Tuesday, August4, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mastic, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:49AMSunset 8:04PM Tuesday August 4, 2020 1:59 AM EDT (05:59 UTC) Moonrise 9:05PMMoonset 6:32AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 1226 Am Edt Tue Aug 4 2020
.tropical storm warning in effect...
Overnight..Tropical storm conditions expected. SW winds 35 to 40 kt with gusts up to 60 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers and chance of tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less. Chance of showers early in the morning.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..NE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Thu night..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Fri night..E winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Sat..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers early in the morning.
Sat night..S winds around 5 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less in the evening. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1226 Am Edt Tue Aug 4 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A frontal boundary will stall over the area tonight. Tropical storm isaias will then move over the waters Tuesday and Tuesday night. A weak low pressure trough will linger in the wake of isaias on Wednesday, then stall to the south from Thursday into Saturday as weak waves of low pressure move along it. Please refer to national hurricane center forecasts for further details on isaias.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mastic, NY
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location: 40.83, -72.84     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 040545 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 145 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020

SYNOPSIS. A surface front will stall near the forecast area tonight. Tropical Storm Isaias will track along this boundary, directly impacting the area Tuesday afternoon and evening. A weak low pressure trough will linger in the wake of Isaias on Wednesday, then stall to the south from Thursday into Saturday as weak waves of low pressure move along it. Weak high pressure should return on Sunday and may last into Monday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/. A frontal boundary will stall near the area overnight as Isaias makes its way toward the area. Most models bring in a plume of moisture well ahead of the system suggesting some sort of predecessor rain event. Radar trends indicate rain should begin overspreading northeast New Jersey and the Lower Hudson Valley early this morning.

Otherwise, warm and humid conditions expected overnight, with lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/. **TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA**

The frontal boundary will remain stalled near the area. Meanwhile, an upper level low north of the Great Lakes region will pivot a trough through New England. This will steer Isaias over the area Tuesday afternoon.

A Flash Flood Watch continues for much of the forecast area. Please see the Hydrology section for more information regarding rainfall.

The highest wind threat with regard to Isaias should correspond to the eastern semicircle of the storm which places central and western Long Island, New York City, portions of northeast New Jersey, and portions of southern Westchester and southwest Connecticut along the axis of strongest winds. The timing for this looks to be from late in the day Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Two positive notes are that the storm is expected to accelerate to the north and northeast and it is expected to weaken as it does so. This may limit the duration of impactful winds to some extent for coastal sections. Sustained winds of around 50 mph are possible along coastal areas with gusts up to 70 mph. Generally speaking however, sustained winds of 40 to 50 are more likely across the forecast area, with gusts 55 to 70 mph.

Additionally, a strengthening low level jet will increase shear across the area. This may lead to the development of some tornadoes as Isaias moves approaches and moves through. The Storm Prediction Center has placed nearly the entire area in a slight risk for severe storms, with the primary threats being tornadoes and damaging winds (locally higher wind gusts outside of the tropical storm force winds expected to occur).

A high rip current risk remains for the ocean beaches Tuesday through Tuesday night.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. After Isaias passes, will still have to contend with an anomalously deep closed over southern Canada, maintaining deep layer SW flow and associated moisture/energy transfer aloft, as well as a shortwave trough diving in from the Pac NW on the back side of this low, which does not look to pass east of the area til Sunday morning. Showers/tstms may fire on Wed invof a lingering sfc trough, which then sinks to the south Wed night and stalls as weak disturbances ripple along it. Timing and placement of best rain chances appears to be Thu night and Fri night, and more so for Long Island and the NYC metro area and as compared to S CT.

Shortwave ridging aloft should finally move in for Sunday. Uncertain how long it will persist as model guidance shows the ridge passing east by Monday, followed by NW flow aloft and passing shortwave disturbances, a progression which may be a little too quick.

Temps during the period should be just a little above average, mostly in the 80s, with lower 90s possible in urban NE NJ on Wed and perhaps again by next Monday. Heat index values High temps combined with dewpoints in the 60s thru the period should yield heat index values close to actual temps.

A high rip current risk remains for the ocean beaches Tuesday through Tuesday night.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. ***High Impact Aviation Weather Expected Today***

Isaias continues moving quickly towards the NE from the Carolinas and Middle Atlantic today.

Mainly VFR early this morning will become MVFR as showers develop from south to north. E-SE winds will also increase through the morning as Isaias approaches. Showers will continue through the much of the day, with the greatest coverage from NYC metro terminals to the Lower Hudson Valley Terminals. There could be isolated thunderstorms, but have not included in TAF due to low confidence in coverage and duration.

The strongest winds are expected this afternoon with sustained winds 30-40 kt with gusts 45-60 kt. The strongest winds will likely occur across the coastal terminals. Low level wind shear is likely as well as winds at 2 kft could range between 60-70 kt 19-22z.

As Isaias moves away to the northeast in the late afternoon, a quick shift to SW winds is likely and conditions become VFR. Winds will also gradually diminish through the evening.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. Tuesday night. Conditions improving as Isaias lifts to the north east. Wednesday. VFR with any lingering showers ending. Thursday-Saturday. Mainly VFR.Afternoon SHRA possible.

MARINE. Conditions remain below SCA criteria through tonight. Conditions deteriorate Tuesday morning, with increasing tropical storm conditions from late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening across all of the coastal waters based on the latest forecast track of Isaias. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for all forecast waters. Winds of 45-50 kt will be possible with gusts up to 60 kt. Isolated gusts of just over 60 kts are possible. Conditions will then improve quickly Tuesday night from west to east. Wave heights will briefly build to around or just over 15 ft out on the ocean waters late Tuesday afternoon into the early evening, then subside fairly quickly into Tuesday night. Waves of 6 to 10 ft are possible on the sound waters and 3 to 5 ft across the back bays and Peconic and Gardiner's Bays.

Small craft conditions will then ensue on the ocean during the day on Wednesday due to elevated seas. As early as Wednesday night even the ocean waters should settle down to below SCA conditions for Wednesday night into Thursday with some 3-4 ft seas lingering out on the ocean.

HYDROLOGY. There is the potential for more widespread heavy rainfall, especially Tuesday into at least into the first half of Tuesday night as Isaias approaches the region. Additionally, the track of Isaias will need to be monitored to narrow down potential impacts for minor to moderate river flooding. Confidence in any moderate river flooding remains low due to rainfall forecast uncertainty.

A flash flood watch remains for Tuesday through Tuesday night for NYC, Northeast NJ, and the Lower Hudson Valley where guidance is lower with rain amounts for flash flood criteria. This is also closer to the heavier rain axis forecast.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Coastal flood warnings are now in effect for south facing shorelines of Long Island Sound, and western Long Island, and in/around NY Harbor, with advisories for the remaining waters.

A strong SE flow ahead of Tropical Storm Isaias could produce surge of 2 1/2 to 3 1/2 ft across the watch area and 1 to 2 ft elsewhere. This would result in widespread inundation of 1 to 2 ft with localized values up to 3 ft in the watch area. There is still uncertainty in the guidance at this time with preference toward the higher end of the PETSS and NYHOPS guidance.

This is appears to be a one-cycle event, as winds shift W on the back side of the storm late Tuesday evening.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) is undergoing its final stages of testing, and is operating at full power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Tropical Storm Warning for CTZ005>012. Flash Flood Watch from 6 AM EDT this morning through late tonight for CTZ005-006. Coastal Flood Warning from 10 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for CTZ009>012. NY . Tropical Storm Warning for NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179. Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for NYZ072-073-078-079-081-176-177. Flash Flood Watch from 6 AM EDT this morning through late tonight for NYZ067>075-176-178. Coastal Flood Warning from 8 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT Wednesday for NYZ074-075-080-178-179. Coastal Flood Warning from 10 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for NYZ071. High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for NYZ075-080- 081-178-179. High Surf Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for NYZ080-081-178-179. NJ . Tropical Storm Warning for NJZ002-004-006-103>108. Flash Flood Watch from 6 AM EDT this morning through late tonight for NJZ002-004-006-103>108. Coastal Flood Warning from 8 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT Wednesday for NJZ006-106-108. MARINE . Tropical Storm Warning for ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

SYNOPSIS . Goodman/JP NEAR TERM . Goodman/DBR SHORT TERM . JP LONG TERM . Goodman AVIATION . DS MARINE . Goodman/JP HYDROLOGY . Fig/Goodman TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44069 16 mi74 min SW 5.8 G 9.7 78°F 68°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 30 mi65 min 73°F 77°F1017.5 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 32 mi65 min 74°F 78°F1017.2 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 40 mi74 min SE 7.8 G 9.7 74°F 70°F
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 43 mi39 min S 3.9 G 7.8 76°F 77°F1018.6 hPa71°F
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 44 mi39 min SSW 7.8 G 12 80°F1017.6 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 47 mi59 min S 3.9 G 5.8 73°F 73°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 49 mi65 min 73°F 1018.5 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 49 mi65 min 75°F 73°F1018.5 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY1 mi63 minS 310.00 miA Few Clouds76°F64°F67%1018.5 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY11 mi66 minSSE 310.00 miA Few Clouds73°F68°F84%1019 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY14 mi63 minS 410.00 miFair73°F70°F90%1018.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHWV

Wind History from HWV (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Moriches Inlet, Long Island, New York
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Moriches Inlet
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Tue -- 02:04 AM EDT     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:32 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:13 AM EDT     3.00 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:10 PM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:27 PM EDT     3.52 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:04 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.2-0.10.10.71.42.12.732.92.31.710.40.10.30.91.72.53.13.53.432.2

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:29 AM EDT     -1.77 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:02 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:30 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:36 AM EDT     1.35 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 10:24 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 01:40 PM EDT     -1.59 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:02 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:45 PM EDT     1.66 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 08:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:03 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:56 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.3-1.7-1.7-1.4-0.9-00.91.31.310.3-0.5-1.1-1.5-1.6-1.3-0.8-00.91.61.71.40.8-0.1

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.