Thursday, July16, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Thornburg, PA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:02AMSunset 8:49PM Thursday July 16, 2020 12:15 PM EDT (16:15 UTC) Moonrise 1:36AMMoonset 4:18PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Thornburg , PA
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location: 40.44, -80.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Pittsburgh, PA
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FXUS61 KPBZ 161210 AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 810 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020

SYNOPSIS. Showers and thunderstorms return today through part of Friday with a trough of low pressure. Mainly dry weather is expected Saturday before scattered thunderstorms return Sunday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Made a few adjustments to POPs and sky cover based on observations and near term models. A shortwave trough is expected to approach and cross the Upper Ohio Valley region today. Increasing diurnal instability and ascent with the trough should result in numerous showers and thunderstorms during the late morning and into the afternoon.

Current conditions this morning feature dewpoints not quite reaching that 70 degree threshold but increased southerly flow through the day enhance this potential. Also noting the semi clearing over western PA owing to increasing instability this morning. This is already a signal from out in OH where some showers have already developed across the area and are slowly moving northeast through the area. Also worth noting will be the RAP analysis depicting an axis of 1000-1200 DCAPE pushing east through the day. This will increase the potential for downbursts owing to the wind threat through the day as well. The storm mode for today continues to look more discrete cells and a tor and wind potential but good shear and robust instability will also make hail a threat. Hi-res models continue to depict the 17z to 19z range as initiation of severe convection.

Previous discussion . Moderate sfc based and ML CAPE, shear, and sufficient downdraft CAPE should result in a damaging wind and large hail potential. In addition, hodographs depicting veering wind with height, and sufficient storm relative helicity, are favorable for a few supercells with a potential for isolated tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center has continued with the Slight Risk/scattered coverage outlook for severe thunderstorms, and this will be maintained in the Hazardous Weather Outlook. Any flood potential should be limited to localized training, with sufficient storm motion precluding anything more widespread.

A limiting factor could be cloud cover from a decaying MCS to our west. Expect these clouds to gradually thin as they move east, though these could still somewhat limit daytime instability and the resulting severe weather potential. Trends will be monitored through the day. Highs are expected to range from 5 to 10 degrees above average.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, and the severe weather potential, should continue through the early evening as the shortwave trough completes its passage. The shortwave's associated sfc trough could support a few, mainly morning showers, SE of PIT Friday.

Mainly dry weather is then expected through Saturday as sfc high pressure/shortwave ridging builds across the Upper Ohio Valley region. Isolated showers are possible again Saturday night as a weak shortwave trough crosses the region around the periphery of an upper high across the SE CONUS. Temperatures are expected to remain 5 to 10 degrees above average.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Model ensemble solutions continue to indicate an upper high persisting across the southern half of the CONUS through early next week .Relatively weak shortwaves are progged to periodically cross the Upper Ohio Valley region on the northern periphery of the high. These waves, along with diurnal instability, should lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region, especially during the afternoon and evening. The high should weaken some by mid week, as a somewhat stronger trough crosses the Great Lakes/Upper OH Valley region, with continued scattered showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures should continue to average 5 to 10 degrees above seasonable levels.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. VFR conditions will prevail this morning, with mid and high cloud cover from the debris of a decaying MCS to our west.

Showers and thunderstorms will move in from the west ahead of a shortwave trough this afternoon, generally from 17Z on, while diurnal heating and orographic lift create isolated chances over the eastern ridges. One or two waves of activity are possible into the evening hours, and have included 3 hour TEMPO groups to account for the period when the strongest storms are expected. Strong, gusty wind will be possible with stronger thunderstorms, with hail also a possibility.

Lingering low-level moisture and low inversion heights may lead to the development of low clouds and mist overnight, with MVFR/IFR conditions likely at several terminals.

Outlook. An additional round of convection and potential restrictions will be possible Thursday night into Friday morning with secondary shortwave. VFR conditions expected otherwise.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. OH . None. PA . None. WV . None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh International Airport, PA9 mi24 minSSW 710.00 miOvercast83°F66°F59%1018.1 hPa
Pittsburgh - Allegheny County Airport, PA10 mi22 minS 710.00 miFair84°F69°F61%1018.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPIT

Wind History from PIT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7SE7SE95SW7S6CalmS5SE4CalmCalmS3SE3SE4SE5SE5SE5SE5SE7SE8S10S15
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1 day ago556W5N5NW54NE4N5NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3SE3E3SE5E8
2 days ago5N10
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NW11N10NW12N7NW9N7N5N6N3CalmW3NW4CalmCalmCalmNW4NW333NW7
G15

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Pittsburgh, PA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Pittsburgh, PA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.