Saturday, August15, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Plumsteadville, PA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:10AMSunset 7:59PM Saturday August 15, 2020 4:08 PM EDT (20:08 UTC) Moonrise 1:12AMMoonset 4:43PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 1226 Pm Edt Sat Aug 15 2020
This afternoon..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tonight..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers after midnight.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers.
Sun night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers in the evening, then chance of rain after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers.
Tue..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Tue night..W winds around 5 kt, becoming N around 5 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Wed..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 1226 Pm Edt Sat Aug 15 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure passes southeast of long island as high pressure builds into new england today. The high retreats towards the canadian maritimes on Sunday as another low pressure approaches from the middle atlantic coast. This low passes offshore on Monday. A cold front follows Monday night into Tuesday with high pressure by Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Plumsteadville, PA
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location: 40.47, -75.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 151749 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 149 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will nose into our region from the northeast today. Meanwhile, low pressure is forecast to develop in the Carolinas before moving northeastward. The low is anticipated to pass off the Virginia coast on Sunday morning, then it should move slowly out to sea. A cold front approaching from the northwest is expected to arrive on Monday night. The boundary is forecast to stall to our southeast for the middle and late parts of the new week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Light precipitation is attempting to move into the region this afternoon, but dry low levels are curtailing much in the way of measurable rain so far thanks to persistent northeast flow with backward trajectories from a retreating surface high in eastern Canada. Generally, models are doing a decent job indicating the gradual erosion of this near-surface dry air, with indications that precipitation will become steadier and more widespread after sunset this evening from southwest to northeast. Have adjusted PoPs through the evening hours with these trends in mind, though have mentioned at least slight chances through the afternoon in most areas south of I-76 given occasional tips of the bucket observed in Delaware and far southern New Jersey.

The large-scale pattern is rather complex today, with an upper low near the Canadian Maritimes and a positively-tilted trough approaching the spine of the Appalachians. As expected, widespread precipitation has developed in the lee of the higher terrain to our south and west. With trajectories from TC Kyle well offshore the coast, high-PW air is allowing for excessive rain to occur in portions of Virginia and North Carolina today. This geographic placement will remain fairly stationary through the evening as cyclogenesis occurs in the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic via large-scale ascent downstream of the Appalachians shortwave trough. Thereafter, the low will progress rapidly northeastward by 12z Sunday, somewhere in vicinity of southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina.

To the north of this low, a strong low-level baroclinic zone will be in place fairly close to the southern border of the CWA. Intense warm advection will occur near this zonally-oriented boundary, and precipitation should increase and spread northeastward into the region during the overnight hours. There will continue to be some residual effects of the departing surface high overnight, so precipitation coverage will likely be scattered (at least initially) with varying intensity. Nevertheless, the trend will be for increased coverage of rainfall as the night progresses, and PoPs generally increase/spread northward after 00z to indicate this evolution. Precipitation amounts overnight should be fairly light overall, though some higher amounts may occur in Delmarva in closer proximity to the baroclinic zone.

Temperatures are expected to be in the 60s to near 70 overnight, with most of the drop occurring during the early-mid evening before lower clouds/precipitation keep temperatures steady thereafter.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. A wet period is in store for much of the area Sunday, with a developing surface low in the central Mid-Atlantic Sunday morning moving north-northeast off the coast during the day before ejection east-northeast Sunday night.

Models continue to struggle with the evolution of the mid-/upper-level phenomena of interest, with interaction between the predecessor vort max moving off the Mid-Atlantic and the upstream vort max racing to southeast Canada the main culprit. The general trend (so far) with 12z guidance is for increased phasing of the two vorticity maxima, and this has led to increased amplification of flow downstream in the extreme western Atlantic. The result is a surface low that moves in closer proximity to the CWA, which suggests that steadier precipitation may be farther northward into the area than anticipated at this time yesterday. Additionally, higher QPF would be in the cards for the southern CWA, with the 12z NAM particularly concerning in this regard. Specifically, a swath of 3-6+ inches of rain is placed from southern Virginia to southern Delaware by 06z Monday, with widespread 2-4 inches in most areas south of I-78. The 12z NAM Nest is a little more restrained, but gives a fairly similar impression. The 12z GFS/CMC are much more muted, but likely too much given what has transpired today to our southwest. The 12z HREF output looks like a good compromise of the two camps, with a general (ensemble mean) 1-2 inches in the southern half of the CWA with locally 2-4 inches in the far southern portions of Delmarva and southeast New Jersey. Part of the reasoning for this approach is that I suspect input from stronger convective cores is underplayed by the coarser guidance, and deterministic models are likely also too conservative with the lift generated by the strong low-level flow impinging upon the tightening baroclinic zone.

The good news is that the precipitation should occur over a fairly lengthy period of time, so flooding is not expected to pose a major threat for most areas. However, cannot rule out some issues in Delmarva and southern New Jersey, and if confidence increases sufficiently that the higher QPF is more likely in these areas, a flood watch may be required. Meanwhile, areas near/north of I-80 may see little precipitation at all. Tricky forecast, for sure.

The best timing for widespread precipitation in our area is during the day, with precipitation likely shifting offshore Sunday evening. Model soundings indicate marginal instability may be present Sunday afternoon/evening in Delmarva and southern New Jersey, so have included a mention of thunder in these areas.

Temperatures will be cool on Sunday, with highs likely in the 70s for most locations. Lows on Sunday night are expected to be in the 60s and likely 50s for the southern Poconos.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. A cold front is forecast to approach from the northwest on Monday and it will likely arrive in our region on Monday night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible.

There remains some uncertainty as to how far the cold front will progress to our southeast before stalling. It appears as though relatively dry air will work its way into our region for Tuesday. However, the boundary may drift back toward us for Wednesday and Thursday, bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms at that time.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

This afternoon . VFR with CIGs slowly lowering to around 10 kft by evening. Winds generally easterly 5 to 15 kt (likely somewhat stronger at ACY). High confidence.

Tonight . VFR conditions are expected to deteriorate slowly to MVFR after 06z with showers increasing in coverage and spreading northeastward. VSBYs may become sub-VFR in heavier showers. Winds generally northeast up to 10 kt. Moderate confidence.

Sunday . Restrictions expected with steadier rain/showers through much of the day (especially near/south of PHL). Cannot rule out lightning, but this should be sparse in coverage (and generally south of the terminals). Some improvement to VFR at RDG/ABE is possible late in the day. Northeast winds 5 to 15 kt (stronger at ACY). Moderate confidence.

Outlook .

Sunday night . Gradual improvement to VFR is expected with showers moving off the coast. North to northeast winds 5 to 10 kt. Medium confidence.

Monday . Mainly VFR. A chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Medium to high confidence.

Monday night . Mainly VFR. A chance of evening showers and thunderstorms. Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. Medium to high confidence.

Tuesday . Mainly VFR. Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Medium to high confidence.

Tuesday night . Mainly VFR. Variable wind 6 knots or less. Medium to high confidence.

Wednesday . Mainly VFR. South wind 5 to 10 knots. Medium confidence.

MARINE. Conditions will deteriorate through tonight with seas continuing a slow build to 5 to 6 feet and northeast winds increasing to 15 to 20 kt with occasional gusts to 25 kt. Showers will spread in from the west overnight, with fairly widespread precipitation expected on Sunday before moving east of the region Sunday night. Winds/seas will be worst on Sunday, with gradual improvement expected on Sunday night as well.

For the Atlantic waters, a small craft advisory is in effect through Sunday night, as seas are expected to be near/above criteria through this time. For Delaware Bay, a small craft advisory is in effect on Sunday, when winds/gusts are expected be near 25 kt for much of the day.

Outlook .

Monday . Wind speeds and gusts are forecast to fall below 25 knots. However, wave heights on our ocean waters may remain around 5 feet, especially in the morning.

Monday night through Wednesday . No marine headlines are anticipated.

Rip currents .

For today, there is a moderate risk for the development of dangerous rip currents. Northeasterly winds will be 15-20 mph with gusts to around 25 mph. Breaking waves should be 3 to 5 feet with a medium period swell from the southeast.

For Sunday, there is a high risk for the development of dangerous rip currents. Northeasterly winds continue 15-20 mph with gusts to around 25 mph. Breaking waves building to 4 to 6 feet are anticipated with a short to medium period mainly wind wave from the east.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. The northeast flow along the coasts of New Jersey and Delaware this weekend will continue to cause water levels to build gradually. Astronomical tide heights will be on the increase as we approach Tuesday's new moon. The evening astronomical high tides are generally about a foot to a foot and a half higher than those in the morning.

Tidal departures were mainly in the +0.7 to +0.9 foot range this morning along our coast. With the expected gradual increase today, it continues to appear as though we will see spotty minor flooding with this evening's high tide. It should not be widespread enough to warrant a Coastal Flood Advisory.

As tidal departures rise even further, we may see a more extensive minor flooding event with Sunday evening's high tide. An advisory may become necessary as we get closer to that high tide cycle.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ450>455. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ430- 431.

Synopsis . Iovino Near Term . CMS Short Term . CMS Long Term . Iovino Aviation . CMS/Iovino Marine . CMS/Iovino Tides/Coastal Flooding . Iovino


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 31 mi93 min ESE 7 G 12 80°F 80°F1015.2 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 32 mi57 min SE 7 G 12 81°F 80°F1016.1 hPa
BDSP1 34 mi51 min 80°F 1015.6 hPa
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 37 mi51 min 81°F 78°F1014.7 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 48 mi51 min 80°F

Wind History for Burlington, Delaware River, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Doylestown, Doylestown Airport, PA10 mi75 minVar 310.00 miFair84°F59°F43%1015.1 hPa
Quakertown Airport, PA12 mi74 minE 410.00 miFair81°F60°F51%1016.3 hPa
Allentown, Lehigh Valley International Airport, PA19 mi78 minE 8 G 1510.00 miFair82°F59°F46%1015.3 hPa
Allentown Queen City Municipal Airport, PA19 mi74 minE 810.00 miFair81°F60°F51%1016.3 hPa
Trenton, Mercer County Airport, NJ23 mi76 minE 610.00 miFair82°F61°F49%1014.7 hPa
Philadelphia - Wings Field Airport, PA24 mi74 minE 710.00 miFair80°F62°F55%1015.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDYL

Wind History from DYL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalm4CalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3NE4NE3NE3NE3NE5--Calm6Calm3
1 day agoS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3CalmCalmCalmNE3CalmN3NE3NE3NE4NE3NE7NE85333
2 days agoS4S4SW4SW3CalmS3S3S4CalmCalmCalmCalm3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE6N5CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Trenton, Delaware River, New Jersey (2)
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Trenton
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:33 AM EDT     8.25 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:10 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:11 AM EDT     0.55 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:02 PM EDT     6.97 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:40 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:13 PM EDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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8.18.27.36.14.83.62.41.30.61.33.45.16.376.55.44.12.91.910.51.13.56

Tide / Current Tables for Trenton, Delaware River, New Jersey
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Trenton
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:14 AM EDT     8.43 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:10 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:32 AM EDT     0.67 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:52 PM EDT     7.51 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:40 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:30 PM EDT     0.79 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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8.48.16.75.13.82.71.80.90.92.756.27.17.56.653.42.11.40.912.75.57.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.