Saturday, December7, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Trevorton, PA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 4:40PM Saturday December 7, 2019 8:35 AM EST (13:35 UTC) Moonrise 2:22PMMoonset 2:24AM Illumination 81% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 638 Am Est Sat Dec 7 2019
Today..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft. Rain.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming nw 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the day.
ANZ500 638 Am Est Sat Dec 7 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build across the region through the weekend. A strong area of low pressure will then develop over the mid- mississippi valley and track northeastward toward the eastern great lakes early next week. Small craft advisories may be needed Monday night through Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Trevorton, PA
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location: 40.75, -76.74     debug


Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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FXUS61 KCTP 071147 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 647 AM EST Sat Dec 7 2019

SYNOPSIS. Flurries or scattered light snow showers are likely across the northern tier counties of Pennsylvania early today. Dry conditions with near normal temperatures will follow for the much of the weekend. A warm up along with periods of rain are in store for Monday and Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Weak low level cold advection will help to keep a broken to overcast layer of strato cu clouds in place across much of Central and Northern PA through the midday hours as 850 mb temps hover near -10C across the north, and slowly warm a deg or two C over the SW zones (where 850 mb temps this morning will be around -6C).

This will be followed by weak warm advection throughout the blyr late this afternoon with gradual clearing and just some periods of sct- bkn alto cu clouds topping sfc high pressure that will be building east from Ohio.

High temps today will range from the mid to upper 20s across the northern mtns to around 40F in the southern valleys. A northwest breeze at 5-10 mph will become light and variable by dark.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/. Dry weather expected for tonight and most or all of Sunday as high pressure slides east across the state. After a chilly start over the NE Sunday morning with temps in the teens, temps will warm to near seasonal normals in the mid 30s (NE) and low 40s (South).

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Big temperature swings are expected during the period. A significant warming trend is forecast through early next week with max temperature departures +10-15 degrees above normal (widespread 40s and 50s).

Unseasonably mild minimum temps are forecast Monday night with departures on the order of 15-20 degrees above normal as the primary PWAT axis (with values around +2 sigma) slides east across the region.

The mild surge will be accompanied by periods of light to moderate rain Monday and Tuesday. Rainfall amounts between 0.50 to 1 inch are forecast early next week.

The warm air and rainfall will help to melt the snow over the Allegheny Front into the Upper Susquehanna River basin. Areas of fog are likely as the mild air moves over colder ground. Rises on rivers/streams are expected and will need to monitor risk of minor flooding across the northern tier. WPC indicates a MRGL risk of rainfall heavy enough to cause flooding of small streams and poor drainage areas over our far western counties Monday into early Tuesday.

It will turn sharply colder through midweek as arctic air blasts into the region. Temperatures will be on the decline Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night (non diurnal over the NW 1/2 during the day Tuesday). There will be some potential for residual water or slush to freeze up quickly by Wednesday. Highs are forecast to drop by 20-30 degrees between Tuesday and Thursday, with minimum wind chills in the single digits and teens Thursday morning.

There is also a chance that the cold air could catch up to the back edge of the rain and result in a period of snow at the end of the precipitation event on Wednesday. There should be some lake effect snow that develops in the wake of the system, but trajectories appear to be focused more into southwest NY.

The active weather pattern next week may continue into the weekend with the GFS and ECMWF both showing a large, dynamic storm system impacting the region.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. 12Z TAFS sent.

Some lower clouds will be possible across the mountains this morning, otherwise VFR conditions will prevail across the region this weekend.

Wet weather moves in for early next week.

Outlook.

Sun . VFR.

Sun night . Mainly VFR. Lowering cigs.

Mon-Tue . Widespread SHRA/MVFR. IFR poss. CFROPA Tues.

Wed . Restrictions NW half. Breezy NW wind.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.

SYNOPSIS . Lambert NEAR TERM . Lambert SHORT TERM . Lambert/RXR LONG TERM . Lambert/Steinbugl AVIATION . Martin


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 96 mi53 min 34°F 42°F1028 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 98 mi53 min Calm G 1 30°F 42°F1028.7 hPa

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Selinsgrove Penn Valley Airport, PA8 mi42 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy29°F23°F78%1028.5 hPa
Muir Army Air Field / Indiantown, PA23 mi1.7 hrsNNE 710.00 miOvercast33°F17°F53%1028.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSEG

Wind History from SEG (wind in knots)
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2 days agoS4SW4SW3S5S3S3SW5S43SW4SW4S4SW3S3SW433W4W564W5NW6W8

Tide / Current Tables for Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Port Deposit
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:49 AM EST     0.54 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:21 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 06:27 AM EST     1.86 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 02:01 PM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:20 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:40 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:30 PM EST     2.03 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.60.50.71.11.61.81.81.71.410.60.30-00.10.61.21.7221.91.61.3

Tide / Current Tables for Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Havre de Grace
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:26 AM EST     0.27 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:21 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 06:02 AM EST     1.57 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:16 PM EST     0.10 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:20 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:40 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:33 PM EST     1.99 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.30.50.81.21.51.61.51.20.90.60.30.10.20.40.91.31.7221.81.51.10.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for State College, PA (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station State College, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.