Monday, March1, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Saltaire, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:24AMSunset 5:45PM Monday March 1, 2021 5:42 PM EST (22:42 UTC) Moonrise 9:39PMMoonset 9:00AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 357 Pm Est Mon Mar 1 2021
.gale warning in effect through Tuesday afternoon...
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt late this evening and overnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Slight chance of flurries this evening.
Tue..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 45 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Fri night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 357 Pm Est Mon Mar 1 2021
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A strong cold front will move through this evening. High pressure will then build in for Tuesday and remain in control through the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saltaire, NY
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location: 40.65, -73.19     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 012113 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 413 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

SYNOPSIS. An Arctic front will pass this evening, producing windy and cold conditions through Tuesday. High pressure will then dominate through the week. Low pressure will pass well to the southeast on Sunday, while high pressure returns on Monday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/. The arctic front will reach the CWA by about 00Z, passing offshore shortly thereafter. Strong subsidence will attempt to counterbalance the steepening llvl lapse rates. The modeling appears to be dry because of this, except for portions of the lwr Hudson Valley where the GFS and ECMWF produce a hundredth of qpf. Timeheights indicate a flattening cloud field around 4000 ft tngt. As a result, slight chances for flurries were included for all areas until midnight, with little vertical extent of convection expected.

The wind advy was still warranted based on the latest progs. There is an initial surge of winds with the front tngt, then perhaps a slight slackening early in the mrng before they pick up again by 14Z. The NAM in particular keeps 50-55 kt H85 winds in til late aftn. With a deeply mixed atmosphere, the wind advy was extended a few hours to 4 pm.

Dry wx on Tue with pwats around a tenth of an inch.

The NBM was used for temps tngt and Tue, with minor adjustments made. Wind chills tngt will drop into the single digits for LI and NYC, and will dip blw zero in spots north of there. Wind chills on Tue will not get out of the teens and lower 20s.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/. A mid lvl wave passes N of the region Tue ngt. Any snow with this is progged to remain across VT and upstate NY. Dry wx is expected for the CWA. Winds aloft decrease, and the loss of diurnal heating will further allow for sfc winds and gusts to diminish. There could be enough mixing to prevent ideal radiational cooling. In addition, some mid and high lvl cloudiness is suggested in the time heights. As a result, the NBM was used for temps, which more closely resembled the MET as opposed to the much colder MAV.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. A deep closed low aloft will retrograde slowly W across eastern Canada through the end of the week, while upper ridging persists from the Rockies into central Canada. Quasi-zonal flow aloft over the eastern states to start will send sfc low pressure well to the south on Wed, then become more amplified through Sat, sending Canadian high pressure with dry and progressively colder air into the region. Mild temps with highs from the mid 40s to mid 50s on Wed will only reach the lower/mid 40s on Thu and the 30s on Fri. Weak return flow as a lobe of the sfc high breaks off and sets up just off the coast should bring slight moderation for Sat, with highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s.

The closed low across Canada should begin to weaken beginning Sat, allowing the ridge to the west to slowly build eastward to the Plains states, while a Pacific disturbance undercuts the ridge and enters the base of the longwave trough, with sfc low pressure developing in the Gulf of Mexico on Sat and then passing well to the SE on Sunday, though perhaps not as far SE as model forecasts. Given the dominance of the trough and the position of the ridge to the west, do not expect this low to get very close to the coast, and only 1 out of 51 12Z EPS members showed precip getting to the coast. Allowed a little extra wiggle room for the low to cut in more closely than the op and ensemble forecasts as is often the case in this scenario, but even still that would only warrant slight chance PoP on Sunday for Long Island and SE CT. At any rate, windy and continued cold wx expected in the wake of this departing sys on Mon, with highs only in the 30s.

AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. A cold front moves through the terminals early this evening. High pressure then builds to the west through Tuesday morning, and slides to the south Tuesday afternoon.

Chance of MVFR ceilings, mainly east of the New York City terminals, through 23Z, otherwise VFR.

NW winds 15 to around 20 kt with gusts 30-35 kt through the remainder of this afternoon increase this evening to 25-30 kt gusting around 40kt. Occasional gusts as high as 45 kt possible late this evening and overnight. Winds and gusts begin to diminish Tuesday morning, and may be a few kt higher than currently forecast.

. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty .

There is a chance of MVFR ceilings through 23Z. NW wind gusts may be briefly near 45 kt tonight. Wind gusts Tuesday morning may be a few kt higher than currently forecast, possibly near 40 kt especially in the morning.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. Tuesday afternoon and night. VFR. NW winds 15-20G25-35kt, winds and gusts diminishing late in the afternoon and into the evening. Winds become W 10-15kt after 03Z. Wednesday through Saturday. VFR. NW winds gusting 20-30kt possible Thu.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE. Gales thru Tue for all waters. There could be a few isold gusts to storm force, particularly the ern zones. Some areas of light freezing spray are possible tngt and Tue as well. Low tides will approach blowout lvls during the times of low tide Tue mrng. The guidance indicated lvls would be marginal, so an advy was not issued attm. The gales diminish Tue ngt, with a SCA likely needed for most areas for the rest of the ngt, and for the eastern ocean waters on Wed.

SCA conds likely for most if not all the waters from late day Thu into Fri night or early Sat morning as NW flow increases with a reinforcing shot of colder air. Can't totally rule out gales on the outer ocean waters, but frequent gusts up to 30 kt appear more likely attm.

HYDROLOGY. No hydrologic impacts anticipated attm.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST Tuesday for CTZ005>012. NY . Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ067>075-078>081- 176>179. NJ . Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST Tuesday for NJZ002-004-006- 103>108. MARINE . Gale Warning until 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ330-340-345-350-353- 355. Gale Warning until 4 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ335-338. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ350- 353-355.



SYNOPSIS . JMC/Goodman NEAR TERM . JMC SHORT TERM . JMC LONG TERM . Goodman AVIATION . MET MARINE . JMC/Goodman HYDROLOGY . JMC/Goodman


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 28 mi42 min W 16 G 19 41°F1004.7 hPa (+4.0)
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 32 mi54 min N 17 G 21 43°F 1006 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 33 mi42 min WNW 18 G 21 40°F1005.1 hPa (+3.6)
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 36 mi54 min WNW 7 G 18 44°F 38°F1003.4 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 44 mi54 min 46°F 39°F1005.9 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 45 mi54 min NW 22 G 29 45°F 1006.4 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 46 mi54 min NW 19 G 27 45°F 38°F1003.6 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 46 mi54 min NW 23 G 28 46°F 1005.5 hPa

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY11 mi46 minWNW 16 G 2810.00 miOvercast45°F28°F52%1004 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY13 mi49 minNW 12 G 2510.00 miA Few Clouds46°F28°F50%1004.8 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY21 mi46 minWNW 21 G 3310.00 miA Few Clouds and Breezy46°F27°F47%1003.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KISP

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE13--E11E10E9E10E8E7E5--N4CalmCalmW3CalmS5W8W11W11W12
G18
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1 day agoW5W6W6W7W7W4NW3CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N4NE7NE7NE7NE5SE6E11SE10SE11
2 days agoS4S5SE5S7S7S8SE6SE7SE7SE9E7SE10SE9SE11SE11SE12
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S14SW13W5W10

Tide / Current Tables for West Fire Island, Long Island, New York
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West Fire Island
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Mon -- 05:28 AM EST     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:26 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:00 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 11:15 AM EST     0.71 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:44 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:53 PM EST     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:39 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:48 PM EST     0.70 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.50.30.20-0.1-0.100.30.50.60.70.70.60.40.20-0.1-0.1-00.20.40.60.7

Tide / Current Tables for Bay Shore, Watchogue Creek Entrance, Long Island, New York (2)
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Bay Shore
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:34 AM EST     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:26 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:00 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 11:12 AM EST     1.09 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:44 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:59 PM EST     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:39 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:45 PM EST     1.08 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.80.50.20-0.1-0.10.10.40.711.11.10.90.60.30.1-0.1-0.2-0.10.20.60.91

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