Saturday, January23, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Madison Park, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 5:06PM Saturday January 23, 2021 1:46 AM EST (06:46 UTC) Moonrise 1:46PMMoonset 3:44AM Illumination 74% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 1242 Am Est Sat Jan 23 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Overnight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..N winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of snow in the evening, then snow likely after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Snow likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..N winds around 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Wed night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 1242 Am Est Sat Jan 23 2021
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front passes further east for the remainder of the night, followed by high pressure building slowly east from the mid section of the country for the weekend. High pressure weakens Sunday night and Monday as low pressure approaches. The low passes south of the area Monday night into Tuesday night. High pressure returns Wednesday through Friday. Another low may move south of the region d for the middle of next week. Another low may move south of the region Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Madison Park, NJ
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location: 40.44, -74.28     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 230413 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1113 PM EST Fri Jan 22 2021

SYNOPSIS. As low pressure remains across southeast Canada through Saturday, high pressure will begin to build eastward out of the Midwest. That area of high pressure will move overhead by Sunday and shift off to the southeast Sunday night into Monday. An elongated area of low pressure tracking out of the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys will affect our area late Monday through Tuesday, bringing wintry precipitation to parts of the region. High pressure then builds back into the area Tuesday night and into Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 11 PM, strong cold air advection is underway. A wealth of cloudiness is spreading east-southeastward behind a cold front, with the leading edge of this already passing the I-95 area. Issued a quick update to increase the cloud cover quite a bit across most of the area for awhile. This cloud deck should then thin out overnight especially farther southeastward due to drier air advecting in along with a downsloping flow component.

Otherwise, we are seeing a few isolated snow showers or flurries across parts of the region within a strengthening cold air advection regime. Winds dropped off bit earlier but are increasing some with the increasing cold air advection.

For Saturday, as high pressure builds toward our area a decent pressure gradient will result in gusty winds with gusts up to 30 to near 40 mph at times. Temperatures will be below normal for Saturday with highs only in the 20s N/W and low/mid 30s elsewhere. Wind chills will be some 10 to 15 degrees cooler than the air temps in many spots.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. Fair weather expected with high pressure across the area. Mostly clear and cold Sat night with lows in the teens and low 20s most areas. Increasing clouds Sun/Sun night with temps Sun night mostly in the low/mid 20s with upper 20s for Delmarva areas.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Overview and Changes from Prior Forecast .

A rather complex weather system remains on track to affect the region early next week. We are beginning to get a better idea of the structure of this system, but uncertainty remains in the forecast. One trend we're seeing is a slower arrival time for steady precipitation. It now appears the bulk of precipitation will fall between Monday night and Tuesday, with most of the day Monday staying dry.

From there, the main forecast challenge with this system, as it often is, will be precipitation type. No significant changes to the forecast philosophy in that regard, and there have been no strong trends in the latest cycle of model guidance. The best chance of an all or mostly snow event remains to the north, while precipitation in the far southern zones may be mostly rain. In between, many areas are likely to see a wintry mix. The synoptic evolution is one that will favor warm advection aloft as low pressure coming out of the Mississippi Valley tracks west of us. However, with that low weakening, some coastal redevelopment likely, and the system as a whole tending to get more elongated and shunted east-southeastward with time, the warm push won't be especially strong. Towards the surface, a cool but not cold air mass will be in place as Canadian high pressure remains centered well to our north-northwest. With a lot of low level dry air in place we will likely see decent wet bulbing effects as precipitation moves in, which would act as a cooling factor. Definitely a setup where varied precipitation types appear likely.

At this stage, QPF with this storm does not look all that impressive. There is some spread in the guidance, but an early consensus keeps most locations within a couple tenths on either side of 0.50 inches of liquid. That should preclude this from being a particularly noteworthy storm in terms of snowfall totals. However, travel impacts could be considerable Monday night into Tuesday, especially if a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain occurs in the urban corridor, which seems increasingly likely. We will likely not have initial snow and ice forecasts covering the entire event until tomorrow (Saturday) afternoon.

Daily Details .

Monday . Monday will likely begin with mostly cloudy or overcast skies, and that overcast will lower and thicken as the day goes on and our weather system approaches. As mentioned, trends are slower with the arrival of steady precipitation. It looks as though most of the daytime Monday will be dry, especially to the north. Precipitation, mainly in the form of snow or sleet, may begin to overspread from southwest to northeast late in the day. Kept PoPs highest to the southwest and trended them down to the north, even to below mentionable levels across the far north. Temperatures Monday should be cool but not especially cold, with some moderation in the air mass but extensive cloud cover keeping highs mainly in the 30s, to near 40 south.

Monday night-Tuesday . The bulk of precipitation is expected during this period. A messy setup all around, from the synoptic structure of the storm system to the actual surface weather conditions. Low pressure tracking out of the Mississippi Valley region will become highly elongated and likely separate into a weakening parent low tracking west of us and a developing secondary wave over or just south of us. This will lead to a fairly prolonged precipitation event. The precipitation will mainly be driven by warm advection, but that lift source is going to be weakening, and consequently so will the precipitation shield. So may be a case of a long duration but mainly light intensity event. Given the weakening dynamics and lack of strong warm advection, as well as a northeast as opposed to east or southeast surface flow, am skeptical about how much plain rain will become involved outside of the southernmost zones. Currently feel frozen ptypes will be favored in most areas, though that could certainly include a good deal of sleet and freezing rain in addition to snow. Considering the relatively modest expectations for QPF, have an early suspicion of an advisory level event in most of the area, but still a lot of details yet to be determined.

Tuesday night-Wednesday . Behind the weather system, strong high pressure will remain centered over southern Canada for this period. A drying trend is expected. The latest cycle of guidance does show a chance for light snow or mixed precip to continue into Tuesday night, possibly enhanced by an inverted trough. Have not bought into this idea yet, but it will be something to watch for. Dry but chilly conditions are expected for Wednesday. Lows Tuesday night should mainly be in the upper 10s and low 20s, with highs Wednesday mainly in the 30s.

Wednesday night-Friday . We continue to watch later in the week for an additional storm chance. Not surprisingly given the time range, models are not yet in agreement on the track of a potential area of low pressure, but the overall signal is fairly consistent that there will be a storm system offshore. Most signs continue to point towards this storm staying mainly south of our region, but given the typical margin for error at that range we certainly can't yet rule out some impacts. The most likely time frame for any impacts would be Wednesday night and Thursday, with southern portions of the area favored for precipitation, if there is any. Otherwise, chilly conditions are expected to continue for the late week period with strong Canadian high pressure to our north. Highs and lows running near to a few degrees below average.

AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight . VFR ceilings for a time. West to northwest winds 10-15 knots with local gusts 20-25 knots at times. Moderate confidence.

Saturday . VFR. Northwest winds 10-20 knots with gusts 30-35 knots through the afternoon. High confidence.

Outlook . Sat night thru Sun night . VFR conditions expected with increasing clouds later Sun and Sun night. Moderate confidence.

Monday . Mainly VFR. BKN to OVC CIGs are likely most of the day but should be mainly at or above 5000 ft. MVFR may develop by late in the day especially near and west of PHL. Winds may be light and variable during the morning, but will become light from the northeast. Moderate confidence.

Monday night-Tuesday . Sub-VFR conditions expected, with mainly IFR likely. A combination of snow, rain, and mixed precipitation is likely over the region, which will cause reductions in both CIGs and VSBYs. Winds mostly northeast at around 10 kt. Moderate confidence in overall trends, but low confidence in details.

Tuesday night . Sub-VFR may linger into the early portion of the night, with a better chance for improvement to VFR later in the night. Northeast wind becoming northerly then north-northwesterly at 5 to 10 kt. Moderate confidence.

Wednesday . VFR. North-northwest wind 5 to 10 kt. High confidence.

MARINE. SCA conditions on the waters tonight with gusts between 25 and 30 knots. Fair weather expected with seas 4 to 6 ft on the ocean. Winds and seas increase early Sat morning with the next batch of cold air arriving. Gale warnings were issued with gusts between 30 and 35 knots expected Sat and into Sat evening. Mostly fair weather.

Outlook . Sunday-Sunday night . Once winds drop below 25 kt Sunday morning, winds and seas should stay below SCA criteria.

Monday . Sub-SCA conditions expected. Winds may be light and variable or light northerly in the morning, but should become northeast at around 10 kt. Seas 1 to 3 ft.

Monday night . Sub-SCA conditions are expected to start the night. Later in the night, marginal SCA conditions may begin to develop on the Atlantic coastal waters as seas approach 5 ft and northeast winds gust 20 to 25 kt. Rain or snow likely.

Tuesday-Tuesday night . On the Atlantic coastal waters, SCA conditions expected with seas 5 to 7 ft and northeast winds gusting up to 25 kt. Winds will turn more northerly overnight. For Delaware Bay, sub-SCA conditions should continue as gusts stay mainly 20 kt or less. Rain likely, with snow possible mainly for the waters of northern and central New Jersey.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ430-431- 450>455. Gale Warning from 6 AM to 10 PM EST Saturday for ANZ430-431- 450>455.

Synopsis . O'Brien Near Term . Gorse/Meola/O'Hara Short Term . O'Hara Long Term . O'Brien Aviation . Gorse/Meola/O'Brien Marine . O'Brien/O'Hara


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 14 mi47 min NW 16 G 18 37°F 1013.2 hPa (+0.7)
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 15 mi47 min 36°F 41°F1012.4 hPa (+0.7)
MHRN6 15 mi47 min NW 16 G 20
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 19 mi47 min NW 18 G 22 35°F 1012.4 hPa (+0.7)
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 23 mi47 min 35°F 40°F1012.8 hPa (+0.7)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 31 mi27 min WNW 18 G 21 1011.8 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 33 mi47 min NNW 11 G 17 35°F 38°F1014.1 hPa (+1.0)
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 37 mi47 min N 13 G 17 35°F 1013 hPa (+0.6)
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 40 mi71 min WNW 7 G 16 36°F 38°F1013.3 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ20 mi56 minNW 18 G 2310.00 miOvercast and Breezy35°F15°F44%1012.7 hPa
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ20 mi51 minW 710.00 miOvercast35°F22°F59%1013.2 hPa
Somerville, Somerset Airport, NJ24 mi54 minNNW 11 G 1710.00 miOvercast35°F18°F50%1012.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLM

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Cheesequake Creek, Garden State Parkway, New Jersey
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Cheesequake Creek
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:44 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:35 AM EST     4.54 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:20 AM EST     0.70 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:45 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:05 PM EST     3.81 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:04 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 10:12 PM EST     0.51 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.33.344.54.54.13.32.61.91.20.70.81.42.333.53.83.632.21.50.90.50.7

Tide / Current Tables for Bayonne Bridge, Kill van Kull, New York Current
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Bayonne Bridge
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:14 AM EST     1.56 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 02:44 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:40 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:45 AM EST     -1.18 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:38 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 12:44 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 12:48 PM EST     1.34 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 04:07 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:03 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:09 PM EST     -1.19 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 10:36 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.51.410.4-0.2-0.8-1.1-1.2-1-0.8-0.40.31.11.31.10.60.1-0.5-1-1.2-1.1-0.7-0.40.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.