Tuesday, December10, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Saltaire, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 4:26PM Tuesday December 10, 2019 4:50 PM EST (21:50 UTC) Moonrise 4:36PMMoonset 6:13AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 355 Pm Est Tue Dec 10 2019
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming N late. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Patchy fog this evening. Rain. Snow after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Snow in the morning. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu..N winds around 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the afternoon.
Fri night..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm after midnight.
Sat..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less. Rain, mainly in the morning. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight.
Sun..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sun night..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
ANZ300 355 Pm Est Tue Dec 10 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front moves through the region tonight. Arctic high pressure then builds across the region, punctuated only briefly by a secondary cold front that will pass to the north Wednesday night. The high shifts offshore Thursday night with low pressure approaching from the south Friday. This low passes through on Saturday with low pressure building back in on Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saltaire, NY
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location: 40.65, -73.19     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 102056 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 356 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

SYNOPSIS. A cold front moves through the region tonight. Arctic high pressure then builds across the region, punctuated only briefly by a secondary cold front that will pass to the north Wednesday night. The high shifts offshore Thursday night with low pressure approaching from the south Friday. This low passes through on Saturday with low pressure building back in on Sunday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/. Moisture advection is ongoing in broader southwest flow aloft, which combined with subtle vorticity maximums ahead of the parent upper trough will lead to a continuation of precipitation through the night for the area. Main concern into the night will be when the transition to rain/snow and then snow will occur, and how much snow accumulates. At the moment, the cold front is expected to move east of the area by midnight. Guidance has trended towards slower cold advection in its wake, meaning that temperatures will be slower to lower to near freezing and the subsequent transition in precipitation type will be delayed. Regardless, expect a period of snowfall to develop overnight, with impacts to the morning commute before snow comes to an end from west to east by late morning as drier air moves into the area. Although the snow will be wet, reducing accumulations, there is a period where flow briefly strengthens between the retreating high and approaching trough, enhancing forcing for ascent and leading to the potential for at least brief banding. Therefore, snow totals look to be on track, with around 1-2 inches across the lower Hudson Valley, northeastern New Jersey and NYC, and 2-3 elsewhere. Some locally higher amounts may be possible across portions of southern Connecticut.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. Snow gradually comes to an end from west to east by late morning. Given the recent moisture and a strengthening subsidence inversion, some cloud cover may linger across the area through the afternoon, before dry advection gradually leads to its dissipation. Expect temperatures to be below normal in the mid to upper 30s, some 20 degrees colder than Tuesday.

Arctic high pressure then strengthens and builds to the west while a secondary cold front passes to the north Wednesday night. As a result, winds and the subsequent cold advection will strengthen into the overnight, with temperatures falling into the teens to mid 20s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. High pressure ridge shifts closer to the region on Thursday, moves through by late in the day, and then offshore through Friday. Dry weather this period with high temperatures below normal Thursday. Temperatures level out or even rise slightly Thursday night with an increase in clouds and light onshore flow. Some models show low PCPN chances by the end of the morning rush on Friday from around the city to points north and west. Should some PCPN sneak in by this time, there could be some light freezing rain primarily well north and west of the city during the first half of Friday morning. Mid levels are forecast to be dry, so ice nucleation/snow growth does not appear to be likely. Rain chances then increase some more through the rest of the forecast area Friday afternoon with temperatures moderating to near 50 by the end of the day along the coast, and 40s for most other locations.

Low pressure to the south moves closer Friday night is progged to pass over or nearby the forecast area Saturday morning. Rain is expected Friday night and Saturday and could be briefly heavy at times, but primarily moderate in intensity.

High pressure begins to build back in during Saturday night with still a chance of rain showers primarily northwest of the city, and maybe even some snow mixing in over parts of Orange County. Sunday should be dry, and the high pressure system's ridge passing through should keep us dry through Monday. Another low pressure system then approaches from the Ohio Valley Monday night with increasing chances of rain or mixed PCPN into Tuesday.

AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. A cold front will move across the area tonight.

MVFR or lower in showers into this evening. Steady rain will move in this evening. Rain will change to a rain/snow mix and eventually all snow from NW to SE after 03Z. All precipitation changes over to snow in the city around 09-10z with snow ending around 14-15z. It's possible that the rain snow mix continues a little longer if the cold air is slower to filter in behind the front. Some of the snow may fall moderate to locally heavy for a brief period in the morning if any banding sets up. Snowfall amounts could accumulate up to 2 inches. This would lower conditions to LIFR or less. Snow will end and an improvement to MVFR and possibly even VFR is expected late in the 30 hour taf period. Southwesterly winds 10-12kt will turn NW overnight behind the frontal passage.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. Wednesday. IFR or lower possible in snow in the morning, improving to VFR late. Thursday. VFR Friday and Friday night. VFR on Friday, then MVFR possible in developing rain Friday night. Saturday. IFR in rain. LLWS possible. Sunday. Becoming VFR.

MARINE. A cold front moves across the waters tonight. Arctic high pressure then builds across the region, punctuated only briefly by a secondary cold front that will pass to the north Wednesday night. The secondary cold front may allow winds to surge to above SCA levels, with a few gusts close to gale-force possible on the ocean waters Wednesday night. Otherwise, winds gusts will generally remain below 25 kt into the mid week. Seas remain elevated at this time, but will very slowly subside into Wednesday with a brief lull in winds, before building again Wednesday night following the secondary frontal passage.

Winds and seas diminish on Thursday as a ridge of high pressure approaches the waters. Sub-advisory conditions expected by Thursday afternoon and lasting through Friday afternoon as the ridge shifts through and moves offshore. Winds and seas then increase Friday night ahead of low pressure, which is expected to pass through or nearby during Saturday morning. SCA conds are probable on the ocean, and possible on the other waters depending on the exact track of the storm. Winds and seas remain elevated on Sunday behind the storm with the potential of gale force gusts at least on the ocean.

HYDROLOGY. No hydrologic issues are expected with rain through early this evening. The rain mixes with and changes to snow early Wednesday morning. Total liquid equivalent amounts from this morning through Wednesday morning are 0.25 to 0.75 inches.

1-2 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts are anticipated from late Friday/Friday night through Saturday. Minor nuisance flooding will be possible with this event.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still operating at reduced power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 11 AM EST Wednesday for CTZ005>012. NY . Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 11 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ070>075-078>081-176>179. NJ . Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 11 AM EST Wednesday for NJZ006-104-106-108. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ350-353- 355.

SYNOPSIS . JC/MD NEAR TERM . MD SHORT TERM . MD LONG TERM . JC AVIATION . CB MARINE . JC/MD HYDROLOGY . JC/MD EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44069 6 mi66 min SSW 9.7 G 12 48°F 40°F48°F
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 28 mi61 min SW 9.7 G 12 51°F 49°F10 ft1011.1 hPa (+1.8)
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 30 mi66 min SW 5.8 G 7.8 49°F 47°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 32 mi57 min W 8.9 G 9.9 55°F 45°F1010.7 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 33 mi51 min SW 9.7 G 12 51°F 32°F50°F
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 33 mi41 min SSW 9.7 G 12 52°F 1011.2 hPa51°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 36 mi57 min WSW 5.1 G 8.9 1008.8 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 44 mi57 min 54°F 46°F1010.7 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 45 mi57 min SW 11 G 13 54°F 44°F1011.2 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 46 mi57 min SSW 6 G 6 49°F 43°F1008.9 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 46 mi57 min WSW 8.9 G 12 56°F 1010.2 hPa

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY11 mi1.9 hrsSSW 82.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist53°F53°F100%1009.5 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY13 mi58 minSW 88.00 miOvercast55°F52°F90%1010.1 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY21 mi1.9 hrsSW 65.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist54°F51°F90%1010.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KISP

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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1 day agoS6S5S6S5SW4SW7CalmS4SW3SW5CalmCalmN4CalmE3S11
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2 days agoW5W7NW5NW6N5NE3N3N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4S5S7S9S9S9S6

Tide / Current Tables for West Fire Island, Long Island, New York
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West Fire Island
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:13 AM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:13 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:20 AM EST     0.67 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:01 PM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:35 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:25 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:46 PM EST     0.57 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20-000.10.30.50.60.70.70.60.40.30.10-000.20.30.50.50.60.50.4

Tide / Current Tables for Bay Shore, Watchogue Creek Entrance, Long Island, New York (2)
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Bay Shore
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:19 AM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:13 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:17 AM EST     1.03 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:07 PM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:35 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:25 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:43 PM EST     0.88 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.1-000.20.50.70.9110.90.60.40.20.1-00.10.30.50.70.80.90.80.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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