Saturday, October19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Brentwood, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 6:08PM Saturday October 19, 2019 6:13 PM EDT (22:13 UTC) Moonrise 10:12PMMoonset 12:39PM Illumination 63% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 405 Pm Edt Sat Oct 19 2019
Tonight..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain likely, especially in the afternoon.
Sun night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain likely, especially in the evening.
Mon..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft after midnight. Showers likely, especially in the evening.
Wed..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 405 Pm Edt Sat Oct 19 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure will drift out to sea tonight. Low pressure will then pass well to the south from Sunday into Sunday night. Weak high pressure will follow for Monday before a frontal system moves across Tuesday into Tuesday night. High pressure will follow for Wednesday and Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brentwood, NY
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location: 40.81, -73.28     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 192028
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
428 pm edt Sat oct 19 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will drift out to sea tonight. Low pressure will
track off the carolina coast by Sunday, and pass well to the
south from Sunday into Sunday night. Weak high pressure will
follow for Monday before a frontal system moves across Tuesday
into Tuesday night. High pressure will follow for Wednesday and
Thursday, before another frontal system approaches Friday into
Saturday.

Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
High pressure over the area will present a tricky temperature
forecast for tonight, as good initial radiational cooling may be
offset by increasing clouds overnight. Because of the increase in
clouds late, a blend of the guidance was used as opposed to the
coldest numbers. If the clouds do not slow the radiational cooling,
lows could be several degrees lower than forecast, particularly
across the outlying areas. Patchy frost has been included in the
forecast for these areas.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through Sunday night
Low pressure will reach CAPE hatteras around 18z, then continue east
northeast through Sunday night. The NAM is a northerly outlier in
the 12z model suite. For this reason, precipitation amounts and
probabilities have been held back from the wettest NAM solution. The
forecast area may be in the gradient from rain to dry with this
event, as it looks likely that southern and western areas will at
least see some rain, with some of the modeling keeping parts of ct
dry. The forecast leaves room for adjustment should a solid
trend consensus develop with the 00z model runs. Otherwise,
increasing clouds can be expected, with temperatures around 60
during the day and nighttime readings mainly in the 40s. The nbm was
followed closely for temperatures with the clouds and easterly
component low level wind.

Long term Monday through Saturday
Long range guidance in closer agreement on timing on the next
frontal system to pass through Tue into Tue night. Showers
appear most likely from late day Tue night into Tue evening,
with no more than a lingering shower out east by daybreak wed.

Could be some bands of heavier showers, mainly NW of the cwa
where better mid level forcing should be headed, but with ecmwf
forecasting a wave of low pressure to develop along the front
farther south, could see heavier showers with any associated llj
that develops, with higher chances for that across long island
and ct.

High pressure and dry conds follow for Wed through Thu night,
then another frontal system may follow for Fri into sat. Latest
op ECMWF has completely backed off its prior idea of phasing of
northern southern streams leading to a meridional trough tapping
into gulf moisture, so forecast then remains somewhat uncertain.

Temps should remain at least a few deg above normal through the
period.

Aviation 20z Saturday through Thursday
High pressure will push offshore Sunday morning.VFR conditions
with light winds less than 10 kt expected tonight, then MVFR
conditions developing in light rain and CIGS across nyc
terminals as post-tropical cyclone nestor approaches later on
Sunday. Light e-ne flow should develop after 12z Sunday, then
increase to around 10 kt by Sunday afternoon.

Outlook for 20z Sunday through Wednesday
Sunday MVFR or lower conds possible.

Monday Vfr.

Tuesday Showers likely with MVFR or lower conditions,
especially late day and at night.

Wednesday and Thursday Vfr.

Marine
Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through the day on
Sunday with high pressure generally over the area. NE winds will
increase Sunday night, with gusts AOA 25 kt possible after
midnight, especially on the ocean. An advisory may be needed.

Longer term, ocean seas of 5 ft or more likely into mid week,
first as post-tropical cyclone nestor passes well to the se,
then as a frontal system passes through Tue night.

Hydrology
No hydrologic impacts are anticipated through Sunday night.

Rainfall of up to 1 2 inch may be possible well NW of nyc late
day Tue into Tue night.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) remains off the
air.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44069 13 mi74 min SW 12 G 14 54°F 56°F45°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 19 mi74 min SSW 7.8 G 9.7 60°F 38°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 24 mi59 min S 7.8 G 12 59°F 32°F42°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 26 mi80 min SW 7 G 12 57°F 61°F1015.6 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 26 mi74 min SW 8 G 9.9 60°F 61°F1017 hPa (-0.9)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 38 mi44 min S 7.8 G 12 56°F 62°F1016.9 hPa46°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 38 mi74 min WSW 12 G 17 58°F 59°F1015.5 hPa (-0.4)
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 39 mi84 min WSW 7.8 G 12 55°F 63°F1 ft1017.5 hPa (-0.8)
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 40 mi74 min 62°F 62°F1016.5 hPa (-1.1)
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 43 mi74 min WSW 9.9 G 12 61°F 1016.4 hPa (-1.0)
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 45 mi74 min SSE 7 G 8.9 57°F 60°F1017.1 hPa (-0.8)
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 47 mi80 min 63°F 62°F1016.5 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY9 mi21 minSW 610.00 miFair54°F39°F59%1017 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY10 mi78 minSSW 910.00 miPartly Cloudy55°F42°F62%1016.7 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY22 mi78 minSSW 610.00 miFair55°F39°F57%1016.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFRG

Wind History from FRG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW7NW8W8NW4W3W53CalmCalmW3CalmNW3CalmW3NW5N6NW5Calm4SW8S10SW8SW7SW6
1 day agoNW14
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2 days agoSE18
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Tide / Current Tables for Northport, Northport Bay, Long Island Sound, New York
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Northport
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:18 AM EDT     7.11 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:24 AM EDT     1.19 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:40 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 03:34 PM EDT     7.90 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:08 PM EDT     0.70 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:12 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.45.16.47.16.95.94.42.91.81.21.32.23.75.46.97.87.875.43.72.21.20.71

Tide / Current Tables for Bay Shore, Watchogue Creek Entrance, Long Island, New York
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Bay Shore
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:31 AM EDT     0.69 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:12 AM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:39 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 02:54 PM EDT     1.14 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:39 PM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:12 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.60.70.70.60.40.20.1-000.20.40.70.91.11.11.10.90.60.30.1-0-00.1

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.