Wednesday, January22, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mastic, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 4:57PM Wednesday January 22, 2020 7:07 PM EST (00:07 UTC) Moonrise 6:25AMMoonset 3:52PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 544 Pm Est Wed Jan 22 2020
Tonight..W winds around 5 kt early, becoming light and variable. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight.
Sat..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Rain.
Sat night..SE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft. Rain, mainly in the evening.
Sun..W winds around 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Mon night..N winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 544 Pm Est Wed Jan 22 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure remains over the waters through the end of the week. Low pressure will then impact the waters over the weekend before high pressure returns early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mastic, NY
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location: 40.83, -72.84     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 222346 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 646 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will remain across the area through Friday. Low pressure impacts the region this weekend. High pressure then builds back in early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/. The forecast is on track. Only updated evening hourly temps and dewpoints to capture trends.

High pressure will remain across the area tonight with nearly seasonable lows, ranging from the lower teens inland, to 25-30 across the NYC metro. A few of the colder spots will dip into the upper single digits due to strong radiational cooling (mostly clear and calm winds).

There could also be some high clouds working in from the west as the upper ridge along the eastern seaboard translates slowly east ahead of an amplifying southern branch trough over the mid section of the country. For the most part though, leaning toward it being a mostly clear night.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. Thus far this winter, the dominant southern branch of the polar jet has been in control. This will once again be the case as we head into the weekend with the approach of longwave trough and closed upper low. Before then though, there will be a gradual increase in upper level cloudiness as well as temperatures rising a few degrees above normal. Highs on Thursday will top out in the lower 40s, with lows generally in the 20s in outlying areas to around freezing NYC metro.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. High pressure will be centered to our northeast on Friday. This continues the dry weather pattern, but mid and high level clouds will probably filter the sunshine. High temperatures will be about 5 degrees above normal.

Models continue to be consistent regarding the upper and surface features for the storm that will impact us this weekend. A cutoff 500mb low moves through the Ohio Valley Friday night and eventually tracks over us late Saturday night. Associated surface low shifts NE from the Mid-Atlantic Saturday morning and passes through late Saturday night. Global models are in decent agreement with the track and timing of the storm and have converged on thermal profiles over the past 24 hours. The trend has been toward the warmer side of guidance regarding temperatures in an elevated warm layer. PCPN chances begin late Friday night with PCPN becoming likely for all areas by the end of Saturday morning. Chances then lower Saturday night into Sunday morning with chances still remaining into Sunday afternoon and evening with a cyclonic flow aloft.

PCPN type will be mainly rain for coastal areas with a wintry mix inland. Based on an average of model thermal profiles, it appears that even the coldest spots would see a complete changeover to rain at some point given forecast freezing level heights. NW Orange County could still receive around an inch of snow and sleet accumulation before this changeover. Additionally, a light ice accumulation is possible for some of the NW suburbs Saturday morning as the magnitude of the elevated warm layer would allow for it. Wintry PCPN types return Saturday night into Sunday as thermal profiles cool on the back side of the storm, but any additional snow/sleet accumulation would be very light and confined to mainly NW of NYC.

High pressure builds in behind the storm with dry weather for Monday through Wednesday. Highs all 3 days about 5 degrees above normal.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. High pressure will remain over the area into Thursday and Thursday night.

VFR with a few high clouds. Light and variable winds through tonight, with outlying terminals having calm winds much of the time. Winds then return out of the WSW Thursday morning, again only at around 5 kt.

OUTLOOK FOR 0Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. Thursday night-Friday night. VFR. Saturday-Saturday night. MVFR/IFR in rain at the coast, mixed precipitation across the interior likely changing to rain. E winds 10-20G20-25 kt during the day diminish at night. Sunday-Sunday night. MVFR/IFR possible in lingering showers. Rain/snow mix possible in any showers across the interior. Monday. VFR.

MARINE. Tranquil conditions will prevail through Thursday with high pressure in control. Winds and seas increase on Friday and Friday night in advance of a storm system that will approach from the SW. Seas on the ocean likely could build to 5 ft Friday night. SCA conds then likely on Saturday for all waters as the low passes through or nearby. Winds on the back side of this storm so far do not appear to be strong, but 25 kt gusts will still be possible Sunday morning on the ocean. Ocean seas will take some time to subside, so 5 ft or greater seas on the ocean through the day on Sunday and probably into Sunday night. Sub- sca conds on all waters are anticipated for most of Monday.

HYDROLOGY. Around an inch of liquid equivalent precipitation is expected Saturday through Saturday night. No adverse hydrologic impacts are anticipated at this point.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. An easterly flow of 15-25 kt with relatively high astronomical high tides following a new moon Friday will bring the threat of at least minor coastal flooding during the high tides cycles of Saturday morning and evening. A good portion of the south shore back bays of Long Island (including Queens and Brooklyn) could be impacted as well as lower NY Harbor and Western Long Island Sound. Other areas could be impacted if the track of the upcoming weekend storm changes.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still operating at reduced power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . DW NEAR TERM . DW SHORT TERM . DW LONG TERM . JC AVIATION . JE MARINE . JC/DW HYDROLOGY . JC/DW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 30 mi67 min 34°F 38°F1030 hPa (+0.5)
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 32 mi67 min 35°F 37°F1030.1 hPa (+0.4)
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 40 mi67 min W 3.9 G 3.9 37°F 22°F
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 44 mi77 min 7.8 G 9.7 36°F 45°F2 ft1030.6 hPa (-0.0)
44022 - Execution Rocks 47 mi52 min ESE 1.9 G 1.9 35°F 32°F28°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 49 mi67 min 35°F 38°F1031 hPa (+0.4)
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 49 mi67 min 33°F 37°F1030.5 hPa (+0.3)

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY1 mi71 minN 010.00 miFair30°F19°F66%1030.9 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY11 mi74 minN 010.00 miFair25°F15°F66%1031.2 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY14 mi71 minN 010.00 miFair31°F19°F61%1030.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHWV

Wind History from HWV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3CalmN3CalmCalmN3CalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW5N10N53CalmW5NW5SW3S5CalmCalm
1 day agoN9N9NW5N10N10NW9N8NW7NW8NW4N3CalmNW3N10N11
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Tide / Current Tables for Moriches Inlet, Long Island, New York
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Moriches Inlet
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:49 AM EST     3.24 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:24 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:07 AM EST     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:52 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 04:55 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:15 PM EST     2.60 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:10 PM EST     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.51.21.92.63.13.22.92.31.60.80.1-0.2-00.51.11.82.32.62.521.40.80.2-0.1

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:10 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:21 AM EST     1.67 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 05:24 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:14 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 10:24 AM EST     -1.67 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 02:07 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:50 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 04:54 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 04:55 PM EST     1.22 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 07:21 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 10:32 PM EST     -1.53 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.8-0.20.81.41.71.61.10.2-0.6-1.3-1.6-1.6-1.4-0.9-0.10.71.11.210.3-0.5-1.1-1.5-1.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.