Wednesday, August12, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Baldwin Harbor, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:01AMSunset 7:57PM Wednesday August 12, 2020 8:18 PM EDT (00:18 UTC) Moonrise 12:06AMMoonset 2:37PM Illumination 34% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ355 Sandy Hook Nj To Fire Island Inlet Ny Out 20 Nm- 623 Pm Edt Wed Aug 12 2020
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt, diminishing to around 5 kt late. Seas around 2 ft. Slight chance of showers and tstms after midnight. Chance of showers and slight chance of tstms late.
Thu..SE winds around 5 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers. Chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Thu night..S winds around 5 kt, becoming E around 5 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers.
Fri night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat night..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sun..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Chance of showers.
Sun night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Chance of showers.
Mon..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..S winds around 5 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 623 Pm Edt Wed Aug 12 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A slow moving cold front will sit near the waters through Thursday. The front will then pass south Thursday night and then stall to the south Friday as high pressure builds to the north. The front returns as a warm front Sunday. A cold front is expected through the waters Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Baldwin Harbor, NY
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location: 40.63, -73.59     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 122350 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 750 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020

SYNOPSIS. A slow moving cold front will sink just to the south of the region tonight, and remain through Friday. High pressure builds from the north Friday night and Saturday. The high moves east Sunday as a warm front approaches. A cold front passes through the region Monday, followed by another weak cold front Tuesday. High pressure returns Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/. The region will lie on the southern edge of westerlies with a weak northern stream shortwave moving east this evening, and shearing southern low vort energy streaming into the region tonight.

A few showers and thunderstorms remain along the sea breeze boundary across interior southern Connecticut and into Bergen County New Jersey at 22Z. These will continue to weaken and dissipate with the loss of heating and the weakening convergence along the boundary. The threat of flash flooding has ended and the flash flood watch has been cancelled.

The scattered showers and thunderstorms have helped to lower temperatures across the region, and dew points remain the upper 60s to mid 70s. However, widespread heat indices have fallen below 95, with areas in New Haven county Connecticut still around 95, and these will be lower by 23Z. Therefore the heat advisory has been cancelled.

An approaching shortwave trough should trigger additional convection toward daybreak. Potential for/stratus fog development once again for E LI/SE CT.

With the front bisecting the area, temps inland should fall into the upper 60s, with lows in NYC metro and coastal sections in the lower 70s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. Longwave trough will amplify into New England Thursday into Thursday Night, with stream of southern stream vort energy continuing to work around Bermuda ridge into our area.

Weak frontal boundary likely pushes just south of the region tonight, but could waver near southern portions of the region. With quite a bit of cloud cover, and drier airmass filtering in on NE flow in the wake of the front, there will be less instability to work with on Thursday. Still with vort energy as trigger, potential for scattered downpours and isolated tsra in the vicinity of sea breeze boundary Thu aft/eve. Highest threat will be LI, NYC, coastal NE NJ, and S Westchester and S CT with better moisture/instability return from sea breeze. Due to slow movement of any storms, and moisture pooling in vicinity of sea breeze, isolated flash flood threat exists in these areas.

It should not be quite as warm or humid, with high temps in the lower/mid 80s and dewpoints in the 60s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The upper flow across the Continental United States is less amplified than previous forecasts resulting in a briefly stalled frontal boundary south of the region Friday into Friday night as a ridge builds to the north across the northeast and eastern Canada. This high and upper ridge slides east Sunday as the synoptic flow does begin to amplify with a high amplitude ridge across the western states and extending into the Canadian Pacific while a large trough digs into the northern plains and upper midwest. The surface front passes north as a warm front Sunday, and with the digging trough into the beginning of next week a couple of col frontal passages are expected Monday and Tuesday. With the upper trough remaining Wednesday unsettled weather will be possible, at this time with mainly afternoon convection.

Near seasonal normal temperatures are expected through the extended forecast period.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. A cold front will remain in the vicinity of the region this evening eventually passing to the south and east tonight.

VFR is expected through the majority of the TAF period, outside of shower and thunderstorm activity. Scattered showers and thunderstorms across the NYC terminals have ended for this evening.

Some brief MVFR is possible in stratus tonight along coastal terminals. There is uncertainty in the development of this stratus, but highest probability is for coastal eastern sections such as KISP and KGON.

Winds will be light and variable tonight and most likely through the rest of the TAF period. However, a general northeasterly flow Thursday morning will shift to the S/SE. Coastal seabreezes are forecast for Long Island and Connecticut making for an onshore flow through at least 22Z.

Thursday shower and thunderstorm coverage is uncertain but likely to be less than Wednesday.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. Thursday night. Coastal IFR conditions possible Thursday night. Friday. Chance of showers and thunderstorms with MVFR conditions. Saturday. VFR. Sunday through Monday. Mainly VFR, except MVFR or lower in any showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE. Winds and seas remain below SCA levels through most of Monday. A persistent southeast to south flow late Sunday into Monday will allow for ocean seas east of Fire Island Inlet to build to around 5 feet late Monday and Monday night.

HYDROLOGY. The flash flood watch for this evening has been cancelled.

A low and localized flash flood threat exists Thursday aft/eve, from isolated to scattered slow moving convection.

No hydrologic impacts are expected Friday into early next week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . MET/NV NEAR TERM . MET/NV SHORT TERM . NV LONG TERM . MET AVIATION . JP MARINE . MET/NV HYDROLOGY . MET/NV


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 16 mi48 min S 1.9 G 4.1 81°F 1017 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 19 mi63 min S 1.9 G 1.9 79°F 74°F
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 19 mi28 min SSW 3.9 G 5.8 74°F1 ft1016.4 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 23 mi123 min WSW 5.8 G 5.8 80°F 73°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 23 mi48 min 80°F 78°F1016.8 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 25 mi48 min WSW 6 G 7 82°F 1016.4 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 25 mi48 min W 8 G 11 80°F 81°F1017.2 hPa
44069 27 mi48 min SSW 5.8 G 5.8 78°F 75°F
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 29 mi48 min 82°F 80°F1016.8 hPa
MHRN6 30 mi48 min SW 6 G 8
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 35 mi38 min SSW 7.8 G 9.7 76°F1016.7 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 43 mi48 min WSW 5.1 G 8 83°F 80°F1016 hPa

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY10 mi27 minSW 610.00 miMostly Cloudy80°F71°F74%1016.8 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY12 mi25 minS 610.00 miFair81°F73°F79%1016.9 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY19 mi27 minSW 310.00 miMostly Cloudy85°F71°F63%1016.2 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY23 mi27 minN 010.00 mi80°F73°F79%1016.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KJFK

Wind History from JFK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS15S13S13S10S7S4S5S5S5S4S6S5S6S6S5S6S8S9S7E4SW4SW4SW6SW6
1 day agoS12S7S6S8SW6SW7S6SW5SW4SW4S6S9S6S6S6S8S10S9S12S16
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2 days agoS13S10S7SW8SW6SW7SW7SW7SW8SW6W8SW5SW7SW6S7S8S10S11S11S15S16S17S16S14

Tide / Current Tables for Freeport, Baldwin Bay, Long Island, New York
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Freeport
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:06 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:09 AM EDT     2.54 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:31 AM EDT     0.67 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:37 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:33 PM EDT     2.94 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:44 PM EDT     0.84 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.62.12.42.52.52.11.61.10.80.70.711.52.22.62.92.92.72.21.81.41.10.90.8

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:06 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:54 AM EDT     0.82 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 03:31 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:05 AM EDT     -0.51 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 09:36 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 01:19 PM EDT     0.77 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 02:38 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:40 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:29 PM EDT     -0.54 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:02 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.80.50.1-0.1-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.4-0.10.10.10.40.70.60.2-0.1-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.3-00.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.