maintains its strength and some models indicate it to slightly deepen. Overrunning precip develops and moves into the area but is not expected to be intense. Warm air advection aloft and isentropic lift will lead to developing overrunning stratiform precipitation. A rain/snow/sleet mix can be expected along the coast, snow/sleet mix farther interior, with plain snow across the most interior locations. Temperatures along the coast being above freezing with a longer duration steady light precip will make for very little in the way of snow accumulations. Across the interior, snow accumulations of near 1 to 2 inches is forecast where temperatures will stay below freezing longer.

Models are coherent in conveying the precip moving across much of the region and conveys a little more precip than previous runs.

For Tuesday night, shortwave moves in with positive vorticity advection. The low that was in Western PA eventually diminishes as it moves farther east while further weakening. The low out in the Atlantic will continue moving eastward and maintaining its strength. Precip extends NW from this low into the region.

Some additional light snow as well as freezing rain can be expected. Less than a tenth of an inch of precip expected so less than 1 inch of additional snow for the interior and ice accretions is expected to be less than a tenth of an inch. It all depends on how much of a deep saturated layer there is and how much moisture there is in the -10 degree C to -30 degree C layer. Model soundings are indicating a lack of moisture in this layer and thereby implying a lack of ice nuclei with some soundings indicating a slight warm layer above freezing in the 900 to 950mb layer. Along the coast, there is a greater easterly flow and surface temperatures are kept warmer, mid to upper 30s, so mainly rain can be expected.

The total precipitation will be less than a tenth of an inch for Tuesday night so made intensity light and if the moisture ends up being shallow enough, may even just be drizzle (freezing drizzle for interior, plain drizzle along the coast).

For Wednesday, shortwave axis within the region in the morning and to the east in the afternoon, but with another shortwave approaching from the west. Precip is delayed in this scenario with mostly cloudy conditions remaining in the afternoon when precip is expected to taper off. Again, depending on saturation layer depth and any low level warm layers above freezing, some light freezing rain and snow is forecast across the interior with light plain rain along the coast. POPs decrease to slight chance in the afternoon with mainly dry conditions expected. Dry conditions remain into Wednesday night for the first half but slight chance POPs for mainly snow was maintained for second half of Wednesday night.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. Moving forward, the next in the series Pac systems in the southern branch will pass off the Mid Atlantic coast Wednesday night into Thursday. The associated surface low undergoes rapid deepening during this time, but global models are all in good agreement with the system passing to our south. Both the GEFS and ECMWF ensemble members are all clustered close to the operational tracks at this time. Thus, will only go with a slight chance of snow late Wednesday into Thursday. It seems unlikely at this time that there would be any accumulation. More importantly though, there is the potential for a surge of cold air behind the system as a piece of the polar vortex drops off to the south and into the area Thursday night into Friday. Gusty NW winds during this time will produce wind chill values in the single digits at night and in the teens during the daytime. Highs on Friday may not get out the 20s.

The southern branch returns over the weekend as the polar high gradually retreats Saturday into Saturday night ahead of the next system. There are some differences at this time with the magnitude and progression of the system with the GFS and GGEm the most progressive in bringing winter weather into the area next Sunday. For the time, due to the uncertainty, chances will be low at this time. Temperatures will also moderate over the weekend with highs into the 30s to around 40 on Sunday.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. High pressure will build in from the west today, while low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes weakens. The high then weakens tonight as low pressure approaches from the southwest.

VFR conditions are expected through much of the TAF period. A wintry mix will move into the metro terminals after 15Z Tuesday, however there is a chance (PROB30) for the wintry mix to move in between 13Z and 15Z Tuesday along with MVFR conditions. Precipitation will be light and there may be little restriction to visibility until after 15Z, along with ceilings lowering to MVFR.

NW winds generally less than 10 kt today. Winds shift to N/NE late this afternoon into this evening and remain less than 10 kt.

Around an inch of snow is expected for KJFK and KLGA

1"-2" of snow is expected for most other terminals.

2"-3" of snow is expected for KSWF.

A few hundredths of an inch of ice is possible for KHPN and KSWF. A trace of ice is possible for KTEB and KBDR.

. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty .

No unscheduled amendments are expected through tonight.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. Tuesday Afternoon. Becoming MVFR/IFR in developing light snow/sleet mix. The wintry precipitation will change to rain at the coastal terminals in the evening. There is the possibility of freezing rain at the inland terminals in the evening. NE gusts near 20 kt at the coastal terminals. Gusts diminish at night. Wednesday. Chance of MVFR/IFR in light mixed precipitation changing to all rain for most terminals. Thursday. Likely VFR with a low chance of rain and snow. NE-N winds 10-20G20-30kts. Friday. VFR. NW 10-20G20-30kt, strongest at the coastal terminals. Saturday. VFR. NW 10-15kt

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE. Conditions should remain below SCA levels today through much of Wednesday night as the center of high pressure moves overhead today and a weakening area of low pressure moves over the area Tuesday night. There may be occasional gusts to 25 kt over the ocean waters Tuesday afternoon as the low approaches the area.

The pressure gradient increases late Wednesday night and 25 kt gusts are possible on the ocean waters into Thursday due to the influence of a coastal storm. Too early to be certain, but a potential of gale force gusts on all waters exists during Thursday and Thursday night. Winds and seas subside during Friday, but with advisory conditions likely.

HYDROLOGY. No hydrologic concerns are anticipated through next week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 10 mi46 min 34°F 1018.8 hPa
MHRN6 14 mi64 min WNW 4.1 G 8.9
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 14 mi46 min 37°F 38°F1017.7 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 17 mi46 min 36°F 1018.2 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 21 mi46 min 37°F 40°F1018.3 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 27 mi24 min NW 9.7 G 12 44°F1017.9 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 34 mi46 min 33°F 1019.2 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 36 mi46 min 35°F 35°F1019 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 40 mi64 min NW 9.7 G 12 36°F 15°F
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 43 mi58 min WSW 5.1 G 6 33°F 1018.5 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ18 mi38 minW 610.00 miFair36°F13°F39%1018.7 hPa
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ19 mi43 minW 610.00 miMostly Cloudy40°F12°F32%1017.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLM

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Keyport, New Jersey
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Keyport
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:44 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:04 AM EST     4.88 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:52 AM EST     0.19 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:05 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:06 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:38 PM EST     4.05 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:43 PM EST     0.16 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.81.82.93.94.64.94.7432.11.10.40.20.61.62.53.43.943.52.71.70.90.3

Tide / Current Tables for The Narrows, Midchannel, New York Harbor, New York Current (2)
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The Narrows
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:28 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:17 AM EST     1.66 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 04:44 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:21 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:35 AM EST     -1.85 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 02:04 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:28 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:54 PM EST     1.17 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:05 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:27 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:40 PM EST     -1.70 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.9-0.40.51.31.61.61.20.4-0.6-1.3-1.8-1.8-1.5-1.1-0.40.51.11.210.4-0.5-1.2-1.6-1.7

Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.