Monday, September20, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mansfield, OH

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 7:31PM Monday September 20, 2021 12:59 AM EDT (04:59 UTC) Moonrise 6:48PMMoonset 5:39AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ144 The Islands To Vermilion Oh-vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Avon Point To Willowick Oh- 1003 Am Edt Sun Sep 19 2021
This afternoon..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..South winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers overnight. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Tuesday through Thursday. The water temperature off toledo is 75 degrees, off cleveland 72 degrees, and off erie 70 degrees.
LEZ144 Expires:202109192030;;855735 FZUS51 KCLE 191403 NSHCLE Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1003 AM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ144>146-192030-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mansfield, OH
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location: 40.77, -82.57     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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FXUS61 KCLE 200139 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 939 PM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021

SYNOPSIS. Ridge of high pressure over the region will continue to move east through early Monday. A warm front then moves northeastward across the region Monday night. A strong cold front ushers in a significantly cooler airmass late Tuesday night, and could stall overhead into Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. High level cloud cover will continue to slowly move over the region from the south and southwest. Looking at the advective layer precipitable water images over the region it remains very dry above 700mb. So it will be interesting to see how far north and east the cloud cover will reach through the night. Otherwise only made minor changes to hourly temperatures to reflect current trends.

This dry air will be slow to move east on Monday so have slowed the eastward progression of the rain chances through the afternoon. Locations near and east of I-71 shouldn't see any measurable rain into the evening. There is still a very slim chance for sprinkles during the early evening across the central CWA but it is not expected to measure.

Previous Discussion . Mid/upper level trough oriented west to east will move south to north tonight and Monday. Expecting marked increases in cloud cover with the approach of this system, and POPs on the increase in response to the f-gen in the region. The better forcing will be further west of the CWA where the PVA is strongest, so the early onset of the POPs will be tailored for the far western zones of the CWA Monday. Vertical profiles will become a little bit more supportive of thunderstorm activity with modest CAPE forming in the afternoon hours. Meanwhile, at the surface, high pressure moves off the New England coast, and a strong cold front will be making its way through the central plains. Pressure gradient will be tightening, and will see noticeable increases in winds Monday into Monday night. Some warm air advection expected in the southerly flow, more apparent over the eastern zones. The western zones may end up slightly cooler due to increased cloud cover/precipitation.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. An active short term period is anticipated as a deep upper-level trough approaches from the west and a strong surface cold front slides east and stalls across the forecast area. Expect scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms to develop ahead of the front after around 12Z Tuesday. Deep return flow will funnel quite a bit of moisture into the region and forecast soundings indicate a saturated atmosphere with tall, skinny CAPE profiles with precipitable water values of up to 1.75 inches (well above normal for this time of year). As a result, locally heavy rain will be possible and the western half of our area is outlined in a WPC Day 3 Slight Risk for excessive rainfall. Although this part of our forecast area has been dry with precip deficits over the last few weeks, heavy rain rates may lead to localized flooding on Tuesday.

The trough will continue to deepen as it moves into the Ohio Valley Tuesday night into Wednesday and will likely close into an upper- level low with a surface low likely developing over or within the vicinity of our forecast area and deepening by Wednesday night. This will lead to an additional round of moderate to heavy rain Wednesday, this time with stratiform moderate to heavy rain rather than convective showers. Will need to continue to monitor the potential for flooding. The deepening surface low will likely lead to breezy winds Wednesday night, with gusts of 30 to 35 mph possible along the lakeshore.

Tuesday will feature one last day of warm temperatures, with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Overnight lows will fall into the mid 50s to lower 60s Tuesday and will only recover to the low to mid 60s on Wednesday. Wednesday night's lows should fall into the notably cooler upper 40s to lower 50s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. The low should continue to influence the area through Thursday, with scattered showers continuing before the low lifts northeast into Ontario by Friday morning. A reinforcing trough/cold front will slide across the area Friday night, providing an additional chance of showers across the area. Thursday will likely feature the coolest temps of the season thus far, with highs lingering in the lower 60s and lows dropping into the mid to upper 50s. Temperatures recover slightly Friday through the weekend and highs increase into the mid 60s to around 70 degrees. Overnight lows should be in the upper 40s to lower 50s each night.

AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/. VFR through the TAF period. However cloud cover will gradually thicken and lower, especially Monday afternoon as a warm front lifts northeastward across northern Ohio into NW PA. This boundary should be north of Lake Erie at some point Monday night. A passing shower is possible across NW OH after 17Z but expect them to be very light. Better chances arrive late Monday night into Tuesday.

Light east to southeast winds are expected overnight. Winds may be slightly stronger near KERI with 10-15 knots possible 04Z to 12Z. All locations should see southeast to south winds on Monday increasing into the afternoon to 8-12 knots. A few gusts may be 15-18 knots across NW OH.

Outlook . Non-VFR possible in scattered to numerous showers/ thunderstorms Monday night through Thursday.

MARINE. Easterly to northeasterly winds of 10 to 15 knots continue through this evening before shifting to the southeast on Monday morning. This flow will persist through Monday afternoon, but winds over the lake will increase to around 20 knots Monday night into Tuesday morning as the pressure gradient tightens with an approaching cold front. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed during this time. Southerly winds briefly relax by Tuesday evening, but will sharply shift to the northwest with the passage of the cold front early Wednesday morning. Expect northerly winds to increase to 20 to 25 knots in the western and central basins as a surface low begins to take shape over the region by Wednesday afternoon, which will prompt a Small Craft Advisory. Wouldn't be surprised if winds trended higher towards 30 knots depending on the location of the low and the pressure gradient. Winds become southeasterly but linger at around 15 to 20 knots early Friday.

Can't rule out waterspouts with the frontal passage Tuesday night into Wednesday, but breezy surface winds may inhibit any development.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . None. PA . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . 26/MM NEAR TERM . 26/MM SHORT TERM . Maines LONG TERM . Maines AVIATION . MM MARINE . Maines


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH 42 mi75 min E 2.9 1020 hPa
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH 44 mi60 min SE 7 G 9.9 73°F 1018.6 hPa
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 54 mi60 min ESE 5.1 G 9.9 73°F 74°F1018.7 hPa (+0.0)58°F

Wind History for Marblehead, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mansfield - Mansfield Lahm Regional Airport, OH5 mi68 minSE 610.00 miFair69°F62°F78%1020.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMFD

Wind History from MFD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4E5E3SE3E3SE4SE5SE4S4S4S6SE3E5CalmNE4E3NE4SE8E6SE4E6E7SE6SE6
1 day agoSW4W4SW4W4W6W4SW3NW6N5N7N3CalmCalm45N11N9N7N10N7N5NE4NE4NE4
2 days agoSE5S5S6CalmCalmSE4SE5S6S4CalmS5W43S4CalmS7S5S4SE5CalmS6SE6S3S3

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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