Monday, October14, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Baxter Estates, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 6:18PM Monday October 14, 2019 6:42 AM EDT (10:42 UTC) Moonrise 7:05PMMoonset 7:34AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 350 Am Edt Mon Oct 14 2019
Today..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming sw late this morning and afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..SE winds around 10 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Rain in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..E winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..W winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu night..W winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming nw around 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 350 Am Edt Mon Oct 14 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Weak low pressure will pass just southeast of long island this morning and eventually into the gulf of maine this afternoon into tonight. A cold front will move across the waters tonight with high pressure building in thereafter through Tuesday. This will give way to an approaching low pressure system for midweek. The central low of this system moves northeast of the region by Thursday and into the canadian maritimes by Friday. Meanwhile, high pressure will gradually build into the waters from the south and west for the end of this week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Baxter Estates, NY
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location: 40.83, -73.7     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 140900
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
500 am edt Mon oct 14 2019

Synopsis
Weak low pressure will pass just southeast of long island this
morning and eventually into the gulf of maine this afternoon into
tonight. A cold front will move across the area tonight with
high pressure building in thereafter through Tuesday. Deepening
low pressure will move across the area Wednesday, tracking
across the canadian maritimes late in the week. High pressure
builds next weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Upper level jet streak exits to the northeast today along with
the weak surface low. The low will be moving from just southeast
of long island to eventually the gulf of maine by tonight.

Rainfall is expected to end early this morning with a gradual
decrease in clouds from west to east as flow aloft becomes
quasi-zonal.

There will be another cold front approaching late in the day but
this will be weak as the parent low will be filling during the
day with an increase in its central pressure. The overall
westerly flow through the atmosphere will make moisture quite
limited with the front.

Therefore, continue to have a decrease in clouds today into this
evening. Went with warmer side of guidance and slightly
increased across northeast nj, nyc and lower hudson valley with
high temperatures. The highs used originated from a blend of ecs
and gmos. Highs forecast range from the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Tuesday
Quasi-zonal flow remains tonight into Tuesday but becomes more
sw late Tuesday, which will be in advance of an approaching
upper level trough.

The aforementioned cold front will be moving across tonight but
with the lack of moisture, still expecting a lack of clouds
tonight. Surface winds are expected to shift from SW to NW and
will be quite light across the interior, which will help the
interior radiatively cool more. Used ecs for low temperatures
tonight to depict a more vast range of lows and going with
relatively cooler guidance for interior locations. Lows forecast
range from the upper 30s to lower 50s.

For Tuesday, the NW flow will allow the coastal locations to be
just as warm and in some cases a little warmer as the interior
locations with that downslope component to the wind. Sunny skies
are expected with high pressure directly building into the
region. The center of the high passes nearby during Tuesday
afternoon. Used a blend of ecs and gmos for high temperatures,
ranging from the low to mid 60s for most places.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
A progressive amplified pattern will dominate this long term
timeframe as vigorous shortwave over british columbia province this
morning digs and tracks across the great lakes region to start this
time period (Tuesday night and Wednesday). Reasonable global model
agreement is noted in tracking this upper low across new england
Wednesday night through Thursday, with ridge building next weekend.

Larger trough over the western states then tracks across the rockies
toward the mid west by late next weekend.

At the surface, high pressure pushes east Tuesday night, giving way
to low pressure and associated cold front that moves across the
great lakes ahead of strengthening upper trough. A coastal low
develops over the carolinas, tracking off the mid atlantic coast by
Wednesday morning. This low deepens as it passes just south,
becoming dominate low as parent low moves across lake ontario
Wednesday night. Norlun trough extends NW from coastal low to
parent inland low Wednesday night early Thursday. This deepening
coastal low then tracks toward the canadian maritimes, with
positional and strength differences noted in the global model suite
late week. High pressure builds next weekend.

Rain will move in ahead of this potent system, with deep lift and
moisture available for moderate to possible heavy rain. A few
hundred joules of elevated CAPE could result in a rumble of thunder
or two. Timing of precipitation looks to be Wednesday morning,
through the afternoon, tapering off in the evening (west to east).

Significant rainfall is expected in a relatively short period of
time, so please see hydrology section for more on this potential
hazard.

A few lingering showers, mainly to the north, are possible
Wednesday night into Thursday in cyclonic flow.

Se winds will increase ahead of this system Wednesday, with strong
gusty winds continuing behind the system Wednesday night and
Thursday. Gusty winds linger into Friday before diminishing ahead of
the building high.

Temperatures near seasonal norms are expected Tuesday night and
Wednesday before falling below Thursday and Friday, in caa.

Temperatures will moderate next weekend thanks to building ridge.

Aviation 09z Monday through Friday
High pressure builds in today, then a cold front passes through
this evening.

Low endVFR to MVFR ceilings are moving through terminals early
this morning as an area of low pressure passes south of the
long island. Conditions will improve mid morning for the metro
terminals and late this morning for eastern terminals as the low
heads away from the area.

W winds this morning will shift to the SW at 5 to 10 kt this
afternoon.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts,
can be found at:
http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 4 mi72 min S 1.9 G 4.1 56°F 64°F1014.9 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 4 mi57 min SSE 3.9 G 5.8 58°F 32°F56°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 11 mi57 min SSE 5.8 G 7.8 58°F 55°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 19 mi72 min 59°F 64°F1014.7 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 23 mi72 min SSE 7 G 8 59°F 1014.4 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 27 mi72 min 57°F 64°F1014.6 hPa
MHRN6 28 mi72 min S 2.9 G 4.1
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 30 mi72 min ESE 6 G 8.9 58°F 62°F1014.6 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 32 mi52 min E 5.8 G 7.8 60°F 65°F3 ft1014.6 hPa57°F
44069 34 mi87 min E 5.8 G 7.8 58°F 58°F56°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 36 mi72 min NE 2.9 G 2.9 55°F 63°F1014.1 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 49 mi52 min NE 7.8 G 9.7 60°F 63°F3 ft1014.6 hPa (-0.9)

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY10 mi51 minSSE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy59°F54°F83%1014.5 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY12 mi51 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds56°F55°F100%1015.1 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY15 mi51 minVar 310.00 miOvercast59°F55°F87%1014.5 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY17 mi49 minSE 410.00 miMostly Cloudy57°F54°F90%1014.8 hPa
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY17 mi1.8 hrsN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy52°F50°F93%1014.3 hPa
Teterboro, Teterboro Airport, NJ19 mi51 minN 010.00 miOvercast59°F53°F81%1014.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLGA

Wind History from LGA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4N7N8NE6N44NE4N3E5NE7E6S8S8S8S8S5S6SW5S4S5SE5S4SE4S6
1 day agoN7NE6
G15
N6N8N6NE5NW6N5NW4CalmCalmCalmS4SW7W6W5W10W11NW14NW11NW12NW9NW8NW6
2 days ago--N12N13
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NE14NE15N12N9N7N7N8

Tide / Current Tables for Port Washington, Manhasset Bay, Long Island, New York
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:43 AM EDT     -0.72 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 03:36 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:52 AM EDT     0.97 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 07:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:34 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 09:32 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:01 PM EDT     -0.73 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 03:42 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:04 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:16 PM EDT     1.01 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 09:59 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.7-0.7-0.5-0.10.10.30.710.60.2-0.1-0.3-0.6-0.7-0.6-0.20.10.20.610.80.3-0-0.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.