Monday, October21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bellmore, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 6:06PM Monday October 21, 2019 3:42 AM EDT (07:42 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 2:28PM Illumination 48% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ355 Sandy Hook Nj To Fire Island Inlet Ny Out 20 Nm- 325 Am Edt Mon Oct 21 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt this afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt this morning. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Tonight..NE winds around 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Tue..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Chance of light rain in the afternoon.
Tue night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Rain.
Wed..W winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri night..W winds around 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
ANZ300 325 Am Edt Mon Oct 21 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure moves offshore today as high pressure builds from southeast canada. A cold front approaches Tuesday and moves across the region Tuesday night. High pressure will follow for Wednesday and Thursday, then another cold front will pass through on Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bellmore, NY
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location: 40.62, -73.51     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 210726
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
326 am edt Mon oct 21 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure moves offshore today as high pressure builds from
southeast canada. A cold front approaches Tuesday and moves across
the region Tuesday night. High pressure will follow for Wednesday
and Thursday, then another cold front will pass through on
Friday. High pressure on Saturday and early Sunday should give
way to another low pressure system later Sunday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Deeper moisture continues to work its way to the east early this
morning as low pressure passes to our south. While the middle and
upper levels are drying out, the low levels remain saturated. Some
patchy fog is possible, especially across the interior through
around day break.

Otherwise, surface high pressure builds from southeast canada along
with ridging aloft. Lingering low clouds will clear this morning
with mostly sunny skies expected for the remainder of the day. High
temperatures will be a few degrees above normal in the lower to
middle 60s.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Tuesday night
Ridging at the surface will remain in place tonight, but the upper
level ridge axis slides offshore by daybreak Tuesday. SW flow aloft
along with some low level warm advection should help increase
clouds, especially after midnight. Low temperatures fall into the
lower and middle 40s inland to the upper 40s and low 50s near the
coast. It appears temperatures may fall quickest early in the night
and then may fall slower or level off as clouds increase after
midnight.

An approaching middle and upper level trough on Tuesday will send a
cold front towards the area. The trend in the model guidance has
been to slow the timing of the front and associated rain until
Tuesday night. The daytime hours on Tuesday should remain mostly dry
with just a chance of light rain due to weak lift from low level
warm advection. Forecast soundings indicate saturation in the
lowest 5 kft with a fairly large layer of middle level dry air.

This middle level dry layer does not saturate until the actual
frontal system and stronger middle level dynamics near Tuesday
night.

The consensus of the latest guidance has the front entering western
zones after 00z Wednesday and then slowly working its way east
through the rest of the night. The GFS appears to be struggling with
the placement of the dynamics and where a wave of low pressure may
exist along the front. Have sided with the better consistency of the
nam and ecmwf. While the strongest dynamics may pass just to our n,
there should be a band of rain along and ahead of the front that
lifts through the region. The front and rain should be moving
offshore by early Wednesday morning. Rainfall amounts of 0.50 to
0.75 inches are possible across the interior with 0.25 to 0.50
inches elsewhere. Locally higher amounts are possible if any heavier
downpours develop. Instability is weak and have opted to leave
mention of thunder out of the forecast.

Long term Wednesday through Sunday
High pressure builds into the region on Wednesday behind a departing
cold front, and is expected to dominate through most of Friday. A
cold front then approaches daytime Friday and passes across the area
Friday night that could bring a chance of showers mainly inland.

Another area of low pressure approaches late in the weekend or early
next week. There are some timing issues with respect to the 00z gfs
and ECMWF models. For now, will limit pops to just chance with an
increasing chance of rain chances on Sunday into Sunday night.

Temperatures should be at or slightly above normal Wednesday
through Friday. Slightly cooler than normal temperatures are
then likely for next weekend, behind the cold front.

Aviation 07z Monday through Friday
High pressure builds into the region today.

Mostly MVFR to start, then improving toVFR across the
terminals as the morning push progresses. RemainingVFR into the
evening.

Ne-n winds averaging around 10kt. Some gusts 15-20kt will be
possible mainly for klga kjfk kisp kbdr kgon and mainly during
the morning hours. Winds veer more ene late aftn early eve.

Outlook for 06z Tuesday through Friday
Monday night MVFR towards daybreak.

Tuesday MVFR ifr. Sct -shra daytime then rain at night.

Wednesday-Thursday Vfr. Chc W gusts 20-25kt on weds.

Friday Chc MVFR and rain pm.

Marine
Low pressure will move offshore today. The pressure gradient on the
backside of the low will bring gusts up to 25 kt on the ocean waters
with the best chance through early afternoon. Ocean seas will
remain elevated between 5 and 7 feet through tonight. The small
craft advisory has been extended through 10z Tuesday. A cold
front approaches on Tuesday and then moves across the Tuesday
night. Ocean seas should remain elevated, but winds on the
waters will likely be 20 kt or less.

Elevated ocean seas are likely to persist into Wednesday and
possibly even into Wednesday evening before subsiding as high
pressure builds over the waters. There may also be some wind
gusts over 25 kt on the ocean on Wednesday in the wake of a cold
front. Sub-sca conditions are then expected through Friday.

Another chance of SCA conditions will be on Friday night, behind
another cold frontal passage.

Hydrology
No hydrologic impacts are expected through Tuesday afternoon.

There are currently no hydrologic impacts anticipated with
rainfall of 1 3 to 3 4 inches Tuesday evening and Tuesday night.

Locally higher amounts are possible.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) remains off the
air.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Tuesday for anz350-353-355.

Synopsis... Bc ds
near term... Ds
short term... Ds
long term... Bc
aviation... Jc
marine... Bc ds
hydrology... Bc ds
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 19 mi54 min ENE 13 G 17 55°F 61°F1015.5 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 20 mi42 min NNE 23 G 27 56°F 62°F1013.3 hPa (-0.8)53°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 22 mi57 min NNE 14 G 19 54°F 32°F51°F
44069 23 mi57 min NNE 14 G 19 54°F 56°F51°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 24 mi57 min NNE 14 G 19 55°F 2 ft49°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 27 mi54 min 54°F 62°F1014.9 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 28 mi54 min NNE 14 G 21 54°F 58°F1014.9 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 30 mi54 min N 15 G 19 54°F 1014.6 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 31 mi52 min NNE 23 G 27 58°F 62°F7 ft1011.9 hPa (-1.2)
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 34 mi60 min 60°F1015.3 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 42 mi60 min NNE 7 G 9.9 60°F1014.6 hPa

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY9 mi49 minNE 1310.00 miOvercast54°F48°F83%1014.2 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY15 mi51 minNNE 1210.00 miMostly Cloudy53°F52°F96%1014.8 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY23 mi51 minN 1010.00 miOvercast54°F48°F80%1015.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFRG

Wind History from FRG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmN4NE4CalmCalmE5SE6SE8SE8SE6E6E4E6E6NE6NE6NE10NE9NE9NE10NE11NE10NE13
1 day agoW3CalmNW3CalmW3NW5N6NW5Calm4SW8S10SW8SW7SW6S4CalmNE3N3NE3CalmN3CalmCalm
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Tide / Current Tables for Green Island, Long Island, New York
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Green Island
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:09 AM EDT     1.70 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:41 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Mon -- 09:10 AM EDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:27 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:17 PM EDT     2.05 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:29 PM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.31.61.71.61.410.70.50.40.40.71.11.61.9221.81.410.70.40.30.3

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:13 AM EDT     0.84 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 02:25 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:15 AM EDT     -0.59 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 07:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:41 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Mon -- 08:42 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 12:40 PM EDT     0.87 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 02:29 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:01 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 06:46 PM EDT     -0.59 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 09:15 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.70.2-0.1-0.3-0.5-0.6-0.5-0.20.10.20.40.70.80.40-0.2-0.3-0.5-0.6-0.4-0.10.10.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.