Friday, December13, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Baxter Estates, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 4:28PM Friday December 13, 2019 3:59 PM EST (20:59 UTC) Moonrise 6:57PMMoonset 9:28AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1221 Pm Est Fri Dec 13 2019
This afternoon..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Slight chance of rain early, then chance of rain late.
Tonight..E winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Rain. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Areas of fog in the morning. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers in the evening.
Sun..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Mon night..S winds around 5 kt, becoming E after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Rain, snow and sleet likely in the evening, then rain likely after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening.
Tue..NE winds around 10 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Rain likely, mainly in the morning.
Tue night..NW winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 1221 Pm Est Fri Dec 13 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure continues to move father offshore. Meanwhile, deepening low pressure approaches from the south and passes through the area Saturday. The low lifts up into the canadian maritimes Sunday as high pressure builds through Monday. Another low pressure system impacts the waters Monday night into Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Baxter Estates, NY
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location: 40.83, -73.7     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 132055 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 355 PM EST Fri Dec 13 2019

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure approaches from the south tonight, and passes to the north by Saturday night. High pressure builds Sunday through Sunday night. A frontal system impacts the region Monday through Tuesday. High pressure then closes out the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/. Rain moves in ahead of approaching trough, and could be heavy at times overnight. Any mixed precip over interior portions of southern CT (mainly the valley), will finally warm above freezing by evening.

As mentioned, deep moisture feed and times of strong lift will result in heavy rain at times. As the coastal front remains nearby, fog will likely develop as well under good WAA, and increasing lower level moisture.

A non diurnal trend in temps will occur.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. Rain continues in the morning ahead of sfc low, and mid/upper level shortwave passing northward ahead of main trough axis. The continuous rain should give way to periods of rain by afternoon as the sfc low and front begin to creep across the area ahead of upper trough. Drier air aloft begins to move in, so the main area of rain pushes north, but periods of lighter rain or showers continue late in the afternoon and into the evening before winding down. The sfc low deepens as it heads across New England. Winds shift throughout the day, east to southeast, then to the SW and eventually west behind the low. Gusty conditions are expected at night behind this departing system.

Mile temperatures in the 50s during the day will fall back into the mid 30s to around 40 at night.

After collaboration with surrounding offices, will hold off on flood watch at this time. More about hydrologic concerns below.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Dry conditions expected to start out this period as high pressure builds in from the west. It will be breezy however, as departing low continues to strengthen, allowing the pressure gradient to increase over the region. West winds could gust 25 to 35 mph during the day. Otherwise, conditions will be near seasonable, with temperatures in the lower to middle 40s.

The next system to impact the forecast area comes Monday as the high pushes offshore and a warm front approaches from the southwest while at the same time, an area of low pressure develops over the Ohio Valley. This low is forecast to track along the frontal boundary, moving in the vicinity of the forecast area Tuesday. Models show that the low will not be particularly strong as it heads over our region, but there could be a period of moderate precipitation Monday night associated with the approaching warm front.

Uncertainty with model solutions Monday night onward will make precipitation type difficult to forecast at this point. However, do think thermal profiles will be cold enough at the start to support all snow at the start for most places, with a quick changeover to rain along the coast by mid Monday morning. However, QPF amounts will be light at this point, so little in the way of accumulation is expected.

Despite warming aloft, there may be enough cold air in the lower levels where there may be an extended period of wintry precipitation inland, with freezing rain among the precipitation types. Again, this is 4 to 5 days out and the forecast is likely to change over the next couple of days.

Associated cold front will move through late Monday night into Tuesday. Canadian high pressure builds in Wednesday through the end of next week, bringing below normal temperatures, but dry conditions.

AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Low pressure approaches from the south tonight and passes through on Saturday.

MVFR bcmg IFR late aftn/early evening with rain becoming more steady at roughly the same time. Remaining IFR through the night.

Winds ESE from KJFK to points east bcmg more easterly late aftn/early evening. Rest of terminals mostly NE through the night. Winds will be strongest from KLGA/KJFK to points east.

LLWS possible tonight mainly at KGON with SE winds around 50kt at 2kft from approx 07-11z.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. Saturday aftn. IFR bcmg MVFR, shra. Saturday Night. Scattered showers, mainly early. Improving to VFR with W winds increasing to 15-20kt, G25-30kt. Sunday. VFR. West winds around 20kt,G25-35kt. Sunday night-Monday. VFR. W wind gusts diminish to 20 kt Sunday night. Monday night-Tuesday. MVFR to IFR possible. Chance of snow for inland terminals changing to a wintry mix and then to rain. Chance of mainly rain for coastal terminals, with a period of snow or a wintry mix at the start early Monday night. Wednesday. VFR with NW gusts 25-30kt.

MARINE. Easterly winds ahead of a front and low pressure tonight will continue. Although a few gusts to 25 kt are possible, feel they will be occasional, and not enough for SCA issuance for the non ocean waters. SCA remains in effect for the ocean for marginal winds and rough seas.

On Saturday, low pressure approaches and passes overhead resulting in a lull in winds as they turn to the SE. The winds however will then veer to the SW and W by evening, and increase quickly behind deepening low pressure to the north. Gales are expected during this time frame all waters.

Gales will continue for the ocean waters on Sunday as the pressure gradient increases due to strengthening departing low and building high to the west. There is the potential for gales over the remaining waters, but confidence is low at this point to extend the Gale Warning into Sunday. Winds begin to diminish late in the day Sunday, but should fall below SCA around daybreak Monday. The ocean waters may see SCA wind conditions once again Tuesday as a developing low move in the vicinity.

Waves on the ocean on Sunday will range 6 to 13 ft on Sunday. 5 to 8 ft waves are possible across the eastern sound, especially extreme eastern areas of the sound. Waves diminish during the day Sunday and Sunday night, falling below SCA before daybreak Monday on the eastern sound, and by late Monday morning for the ocean. Waves on the ocean build again Monday night as the frontal system and low pressure affect the waters. 5 to 8 ft waves are possible into Tuesday night.

HYDROLOGY. Have seen an uptick in guidance for rainfall tonight into Saturday. 1 1/2 to 2 21/2 inches of rain is expected across the area, with local higher amounts possible. Hard to pin point areas for the heaviest rain, but feel the most likely impact is poor drainage and urban flooding. Across northeast NJ, collaborated with neighbor office, and feel most impacts remains across the Passaic river basin. However, some impact in the local HSA is possible, depending on where heaviest rain occurs.

Another significant rainfall event is possible Monday through Tuesday. 0.50" to 1.25" of liquid equivalent is possible during this timeframe. There is uncertainty in this amount given uncertainty in the track of the low and frontal positions.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. There is increasing potential for minor coastal flooding with the high tide cycle during Saturday morning (departures of 1 to 2 ft are needed to reach minor benchmarks). This will be due to onshore winds with an approaching storm combined with relatively high astronomical tides due to a nearly full moon.

There is a bit of uncertainty on timing of windshift from SE to SW Saturday morning, which is reflected in a sizable spread of Stevens ensemble. Forecast below is based on a blend of ETSS, ESTOFS and approximately a 75th percentile Stevens forecast.

Minor coastal flooding is expected along the south shore bays of Nassau and Queens counties, as well as along the coast of SW CT and S Westchester due to a combo of water levels around minor flood levels and some wave actions. Localized minor flooding is likely along the most vulnerable locales of lower NY Harbor, eastern bays and north shore of LI, and along SE CT.

Along the Atlantic Ocean beach front breaking surf of 8 to 13 ft (highest eastern LI) will cause significant beach flooding and erosion during the times of high tide Saturday into Saturday Night. Scattered areas of dune erosion and localized washovers are possible during the times of high tide Saturday morning into afternoon.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still operating at reduced power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Coastal Flood Advisory from noon to 3 PM EST Saturday for CTZ009-010. NY . Coastal Flood Advisory from noon to 3 PM EST Saturday for NYZ071. Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM to noon EST Saturday for NYZ178-179. NJ . None. MARINE . Gale Warning from 6 PM Saturday to 6 AM EST Sunday for ANZ330- 335-338-340-345-350-353-355. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Saturday for ANZ350-353- 355.

SYNOPSIS . JP/PW NEAR TERM . PW SHORT TERM . PW LONG TERM . JP AVIATION . JC MARINE . JP/PW HYDROLOGY . PW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 4 mi65 min E 2.9 G 5.1 43°F 43°F1024.3 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 4 mi59 min ENE 12 G 16 43°F 32°F42°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 11 mi74 min ENE 14 G 19 43°F 1 ft40°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 19 mi65 min 48°F 45°F1023.2 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 23 mi65 min NE 7 G 8.9 45°F 1023.3 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 27 mi65 min 43°F 44°F1023.5 hPa
MHRN6 28 mi65 min N 6 G 6
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 30 mi65 min ENE 8 G 11 47°F 42°F1023.3 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 32 mi39 min E 9.7 G 12 51°F 1022.7 hPa49°F
44069 34 mi74 min NE 5.8 G 7.8 43°F 38°F42°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 36 mi65 min NNE 4.1 G 6 40°F 44°F1024.5 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 49 mi69 min SE 14 G 16 54°F 50°F7 ft1023.1 hPa (-3.6)

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY10 mi68 minNE 135.00 miFog/Mist44°F39°F85%1023.7 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY12 mi68 minENE 64.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist48°F48°F100%1023.8 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY15 mi68 minNE 76.00 miFog/Mist45°F42°F90%1023.5 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY17 mi66 minNNE 63.00 miLight Rain47°F43°F86%1023.8 hPa
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY17 mi2.1 hrsE 57.00 miLight Drizzle41°F37°F89%1025.2 hPa
Teterboro, Teterboro Airport, NJ19 mi68 minNE 55.00 miDrizzle Fog/Mist45°F42°F90%1023.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLGA

Wind History from LGA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6S5S6S7S5SE4SE3SE3NE5NE5NE6NE6E7NE4NE6NE6NE5NE9NE11NE12NE8NE10NE13NE12
1 day agoW10
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W12NW11N8N7N12NW14NW17NW9N9N11N6N4E45E7
2 days agoW8W14
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NW14NW12NW10NW13NW10N5N4NE10NE6N6N3N7N5N3W5W17
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Tide / Current Tables for Port Washington, Manhasset Bay, Long Island, New York
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:16 AM EST     -0.74 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 02:53 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:35 AM EST     0.99 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:27 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 09:01 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 12:38 PM EST     -0.73 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 03:11 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:27 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:57 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:58 PM EST     1.01 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 09:23 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.7-0.7-0.300.20.50.90.90.50-0.2-0.5-0.7-0.7-0.5-0.10.20.40.710.70.2-0.2-0.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.