Monday, September20, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mastic, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:36AMSunset 6:53PM Monday September 20, 2021 2:36 AM EDT (06:36 UTC) Moonrise 7:09PMMoonset 5:58AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 1036 Pm Edt Sun Sep 19 2021
Tonight..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming E late. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft in the afternoon.
Mon night..E winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue..SE winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue night..SE winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Wed night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers after midnight.
Thu..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers.
Thu night..S winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Fri..SW winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 1036 Pm Edt Sun Sep 19 2021
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure centered over eastern canada will continue to build across the northeast tonight and settle off the new england coast on Monday. The high will gradually give way to a slow moving cold front during the middle of the week, which passes through the area late Thursday into Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mastic, NY
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location: 40.83, -72.84     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 200549 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 149 AM EDT Mon Sep 20 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will across the Northeast overnight and settle off the New England coast on Monday. The high will gradually give way to a slow moving cold front during the middle of the week, which passes through the area late Thursday into Friday. High pressure may briefly return Saturday ahead of another cold front for Sunday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/. High pressure continues to build in at the surface and a high amplitude ridge builds in aloft.

Great radiational cooling conditions under clear skies, light winds and a dry airmass will allow the interior and the LI Pine Barrens to drop to the mid 40s. The NYC metro area will drop to the lower 60s and the rest of the area into the 50s, which is around normal for mid September.

Patchy fog also not out of the question outside the NYC metro.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/. High pressure shifts off of the New England coast Monday morning and in return we see a more southeasterly flow. This onshore flow will allow the lower levels to gradually moisten under subsidence aloft.

Another dry and sunny day is expected, with highs in the 70s around the area. Lows will be warmer than Sunday night due to an onshore flow. There is a chance that fog and/or stratus develop early Tuesday morning as the lower levels reach saturation. Have introduce patchy fog late Monday night into early Tuesday morning for most of the area. Confidence is low in coverage, especially across Long Island where winds may be too high.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. The long term will start out with a large and anomalous ridge over the eastern seaboard and western Atlantic. Large surface high pressure will be centered near the Canadian Maritimes, but dominate the surface pattern across the northeast. The GFS and NAM soundings indicate a strong subsidence inversion on Tuesday, with moisture becoming trapped below it. Scattered to broken stratus or stratocumulus may result, especially across the western half of the area. The closer proximity to the surface high further east may limit the degree of cloud cover there on Tuesday. Highs will be close to seasonable levels in the lower and middle 70s.

The upper ridge gradually shifts offshore on Wednesday as an amplifying upper trough digs across the Great Lakes down into the southeast. The models are starting to come into better agreement that trough will become a cut-off upper low somewhere near the Ohio Valley or Great Lakes on Wednesday night. A cold front associated with the trough will gradually approach. However, the modeling continues to slow the system, down and this is largely due to the upper level low. The offshore ridging has also trended stronger and is likely playing a key role in slowing down the progress of the trough and front. With the trough cutting off, the associated surface low is progged to occlude as the system slowly lifts north Thursday into Friday. The global models and ensembles are still in disagreement with how quickly this occurs. In fact, there are still a respectable number of ensemble members that are showing a faster evolution with the cold front moving across the area sometime on Thursday or Thursday night. However, the latest deterministic runs have slowed down with the front moving through late Thursday night into Friday. Given the uncertainty with the upper low and offshore ridge, feel any of these scenarios are still plausible. The biggest change to the forecast was to lower PoPs on Wednesday and Wednesday night, which are below the NBM. Have indicated a gradual increase in PoPs Thursday into Thursday night. Due to a potential slower timing, have bumped PoPs up a bit on Friday.

As for sensible weather, a few warm advection showers cannot be ruled out on Wednesday/Wednesday night due to persistent onshore flow. However, the main axis of deep moisture, lift, and showers should reside west of the area until sometime on Thursday or Thursday night. Since the low pressure is likely to occlude, the overall large scale forcing may end up waning as the front moves across our area. This could play a role in how much rainfall would occur. Overall, there remains a risk of a widespread rainfall, potentially seeing amounts around one inch to one half inch on average. Forecast confidence remains low on specific rainfall amounts, rainfall rates, and potential impacts, if any.

The front may finally push offshore on Saturday as the upper trough to the west potentially amplifies further with a secondary cold front approaching for the second half of the weekend. Have currently gone with a mostly dry forecast for the weekend with the main axis of moisture offshore. If the trough were to be more amplified, the secondary front could bring some showers by next Sunday.

While somewhat cooler conditions are possible this weekend, temperatures overall should average close to normal.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. High pressure will build across the Northeast overnight and settle off the New England coast on Monday.

A mainly VFR forecast, but can't rule out some patchy sub-VFR conditions briefly outside the NYC metro prior to daybreak. This will likely become more of an issue Monday night as low levels continue to gradually moisten.

Winds will be near 5 kts or less and variable in direction but generally E-NE for NYC terminals. Winds for all terminals will become more SE and increase to near 7-10 kt for Monday.

. Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty . Low chance of a short period of IFR/MVFR ceilings prior to daybreak.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. Mon PM. Mainly VFR. Possible MVFR/IFR late with patchy fog and stratus. Tue. Chance of MVFR/ifr AM in patchy fog and stratus. Otherwise, VFR. Wed. MVFR or lower possible in showers mainly PM hours. SE winds 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Thu. MVFR or lower possible in showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms afternoon into evening. SE/S winds 10-15 kt gusts 20-25 kt. SE-S winds near 10 kt with gusts more in the 15-20 kt range at night. Fri. MVFR or lower possible in showers. SW-W winds near 10 kt with gusts 15-20 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE. Winds and seas will remain below SCA through Monday.

High pressure continues to slowly moves away from the waters Tuesday into Wednesday. SE flow between the high and a slow moving cold front will increase late Wednesday into Thursday. This may lead to ocean seas building to SCA levels on the ocean as well winds approaching 25 kt on the ocean. SCA conditions could continue on Friday, especially if the cold front moves through slower.

HYDROLOGY. No hydrologic impacts are expected through Wednesday.

A significant rainfall is possible with a slow moving cold front Thursday into potentially Friday. However, specific rainfall amounts and any impacts are too uncertain at this time.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. There is a moderate rip current risk through Tuesday due to persistent easterly swells.

Water levels are expected to remain just below minor coastal flooding benchmarks across the south shore back bays of Nassau county with this evening and Monday evening high tides.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . None.



UPDATE . DW/JP AVIATION . DW


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44069 16 mi67 min Calm G 0 69°F 78°F64°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 30 mi49 min N 4.1 G 5.1 61°F 74°F1024.1 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 32 mi49 min ENE 5.1 G 7 60°F 73°F1025.2 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 40 mi67 min NNE 5.8 G 7.8 66°F 57°F
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 43 mi37 min ESE 5.8 G 7.8 68°F 71°F1024.7 hPa55°F
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 44 mi37 min 3.9 G 3.9 71°F1024 hPa (+0.8)
44022 - Execution Rocks 47 mi52 min N 5.8 G 14 67°F 60°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 49 mi49 min Calm G 1 65°F 1025.4 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 49 mi49 min 62°F 71°F1024.7 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY1 mi41 minN 010.00 miFair57°F54°F90%1024.6 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY11 mi44 minN 010.00 miFair51°F49°F92%1025 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY14 mi41 minN 010.00 miFair59°F57°F93%1024.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHWV

Wind History from HWV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW6NW6NW9NW8N7N10
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556N5NW633CalmSE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day ago55N8N8N9N9N8NW9N56N7CalmNW7N3S5S4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW7NW7NW9
2 days ago44Calm434NE4444434NE3433N3N43N54N4N5

Tide / Current Tables for Moriches Inlet, Long Island, New York
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Moriches Inlet
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Mon -- 12:54 AM EDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:57 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:10 AM EDT     3.31 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:12 PM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:08 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:26 PM EDT     3.53 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:54 PM EDT     Full Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.1-0.10.10.81.62.433.33.12.61.81.10.400.20.71.52.43.13.53.42.92.11.3

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:16 AM EDT     -1.75 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 03:48 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:56 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:37 AM EDT     1.56 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 09:23 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 12:37 PM EDT     -1.71 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 04:05 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 06:53 PM EDT     1.64 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 07:07 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:54 PM EDT     Full Moon
Mon -- 09:46 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.7-1.7-1.3-0.80.21.11.51.51.20.3-0.5-1.2-1.6-1.7-1.4-0.9-0.10.91.51.61.40.7-0.2-1

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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