Friday, November22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Oyster Bay, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 4:32PM Friday November 22, 2019 4:49 AM EST (09:49 UTC) Moonrise 2:50AMMoonset 3:33PM Illumination 23% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 344 Am Est Fri Nov 22 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt this afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Slight chance of showers late this morning. Showers likely this afternoon.
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the evening, then rain after midnight.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the afternoon.
Sun night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt in the evening. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the evening.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 344 Am Est Fri Nov 22 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front approaches this morning and crosses the waters this afternoon. Brief high pressure returns for Saturday. Low pressure impacts the waters late Saturday night through Sunday. High pressure returns for Monday and Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oyster Bay, NY
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location: 40.88, -73.53     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 220859 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 359 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2019

SYNOPSIS. Light to moderate rain expected this afternoon and evening as a cold front crosses the forecast area. Windy conditions tonight then relax by daybreak as a high pressure system build into the region. Next low pressure system brings moderate rain Saturday evening and all day Sunday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Shortwave trough extending south through the Ohio River Valley pivots across New York State today. This trough brings with it significant PVA and dynamically driven lift through the region which will act as the main lifting mechanism for precipitation this afternoon. Temperatures in the afternoon sill be relatively mild reaching the mid 50s before the expected rain. Precipitable water values prior to the cold front are around 0.60-0.90 inches which is slightly more than the 75% moving average according to the SPC sounding climatology. Meaning there is a fair amount of ambient moisture to generate light to moderate rainfall. Rainfall totals range from 0.10-0.25 inches with the larger amounts expected east of the NYC Metro. Model soundings show little to no CAPE over the area so as a result instances of lightning are not likely at this time.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. The cold front pushes through the forecast area by the early evening producing breezy conditions and dropping dewpoints into the low 20s with overnight low temperatures falling into the low 30s and upper 20s. The high pressure system and associated cold airmass shifts overhead as a mid-level ridge builds from the west. A chilly Saturday is still expected despite the clear skies with temperatures only reaching the mid 40s by the afternoon.

Towards the evening and overnight hours on Saturday a shortwave trough and deepening low pressure system near the Appalachian Mountains will have to be monitored for the next batch of impactful weather. Initially as the system nears the Lower Hudson Valley, precipitation falling through the residual cold airmass may be able to refreeze prior to reaching the surface. This is most likely in the northwestmost portion of Orange county late Saturday night into early Sunday morning with little to no accumulation of freezing rain or sleet expected. A steady cold rain is expected for the rest of the forecast area through the day. PWAT values around 1 inch will allow for ample rainfall Sunday. QPF totals between 1.00-1.50 inches with isolated higher amounts will be possible. This could lead to nuisance street flooding and ponding of water in poor drainage areas.

The aforementioned low pressure system exits to the northeast by the late evening allowing a stable dry airmass to enter the forecast area overnight.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Weak surface ridging builds in from high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico Monday, then pushes offshore on Tuesday.

A frontal system approaches for the middle of the week, lifting a warm front north of the area Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. The associated cold front quickly moves through Wednesday into Wednesday night as the associated low passes well north and east of the area, tracking over the eastern Great Lakes region then into southeastern Canada. Temperatures will be warm enough at this point for all rain everywhere.

AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. A cold front approaches this morning, and passes across the area this afternoon.

VFR conditions are expected this morning. Brief MVFR conditions are possible in showers, generally during the 16-20Z timeframe, west to east.

Thereafter, VFR again as skies clear.

Southwest winds increase this morning, and gusts become more frequent late this morning, 14-16Z. Winds veer to the west briefly, then west/northwest after 18-20Z. Gusts of 20-30 kt are expected late this afternoon, and gusts diminish some during the evening hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. Late tonight. VFR with diminishing NW winds. Saturday. VFR. Saturday night. IFR in rain. Chance of freezing rain at KSWF. Sunday. Rain with MVFR/IFR. NW winds gusting to around 20-30 kt in the afternoon and evening. Sunday night-Tuesday. VFR.

MARINE.

SW flow ahead of an approaching cold front continues to increase on the waters this morning. SCA conditions will develop through the morning. The cold front moves across the waters in the afternoon with winds becoming W-NW and should be well east by early evening. Gale force winds are likely in the afternoon and evening on the waters east of Fire Island Inlet, Eastern LI Bays, and Eastern LI Sound. An occasional gale gust cannot be ruled out west of Fire Island Inlet. Gale warnings and Small Craft Advisories are in effect. Ocean seas will also build to 5 to 8 ft, highest east of Moriches Inlet. Winds slowly decrease overnight from west to east as high pressure builds to the south and west. Winds should be below SCA levels early Saturday morning. Seas also subside below SCA levels through tonight.

Sub-SCA conditions will occur on Saturday with high pressure near the waters. These conditions should continue into Saturday night with intensifying low pressure approaching the waters. The low moves across the waters Sunday morning and early afternoon and then quickly north and east away from the New England coast Sunday evening. Winds and seas should remain below SCA levels in the morning, but increasing NW winds on the backside of the low should bring SCA winds on all waters with potential for gale gusts on the ocean. Seas will also build in the afternoon as the low passes east. Elevated seas are then possible due to lingering swell into Monday morning. Otherwise, sub-SCA conditions are likely with high pressure over the waters.

HYDROLOGY. No hydrological concerns are expected through Saturday. Liquid equivalent amounts of 1.00"-1.50" are forecast from late Saturday into late Sunday as an area of low pressure impacts the region. There is some uncertainty with the amounts depending on the track and intensity of the low.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Astronomical tides will be increasing late this weekend due to a new moon early next week. An intensifying, fast moving low pressure system will also move across the region on Saturday night into Sunday. The quick movement of the system should prevent significant coastal impacts. However, minor coastal flooding is possible with Sunday morning high tide across the south shore back bays and Sunday afternoon high tide across the Western Sound.

Minor flooding benchmarks may be reached early next due to the new moon.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is operating at reduced power until further notice.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Saturday for ANZ335-338- 345-355. Gale Warning until midnight EST tonight for ANZ330-340-350-353.

SYNOPSIS . DJ/16 NEAR TERM . DJ/16 SHORT TERM . DJ/16 LONG TERM . DJ/16 AVIATION . DS MARINE . DS HYDROLOGY . DJ/16 TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . DS EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 6 mi30 min SW 14 G 19 50°F 1 ft38°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 10 mi35 min SSW 12 G 16 49°F 32°F39°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 13 mi50 min WSW 9.9 G 13 48°F 49°F1012.5 hPa (-2.4)
44069 27 mi50 min SW 16 G 18 49°F 42°F42°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 27 mi56 min SW 11 G 15 49°F 47°F1011.1 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 28 mi50 min 47°F 50°F1012.5 hPa (-2.3)
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 32 mi50 min SW 7 G 12 48°F 1012 hPa (-2.6)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 36 mi20 min SSW 18 G 21 51°F 54°F1012.2 hPa41°F
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 37 mi50 min 47°F 50°F1012.4 hPa (-2.2)
MHRN6 37 mi50 min SSW 7 G 9.9
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 38 mi50 min SSW 8 G 9.9 47°F 45°F1012.4 hPa (-2.7)
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 43 mi50 min SW 15 G 17 49°F 46°F1011.1 hPa (-2.8)
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 48 mi60 min SW 21 G 25 55°F 55°F6 ft1012.5 hPa (-2.6)

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY12 mi57 minSW 1010.00 miOvercast50°F37°F61%1012.6 hPa
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY17 mi1.9 hrsS 610.00 miMostly Cloudy47°F33°F59%1012.6 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY20 mi59 minSSW 1210.00 miOvercast48°F39°F71%1012.9 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY20 mi59 minSSW 910.00 miOvercast49°F34°F56%1011.7 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY23 mi1.9 hrsSSW 1010.00 miOvercast50°F39°F66%1013.3 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY24 mi2 hrsWSW 510.00 miOvercast49°F34°F56%1012.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFRG

Wind History from FRG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5NW4NW5NW3N8NW8N9N6NW6NW7NW5NW5W4W3SW5S6SW6SW7SW8SW11SW11SW9SW12
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2 days agoW4W3CalmCalmCalmNW4NW5W9N7N7NW6NW7N8N5N4N3NW4NW4N3N4N8N7N5N6

Tide / Current Tables for Oyster Bay Harbor, Oyster Bay, Long Island, New York
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Oyster Bay Harbor
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:00 AM EST     0.18 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:50 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:49 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:08 AM EST     7.85 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:37 PM EST     0.04 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:33 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:30 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:37 PM EST     7.47 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.20.72.13.95.77.27.87.56.34.62.91.30.20.112.64.56.27.37.46.65.13.4

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:27 AM EST     0.97 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 01:51 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:18 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:42 AM EST     -0.76 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 10:42 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:54 PM EST     1.06 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 02:34 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:32 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:07 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 08:13 PM EST     -0.76 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 11:25 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.90.90.40.1-0.2-0.4-0.7-0.7-0.5-0.20.10.30.81.10.70.30-0.2-0.6-0.8-0.7-0.3-0.1

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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