Saturday, July20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sea Cliff, NY

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:38AMSunset 8:23PM Saturday July 20, 2019 3:59 AM EDT (07:59 UTC) Moonrise 10:46PMMoonset 9:02AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 330 Am Edt Sat Jul 20 2019
Today..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers and tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Mon..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers and tstms likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the afternoon.
Mon night..E winds around 5 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers and tstms likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the morning.
Tue night..NW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..N winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..NW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 330 Am Edt Sat Jul 20 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Western atlantic high pressure stays in the region today into tonight. A cold front will be approaching from the north late tonight into Sunday. The front moves into the region late Sunday and south of long island Sunday night. However, low pressure will develop along this front slowing it down. The low and frontal boundary return northward into the region Monday into Tuesday before moving well east of the region Tuesday night. High pressure then returns for the middle of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sea Cliff, NY
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location: 40.86, -73.66     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 200546
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
146 am edt Sat jul 20 2019

Synopsis
High pressure remains as the dominant feature in the weather
pattern through this weekend. A cold front approaches late
Sunday and Sunday night, and moves across the region during
Monday. High pressure then returns for the middle of next week.

Near term until 6 am this morning
The threat for isolated showers and thunderstorms has ended.

Although moderate instability still exists (although waning)
with weak vort energy continuing to move through aloft; weak
capping, lack of surface focus, and lack of shear should
continue to limit convective development.

Otherwise, very warm and muggy conditions overnight, with
dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s. Overnight lows will be well
above normal with some record high minimum temperatures
possible.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Sunday
High pressure will be the dominant feature in the weather pattern
Saturday and Saturday night with only a diurnally-driven thermal
trough developing. Capping probably limits anything from developing
into showers over us but cannot completely rule out a shower or
thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening as convection could spill
in from the west. Will still opt for a dry forecast. Partly cloudy
conditions otherwise.

Mixing up to 850mb where forecast aftn temps are 21-22c along with a
boundary layer with relatively high moisture content (top of the
mixed layer dewpoints 15-19c) yields highs around 100 for the
typically warmest areas of NE nj and nyc, with mid and upper 90s for
most other locations.

With high dewpoints through the boundary layer, surface dewpoints may
have a tough time mixing out with daytime heating, particularly
across south-facing coastal sections where winds are expected to
become more SW rather than wsw in the afternoon. The combination of
surface temps and dewpoints should still produce heat indices of at
least 105 for a good portion of the forecast area. Spots that could
fall short of this are along the immediate south coasts of both li
and SE ct. Not enough confidence to drop the warning for these
areas, so will continue with an excessive heat warning for the
entire forecast area.

See the climate section below for records high temps and record high
minimum temperatures. Some records may be tied or broken.

There is a moderate rip current risk at the ocean beaches for
Saturday, with a low to moderate risk for Sunday.

Long term Sunday night through Friday
The record to near record warmth will last at least through Sunday,
with height falls starting to initiate late Sunday into Sunday night.

This scenario has been consistently demonstrated from run to run
within the global model operational suites. There have been some
slight timing differences at times with various runs of the
operational gem, but by in large there is very good consistently
with regard to the mass fields. Also the operational models for
the most part seem to be in step with the latest naefs ensemble
mean aloft.

A cold front will then approach the region Sunday night into Monday
from the great lakes, pushing across the region most likely on
Monday. This will break the high heat and humidity which will have
been in place throughout the weekend. Expect precipitation (showers
and thunderstorms) chances to increase from late Sunday and Sunday
night into Monday, with the best chances Monday afternoon and
evening. The guidance also indicates some potential for the region
to be in the right rear quadrant of the upper level jet which would
promote precipitation and thunderstorm chances. Late Monday night
into Tuesday is when the models begin to handle the details
differently and diverge a bit more in terms of the more derived
fields, and thus perhaps the sensible weather. Some guidance has the
front slowing down enough just offshore Monday night into Tuesday,
which would result in some additional lingering unsettled weather as
the front is advertised to be somewhat parallel to the upper
level flow. High pressure will gradually build into the area
from the west, with dry weather expected for the middle of the
week. Dewpoints should be markedly lower by early Tuesday, with
more comfortable conditions working in. However, questions
remain as to exactly how long clouds and any potentially
unsettled weather will linger for late Monday night and possibly
into a part of Tuesday.

Max temperatures in the long term will settle back closer to normal
by late Monday night into Tuesday, after near record and well above
average temperatures to begin the period.

Aviation 06z Saturday through Wednesday
Terminals will be situated between a frontal boundary across
the great lakes and high pressure over the western atlantic.

This will generally keep the areaVFR and under a SW flow this
weekend.

Sw winds will decrease and veer more to the W overnight, before
reverting back to the SW late this morning.VFR conds expected
except maybe close to sunrise at kgon, where brief MVFR vsby is
possible.

Outlook for 06z Sunday through Wednesday
Saturday night MainlyVFR.

Sunday through Tuesday Chance of showers and tstms starting
late Sunday afternoon and continuing through the rest of the
forecast period, with MVFR or lower possible at times.

Wednesday Vfr.

Marine
S-sw winds on the ocean waters may gust close to 25 kt on
Saturday aft eve, as SW winds pick up in the afternoon and
diminish in the evening. Seas should remain below 5 ft, but a
brief period of 5 ft seas will be possible this evening. Sub-
sca conditions are therefore expected to prevail through
Saturday night.

Sub-sca conditions will carry through Sunday and into early Monday.

By late Monday or Monday night seas will begin to build on the
ocean. SCA conditions are then anticipated for Monday night into
Tuesday on the ocean due to waves around 5 feet as a cold front
approaches and moves into the coastal waters by Tuesday.

Hydrology
No widespread hydrologic impacts are expected through the weekend.

There will be an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms into
Monday and Monday night. There is some potential for localized
flooding in association with any thunderstorms. Confidence remains
low at this time with respect to occurrence and location.

Climate
The following are records for this weekend:
record highest minimum temperatures for Saturday, july 20:
nyc: 82 in 2015
lga: 83 in 2015
jfk: 79 in 2015
ewr: 80 in 2015
isp: 78 in 2013
bdr: 79 in 2013
record high temperatures for Saturday, july 20:
nyc: 101 in 1980
lga: 101 in 1991
jfk: 96 in 2013 (also occurred in previous years)
ewr: 101 in 1980
isp: 97 in 1991
bdr: 95 in 1001
record highest minimum temperatures for Sunday, july 21:
nyc: 82 in 1980
lga: 83 in 1980
jfk: 79 in 2017
ewr: 81 in 1980
isp: 76 in 1980
bdr: 76 in 1994
record high temperatures for Sunday, july 21:
nyc: 104 in 1977
lga: 100 in 1991
jfk: 99 in 1991
ewr: 103 in 2011
isp: 101 in 1991
bdr: 98 in 1991

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) remains off
the air.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... Excessive heat warning from 6 am this morning to 8 pm edt
Sunday for ctz005>012.

Heat advisory until 6 am edt early this morning for ctz005>012.

Ny... Excessive heat warning from 6 am this morning to 8 pm edt
Sunday for nyz078>081-177-179.

Heat advisory until 6 am edt early this morning for nyz078>081-
177-179.

Excessive heat warning until 8 pm edt Sunday for nyz067>075-
176-178.

Nj... Excessive heat warning until 8 pm edt Sunday for njz002-004-
006-103>108.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jc je
near term... Jc nv
short term... Jc
long term... Je
aviation... Md goodman
marine... Jc je
hydrology... Jc je
climate...

equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44022 - Execution Rocks 4 mi74 min WSW 5.8 G 7.8 72°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 7 mi65 min WNW 5.1 G 6 79°F 70°F1011.2 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 8 mi59 min SW 7.8 G 9.7 78°F 73°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 22 mi65 min 84°F 73°F1010.7 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 26 mi65 min W 7 G 8.9 84°F 1010.6 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 30 mi65 min 83°F 77°F1010.8 hPa
MHRN6 31 mi65 min SW 7 G 9.9
44069 32 mi74 min W 9.7 G 14 82°F 81°F78°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 33 mi65 min W 4.1 G 6 81°F 71°F1009.1 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 33 mi65 min W 9.9 G 11 82°F 81°F1010.8 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 34 mi39 min SW 7.8 G 7.8 76°F 74°F1010.5 hPa74°F

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY13 mi68 minWNW 510.00 miA Few Clouds86°F71°F61%1010.3 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY15 mi68 minW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F79°F94%1010.8 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY16 mi66 minW 510.00 miFair81°F75°F82%1010.3 hPa
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY16 mi63 minW 610.00 miA Few Clouds80°F75°F85%1010 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY17 mi68 minWSW 410.00 miFair84°F73°F72%1010.7 hPa
Teterboro, Teterboro Airport, NJ21 mi68 minW 410.00 miFair83°F73°F74%1010.2 hPa

Wind History from (wind in knots)oops, file error: weather/buffer/KLGA≥os=goes16/neairportwind
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Last 24hr------------------------------------------------
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2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Glen Cove, Hempstead Harbor, Long Island Sound, New York
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Glen Cove
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Sat -- 01:54 AM EDT     7.68 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:38 AM EDT     0.66 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:02 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 02:23 PM EDT     7.38 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:24 PM EDT     1.07 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:46 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.17.47.77.46.64.82.71.20.70.71.22.756.77.37.36.85.53.51.81.11.11.52.7

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
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Sat -- 02:51 AM EDT     -0.65 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 05:33 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:02 AM EDT     0.92 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 09:02 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 11:36 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:11 PM EDT     -0.67 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 05:51 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:27 PM EDT     0.94 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 10:46 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.1-0.3-0.6-0.7-0.5-0.10.10.20.60.90.70.2-0.1-0.3-0.5-0.7-0.6-0.300.20.50.90.80.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.