Thursday, December12, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Center Moriches, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 4:25PM Thursday December 12, 2019 4:25 PM EST (21:25 UTC) Moonrise 5:59PMMoonset 8:21AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 400 Pm Est Thu Dec 12 2019
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of drizzle in the morning, then chance of rain in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Sat night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers in the evening.
Sun..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sun night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Mon night..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming E after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain and snow in the evening, then rain likely after midnight.
Tue..E winds around 10 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Rain likely.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of rain in the evening.
ANZ300 400 Pm Est Thu Dec 12 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure moves east tonight. Low pressure approaches from the south Friday and passes through on Saturday. High pressure builds in Sunday into Monday. Another storm then impacts the area for late Monday night into much of Tuesday. High pressure then builds in Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Center Moriches, NY
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location: 40.78, -72.78     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 121831 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 131 PM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

SYNOPSIS. Dense arctic high pressure system shifts over the Tri-State area today then continues to move east and offshore tonight. Low pressure approaches from the south Friday and passes through on Saturday with high pressure building back in Sunday and Monday. Another storm then impacts the area for Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Strong high pressure building over the region will lead to a sunny and cold day. Only minor adjustments made to the forecast to reflect the latest observations.

Temperatures will be approximately 10 degrees lower than the daily normals.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. High pressure shifts offshore this evening and overnight as winds become more southerly allowing for moisture in the low levels to begin to return to the region. In the upper levels of the atmosphere a trough axis over the Lower Mississippi Valley promotes a southwest to northeast upper level flow. In this flow regime deep sub-tropical air will be able to moisten the environment locally.

Expected an chance for scattered showers Friday afternoon into the evening as cloudiness increases throughout the day though isolated showers could be possible in the late morning hours as well. Temperatures return to near normal reaching the mid 40s by the afternoon.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. The long term period starts off wet as an area of low pressure impacts the region Friday night through Saturday night. POPs will gradually increase Friday night with rain rain becoming likely.

The center of the storm is expected to pass over or nearby the Tri- State Area Saturday morning into the early afternoon. Increasing lift with deep moisture brings primarily rainfall that will be moderate, to locally heavy at times. Rain chances gradually drop off through Saturday night with the storm off to the east and a westerly flow developing in its wake. There may be a few left over showers early Sunday morning, but overall, drier weather is expected on Sunday.

High passes over the area on Monday, with dry weather continuing. The next low pressure system then approaches from the Ohio Valley Monday night with increasing chances of rain, snow, or a rain/snow mix into Tuesday. Will continue to keep PoPs limited to no higher than 50% through Tuesday night as 00z forecast models continue to show different storm tracks. The exact track will have implications on precipitation type. Went with the middle ground for this forecast, including simplified PCPN types this far out in time, however, it is possible we could see some sleet or even some freezing rain depending on the exact track of the low, and at this point, its too far out to determine that now. High pressure would then follow for Wednesday with dry weather.

AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. High pressure builds over the region this afternoon and then moves offshore tonight into Friday.

VFR though most of the TAF period with MVFR ceilings developing on Friday with chances of rain increasing during the day.

N-NNW winds 5-10 kt become light and variable mid to late this afternoon, eventually becoming more E-SE tonight into Friday around 5 kts.

. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support .

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Low confidence on wind direction mid to late this afternoon. Winds go from north flow to more east to southeast flow.

KLGA TAF Comments: Low confidence on wind direction mid to late this afternoon. Winds go from north flow to more east to southeast flow.

KEWR TAF Comments: Low confidence on wind direction mid to late this afternoon. Winds go from north flow to more east to southeast flow.

KTEB TAF Comments: Low confidence on wind direction mid to late this afternoon. Winds go from north flow to more east to southeast flow.

KHPN TAF Comments: Low confidence on wind direction mid to late this afternoon. Winds go from north flow to more east to southeast flow.

KISP TAF Comments: Low confidence on wind direction mid to late this afternoon. Winds go from north flow to more east to southeast flow.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. Friday and Friday night. MVFR or lower. Rain developing, especially Friday night. Saturday. IFR in rain, becoming scattered showers late at night. LLWS possible. Sunday. Generally VFR. West winds 10-15kt gusts 20-30kt. Sunday night-Monday. VFR. Some west wind gusts to 20 kt Sunday night. Monday night-Tuesday. MVFR to IFR possible. Chance of snow for inland terminals changing to wintry mix and then to rain. Chance of rain for coastal terminals.

MARINE. Wave heights will continue to diminish with offshore waters 2-3 feet. South winds strengthen Friday and waves increase through the day reaching 4-5 feet by the late afternoon.

Winds and seas continue to increase Friday night ahead of low pressure, which is expected to pass through or nearby during Saturday morning or early afternoon. SCA conditions area expected on the ocean waters Friday night through Saturday. For the non-ocean waters, there is a chance we remain sub-sca as gusts do not reach 25 kt and seas do not reach 5 ft. The exact track of the low will determine whether or not sca conditions are met.

Winds then pick up from the west on Saturday night and Sunday behind the storm. SCA conds likely for all waters, and potentially gales Sunday into Sunday night on the ocean, eastern LI Sound and the eastern LI bays. Winds and seas subside on Monday with the approach of a high pressure ridge, but possibly still within advisory criteria for a portion of the day.

HYDROLOGY. 1.00 to 1.50 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts are anticipated from Friday night through Saturday. Minor nuisance flooding will be possible with this event.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. There will be a chance of coastal flooding with the high tide cycle during Saturday morning. This will be due to onshore winds with an approaching storm combined with relatively high astronomical tides due to a nearly full moon. Minor coastal flooding will be possible primarily along the south shore back bays of Long Island, where even moderate coastal flooding is a possibility at least along the Nassau County bays. Minor flooding will also be possible along NY Harbor and parts of Western Long Island Sound. Confidence is not high at this point as the event is still a few days away, and shifts in storm's track and/or timing would change the flooding potential.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still operating at reduced power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . BC/DJ/16 NEAR TERM . CB/DJ/16/PW SHORT TERM . DJ/16 LONG TERM . JC AVIATION . JM MARINE . CB/BC/DJ/16/PW HYDROLOGY . BC/DJ/16 TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44069 17 mi55 min S 3.9 G 5.8 33°F 39°F16°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 35 mi61 min ENE 4.1 G 5.1 33°F 44°F1038.7 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 35 mi55 min SW 2.9 G 5.1 34°F 42°F1038.7 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 42 mi35 min NE 3.9 G 5.8 35°F 50°F2 ft1039.8 hPa (+0.0)
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 44 mi65 min SSE 5.8 G 7.8 34°F 13°F
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 47 mi61 min 36°F 44°F1039.7 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY5 mi89 minN 010.00 miFair33°F14°F45%1039.5 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY9 mi92 minN 010.00 miFair32°F14°F47%1040 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY17 mi89 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy33°F15°F48%1039.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHWV

Wind History from HWV (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Moriches Inlet, Long Island, New York
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Moriches Inlet
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:13 AM EST     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:14 AM EST     Full Moon
Thu -- 06:29 AM EST     3.40 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:21 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 01:03 PM EST     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:23 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 04:59 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:01 PM EST     2.77 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.100.61.52.433.43.32.92.11.30.60-0.2-00.61.42.12.62.82.621.20.5

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:14 AM EST     Full Moon
Thu -- 03:11 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:55 AM EST     1.78 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:20 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 09:12 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:32 PM EST     -1.79 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:10 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:22 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 04:57 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:23 PM EST     1.31 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 09:24 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.5-1.3-0.7-0.10.71.51.81.510.2-0.7-1.4-1.7-1.7-1.4-0.8-0.10.71.31.20.90.3-0.5-1.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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