Sunday, December15, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
East Norwich, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 4:28PM Sunday December 15, 2019 1:43 PM EST (18:43 UTC) Moonrise 9:07PMMoonset 11:14AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 938 Am Est Sun Dec 15 2019
.gale warning in effect until 7 pm est this evening...
Today..W winds around 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Tonight..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 35 kt early, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt, diminishing to around 5 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of snow in the afternoon.
Mon night..E winds around 5 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain, snow and freezing rain in the evening, then rain with snow likely with freezing rain after midnight.
Tue..NE winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Freezing rain in the morning. Rain.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 938 Am Est Sun Dec 15 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Strong low pressure departs to the north today, while high pressure builds in to the west of the area. High pressure moves over the the region tonight, slowly retreating to the north Monday into Monday night. A low pressure system will then affect the waters Monday afternoon through Tuesday. High pressure returns for Wednesday and Thursday, but with a cold front moving through Wednesday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near East Norwich, NY
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location: 40.85, -73.52     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 151503 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1003 AM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure builds in from the west today as low pressure continues to track well to the north. High pressure briefly builds over the region tonight, then drifts offshore Monday. A low pressure system impacts the region Monday through Tuesday, departing to the northeast Tuesday night. High pressure builds into the region on Wednesday and remains over the area through the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Forecast on track with just a few minor adjustments to reflect latest observations. With the cyclonic flow remaining across the northeast clouds have begun to move back into the western zones. So increased cloud cover through this morning, as drying should begin this afternoon with the ridge building. Also adjusted dew points and temperatures, which were running higher than forecast.

The deep upper closed low that affected to the region Saturday will continue to track through eastern Canada as the flow across the area becomes zonal. Snow streamers were coming off the eastern Great Lakes in the strong west flow. The flurries should remain west of the region, however, would not be too surprised if a few made it into the lower Hudson Valley. Meanwhile the next shortwave to affect the region will be amplifying into the intermountain southwest. With a zonal, progressive flow, this shortwave will quickly translate eastward. However, there remains uncertainty as to the timing of this system.

Meanwhile weak surface ridging builds into the area today as the developing surface low tracks through the southern plains and into the lower Mississippi Valley. With a strong pressure gradient between the departing low to the north and high pressure to the west, strong and gusty westerly winds are expected. These winds and gusts will diminish early this evening as the surface high builds into the area. The high will be over the area through tonight, with the center of the high shifting off the Mid Atlantic coast toward morning. The high will keep the frontal system suppressed to the south with precipitation remaining to the southwest of the area 12Z Monday.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY/. While the guidance has come into a little better agreement with the shortwave tracking toward the area, there still remains uncertainty with the track of the low. The latest trend has been a shift a little farther to the south. And later guidance may continue this trend or even shift the low back to the north. The uncertainty will have impacts to the timing and type of precipitation across the forecast area.

With the latest trends have held off the timing of the precipitation as the high shows weak signals of damming, keeping cold air across the northern tier. So, will have likely probabilities after 18Z and only across the far southern zones with low end chance probabilities reaching much of the area by later Monday afternoon.

With cold air in place precipitation will be in the form of light snow. And then with warmer air moving in along the coast, especially aloft, a mix of rain, snow, and sleet will be possible late day. There may even be pockets of light freezing rain across northeastern New Jersey and into northern portions of New York City.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. STORM SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

Timing and placement differences remain with the track of the low through Tuesday night with the GFS a little quicker and farther north than the ECMWF. Thus confidence is on the low end with precipitation types across the region. And the NAM was showing colder lower levels as a warm layer moves in aloft, with a strengthening warm frontal boundary. So, used a blend for precipitation types Monday night through Tuesday. With the possibility of colder surface air remaining Monday night into Tuesday, there may be more freezing rain closer to the coast than currently forecast. While inland may be predominately freezing rain.

The low will be tracking well east of the area Tuesday night with the precipitation quickly ending. Drying conditions are expected by later Tuesday night as the low deepens and accelerates northeast to eventually southeast of Nova Scotia by early Wednesday.

For the rest of the long term, high pressure starts to build back into the region on Wednesday and will remain over the area through the end of the week. Expect dry conditions with temperatures below normal. Low pressure may impact the area over the weekend.

AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Strong low pressure tracks north through eastern Canada today, with weak high pressure building into the region tonight. A weak area of low pressure approaches the region Monday.

VFR through Monday 12z.

Main concern will be gusty W winds, sustained 20-25ktG30-35kt today, with an isolated peak gusts to 40 kt possible. Winds and gusts gradually subside through the evening push, diminishing late tonight.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. Monday. MVFR/IFR conds in light snow/wintry mix becoming likely for NYC/MJ metro terminals in the afternoon. Monday night. IFR or lower likely. NYC metros and coastal terminals, wintry mix gradually changing to plain rain late. KEWR/KTEB/KBDR could see freezing rain linger into early Tue morning push. KHPN/KSWF wintry mix, including freezing rain. Tuesday. IFR or lower conds. Wintry mix, possibly changing back to all snow at KSWF before ending. Rain at NYC/NJ metro and coastal terminals, possibly changing to wintry mix before ending late. N gusts to 20kt developing Tue afternoon. Tuesday night. VFR. NW winds G20kt NYC metros/KISP mainly eve. Wednesday. VFR. NW winds G25kt mainly afternoon. Thursday. VFR.

MARINE. No changes to the winds and seas at this time.

Gale force wind gusts today, subsiding this evening, and falling below SCA by late tonight. Ocean seas will be a bit slower to respond with residual s/se swells, but should fall below SCA from w to e through Monday morning.

Sub-SCA condition expected through Tuesday morning, with SCA conditions becoming increasingly likely late Tuesday, and then likely all waters Tuesday Night through Thursday. Potential for a period of gale conditions on the ocean waters Wednesday Night with passage of an arctic front.

HYDROLOGY. Remaining flooding concerns are for the larger stem rivers in CT with a combination of the recent rainfall and melting snow to the north.

Another significant precipitation event is likely Monday through Tuesday, with liquid equivalent QPF of 0.5 to 1.25 inches possible. There is uncertainty in this amount given uncertainty in the track of the low and frontal positions.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still operating at reduced power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ335-338-345. Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ330-340-350- 353-355.

SYNOPSIS . 19 NEAR TERM . BC/19 SHORT TERM . 19 LONG TERM . JM/19 AVIATION . NV MARINE . NV HYDROLOGY . 19 EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 8 mi58 min WNW 21 G 31 45°F 2 ft31°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 11 mi43 min WNW 19 G 29 44°F 32°F30°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 13 mi55 min NNW 22 G 25 46°F 44°F1009.6 hPa
44069 25 mi73 min W 18 G 25 44°F 41°F35°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 28 mi55 min 46°F 44°F1009.8 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 29 mi61 min WNW 8 G 15 45°F 44°F1007 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 32 mi55 min WNW 29 G 40 46°F 1009.2 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 35 mi43 min W 23 G 31 48°F 1009.9 hPa (+1.3)34°F
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 36 mi55 min 46°F 45°F1010.1 hPa
MHRN6 37 mi55 min WNW 27 G 32
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 37 mi55 min WNW 29 G 37 46°F 44°F1010.2 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 44 mi55 min WNW 20 G 27 45°F 43°F1006.4 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 45 mi53 min W 27 G 33 48°F 51°F8 ft1009.1 hPa (+1.0)

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY10 mi50 minW 20 G 3010.00 miMostly Cloudy and Breezy49°F25°F39%1008.6 hPa
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY19 mi1.8 hrsNW 16 G 2210.00 miMostly Cloudy44°F28°F53%1007.8 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY19 mi52 minW 24 G 3210.00 miMostly Cloudy and Windy49°F28°F44%1009.6 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY20 mi52 minWNW 20 G 3510.00 miMostly Cloudy and Breezy48°F23°F37%1009.1 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY23 mi1.8 hrsW 13 G 2410.00 miMostly Cloudy48°F30°F50%1007.6 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY24 mi52 minW 11 G 3110.00 miMostly Cloudy47°F23°F39%1009.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFRG

Wind History from FRG (wind in knots)
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2 days agoN3CalmS5S6SE3E3CalmE3NE4NE3CalmNE6NE5NE6NE5NE4NE4E5CalmE3SE4SE7E6E6

Tide / Current Tables for Oyster Bay Harbor, Oyster Bay, Long Island, New York
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Oyster Bay Harbor
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:00 AM EST     7.33 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:11 AM EST     0.28 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:13 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 01:14 PM EST     8.16 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:26 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:48 PM EST     -0.39 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:06 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.87.36.85.53.72.10.90.30.623.95.97.48.17.96.64.72.71-0.1-0.40.424

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:49 AM EST     -0.74 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:23 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:13 AM EST     1.00 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 10:14 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 10:37 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 02:15 PM EST     -0.70 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:28 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 04:46 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:08 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:38 PM EST     0.97 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 10:56 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.4-0.7-0.7-0.6-0.20.20.30.610.80.3-0.1-0.3-0.5-0.7-0.6-0.30.10.30.50.90.90.5-0

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.