Wednesday, December11, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Wantagh, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 4:28PM Wednesday December 11, 2019 8:10 PM EST (01:10 UTC) Moonrise 5:16PMMoonset 7:20AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ355 Sandy Hook Nj To Fire Island Inlet Ny Out 20 Nm- 534 Pm Est Wed Dec 11 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Tonight..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Chance of rain in the afternoon.
Fri night..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Chance of rain in the evening, then rain likely after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Rain in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
Sun..W winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Sun night..W winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Mon..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon night..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Chance of rain.
ANZ300 534 Pm Est Wed Dec 11 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Strong arctic high pressure builds in through tonight, then pushes offshore late Thursday as a warm front lifts well north of the area. Low pressure approaches from the south Friday and passes through on Saturday with low pressure building back in on Sunday and Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wantagh, NY
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location: 40.68, -73.52     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 120022 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 722 PM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

SYNOPSIS. Strong arctic high pressure builds in through tonight, then pushes offshore Thursday afternoon. Low pressure approaches from the south Friday and passes through on Saturday with high pressure building back in on Sunday and Monday. Another storm then impacts the area for Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/. Minor updates were made mainly for hourly temperatures, dewpoints and cloud cover based on latest obs and trends. Rest of the forecast is on track.

Strengthening arctic high pressure (1040+ mb by early Thursday morning) builds in tonight. Subsidence underneath the high will allow for a mostly clear sky. With the high strengthening, the pressure gradient increases, allow for winds to increase. So, although tonight will not be an optimal night for radiational cooling due to the winds, it should be rather cold due to cold advection, clear skies, and snow pack. Temperatures will drop to the teens in the outlying areas, and the middle 20s for the New York City metro area. Lower to middle 20s are expected elsewhere. Combined with the winds, it will feel more like the teens and single digits across the forecast area late tonight into early Thursday morning.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. Dry conditions continue into Thursday and Thursday night as the center of the high quickly moves over the area, then offshore thanks to zonal flow aloft. Continued cold advection early Thursday will mean well below normal high temperatures. Highs will be in the lower to middle 30s, some 10 to 15 degrees below normal for this time of year.

Return flow sets up on the back side of the high as it pushes offshore late Thursday. This will allow a warm front to lift well north of the area. Thursday night will see a non-diurnal temperature trend, with temperatures remaining steady or rising through the night, especially along the coast. Lows in the 20s to lower 30s will be reached early in the night. The return flow will also mean an increase in moisture aloft and therefore an increase in clouds.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Low pressure begins to take shape across the Southeast with high pressure centered well off to our northeast. Isentropic lift ahead of a warm front interacts with fairly shallow moisture for a chance of light rain or drizzle Friday morning, which could be freezing for a brief time NW of the city. Better chances of rainfall then occur in the afternoon as moisture deepens. Rain eventually becomes likely across the forecast area as Friday night progresses.

The center of the storm is expected to pass over or nearby the Tri-State Area Saturday morning into early afternoon. Increasing lift with deep moisture brings primarily rainfall that will be mainly moderate, but may be heavy at times. Rain chances drop off through Saturday night with the storm off to the east and a westerly flow developing in its wake. This will lead to a dry and breezy Sunday with high temperatures a few degrees above normal.

A high pressure ridge shifts through on Monday, keeping us dry. Another low pressure system then approaches from the Ohio Valley Monday night with increasing chances of rain or mixed PCPN into Tuesday. Will limit PoPs to no higher than 50% through Tuesday night as global deterministic models and ensembles disagree with the track of the storm. The track will also have implications on PCPN type. Went with the middle ground for this forecast, including simplified PCPN types this far out in time. High pressure would then follow for Wednesday with dry weather.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. High pressure builds toward the region tonight, and passes overhead Thursday.

VFR. W winds will gradually veer through the night with gusts 20-25 kt for the first half of the night. The gusts could initially be more occasional, but should become more frequent around the 03Z timeframe. NW winds lighten late tonight into Thursday morning. A weak S-SE flow develops late in the afternoon into the early evening.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. Thursday night. Becoming MVFR after 06Z. Friday and Friday night. MVFR or lower in developing rain, especially Friday night. Saturday. IFR in rain, tapering off to scattered showers later in the day and at night. LLWS possible. Sunday. Generally VFR. West winds 10-15kt gusts 20-30kt. Sunday night-Monday. VFR.

MARINE. SCA in effect as winds increase across all waters tonight, thanks to increasing pressure gradient from a strengthening high building into the area from the west. 25 to 30 kt gusts are expected through about midnight tonight, but will diminish thereafter.

Waves build to 4 to 6 ft on the ocean waters and will also diminish overnight, with the eastern ocean zone hanging on to 5 ft waves for a few hours Thursday morning. SCA in effect through much of Thursday morning for eastern ocean zone because of this.

Winds and seas increase Friday and Friday night ahead of low pressure, which is expected to pass through or nearby during Saturday morning or early afternoon. SCA conds will be possible on the ocean by the end of the day Friday, eventually become probable Friday night and remain likely throughout Saturday. For the remaining waters, there is a chance that gusts do not reach 25 kt up to this point. Models disagree with the track of the center of the storm and how potent it will be, but best chances of gusts this high would be late Friday night/early Saturday morning should they occur.

Winds then pick up from the west on Saturday night and Sunday behind the storm. SCA conds likely for all waters, and potentially gales Sunday into Sunday night on the ocean, eastern LI Sound and the eastern LI bays. Winds and seas subside on Monday with the approach of a high pressure ridge, but possibly still within advisory criteria for a portion of the day.

HYDROLOGY. No hydrologic issues are expected with mainly snow this Friday.

1.00 to 1.50 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts are anticipated from Friday night through Saturday. Minor nuisance flooding will be possible with this event.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. There will be a chance of coastal flooding with the high tide cycle during Saturday morning. This will be due to onshore winds with an approaching storm combined with relatively high astronomical tides due to a nearly full moon. Minor coastal flooding will be possible primarily along the south shore back bays of Long Island, where even moderate coastal flooding is a possibility at least along the Nassau County bays. Minor flooding will also be possible along NY Harbor and parts of Western Long Island Sound. Confidence is not high at this point as the event is still a few days away, and shifts in storm's track and/or timing would change the flooding potential.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still operating at reduced power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ330-335- 338-340-345-353-355. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for ANZ350.



SYNOPSIS . JC/JP NEAR TERM . JP SHORT TERM . JP LONG TERM . JC AVIATION . DW MARINE . JC/JP HYDROLOGY . JC/JP TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . // EQUIPMENT . //


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 16 mi52 min NW 16 G 25 37°F 44°F1028.5 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 18 mi40 min WSW 18 G 21 37°F 32°F24°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 19 mi50 min W 21 G 29 38°F 2 ft24°F
44069 23 mi85 min W 19 G 23 38°F 40°F27°F
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 24 mi50 min W 23 G 31 39°F 1028.5 hPa26°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 26 mi52 min 37°F 46°F1028.6 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 29 mi52 min W 17 G 22 36°F 1028.3 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 30 mi52 min W 19 G 23 37°F 44°F1029 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 33 mi52 min 36°F 45°F1028.8 hPa
MHRN6 34 mi52 min W 17 G 24
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 35 mi80 min W 21 G 27 41°F 50°F5 ft1027.2 hPa (+1.6)
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 39 mi58 min WSW 7 G 9.9 34°F 44°F1026.3 hPa

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY7 mi17 minW 1110.00 miFair35°F19°F52%1027.9 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY14 mi19 minW 1510.00 miA Few Clouds36°F19°F52%1028.9 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY20 mi19 minW 1510.00 miA Few Clouds36°F16°F44%1028.3 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY24 mi74 minSW 610.00 miA Few Clouds32°F28°F85%1027.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFRG

Wind History from FRG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN6NW10
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W8NW5NW6NW6NW7N8N7N10N10N6NE4N7NE5N4CalmSW6W6SW6SW9W8W8W11
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SW6SW8SW8S7SW6S6S6SW5SW7SW5SW4SW5W11SW7SW7SW8W9W8W7N5
2 days agoS4S3S6S4S3NW3CalmNE3E3CalmE5SE8SE10S19
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Tide / Current Tables for Bellmore, Bellmore Creek, Long Island, New York
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Bellmore
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:36 AM EST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:19 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:16 AM EST     2.30 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:26 PM EST     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:16 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:26 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:45 PM EST     1.92 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.2-0-00.30.91.62.12.32.21.91.510.50.1-0.1-00.411.51.81.91.71.3

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:35 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:58 AM EST     0.96 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 06:21 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:35 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:06 AM EST     -0.72 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 01:46 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:16 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:27 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:22 PM EST     1.01 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 08:03 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:31 PM EST     -0.73 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.5-0.10.10.30.710.70.2-0.1-0.3-0.6-0.7-0.6-0.30.10.20.610.90.40-0.2-0.5-0.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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