Saturday, July4, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
West Hampton Dunes, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:24AMSunset 8:27PM Saturday July 4, 2020 8:00 PM EDT (00:00 UTC) Moonrise 8:17PMMoonset 4:39AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 720 Pm Edt Sat Jul 4 2020
Tonight..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SW winds around 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..N winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..SE winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..SE winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue night..S winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Wed night..SW winds around 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu..SW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 720 Pm Edt Sat Jul 4 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Weak high pressure remains over the waters through Monday with a series of surface troughs shifting near or through the area Sunday and Monday. A warm front moves through on Tuesday, otherwise weak high pressure prevails through the middle of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near West Hampton Dunes, NY
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location: 40.78, -72.69     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 042351 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 751 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020

SYNOPSIS. Weak high pressure remains over the region through Monday with a series of surface troughs developing over or shifting through the area Sunday and Monday. A warm front approaches late Tuesday into Tuesday Night, moving north through the region Wednesday morning. Weak high pressure builds into the region through the end of the week. A cold front and southern low pressure system will approach the area on Saturday, and then move east of the region Saturday Night into Sunday. Canadian high pressure builds in for the start of the workweek.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/. One shortwave slides east this evening, while the next shortwave approaches overnight. With weak instability and weak trough in the area, an isolates shower is possible overnight.

Outside of valley fog across the Interior, potential for stratus/fog across coastal SE CT and E LI.

Temps near seasonable, mainly in the 60s, except around 70 for NYC/NJ metro.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/. Weak high pressure remains over the region Sunday and Monday. For Sunday, shortwave shifts through during the morning to midday hours. Probably not enough moisture and instability for a mention of showers during this period. Additional shortwave lift could come into play late in the day to early evening for the NE portion of the forecast area. Mid level lapse rates will be probably be highest here, however lower levels will be more stable within the sea breeze influence. Will maintain a slight chance of a shower/TSTM for the inland NE CT zones. Elsewhere, mid level dry air and/or capping will probably overcome any lift and keep things dry.

It'll be warmer on Sunday versus today, with 850mb temps at around 17C. Highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s with the highest readings in NE NJ. Relatively dry air from aloft will mix down to the surface with daytime heating to offset some of moisture from a southerly surface flow, so heat indices are expected to remain below 95.

Weak low pressure shifts SE through New England Sunday night, moving offshore late at night. This will bring a surface trough through forecast area. Can't completely rule out a shower over parts of SE CT, otherwise dry with the passage of the trough.

Monday looks similar to Sunday with a thermal trough setting up over the region during the afternoon. What's different is that models imply that the surface trough that moves offshore late Sunday night drifts back north towards us with moisture convergence along it. Mechanical lift aloft appears to be lacking with with primarily NVA, so lift will probably need to come from sea breezes or higher SBCAPE to produce showers and thunderstorms. Will go with slight chance to chance PoPs in the afternoon. There could be more clouds to offset higher 850mb temps on Monday, so high temps again in the mid 80s to lower 90s with heat indices below 95.

There is a moderate rip current risk for the Atlantic Ocean facing beaches on Sunday and Monday, due to combination of long period SE swell, a small S wind wave, onshore flow of 10 to 15 kt, and large tidal range.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. Models in good agreement with weekend shortwave troughing moving east on Monday, and the region lying on the northern edge of broad CONUS ridging through the week. This will be a dirty ridge though, with a weak closed low over the Mississippi River Valley early in the week slowly shearing/lifting towards the east coast through the week, before interacting and amplifying a bit with a northern stream shortwave and slowly sliding through the area this weekend. Before then, a midweek northern stream shortwave moving through S Canada may buckle the ridge enough to provide a trigger for afternoon diurnal convection, particularly Wed.

At the surface, the area will initially be under the influence of a moderating Canadian maritime airmass Monday and Tuesday with surface high pressure slowly sliding east through the Canadian maritimes in wake of departing shortwave energy. This should keep the area fairly quiet to start the week, with onshore flow and any focus for convection staying to the W and SW of the region.

A warm front approaches late Tuesday into Tuesday Night and likely lifts through the area Wednesday morning, with some indication of an earlier mentioned very weak shortwave/buckling of trough moving through aloft. This will present a trigger for convection Wed, particularly in the aft/eve, although the focus is a bit more vague at this point. This warm frontal passage and SW flow will begin a stretch of very warm and humid weather into at least Friday, and possibly Saturday. Heat indices of around 95 degrees possible for NE NJ, NYC metro and Lower Hud, with widespread highs in the mid to upper 80s, to around 90 NYC metro and NE NJ and Interior valleys.

Indication of building heights on Thursday and Friday, with region warm sectored. Progress of the earlier mentioned shearing southern closed low will determine if there is a trigger for afternoon convection both days, but at this point doesn't looks so. Looks like this feature still may be well SW/S of the region. So only a conditional potential for some isolated convection off terrain and seabreeze boundaries in a moderate to highly unstable airmass, but likely weakly capped and weak shear. Widespread temps in the upper 80s to lower 90s likely for Thursday with heat indices of 95-100 likely. Temps and heat indices on Friday become a bit more uncertain, predicated on evolution of southern low, and timing and track up the coast. Potential for temps and heat indices to rise to similar levels as Thursday, but potential onshore flow and increased cloud cover ahead of the southern low may limit potential heating.

Then, as mentioned the interaction of the next northern stream shortwave and the southern low, will likely result in amplification of troughing down the East Coast. Indication of the southern low tracking up the coast on Saturday, as a cold front approaches the region. Quite a bit of spread in the evolution of this low and interaction with the frontal boundary, but potential exists for more widespread shra/tsra activity in very moist (PWATS of 2-2 1/2") and unstable environment. If the southern low interacts with the front as it moves through the area, an excessive rainfall threat would exist. Will of course have to monitor NHC forecast for any tropical/sub tropical characteristics to this low as well. Otherwise, very warm and very humid conditions likely for Saturday, but high temperatures and heat indices will depend on evolution of upper low.

Fairly good agreement on mean troughing lingering Sunday into Monday, with cold front coming through the area Saturday Night. A very warm but drier airmass likely as Canadian high pressure sliding across Northern New England.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Weak high pressure will remain over the area.

Mainly VFR through the TAF period. Will have to keep an eye on some terminals for low ceilings overnight into early Sunday morning. Most likely this will occur at KGON, and possibly KISP. Elsewhere cannot totally rule out brief MVFR cigs right around or just after daybreak.

Light winds tonight will become more westerly, then northwesterly towards daybreak. Coastal sea breezes are expected once again Sunday afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. Sunday night. Mainly VFR. Monday through Thursday. Afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms possible, mainly from the NYC metros north/west.

MARINE. Sub SCA conditions are expected across all waters through next week due to a weak flow. Seas of 2 to 3 ft to start the week, with a persistent S/SW flow will have wind waves building to 3 to 4 ft for mid to late week, with a background E/SE swell.

HYDROLOGY. Widespread hydrologic issues are not anticipated at this time.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for southern Nassau County tonight.

A light SE flow, and weak SE swell, in conjunction with high astronomical tides and background anomaly will have water levels a few tenths above minor flood thresholds for the the south shore bays of Nassau county, while vulnerable locales along Jamaica bay, lower NY/NJ harbor, and the shoreline of southern Fairfield and southern Westchester will likely touch or slightly exceed minor flood thresholds.

The threat for localized minor coastal flooding should lessen on Sunday as tide levels slowly fall.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is undergoing its final stages of testing, and is operating at full power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ179. NJ . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . JC/NV NEAR TERM . JC/NV SHORT TERM . JC LONG TERM . NV AVIATION . Goodman MARINE . JC/NV HYDROLOGY . JC/NV TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . NV EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 35 mi21 min SE 5.8 G 7.8 69°F 72°F1013.5 hPa66°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 37 mi43 min WSW 4.1 G 5.1 75°F 73°F1012.4 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 38 mi43 min SSW 5.1 G 8 76°F 70°F1012.3 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 43 mi43 min 72°F 66°F1013.5 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 44 mi21 min SE 3.9 G 5.8 71°F 74°F1013 hPa66°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 49 mi61 min SE 3.9 G 5.8 78°F 1 ft69°F

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Gabreski Airport, NY5 mi68 minS 610.00 miFair72°F64°F79%1014 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY9 mi65 minS 610.00 miFair74°F64°F71%1013.3 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY22 mi65 minS 710.00 miA Few Clouds74°F64°F74%1013.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFOK

Wind History from FOK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3NE4N4N6N4--NE7N5N4N6N7N7N6N8N8NE114N5E7SE7E6SE5S6S3
1 day agoSW5W4CalmCalmNW3NW5N4N7NW6N7N8N6N6N6NW5NW5N5SE8SE8SE6----E6E6
2 days agoSW4NW3Calm------CalmCalm--NW5NW5N5N7N4N8----S7SW10SW10SW9SW9SW11SW6

Tide / Current Tables for Potunk Point, Moriches Bay, Long Island, New York
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Potunk Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:38 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 05:35 AM EDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:26 AM EDT     0.53 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:37 PM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:17 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:47 PM EDT     0.68 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.50.40.20.1-0-00.10.20.30.50.50.50.40.30.20.1000.10.20.40.50.6

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:07 AM EDT     -1.86 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 03:48 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:38 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:21 AM EDT     1.37 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 09:02 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 12:16 PM EDT     -1.67 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 03:41 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:34 PM EDT     1.90 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 08:16 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:44 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.9-1.7-1.3-0.80.211.31.30.90-0.8-1.3-1.7-1.6-1.2-0.60.31.31.81.91.50.7-0.3-1.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.