Wednesday, August21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Center Moriches, NY

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:06AMSunset 7:43PM Wednesday August 21, 2019 12:57 AM EDT (04:57 UTC) Moonrise 10:55PMMoonset 11:43AM Illumination 70% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 924 Pm Edt Tue Aug 20 2019
Tonight..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers and tstms after midnight. Chance of showers and tstms late.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..W winds around 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming E after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..NE winds around 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 924 Pm Edt Tue Aug 20 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure across the area waters will shift east tonight. A warm front will move north of the area on Wednesday. A cold front will then approach the waters late Wednesday night and slowly move through the area Thursday into Friday, followed by high pressure into the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Center Moriches, NY
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location: 40.78, -72.78     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 210300
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1100 pm edt Tue aug 20 2019

Synopsis
High pressure across the region will shift east tonight. A warm
front will then move north of the area on Wednesday followed by
an approaching cold front late Wednesday night. A cold front
will slowly move through the area Thursday into Friday, followed
by high pressure into the weekend. Unsettled weather may return
early next week.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
High pressure across the area will shift east tonight as a warm
front approaches from the south. Both moisture and pops will
increase through the night, with short term model trends
continuing to indicate that the best chances of precipitation
will be after midnight, although even then shower thunderstorm
coverage may be limited. Adjusted temperatures and dewpoints to
better capture current trends, with overnight lows ranging from
the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through Wednesday night
As a warm front pushes north across the area on Wednesday, a
very humid airmass will usher in across the area with dewpoints
rising into the lower 70s in southerly flow. A weak shortwave
will interact with the warm front as it lifts north, which could
spark a few morning showers and thunderstorms. Given the moist
airmass, any thunderstorms will have the potential for gusty
winds and local downpours, especially north across of our cwa.

Thunderstorms will continue through Wednesday afternoon as an
upper trough over the great lakes sends a cold front towards
the area. Upper level jet support combined with mid level
shortwave energy will initiate convective development during
the afternoon. Forecast soundings showing >2000 j kg of cape
into the afternoon along with increasing shear with the
incoming trough. With a favorable storm environment, the storm
prediction center has placed the area under a slight risk.

Southwesterly flow will advect in precipitable water of near 2
inches, therefore heavy downpours are likely in any storm.

Showers will continue through Wednesday night as the cold front
approaches the area from the west.

Temperatures on Wednesday will be in the mid to upper 80s to
near 90. The combination of heat and increasing dewpoints will
result in heat indices in the low to mid 90s with the exception
of eastern long island and southeastern coastal connecticut.

Wednesday night lows will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

There is a moderate risk of rip current development at ocean
beaches for Wednesday.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
Cold front slowly pushes through the area Thu into Thu night.

Both GFS and NAM soundings are indicating a capping inversion
around h8 which would limit shower TSTM activity. This inversion
may weaken late in the afternoon and into the evening so have
highest pops during this time, although only chc appear
warranted at this time. The low chc showers continues Thu night
as the front moves through. It should clear the area by fri
morning and appears to be far enough south to keep any pcpn
associated with weak waves of low pres riding along it to the
south as well. The heat and humidity will vanish as well as a
cp airmass is ushered in behind the front.

Upper trough will remain over the northeast into the weekend,
although increasing subsidence from strong sfc high pres
traversing eastern canada will result in dry and pleasant
conditions. Have maintained a dry forecast into early next week
although an increasing easterly flow Sun Mon could lead to low
clouds and perhaps some drizzle or light rain at the coast. The
12z ec is also less progressive with the upper flow and is now
cutting off the flow at h5 over the northeast. GFS does this as
well but over the northern atlantic. If the former pans out,
then there could be more shower activity around between Sun and
tue as it is slow to depart. Temperatures are expected to be
below normal levels Fri through mon, then near normal on tue.

Aviation 03z Wednesday through Sunday
High pressure across the terminals will drift into the western
atlantic overnight as a warm front approaches. The warm front
will move through the area Wednesday morning. A pre frontal
trough will develop Wednesday afternoon across eastern
pennsylvania and upstate new york ahead of an approaching cold
front, with showers and thunderstorms becoming likely.

Vfr through Wednesday morning. Scattered showers and maybe an
isolated thunderstorm will be possible ahead of the warm front
late overnight into early Wednesday morning, and with the
uncertainty have vcsh in the terminals. There is a low chance
of MVFR stratus as the warm front moves through. After the warm
frontal passage there will likely be a break in the showers
until Wednesday afternoon when thunderstorms and showers will be
possible, with the better chance across the lower hudson valley
into southern connecticut. MVFR will be likely with the
thunderstorms.

Southerly winds will be less than 10 kt tonight, with winds
light and variable at the out lying terminals. Winds increase to
10 to around 15 kt Wednesday morning, with gusts to around 20 kt
possible at the nyc terminals Wednesday afternoon.

Outlook for 00z Thursday through Sunday
Wednesday night-Thursday night MainlyVFR, MVFR or lower is
possible in showers and thunderstorms.

Friday-Sunday Vfr.

Marine
Winds and seas will remain below SCA criteria through Wednesday with
seas increasing to SCA criteria by Wednesday night ahead of a cold
front.

Winds and seas on the ocean waters may reach marginal SCA levels sun
into Mon due to an increasing easterly flow. Otherwise, sub-advsy
conds are expected through the remainder of the period.

Hydrology
Locally heavy rainfall is possible with thunderstorms that
develop Wednesday, which may result in localized flooding for
urban and poor drainage areas. No hydrologic impacts are
expected Thu through tue.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) remains off
the air.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Fig 24
near term... Feb fig
short term... Fig
long term... 24
aviation... 19
marine... Fig 24
hydrology...

equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44069 17 mi72 min S 5.8 G 7.8 77°F 80°F74°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 35 mi63 min SW 1.9 G 4.1 78°F 78°F1016.7 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 35 mi63 min WSW 4.1 G 5.1 78°F 78°F1016.9 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 39 mi47 min S 5.8 G 7.8 77°F 1017.7 hPa73°F
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 42 mi67 min SE 3.9 G 5.8 77°F 77°F2 ft1017.1 hPa (-0.3)
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 47 mi63 min 76°F 74°F1017.8 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY5 mi61 minS 310.00 miFair75°F70°F84%1017.4 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY9 mi64 minN 010.00 miFair66°F62°F87%1018.1 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY17 mi61 minSSE 410.00 miMostly Cloudy76°F72°F88%1017.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHWV

Wind History from HWV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------W3N3N4--CalmN5N6N6N65S4SW8SW8S7--S10S5S4CalmCalmS3
1 day ago------S8----W4CalmSW5--S5S9S8S9S9S9
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SW11W8CalmSW4CalmSW3
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmSE3--S3SW5S7S8S7S8SW8SW8S8SW9SW10SW7W6--

Tide / Current Tables for Moriches Inlet, Long Island, New York
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Moriches Inlet
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Wed -- 04:55 AM EDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:26 AM EDT     2.88 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:42 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:25 PM EDT     0.65 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:40 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:54 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:44 PM EDT     2.69 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.72.21.50.90.50.30.511.72.32.72.92.82.521.30.90.70.70.91.422.42.6

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:42 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:50 AM EDT     -1.34 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:32 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:06 AM EDT     1.23 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 11:41 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 02:14 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:20 PM EDT     -1.26 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 07:39 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:10 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 10:53 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:28 PM EDT     1.05 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.5-0.2-0.9-1.3-1.3-1.1-0.7-0.20.30.91.21.10.80.2-0.6-1.1-1.2-1.2-0.8-0.5-0.10.51

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.