Wednesday, December11, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Atlantic Highlands, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 4:30PM Wednesday December 11, 2019 7:10 PM EST (00:10 UTC) Moonrise 5:19PMMoonset 7:21AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 534 Pm Est Wed Dec 11 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late. Gusts up to 30 kt until early morning. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne around 5 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of light rain in the morning, then chance of rain in the afternoon.
Fri night..E winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the evening, then rain likely after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sun..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 3 ft.
Sun night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
ANZ300 534 Pm Est Wed Dec 11 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Strong arctic high pressure builds in through tonight, then pushes offshore late Thursday as a warm front lifts well north of the area. Low pressure approaches from the south Friday and passes through on Saturday with low pressure building back in on Sunday and Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Atlantic Highlands , NJ
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location: 40.48, -74.01     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 112237 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 537 PM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

SYNOPSIS. A weak wave of low pressure passes offshore this morning. Arctic high pressure then builds across the region late today into Thursday. The high shifts offshore Thursday night. A low pressure system approaches from the south Friday. Rainfall becomes likely late Friday and overnight with an all day rain event expected through Saturday. The low exits to the northeast late Saturday into Sunday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/. Minor updates were made mainly for hourly temperatures, dewpoints and cloud cover based on latest obs and trends. Rest of the forecast is on track.

Strengthening arctic high pressure (1040+ mb by early Thursday morning) builds in tonight. Subsidence underneath the high will allow for a mostly clear sky. With the high strengthening, the pressure gradient increases, allow for winds to increase. So, although tonight will not be an optimal night for radiational cooling due to the winds, it should be rather cold due to cold advection, clear skies, and snow pack. Temperatures will drop to the teens in the outlying areas, and the middle 20s for the New York City metro area. Lower to middle 20s are expected elsewhere. Combined with the winds, it will feel more like the teens and single digits across the forecast area late tonight into early Thursday morning.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. Dry conditions continue into Thursday and Thursday night as the center of the high quickly moves over the area, then offshore thanks to zonal flow aloft. Continued cold advection early Thursday will mean well below normal high temperatures. Highs will be in the lower to middle 30s, some 10 to 15 degrees below normal for this time of year.

Return flow sets up on the back side of the high as it pushes offshore late Thursday. This will allow a warm front to lift well north of the area. Thursday night will see a non-diurnal temperature trend, with temperatures remaining steady or rising through the night, especially along the coast. Lows in the 20s to lower 30s will be reached early in the night. The return flow will also mean an increase in moisture aloft and therefore an increase in clouds.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Low pressure begins to take shape across the Southeast with high pressure centered well off to our northeast. Isentropic lift ahead of a warm front interacts with fairly shallow moisture for a chance of light rain or drizzle Friday morning, which could be freezing for a brief time NW of the city. Better chances of rainfall then occur in the afternoon as moisture deepens. Rain eventually becomes likely across the forecast area as Friday night progresses.

The center of the storm is expected to pass over or nearby the Tri-State Area Saturday morning into early afternoon. Increasing lift with deep moisture brings primarily rainfall that will be mainly moderate, but may be heavy at times. Rain chances drop off through Saturday night with the storm off to the east and a westerly flow developing in its wake. This will lead to a dry and breezy Sunday with high temperatures a few degrees above normal.

A high pressure ridge shifts through on Monday, keeping us dry. Another low pressure system then approaches from the Ohio Valley Monday night with increasing chances of rain or mixed PCPN into Tuesday. Will limit PoPs to no higher than 50% through Tuesday night as global deterministic models and ensembles disagree with the track of the storm. The track will also have implications on PCPN type. Went with the middle ground for this forecast, including simplified PCPN types this far out in time. High pressure would then follow for Wednesday with dry weather.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. High pressure builds toward the region tonight, and passes overhead Thursday.

VFR with clearing skies expected into the evening. Skies will be mostly clear overnight and Thursday morning.

Westerly winds will increase toward evening. Winds turn toward the NW and a few gusts 20-25 kt are possible during the evening. NW winds lighten later tonight and Thursday morning.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. Thursday afternoon-Thursday night. VFR. Friday and Friday night. Becoming MVFR or lower in developing rain, especially Friday night. Saturday. IFR in rain, tapering off the scattered showers later in the day and at night. LLWS possible. Sunday. Generally VFR. West winds 10-15kt gusts 20-30kt. Sunday night-Monday. VFR.

MARINE. SCA in effect as winds increase across all waters tonight, thanks to increasing pressure gradient from a strengthening high building into the area from the west. 25 to 30 kt gusts are expected through about midnight tonight, but will diminish thereafter.

Waves build to 4 to 6 ft on the ocean waters and will also diminish overnight, with the eastern ocean zone hanging on to 5 ft waves for a few hours Thursday morning. SCA in effect through much of Thursday morning for eastern ocean zone because of this.

Winds and seas increase Friday and Friday night ahead of low pressure, which is expected to pass through or nearby during Saturday morning or early afternoon. SCA conds will be possible on the ocean by the end of the day Friday, eventually become probable Friday night and remain likely throughout Saturday. For the remaining waters, there is a chance that gusts do not reach 25 kt up to this point. Models disagree with the track of the center of the storm and how potent it will be, but best chances of gusts this high would be late Friday night/early Saturday morning should they occur.

Winds then pick up from the west on Saturday night and Sunday behind the storm. SCA conds likely for all waters, and potentially gales Sunday into Sunday night on the ocean, eastern LI Sound and the eastern LI bays. Winds and seas subside on Monday with the approach of a high pressure ridge, but possibly still within advisory criteria for a portion of the day.

HYDROLOGY. No hydrologic issues are expected with mainly snow this Friday.

1.00 to 1.50 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts are anticipated from Friday night through Saturday. Minor nuisance flooding will be possible with this event.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. There will be a chance of coastal flooding with the high tide cycle during Saturday morning. This will be due to onshore winds with an approaching storm combined with relatively high astronomical tides due to a nearly full moon. Minor coastal flooding will be possible primarily along the south shore back bays of Long Island, where even moderate coastal flooding is a possibility at least along the Nassau County bays. Minor flooding will also be possible along NY Harbor and parts of Western Long Island Sound. Confidence is not high at this point as the event is still a few days away, and shifts in storm's track and/or timing would change the flooding potential.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still operating at reduced power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ330-335- 338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ353-355. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for ANZ350.

SYNOPSIS . JC/JP NEAR TERM . JP SHORT TERM . JP LONG TERM . JC AVIATION . PW MARINE . JC/JP HYDROLOGY . JC/JP TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 1 mi70 min WSW 14 G 16 37°F 44°F1028.1 hPa (+2.7)
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 13 mi70 min 37°F 46°F1027.8 hPa (+2.8)
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 13 mi70 min W 16 G 24 38°F 1027.2 hPa (+2.7)
MHRN6 14 mi70 min WSW 13 G 17
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 15 mi70 min 37°F 46°F1027.6 hPa (+2.7)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 18 mi90 min W 18 G 21 39°F 1027.6 hPa31°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 26 mi70 min WNW 22 G 26 38°F 44°F1027.1 hPa (+2.1)
44022 - Execution Rocks 32 mi40 min WSW 19 G 25 38°F 32°F25°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 40 mi50 min WSW 21 G 27 39°F 2 ft26°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 46 mi70 min WNW 8 G 11 36°F 42°F1029.3 hPa (+3.3)
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 48 mi140 min WSW 16 G 19 39°F 49°F3 ft1025.7 hPa (+0.8)

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY17 mi79 minW 1610.00 miA Few Clouds36°F27°F70%1027.4 hPa
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ18 mi79 minSW 11 G 1810.00 miA Few Clouds36°F24°F62%1027.4 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY21 mi79 minWSW 710.00 miFair36°F23°F59%1026.7 hPa
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ22 mi74 minWSW 810.00 miFair31°F28°F92%1028.5 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY22 mi79 minW 16 G 2310.00 miA Few Clouds38°F21°F51%1026.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KJFK

Wind History from JFK (wind in knots)
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NW9NW12NW12NW15N7N6N8N6NE5N6NW5N5NE3SW4SW9SW12W15W16W19
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1 day agoS16S15S12SW11SW15SW10SW10SW10SW9SW5S5S6S6S4SW6W6W12W9SW9SW9SW12W9W7W12
2 days agoSW5CalmCalmS3SW6W4CalmCalmE3E4NE5E5E3S17
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Tide / Current Tables for Sandy Hook, New Jersey (2) (expired 1994-12-31)
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Sandy Hook
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:37 AM EST     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:21 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 06:52 AM EST     5.38 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 01:24 PM EST     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:18 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:29 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:16 PM EST     4.46 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0-0.10.51.73.14.35.15.44.93.82.51.30.4-0.1-0.10.71.833.94.44.33.42.31.1

Tide / Current Tables for The Narrows, Midchannel, New York Harbor, New York Current (2)
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The Narrows
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:13 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:52 AM EST     2.09 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 06:21 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:03 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 12:23 PM EST     -2.21 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:07 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:18 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:29 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:19 PM EST     1.57 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 09:13 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.9-1.5-0.9-0.20.91.82.11.81.20.1-1-1.8-2.2-2.1-1.6-1-0.111.51.51.10.2-0.8-1.5

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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