Sunrise 5:51 AM   Sunset 7:55 PM Moonrise 3:06 AM   Moonset 1:28 PM

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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 1047 Am Edt Thu May 2 2024
.dense fog advisory in effect until 11 am edt this morning - .
Today - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W with gusts up to 20 kt late. Waves 1 ft or less. Areas of fog late this morning. Vsby less than 1 nm late this morning. Tonight - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Fri - E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft. Fri night - SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming E 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Sat - E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.Sat night - SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers after midnight. Sun - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers likely. Sun night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers. Mon - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Mon night - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.

ANZ300 1047 Am Edt Thu May 2 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A warm front will struggle to pass east of the water today, followed by a cold frontal passage this afternoon into this evening. High pressure otherwise controls the weather through most of Saturday. A cold front then moves through Sunday night into Monday morning, then stalls south of the region.

FXUS61 KOKX 021445 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1045 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
A warm front will struggle to pass east of Connecticut and Long Island today, followed by a cold frontal passage this afternoon into this evening. High pressure otherwise controls the weather through most of Saturday. A cold front then moves through Sunday night into Monday morning, then stalls south of the region. The front moves back north as a warm front Tuesday into Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Back edge of clearing along the Hudson River and south into the NYC metro. Expect gradual erosion of the clouds/fog along the western edge, translating east into the afternoon. The main change with this update was to adjust temperatures down a few degrees along coastal locations, mainly east of the NYC metro.
This will be a challenging temperature forecast due to the timing of the clearing and how much time the area has to heat up. Thus, the trend has been to adjust LI and coastal CT down a few degrees. Highs across these areas will be in the lower 60s to around 70. Locations from NYC north and west still look to get into the upper 70s and lower 80s.

Patchy dense fog mainly across CT and LI will also continue to lift the next couple of hours. Visibilities will generally be greater than a mile, but some patchy dense fog is still being noted, especially along the immediate coast.

Warm front struggles to pass east of the area today, followed by a cold frontal passage this afternoon/evening. Moisture is limited with both fronts, and although eastern portions of the forecast area will have deeper lift this afternoon, would have liked to have seen deeper moisture on time-heights to introduce a chance of showers.

Continued dry for tonight as high pressure builds in from the north. Low temperatures a few degrees above normal.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
High pressure continues to build in from the north while a ridge axis aloft shifts towards us. Dry and cooler as winds arrive from the east, limiting the mixing depth. Went slightly cooler than NBM, which is close to its 25th percentile, and still might be a little too warm based on progged 925mb temps of 7-8C.

Dry for Friday night and at least Saturday morning, but generally lowering and thickening clouds are expected during this period. The ridge axis aloft will be right over us during Saturday and slow to move, so even Saturday afternoon stands a good chance of remaining dry. Will maintain slight chance PoPs west of the Hudson River in the afternoon. Mixing depth is limited once again for Saturday with an onshore flow and the ridge axis aloft. Went slightly cooler than the NBM again for high temps.

A cold front slowly approaches from the west Saturday night as it runs into ridging aloft. Associated rainfall with the front will also have a tough time pushing into the forecast area. Rain probabilities remain below likely through the night.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Upper level ridge axis shifts offshore early Sunday and the flow becomes near zonal by early next week. A longwave upper trough across eastern Canada amplifies into the northeast Tuesday and moves off shore Wednesday as another upper ridge builds to the west of the area and moves into the region Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front tracks across Sunday night into Monday, and becomes nearly stationary as the flow becomes parallel to the boundary. A period of some heavier showers will be possible Sunday as precipitable water values increase to 1.3 inches. NBM QPF probabilities remain similar to 24 hours ago. Probabilities of seeing 1 inch or more with this event are 20 to 15 percent from west to east, with the 90th percentile PQPF over 48 hours showing 1 to 1.5 inches, with the higher values over the western half of the area.

Tuesday into Wednesday high pressure builds south from the Hudson Bay region of Canada into the eastern Great Lakes. With a deep low tracking northward from the northern plains into southern Canada Tuesday into Wednesday the stalled cold front will move slowly northward as a warm front. There is uncertainty as to the movement of the front as high pressure, and an upper ridge will be in place.
Temperatures Friday night through Sunday will be around 5 degrees above normal, and then Sunday night into Wednesday 5 to 10 degrees above normal. For highs and lows Monday through Wednesday used a blend of NBM and NBM 75th percentile to raise temperatures a few degrees above the NBM. Depending on the movement of the warm front next week, there is a chance that a few locations will have a record high low Monday night into Tuesday morning.

AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A weak frontal system moves through the area this afternoon.
There is some uncertainty as to how quickly the associated cold front gets through the area, which could lead to wind timing and intensity issues. The front may struggle to get east of the coastal terminals.

Improvement from IFR/LIFR to VFR is expected by early this afternoon around 16z for NYC terminals. It may take until the afternoon across the far eastern terminals to see a return to VFR.

S winds under 10kt gradually veering to west as a frontal system attempts to work across the area. Gusts to 20 kt possible. Coastal areas may remain onshore.

By late day/early evening, all the terminals should become more N/NE and E by Friday morning. MVFR cigs could return overnight from east to west.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments are likely as conditions slowly improve.

The timing of the wind shift to the W/NW today could be delayed significantly, especially at KLGA and KJFK where a southerly flow may hold on longer. In turn, improvement to VFR could also be an hour or two later than the TAF.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Friday: VFR.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers and MVFR conditions in the afternoon, increasing chances overnight.

Sunday...Likely showers, with MVFR or lower conditions. ESE winds G15-20kt.

Monday...VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
A Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect for all waters this morning as widespread visibilities below 1 miles are being observed on coastal ASOS and area cameras. The fog will clear up for the western waters first late this morning and then for the eastern waters this afternoon.

Winds will be at around 10 kt or less through the day today, but will increase out of NE behind late tonight as high pressure builds in behind a departed cold front. NE-E winds 10-15 kt Friday morning with gusts below 25 kt diminish in the afternoon. A weak pressure gradient then maintains sub-advisory conditions across the waters Friday night through the middle of next week.

HYDROLOGY
There are currently no hydrologic concerns through early next week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ331- 332-340-345-350-353.
Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ335-338- 355.

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Port Ivory
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Thu -- 03:05 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:18 AM EDT     5.39 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:20 AM EDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:27 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:04 PM EDT     4.96 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:45 PM EDT     0.86 feet Low Tide
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Port Ivory, Howland Hook, New York, Tide feet

Bayonne Bridge
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Thu -- 12:04 AM EDT     1.59 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 03:05 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:12 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:01 AM EDT     -1.36 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 10:09 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:39 PM EDT     1.66 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 01:27 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:48 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:41 PM EDT     -1.23 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:41 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
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Bayonne Bridge, Kill van Kull, New York Current, knots

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