Sunrise 5:47 AM   Sunset 7:52 PM Moonrise 3:02 AM   Moonset 1:24 PM

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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 318 Pm Edt Thu May 2 2024
Tonight - W winds around 5 kt, becoming nw late this evening, then becoming ne after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Fri - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Fri night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Sat - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Sat night - SE winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers after midnight. Sun - SE winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Sun night - SE winds around 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers likely. Mon - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Mon night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Tue - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.

ANZ300 318 Pm Edt Thu May 2 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A cold front passes offshore this evening followed by high pressure building down the new england coast through Friday. The high retreats farther offshore on Saturday as a frontal system approaches from the west. This system moves slowly through the region Saturday night into Sunday with the associated cold front passing through Monday. The front then stalls south of the region and moves back north as a warm front Tuesday into Wednesday.

FXUS61 KOKX 021737 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 137 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
A frontal system will slowly work across the area by early this evening. High pressure otherwise controls the weather through most of Saturday. A cold front then moves through Sunday night into Monday morning, then stalls south of the region. The front moves back north as a warm front Tuesday into Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
Low clouds continue to erode on the western side with the back edge across western LI and coastal CT. Much of the area is expected to become mostly sunny over the next 2 to 3 hours, the possible exception is far eastern LI and coastal SE CT. These areas could also clear out but then briefly see low clouds reform until winds go northerly this evening behind the cold front. Once again, forecast was updated to adjust temperatures down, especially coastal locations of LI and CT. Some locations along the immediate south shore and twin forks of LI and SE CT may not get out of the 50s. However, locations from NYC north and west still look to get into the upper 70s and lower 80s.

Patchy fog across CT and LI continues to burn off with very few locations now a mile or less.

Warm front struggles to pass eastern locations this afternoon, and may just get overtaken by the cold front this evening.

Continued dry for tonight as high pressure builds in from the north. Low temperatures a few degrees above normal.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
High pressure continues to build in from the north while a ridge axis aloft shifts towards us. Dry and cooler as winds arrive from the east, limiting the mixing depth. Went slightly cooler than NBM, which is close to its 25th percentile, and still might be a little too warm based on progged 925mb temps of 7-8C.

Dry for Friday night and at least Saturday morning, but generally lowering and thickening clouds are expected during this period. The ridge axis aloft will be right over us during Saturday and slow to move, so even Saturday afternoon stands a good chance of remaining dry. Will maintain slight chance PoPs west of the Hudson River in the afternoon. Mixing depth is limited once again for Saturday with an onshore flow and the ridge axis aloft. Went slightly cooler than the NBM again for high temps.

A cold front slowly approaches from the west Saturday night as it runs into ridging aloft. Associated rainfall with the front will also have a tough time pushing into the forecast area. Rain probabilities remain below likely through the night.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Upper level ridge axis shifts offshore early Sunday and the flow becomes near zonal by early next week. A longwave upper trough across eastern Canada amplifies into the northeast Tuesday and moves off shore Wednesday as another upper ridge builds to the west of the area and moves into the region Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front tracks across Sunday night into Monday, and becomes nearly stationary as the flow becomes parallel to the boundary. A period of some heavier showers will be possible Sunday as precipitable water values increase to 1.3 inches. NBM QPF probabilities remain similar to 24 hours ago. Probabilities of seeing 1 inch or more with this event are 20 to 15 percent from west to east, with the 90th percentile PQPF over 48 hours showing 1 to 1.5 inches, with the higher values over the western half of the area.

Tuesday into Wednesday high pressure builds south from the Hudson Bay region of Canada into the eastern Great Lakes. With a deep low tracking northward from the northern plains into southern Canada Tuesday into Wednesday the stalled cold front will move slowly northward as a warm front. There is uncertainty as to the movement of the front as high pressure, and an upper ridge will be in place.
Temperatures Friday night through Sunday will be around 5 degrees above normal, and then Sunday night into Wednesday 5 to 10 degrees above normal. For highs and lows Monday through Wednesday used a blend of NBM and NBM 75th percentile to raise temperatures a few degrees above the NBM. Depending on the movement of the warm front next week, there is a chance that a few locations will have a record high low Monday night into Tuesday morning.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A weak frontal system moves through the area this afternoon.
There is some uncertainty as to how quickly the associated cold front gets through the area, which could lead to wind timing and intensity issues. The front may struggle to get east of the coastal terminals for a time.

Mainly VFR across city terminals but KJFK may still experience IFR or MVFR ceilings for a few hours as a stubborn stratus deck remains in close proximity to the airport. But even at KJFK it is likely that status will dissipate. Further east it may take until the late afternoon to see a return to VFR. Stratus may reform eastern terminals later tonight and early on Friday but its not expected to be as widespread.

S winds under 10kt gradually veering to west as a frontal system attempts to work across the area. Gusts to 20 kt possible. Coastal areas may remain onshore. By late day/early evening, all the terminals should become more N/NE and E by Friday morning.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments are likely as conditions improve.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday: VFR.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers and MVFR conditions in the afternoon, increasing chances overnight.

Sunday...Likely showers, with MVFR or lower conditions. ESE winds G15-20kt.

Monday...VFR.

Tuesday... Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
The Dense Fog Advisory was extended to 4 pm for the ocean waters east of Fire Island Inlet and the eastern sound and bays. This will likely need to be refined for timing based on the progression and dissipation of the low clouds/fog the next few hours. Cold front moving through the waters this evening should be an end to the fog threat.

Winds will be at around 10 kt or less through the day today, but will increase out of NE behind late tonight as high pressure builds in behind a departed cold front. NE-E winds 10-15 kt Friday morning with gusts below 25 kt diminish in the afternoon. A weak pressure gradient then maintains sub-advisory conditions across the waters Friday night through the middle of next week.

HYDROLOGY
There are currently no hydrologic concerns through early next week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ331- 332-340-345-350-353.

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Northport
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Thu -- 12:28 AM EDT     1.18 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:02 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:30 AM EDT     7.38 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:00 PM EDT     0.66 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:23 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:08 PM EDT     7.46 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
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Bay Shore
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Thu -- 03:02 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:47 AM EDT     1.02 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:14 PM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:23 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:15 PM EDT     0.83 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
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Bay Shore, Watchogue Creek Entrance, Long Island, New York, Tide feet

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