Sunrise 5:46 AM   Sunset 7:52 PM Moonrise 3:30 AM   Moonset 2:39 PM

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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 1112 Am Edt Fri May 3 2024
Today - E winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Tonight - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Sat - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Sat night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers after midnight. Sun - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Sun night - SE winds around 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers likely. Mon - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Mon night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Tue - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Tue night - S winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.

ANZ300 1112 Am Edt Fri May 3 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - High pressure builds in from the north today and begins to weaken over the region on Saturday. A cold front then slowly approaches from the west Saturday night and Sunday. The cold front tracks through early Monday, stalling south of the region Tuesday.

FXUS61 KOKX 031526 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1126 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure builds down along the New England coast and into the area, where it will remain nearly stationary into Saturday.
A cold front then slowly approaches from the west Saturday night and Sunday. The cold front tracks through early Monday, stalling south of the region Tuesday. The boundary returns as a warm front on Wednesday, with an associated cold front moving through Thursday. A developing area of low pressure may then approach the region from the west late next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
Springtime in the Northeast, lots of low clouds, fog, and significant variability in temps. For today, expect the low clouds to erode through early afternoon with partly to mostly sunny skies areawide. Temperatures will likely need some fine tuning through the day based on how quickly cloud cover decreases. Regardless, an easterly flow and cooler airmass will keep inland locations much cooler today.

Inland areas farthest away from the cool easterly flow will end up with the warmest temperatures this afternoon - up around 70.
60s otherwise for most other spots. Partly to mostly cloudy, but dry conditions for tonight with lows in the low 50s in the city and 45-50 elsewhere.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A ridge axis aloft will be right over us during Saturday and slow to move. It'll be to our east Sunday morning and continue its slow path east through Sunday night. This will help keep us dry Saturday morning as moisture ahead of an approaching cold front runs into the ridge. Will leave in low chances of a shower west of the Hudson River for Saturday afternoon as per qpf output for a couple of the models as well as NBM, but thinking anything that falls will be relatively brief and light. Rain chances then slowly increase west to east through Saturday night before showers become likely during Sunday into Sunday night. Can't rule out a rumble of thunder Sunday afternoon and night with some elevated CAPE around. Forecast PWATS are not too concerning, so no hydrologic impacts are anticipated with this system. NBM temperatures looked good for the short term period.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A rather active period next week, though not necessarily a washout, with a slow moving front nearby and waves of low pressure helping instigate periodic chances for precipitation into late next week.

Cold front moves through early Monday, leaving weak high pressure to nose in from the north. The front stalls over the Mid-Atlantic as it runs into ridging, eventually returning as a warm front late Tuesday or Wednesday. It's possible a weak wave of low pressure develops along the boundary and passes just south of the region as it tracks offshore Monday night into Tuesday, but global guidance is mixed at this stage in development and placement of the low. As it appears now, best chances of seeing any impacts are along the coast and points south. A relatively quiet afternoon expected Tuesday before PoPs increase once again Tuesday night as the front attempts to lift north toward the region. The region likely sits in the warm sector Wednesday, and soundings hint at convective development ahead of the approaching cold front that could lead to thunderstorms in parts of the region Wed afternoon or evening. A brief dry out behind the fropa before another wave of low pressure attempts to develop as a shortwave swings east into late week, bringing additional chances of rain.

Temperatures should average above normal through Thursday, generally in the 70s most afternoons away from the immediate coastline.
National blended guidance was generally followed for this update, with some subtle adjustments to cap PoPs and bump max Ts a few degrees Mon/Tue.

AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Weak high pressure builds in through the day.

MVFR cigs continue for all terminals except KSWF. Gradual improvement to VFR expected everywhere after 17Z. Cigs may fall once again into early Sat AM with potential stratus development, though confidence is too low to prevail at this time.

An E/NE flow with speeds around 10 kt much of the day.
Occasional gusts up to 20 kt possible thru mid morning before abating. Winds veer to the E/SE in the afternoon. SE winds subside less than 10 kt thru aft/eve push. A general SE flow on Saturday with speeds at or under 10 kt.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Occasional NE gusts up to 20 kt this morning.

Timing of wind shift, and stratus development/dissipation may be off by a couple of hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Saturday: Mainly VFR. Low prob of patchy early AM MVFR stratus.
Slight chance of showers and MVFR conditions in the afternoon, increasing chances overnight.

Sunday...Likely showers, with MVFR or lower conditions. ESE winds G15-20kt.

Monday...VFR.

Tuesday... Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Buoy 44025 and 44065 reporting marginal SCA seas with sea round 5 ft and gusts generally just under 25 kt. This should be short lived with a weakening pressure gradient, thus diminishing winds through tonight.

Otherwise, winds and seas below SCA criteria through the weekend. Winds then increase a little on Sunday well ahead of a cold front.

A weak pressure gradient then maintains sub advisory conditions across the waters through mid next week.

HYDROLOGY
There are currently no hydrologic concerns through the forecast period.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

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West Fire Island
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Fri -- 12:24 AM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:29 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:07 AM EDT     0.65 feet High Tide
Fri -- 12:57 PM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:39 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:50 PM EDT     0.64 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
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West Fire Island, Long Island, New York, Tide feet

Bay Shore
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Fri -- 12:30 AM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:30 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:04 AM EDT     1.00 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:03 PM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:39 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:47 PM EDT     0.99 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bay Shore, Watchogue Creek Entrance, Long Island, New York (2), Tide feet

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