Sunday, December15, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Baldwin Harbor, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 4:29PM Sunday December 15, 2019 6:10 AM EST (11:10 UTC) Moonrise 9:08PMMoonset 11:13AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ355 Sandy Hook Nj To Fire Island Inlet Ny Out 20 Nm- 355 Am Est Sun Dec 15 2019
.gale warning in effect through this evening...
Today..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
Tonight..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 8 ft, subsiding to 3 to 5 ft after midnight.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Chance of snow in the morning, then snow, rain, sleet and freezing rain likely in the afternoon.
Mon night..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain and light snow likely in the evening, then rain after midnight.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Rain.
Tue night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Chance of rain in the evening.
Wed..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
ANZ300 355 Am Est Sun Dec 15 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Strong low pressure departs to the north today, while high pressure builds in to the west of the area. High pressure moves over the the region tonight, slowly retreating to the north Monday into Monday night. A low pressure system will then affect the waters Monday afternoon through Tuesday. High pressure returns for Wednesday and Thursday, but with a cold front moving through Wednesday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Baldwin Harbor, NY
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location: 40.63, -73.59     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 150940 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 440 AM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure builds in from the west today as low pressure continues to track well to the north. High pressure briefly builds over the region tonight, then drifts offshore Monday. A low pressure system impacts the region Monday through Tuesday, departing to the northeast Tuesday night. High pressure builds into the region on Wednesday and remains over the area through the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY/. The deep upper closed low that affected to the region Saturday will continue to track through eastern Canada as the flow across the area becomes zonal. Meanwhile the next shortwave to affect the region will be amplifying into the intermountain southwest. With a zonal, progressive flow, this shortwave will quickly translate eastward. However, there remains uncertainty as to the timing of this system.

Meanwhile weak surface ridging builds into the area today as the developing surface low tracks through the southern plains and into the lower Mississippi Valley. With a strong pressure gradient between the departing low to the north and high pressure to the west, strong and gusty westerly winds are expected. These winds and gusts will diminish early this evening as the surface high builds into the area. The high will be over the area through tonight, with the center of the high shifting off the Mid Atlantic coast toward morning. The high will keep the frontal system suppressed to the south with precipitation remaining to the southwest of the area 12Z Monday.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY/. While the guidance has come into a little better agreement with the shortwave tracking toward the area, there still remains uncertainty with the track of the low. The latest trend has been a shift a little farther to the south. And later guidance may continue this trend or even shift the low back to the north. The uncertainty will have impacts to the timing and type of precipitation across the forecast area.

With the latest trends have held off the timing of the precipitation as the high shows weak signals of damming, keeping cold air across the northern tier. So, will have likely probabilities after 18Z and only across the far southern zones with low end chance probabilities reaching much of the area by later Monday afternoon.

With cold air in place precipitation will be in the form of light snow. And then with warmer air moving in along the coast, especially aloft, a mix of rain, snow, and sleet will be possible late day. There may even be pockets of light freezing rain across northeastern New Jersey and into northern portions of New York City.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. STORM SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY .

Timing and placement differences remain with the track of the low through Tuesday night with the GFS a little quicker and farther north than the ECMWF. Thus confidence is on the low end with precipitation types across the region. And the NAM was showing colder lower levels as a warm layer moves in aloft, with a strengthening warm frontal boundary. So, used a blend for precipitation types Monday night through Tuesday. With the possibility of colder surface air remaining Monday night into Tuesday, there may be more freezing rain closer to the coast than currently forecast. While inland may be predominately freezing rain.

The low will be tracking well east of the area Tuesday night with the precipitation quickly ending. Drying conditions are expected by later Tuesday night as the low deepens and accelerates northeast to eventually southeast of Nova Scotia by early Wednesday.

For the rest of the long term, high pressure starts to build back into the region on Wednesday and will remain over the area through the end of the week. Expect dry conditions with temperatures below normal. Low pressure may impact the area over the weekend.

AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Strong low pressure tracks north through eastern Canada today, with weak high pressure building into the region tonight. A weak area of low pressure approaches the region Monday.

Main concern will be gusty W winds, sustained 20-25ktG30-35kt today, with an isolated peak gusts to 40 kt possible. Winds and gusts gradually subside through the evening push, diminishing late tonight.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z Tonight THROUGH THURSDAY. Late tonight. VFR. Monday. MVFR/IFR conds in light snow possible, mainly in the afternoon for the NYC/NJ metros. Monday night. IFR or lower likely. NYC metros and eastern terminals, wintry mix gradually changing to plain rain late. KEWR/KTEB wintry mix to freezing rain or rain. KHPN/KSWF/KBDR wintry mix, including freezing rain. Tuesday. IFR or lower conds. Wintry mix, possibly changing back to snow at KSWF before ending. Freezing rain/rain at KBDR/KEWR/KTEB/KHPN, possibly changing to wintry mix before ending late. Rain for NYC and eastern terminals, possibly changing to wintry mix before ending late. N gusts to 20kt Tue afternoon. Tuesday night. VFR. NW winds G20kt NYC metros/KISP mainly eve. Wednesday. VFR. NW winds G25kt mainly afternoon. Thursday. VFR.

MARINE. Gale force wind gusts today, subsiding this evening, and falling below SCA by late tonight. Ocean seas will be a bit slower to respond with residual s/se swells, but should fall below SCA from w to e through Monday morning.

Sub-SCA condition expected through Tuesday morning, with SCA conditions becoming increasingly likely late Tuesday, and then likely all waters Tuesday Night through Thursday. Potential for a period of gale conditions on the ocean waters Wednesday Night with passage of an arctic front.

HYDROLOGY. Remaining flooding concerns are for the larger stem rivers in CT with a combination of the recent rainfall and melting snow to the north.

Another significant precipitation event is likely Monday through Tuesday, with liquid equivalent QPF of 0.5 to 1.25 inches possible. There is uncertainty in this amount given uncertainty in the track of the low and frontal positions.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still operating at reduced power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ335-338-345. Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ330-340-350- 353-355.

SYNOPSIS . 19 NEAR TERM . 19 SHORT TERM . 19 LONG TERM . JM/19 AVIATION . NV MARINE . NV HYDROLOGY . 19 EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 16 mi53 min NW 16 G 21 44°F 44°F1002.9 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 19 mi56 min WSW 16 G 19 44°F 32°F35°F
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 19 mi41 min W 23 G 29 45°F 1004.2 hPa35°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 23 mi53 min 43°F 45°F1003.3 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 25 mi53 min W 22 G 26 44°F 1003 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 25 mi53 min W 20 G 27 44°F 44°F1004 hPa
44069 27 mi41 min W 16 G 19 42°F 40°F37°F
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 29 mi53 min 44°F 44°F1003.5 hPa
MHRN6 30 mi53 min W 20 G 28
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 35 mi81 min W 27 G 35 47°F 51°F10 ft1002 hPa (+4.0)
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 43 mi65 min W 4.1 G 16 44°F 44°F1000 hPa

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY10 mi20 minW 15 G 2510.00 miMostly Cloudy43°F33°F68%1004.3 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY12 mi18 minW 1410.00 miA Few Clouds44°F30°F60%1003.4 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY19 mi20 minW 18 G 2710.00 miPartly Cloudy and Breezy44°F30°F58%1003.5 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY23 mi20 minWSW 12 G 1910.00 miPartly Cloudy43°F30°F63%1003.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KJFK

Wind History from JFK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS10S9CalmSE4CalmSE4SE6SE11S18S20S17SW16
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1 day agoNE6N4E3SE8SE8SE8E7NE6NE6NE6N7NE6NE7NE10E14E13
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Tide / Current Tables for Freeport, Baldwin Bay, Long Island, New York
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Freeport
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:30 AM EST     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:12 AM EST     3.45 feet High Tide
Sun -- 10:13 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:27 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:19 PM EST     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:07 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:02 PM EST     2.79 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.21.50.80.3-0.1-00.51.52.53.23.43.32.92.21.40.60.1-0.2-0.10.51.32.12.62.8

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:49 AM EST     -0.74 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:23 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:13 AM EST     1.00 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 10:14 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 10:37 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 02:15 PM EST     -0.70 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:28 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 04:46 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:08 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:38 PM EST     0.97 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 10:56 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.4-0.7-0.7-0.6-0.20.20.30.610.80.3-0.1-0.3-0.5-0.7-0.6-0.30.10.30.50.90.90.5-0

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.