Sunrise 5:54 AM   Sunset 8:02 PM Moonrise 3:04 AM   Moonset 3:05 PM

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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 102 Pm Edt Sat May 4 2024
This afternoon - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Tonight - E winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Slight chance of showers in the evening, then chance of showers after midnight. Sun - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Sun night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers.Mon - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers likely, mainly in the morning. Mon night - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Tue - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers. Wed night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.

ANZ300 102 Pm Edt Sat May 4 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - High pressure remains in place along the new england coast into tonight. A cold front then slowly approaches from the west on Sunday, eventually tracking through the region Monday. The boundary likely stalls to our south Monday afternoon through Wednesday before returning as a warm front late in the week.

FXUS61 KPHI 041420 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1020 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure over New England will maintain an onshore flow through the next few days. A series of cold fronts approaches from the west through the weekend, with the second (and stronger of the two) front stalling out nearby by early next week. The stalled front lifts north as a warm front at some point in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe, bringing a return to above normal temperatures.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
10 AM update...Made some tweaks to forecast based on latest guidance, but not a whole lot changed, just nudged temps down, cloud cover up. POPs are tricky given showers seem to be progressing a bit faster than most guidance, with the GGEM being somewhat closer to reality it would appear. Even the GGEM has the first band dying out over southern NJ in the next few hours, so won't get too aggressive with POPs today just yet, especially given its quite light rain. That said, if this trend continues, might have to make some more upward adjustments across the area as the rain doesn't seem like its too eager to stop moving northeast.

Previous discussion...
Scattered showers continue over portions of Delmarva, though lightning has ended, and showers are not producing the brief downpours they did earlier. These showers will continue to wind down this morning.

The base of high pressure centered over New England extends down into the Mid-Atlantic. An old warm front lies over the Appalachians, and a cold front is moving through the Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley. High pressure slowly lifts to the north and east throughout the day today and into tonight.
Several shortwaves will approach from the west, pushing those frontal boundaries towards the local forecast area.

Some marine stratus will continue to spread over portions of New Jersey and southern Delaware. That stratus will dissipate later this morning, but skies remain cloudy through the day as showers continue to develop well west of the region. Those showers will slowly track east, not making it into the far western portions of the forecast area until late in the afternoon and early evening. A cool day with highs in the 50s to low 60s, which will be some 10 to 15 degrees below normal for this time of year.

Best chances for showers will be during the overnight period tonight, mainly for inland areas as those frontal boundaries wash out as they approach.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A cold front approaches from the west on Sunday. With a slower approach, showers will mainly be north and west of the Philly metro through the morning, before pushing over the rest of the area through the afternoon and evening. The marine airmass in place will keep things stable, and really not expecting much in terms of thunder or heavy rainfall Sunday/Sunday night. Rainfall amounts will generally be around a quarter to three quarters of an inch of rain, spread out over a rather large period, so not expecting much in terms of hydro concerns. Temperatures will be in the upper 50s/low 60s, though some spots in the Delmarva will get into the upper 60s/low 70s. Temperatures won't drop much on Sunday Night, likely staying in the 50s.

For Monday, temperatures moderate as a weak west/southwesterly flow takes over. The first of several shortwaves next week is expected to traverse the area, with some showers and thunderstorms potentially developing in the afternoon and evening. Some of the model soundings show decent instability with marginal shear, so can't rule out a strong to severe thunderstorm late Monday. However, not expecting the threat to be widespread at all. Will continue to monitor as we get in range of CAM guidance. Best chance to see any convection will be over Delmarva and southern New Jersey. Temperatures will be in the upper 70s/low 80s on Monday with mid to upper 50s/low 60s on Monday Night.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Unsettled conditions are expected for most of the week as a rather progressive pattern will be in place. Several shortwaves are expected to pass over the region. Lift will also be aided by a stalled boundary bisecting the area that will meander for the middle and end of next week. The front looks to venture northward on Tuesday into Wednesday, resulting in a period of above normal temperatures with upper 70s/low 80s expected. With a relatively warm and moist airmass in place, incoming shortwaves could potentially spark some showers and thunderstorms Tuesday/Wednesday PM. Wednesday afternoon/evening looks to be the most active in terms of convective weather, though too early to see if severe weather is on the table.

The stalled boundary retreats southward towards the end of the week with onshore flow likely taking over, at least along the coastal plain. Depending on where this stalled boundary sets up will have implications on temperatures and thunderstorm potential on Thursday/Friday. Areas near and east of the front will be under the influence of the marine layer with cooler and more stable air, while areas west of the boundary are more unstable with warmer temperatures. A deepening trough will begin to move into the Mid- Atlantic, with a series of shortwaves/frontal systems moving through both Thursday/Friday.
Both days will feature temperatures near/below normal, depending on where this lingering boundary sets up.

Important to note that there remains a lot of uncertainty with the long-term forecast as models tend to struggle with a progressive pattern like this, and the placement of this boundary that will hang around through next week. As mentioned before, where that boundary sets up will have large implications on the forecast. We look to potentially shake this unsettled pattern once a sweeping cold front comes through late next week/early next weekend.

AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of Today...Most CIGs have lifted to VFR, though MVFR/IFR conditions at KACY will remain MVFR/IFR for most of the day.
Slowed progress of MVFR return, but will need to watch progress of rain as there are lower cigs further west where rain has been falling longer, though guidance mostly indicates this first round should dissipate toward midday. MVFR CIGs will spread from west to east starting at KRDG/KABE tonight. E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Low confidence.

Tonight...MVFR/IFR conditions in stratus/BR/SHRA tonight. E winds 5 to 10 kt. Low confidence.

Outlook...

Sunday through Sunday Night...MVFR/IFR conditions expected with low ceilings. Reduced visibility likely with showers.

Monday through Monday Night...Conditions gradually improve as the day goes on, likely back to VFR, though some showers/thunderstorms develop for the afternoon/evening, with restrictions possible if any storms move over the terminals.

Tuesday through Tuesday Night...Primarily VFR though some restrictions possible with 20-40% chance of SHRA.

Wednesday...Sub-VFR conditions possible (30-50%) with scattered showers/thunderstorms expected, especially in the afternoon/evening.

MARINE
Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions on tap today and tonight with E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt and 3 to 4 ft seas.
There is the potential for localized marine dense fog early this morning for areas south of Little Egg Inlet. Otherwise, mostly cloudy. Some showers may result in VSBY restrictions tonight.

Outlook...

Sunday through Wednesday...No long-fused marine headlines anticipated, though periods of showers/thunderstorms possible on the waters.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

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