Friday, January24, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Fire Island, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 5:01PM Friday January 24, 2020 11:37 AM EST (16:37 UTC) Moonrise 8:10AMMoonset 5:48PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 1119 Am Est Fri Jan 24 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon...
This afternoon..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tonight..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight.
Sat..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of rain in the morning, then rain in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves around 2 ft. Rain in the evening.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sun night..W winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..NW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 1119 Am Est Fri Jan 24 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure retreats to the northeast today as developing low pressure approaches from the southwest tonight. Low pressure will then track across the region through the weekend and into the canadian maritimes on Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fire Island, NY
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location: 40.61, -73.23     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 241621 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1121 AM EST Fri Jan 24 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure retreats to the northeast this afternoon as developing low pressure approaches from the southwest tonight. Low pressure will then track across the region Saturday, through Maine on Sunday, and into the Maritimes on Monday. A broad area of high pressure should then bring fair weather to the region through the middle of the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Adjusted high temperatures up a few degrees, specifically across portions of urban NE NJ, NYC metro, and western Long Island. The expectation is that highs will reach the upper 40s and lower 50s here, with middle to upper 40s elsewhere.

Middle and upper ridge axis overhead is helping in limiting cloud cover. Surface high pressure over New England will also gradually retreat to the northeast through the day. Partly cloudy skies are anticipated for the rest of the day.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. A closed upper low slowly lifts towards the Great Lakes tonight and then gradually slides to the east through Saturday. A vertically stacked low will meander near the Great Lakes region. As the upper low nears and upper level ridge axis slides east, a secondary low pressure will develop across the Mid- Atlantic tonight. The secondary low will move across the region through Saturday.

The first concern for tonight will revolve around whether there will be any frozen precipitation across the NW interior. Much of the model guidance holds off precipitation until after 12z Saturday, but if any light precip does develop, it could be in the form of light freezing rain or sleet. Based on forecast soundings, saturation is initially shallow with plenty of dry air to overcome. At this time, not expecting any snow to develop. Once lift and moisture increase Saturday morning, mid level warming will prevent any snow as well. The secondary low and corridor of strong lift and deep moisture will move across the region from west to east from late morning through the afternoon. Models have continued to come into good agreement on this scenario. There could be a brief period of freezing rain at the onset in the morning across the far NW interior as surface temperatures look to be near 32 degrees initially, but this is expected to be brief and a predominately a plain rain event area wide. The NAM/NAM3-km continues to be the coldest at the onset, but any lingering temperatures at or below freezing will be quick to rise due to increase E-SE flow.

The other concern will be the quick hitting moderate to heavy rain, mainly in the afternoon due to a subtropical feed of moisture and PWATs around an inch. The axis of moisture and lift will move quickly across the region and a dry slot in the mid levels will move overhead ending the rain in the evening. The quick nature of the system should prevent any flooding concerns, but minor nuisance flooding is possible.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Some slight chances for rain and snow showers across the Orange county extremities for Sunday and Sunday night as lake moisture attempts to reach the forecast area. There could be a stray sprinkle or flurry elsewhere, but the probability was too low to include in the forecast. The forecast has then been kept dry through Thursday with a broad area of high pressure building in. The NBM with local modifications was used for temperatures.

AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. VFR with high pressure over the terminals today which slides east tonight. VFR conditions give way to MVFR very late tonight for most terminals (mainly after 06Z) as an area of low pressure approaches from the southwest. Potential for IFR conditions for the city terminals after 12Z Sat. Precipitation moves in after 13Z Saturday. It will be plain rain for most terminals, with the exception of KSWF, where a brief period mix of freezing rain and sleet is possible until around 15Z Saturday. Thereafter, plain rain is expected.

Light winds continue today, but gradually become E, slowly increasing to around 10 kt for the city and coastal terminals after 06Z Saturday. Winds continue to increase through the morning Saturday, with sustained winds of 20 kt and gusts to 25 kt by late Saturday morning into the early afternoon. Winds will be increasing aloft as well, with SE wind shear of 50 kt at 2000 ft around the same time

NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support .

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts, can be found at: http:/weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is GREEN, which implies slant range visibility P6SM outside of cloud.

KLGA TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is GREEN, which implies slant range visibility P6SM outside of cloud.

KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN, which implies slant range visibility P6SM outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. Saturday. MVFR/IFR in rain at the coast, mixed precipitation across the interior changing to rain. E winds 10-20G20-25 kt during the day with LLWS possible. Winds diminish at night. Sunday. MVFR/IFR possible in lingering showers. Rain or snow showers possible across the interior. Monday-Tuesday. VFR.

MARINE. Strengthening easterly flow will bring ocean waters to SCA levels by early Saturday. Therefore, an SCA will go into effect for the ocean waters. There could be a brief period in the early afternoon where gale force gusts could occur, mainly on the ocean. Wind gusts fall below 25 kt by Saturday night as the system pulls away, however seas will be to slow to subside.

It is likely that 5 ft or greater seas on the ocean will continue through the day on Sunday and probably into a good portion of Monday. Sub-sca conds on all waters are then anticipated for Monday night and Tuesday.

HYDROLOGY. An inch to an inch and a half of rainfall is expected Saturday through Saturday night. No significant hydrologic impacts are anticipated however nuisance flooding is possible during the afternoon when a period of moderate rain is possible.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. There remains some uncertainty regarding the magnitude of any coastal flooding on Saturday.

For the morning and very early afternoon high tide cycle: The most vulnerable areas along the South Shore Bays may see high tide too early to match up with the strongest winds ahead of the low. This window before peak winds is too narrow to bank on at this point however, so the forecast leans towards more of a worst case scenario, and a watch has been issued for srn Nassau. For the remaining areas, a statement has been issued for those areas that are expected to exceed or come close to minor flood thresholds. Some of these areas may be upgraded to an advisory depending on the evolution of the system.

For the evening high tide cycle: Some minor flooding is possible, again the South Shore Bays are most susceptible, due to lingering water levels and the impact of the rain. If the low slows at all, the risk will increase due to the locked in east flow.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still operating at reduced power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . Coastal Flood Watch Saturday morning for NYZ179. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 6 PM EST Saturday for ANZ330- 335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Saturday to 6 AM EST Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.

SYNOPSIS . CB NEAR TERM . CB/DS SHORT TERM . CB LONG TERM . AVIATION . BC/JP MARINE . CB HYDROLOGY . CB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 25 mi48 min 9.7 G 12 44°F 45°F4 ft1029 hPa (+0.6)
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 30 mi53 min E 7.8 G 9.7 40°F 30°F
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 30 mi38 min ENE 9.7 G 12 43°F 1029.1 hPa (+0.4)35°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 32 mi53 min NNE 7.8 G 7.8 38°F 32°F34°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 32 mi68 min NE 7 G 8 37°F 40°F1030 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 39 mi68 min E 5.1 G 7 42°F 38°F1028.9 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 42 mi68 min 43°F 42°F1029.3 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 42 mi68 min E 5.1 G 8 43°F 37°F1029.6 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 44 mi68 min WNW 2.9 G 4.1 42°F 1029.2 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 49 mi68 min 41°F 41°F1029.4 hPa
MHRN6 49 mi68 min N 1.9 G 2.9

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY13 mi45 minENE 310.00 miFair49°F24°F38%1029.1 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY15 mi1.7 hrsNE 610.00 miPartly Cloudy45°F23°F42%1029.2 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY24 mi1.7 hrsN 010.00 miFair44°F26°F49%1029.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFRG

Wind History from FRG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW6W4W3CalmS3SE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmNE3N3NE3E4E3
1 day agoW4Calm3W4CalmN3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmN4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3W5SW5
2 days agoN12N8N11N12N9N7N4CalmN5N5N3CalmW3N3NW3CalmCalmCalmN3CalmN4CalmN3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Fire Island Radiobeacon, Long Island, New York
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Fire Island Radiobeacon
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:29 AM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:09 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 08:05 AM EST     0.80 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:11 PM EST     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:44 PM EST     New Moon
Fri -- 04:48 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:00 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:30 PM EST     0.65 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.1-0-00.10.30.50.70.80.80.60.50.30.1-0-0.1-00.10.30.50.60.60.60.4

Tide / Current Tables for Point o' Woods, Long Island, New York
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Point o' Woods
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:42 AM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:09 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:46 AM EST     0.80 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:24 PM EST     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:44 PM EST     New Moon
Fri -- 04:47 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:59 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 10:11 PM EST     0.65 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.20.1-0-00.10.20.40.60.80.80.70.60.40.20-0.1-0.10.10.20.40.60.60.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.