Sunrise 5:49 AM   Sunset 7:47 PM Moonrise 1:00 AM   Moonset 9:40 AM

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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 541 Am Edt Mon Apr 29 2024
Today - NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se this afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Patchy fog early this morning. Slight chance of showers and tstms late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm early this morning. Tonight - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of tstms in the evening. Slight chance of showers. Tue - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Slight chance of showers in the morning. Tue night - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and slight chance of tstms after midnight. Wed - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Wed night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Thu - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Thu night - S winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Fri - E winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Fri night - SE winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
winds and waves may be higher in and near tstms.

ANZ300 541 Am Edt Mon Apr 29 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A weak cold front/surface trough moves through the area this morning, with a back door cold front moving through this evening. A frontal wave then moves through the area Tuesday night into Wednesday, with high pressure returning thereafter for the end of the week. Another frontal system is expected for the weekend.

FXUS61 KOKX 291120 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 720 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

SYNOPSIS
A weak cold front/surface trough moves through the area this morning, with a back door cold front moving through this evening. A frontal wave then moves through the area Tuesday night into Wednesday, with high pressure returning thereafter for the end of the week. Another frontal system is expected for the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Given current temperatures already running a few degrees warmer than forecast and little in the way of clouds, bumped up forecast highs by a degree or 2 in most spots. Some patchy fog is being observed, but not expected to become widespread and/or dense.

A weak cold front/surface trough is currently moving through the area, with any showers now south of us. Ridging continues to build in aloft over the eastern CONUS, with the axis expected to be overhead sometime early Tuesday. A back door cold front approaches this afternoon and moves through this evening.

Today will be one of the warmest days of the year so far, with highs in the low to mid 80s for most. Bit of a tricky temperature forecast with the timing of the front, sea breezes and any clouds this morning being huge factors. The thinking is that skies will be mostly sunny this morning and temps will rise quickly with decent mixing in a northwest flow. Once the sea breezes kick in, temperatures will drop as always this time of the year. Long Island, coastal CT and portions of NYC and northeast NJ will likely see their highs in the early afternoon.

With sea breeze boundaries and some energy rounding the base of the ridge aloft, some afternoon convection is possible as SBCAPE values will be around 500-1000 J/kg for NYC north and west. Have added a slight chance of thunder to the forecast. The CAMs are in pretty good agreement with the location of any convection being NYC north and west.

Thicker cloud cover returns tonight with a moist onshore flow. lows will be in the upper 40s in the eastern half of the area and mid 50s in the western half.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
A frontal boundary likely remains just south of the area through Tuesday night. As previously mentioned, the upper ridge axis will pass overhead early Tuesday. A shortwave then approaches with associated surface frontal wave Tuesday night. This will bring the next shot of rain to the area with chances Tuesday evening through the first half of Wednesday. Capped at 50% PoP for now, with the most likely period being Tuesday night. There is also a slight chance of thunder. High pressure starts building in from the north and east Wednesday night.

Temperatures will be cooler on Tuesday and Wednesday than they will be today, but still at or above normal for late April/early May.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
No major changes were made to the forecast Thursday through the upcoming weekend

*Key Points*

*Dry conditions expected Thursday and Friday.

*The next frontal system may impact the area for the upcoming weekend, bringing the next chance of showers.

*Temperatures will continue running slightly above normal.

Shortwave troughing that will be moving across the region Wednesday pushes offshore on Thursday. Upper ridging will reestablish itself over the eastern states to end the week. Another upper trough then lifts north out of the intermountain west on Friday, then up into the Great Lakes over the weekend. This will send another weakening frontal system into the area Saturday into Sunday. The modeling has been slowing down the timing for the ridge axis to weaken or shift east. This has also slowed down when higher probabilities for showers exist across the region. It may take until late Saturday or Saturday night for the ridge to weaken enough to allow the front to enter the area. Showers are possible late Saturday into Saturday night. Model spread increases further for Sunday with several solutions showing ridging trying to return and the front dissipating. There are also solutions showing the ridge moving to the western Atlantic on Sunday with a larger upper trough trying to edge closer to the east coast, which would act on the front to bring higher chances of showers. Maintained the chance of showers on Sunday based on the latest NBM. Did not include thunder as there is too much uncertainty with the mesoscale environment at this time range.

Temperatures Thursday and Friday will reach the lower to middle 60s near the coast with onshore component to the wind. Further inland, highs should reach the lower to potentially middle 70s.
Highs are much more uncertain this weekend with NBM box and whisker plots showing ranges of highs from the lower 60s to the upper 70s, especially away from the immediate coast. This is likely due to the aforementioned uncertainties with cloud cover, potential showers, and proximity of the front.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A back door cold front approaches in the afternoon and moves through this evening.

VFR through 00z. A few showers are possible late this afternoon and early this evening and an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. Have continued with a PROB30 for SHRA, mainly for NYC metro and Lower Hudson Valley terminals.

Ceilings are expected to lower to MVFR/IFR this evening from east to west after 00z. IFR conditions will prevail early Tuesday morning with the potential for conditions to improve to MVFR mid to late Tuesday morning.

Winds will become NW-NNW this morning under 10 kt. Winds shift to the S-SE in the afternoon. Winds begin to back to the ESE-E this evening and then E overnight. Wind speeds will mainly be 10 kt or less through the TAF period.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of wind shifts in the TAF may be off by 1-3 hours.

Winds at KLGA may become NNE-NE this morning/early afternoon before shifting to the SE.

A shower, possibly a thunderstorm, may occur 21-00z.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Tuesday: MVFR to IFR in the morning, some VFR possible in the afternoon. Shower possible late afternoon, more probable Tuesday night with potential thunder.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower possible.

Thursday-Friday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Given a weak pressure gradient over the area for several days, winds and waves will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through the first half of the weekend.

HYDROLOGY
There are no hydrologic concerns through the weekend.

CLIMATE
Here are the record high temperatures for Monday, April 29:

EWR: 91/1974 BDR: 86/2017 NYC: 89/1974 LGA: 88/2017* JFK: 85/2017 ISP: 85/2017

*Also occurred in previous years

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

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Potunk Point
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Mon -- 12:59 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:20 AM EDT     0.56 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:39 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:05 AM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:05 PM EDT     0.45 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:52 PM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Potunk Point, Moriches Bay, Long Island, New York, Tide feet

Shinnecock Canal
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Mon -- 12:59 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:52 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:04 AM EDT     -1.40 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:06 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:38 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:17 AM EDT     0.93 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 02:07 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:07 PM EDT     -1.14 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 07:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:37 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:34 PM EDT     1.32 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current, knots

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