Saturday, December7, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Madison Park, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 4:32PM Saturday December 7, 2019 8:34 AM EST (13:34 UTC) Moonrise 3:13PMMoonset 3:14AM Illumination 81% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 651 Am Est Sat Dec 7 2019
Today..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain after midnight.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of rain in the morning. Chance of snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
ANZ300 651 Am Est Sat Dec 7 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure will build from the west today, settle over the waters tonight, then pass east on Sunday. A warm front will approach on Monday and lift north Monday night. A cold front will then approach on Tuesday and pass through Tuesday night into Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Madison Park, NJ
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location: 40.44, -74.28     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 071125 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 625 AM EST Sat Dec 7 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will build across the Mid Atlantic and northeast states today and tonight, before shifting offshore on Sunday. A warm front is expected to lift northward across the area on Monday, followed by a cold front Tuesday into Tuesday night. High pressure builds back across the Mid Atlantic region Thursday into Thursday night, before shifting offshore through Friday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Quiet but cold weather expected for today. High pressure is building into the region out of the Midwest and will be directly overhead by this evening. Main point of interest today will be temperatures several degrees below normal behind yesterday's cold front, with a sharp trough overhead. A weak upper level disturbance, also tracking out of the upper Midwest, may lead to a period of increased high clouds this morning or early afternoon, but large scale subsidence associated with the high pressure will yield a dry day. Northwest flow continues behind the front but wind speeds will be on the light side without much of a gradient.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/. Strong high pressure remains overhead tonight. Winds will go nearly calm and the air is very dry, and with mainly clear skies in place it should be a very good night for radiational cooling. The upper level trough will push off to the east overnight and temperatures aloft will start to inch up slightly, but surface temperatures should drop quickly after sunset as the boundary layer decouples. Expecting one of the colder nights of the season so far with many areas dipping into the low to mid 20s and some teens to the north.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Quiet weather begins the long term period Sunday, then unsettled weather returns for the first half of next week, then quiet weather returns for the end of next week.

High pressure shifts offshore on Sunday, but the weather will remain dry through the day, although clouds will increase late in the day Winds may be a little gusty at times during the day Sunday, but gusts should remain mostly 15 to 20 mph, with occasional high peak gusts around 25 mph.

As we move into Sunday night, a warm front is expected to be lifting north toward the area, then lift across and through the area during the day Monday. At the same time, there will be multiple short wave/vorticity impulses moving across the area starting late Sunday night and continuing through Monday night, even once the warm front lifts through the area. With each of these short waves, there will be areas of enhanced lift and moisture. This is expected to lead to several possible periods of enhanced rainfall chances across the area, especially Monday into Monday evening. If any precipitation starts early enough Sunday night while temperatures a cold enough, a brief wintry mix may be possible for portions of northeast Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey before changing to all rain.

Then as we move into Tuesday, a cold front is expected to move across the area later during the day into the evening. This will lead to another period of enhanced rainfall chances, especially during the afternoon and evening. PW values will likely exceed 1.00 inches and approach 1.25-1.50 inches Monday-Tuesday, so there could be period of moderate to heavy rainfall at times. With the first round of rainfall Monday-Monday night, we could get around 1.00-1.25 inches, and with the second round of rainfall, we could get 0.50-0.75 inches. There is a chance for some poor drainage/nuisance type flooding in areas of heavier rainfall during Monday-Tuesday.

The cold front will have moved offshore overnight Tuesday. However, models are indicating additional short wave/vorticity impulses moving across the area behind the cold front Tuesday night into Wednesday. This could lead to another period of precipitation, but as temperatures cool behind the front, this precipitation could change over or mix with snow at times overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. There is still some uncertainty with this outcome, but if this happens, some areas could see some snow accumulations. This area of precipitation will move offshore during the first half of Wednesday, then our area will be under the influence of strong northwest flow the rest of the day. Lake effect snow showers will likely be ongoing through the day to our north across New York and northern Pennsylvania where the steepest lapse rates and enhanced moisture will be located. The low-mid level flow will likely keep the showers to our north, but there is still a slight chance if the flow turns a little more south some lake effect showers could make it down into our area later in the day.

The chance for showers cuts off by Thursday as high pressure builds across the area, so dry weather is expected for Thursday into Thursday night. This high builds offshore of New England on Friday, but dry weather continues to be expected through the day Friday, although there will be an increase in cloud cover later in the day ahead of an approaching storm system from the south.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today . VFR. Northwest winds around 10 kt. High confidence.

Tonight . VFR. Light northwest winds early will turn light and variable or calm. High confidence.

OUTLOOK .

Sunday . VFR conditions expected. Southeast to south winds may gust around 15-20 knots at times. --High confidence.

Sunday night . Conditions may lower to MVFR later in the overnight ahead of a lifting warm front. South winds may shift to southeast late in the night. --Moderate confidence.

Monday-Tuesday . An extended period of MVFR and IFR conditions likely as periods of rain move across the area. Southeast winds early Monday become southwest once a warm front lifts across the area Monday. Winds shift to the northwest behind a cold front later Tuesday into Tuesday night. --Moderate confidence.

Tuesday night-Wednesday . Rain or snow remains possible with MVFR or IFR conditions possible. Improvement to VFR possible Wednesday afternoon. West to northwest winds become gusty to 20-25 knots on Wednesday.

MARINE. Update .

Have extended the Small Craft Advisory until 10AM due to lingering gusts near 25 kt with seas also having built to around 5 feet in some areas. Still expecting conditions to fall below SCA levels later this morning. Previous discussion follows.

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 6:00 this morning except for the upper Delaware Bay. Currently expect this advisory will be able to come down on time but will reevaluate with the next update. Once the advisory comes down this morning, sub-SCA conditions are expected to continue through tonight. Northwest winds could gust up to 20 kt during the day today. Winds gradually shifting to northeasterly tonight. Seas 2 to 3 ft through tonight.

OUTLOOK .

Saturday-Sunday night . Conditions are expected to be below Small Craft Advisory levels.

Monday-Tuesday night . Small Craft Advisory conditions likely as winds and seas increase as a warm front lifts across the area Monday, then a cold front moves across the area Tuesday.

Wednesday . Small Craft Advisory conditions likely to continue.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ431- 450>455.

Synopsis . Robertson Near Term . O'Brien Short Term . O'Brien Long Term . Robertson Aviation . O'Brien/Robertson Marine . O'Brien/Robertson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 14 mi46 min NW 12 G 16 35°F 42°F1028.1 hPa
MHRN6 15 mi46 min WNW 11 G 13
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 15 mi46 min 34°F 43°F1027.9 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 19 mi46 min NNW 15 G 18 34°F 1027.4 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 23 mi46 min 33°F 45°F1027.6 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 31 mi34 min NNW 21 G 27 37°F 48°F1027.6 hPa (+2.8)23°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 33 mi52 min NNW 5.1 G 6 34°F 38°F1028.5 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 37 mi46 min N 17 G 21 33°F 43°F1028 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 40 mi58 min N 1.9 G 4.1 34°F 38°F1027.9 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 42 mi34 min WNW 14 G 18 34°F 32°F23°F

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ20 mi43 minNW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy33°F18°F54%1027.9 hPa
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ20 mi38 minNW 910.00 miFair32°F19°F59%1028.1 hPa
Somerville, Somerset Airport, NJ24 mi41 minN 010.00 miFair24°F19°F84%1027.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLM

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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2 days agoSW6SW6W8W8W5W6W7SW4SW3SW3SW3W6SW4W9W7W5SW4SW5SW6W5W7W6W7W9

Tide / Current Tables for Cheesequake Creek, Garden State Parkway, New Jersey
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Cheesequake Creek
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:14 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:11 AM EST     4.72 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:37 AM EST     0.73 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:12 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:28 PM EST     4.48 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:30 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 10:43 PM EST     0.25 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.72.73.74.44.74.53.93.12.21.50.90.81.42.33.244.44.43.82.91.91.10.40.3

Tide / Current Tables for Bayonne Bridge, Kill van Kull, New York Current
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Bayonne Bridge
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:40 AM EST     1.62 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 02:13 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:13 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:16 AM EST     -1.24 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 10:57 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 01:06 PM EST     1.51 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 02:11 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:29 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 04:33 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:36 PM EST     -1.35 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 11:08 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.61.20.80.1-0.5-1-1.2-1.2-0.9-0.6011.51.30.80.3-0.3-0.8-1.3-1.3-1-0.7-0.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.