Saturday, August15, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Nissequogue, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:02AMSunset 7:52PM Saturday August 15, 2020 3:49 AM EDT (07:49 UTC) Moonrise 2:02AMMoonset 5:37PM Illumination 13% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 335 Am Edt Sat Aug 15 2020
Today..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Chance of showers after midnight.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers.
Sun night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers in the evening.
Mon..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..SW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Tue..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..W winds around 5 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming S around 5 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 335 Am Edt Sat Aug 15 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure passes southeast of long island tonight as high pressure builds into new england through Saturday. The high retreats towards the canadian maritimes on Sunday as another low pressure approaches from the middle atlantic coast. This low passes offshore on Monday. A cold front follows Monday night into Tuesday with high pressure by Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Nissequogue, NY
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location: 40.89, -73.21     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 150554 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 154 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure passes to the south and east tonight. High pressure continues to build over New England through Saturday, then retreats towards the Canadian Maritimes on Sunday. Another low pressure may approach from the south on Sunday, passing offshore on Monday. A cold front follows Monday night into Tuesday with high pressure returning for the middle of the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/. Forecast is on track with only minor changes made.

Low pressure passes about 175 miles southeast of Montauk Point tonight as high pressure continues building across New England. An easterly flow will persist between these two systems, increasing near the coast early Saturday morning as the low passes. The easterly flow and subsidence from the high will keep conditions dry, with just some high clouds streaming overhead at times. Mostly clear skies are forecast tonight with lows ranging from the lower to middle 60s for most spots with around 70 degrees in the NYC metro.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/. The center of the high will be situated over the Canadian Maritimes on Saturday, ridging down across New England. The jet stream pattern will be characterized by a split flow, with an omega like blocking ridge over the northeast and southeast Canada. A shortwave trough will be located over the Southern Appalachians. This pattern will continue to keep a front nearly stationary well to our south. Dry conditions will persist on Saturday with just a few to scattered clouds for much of the day. Highs on Saturday will reach the lower 80s for most locations. It will be breezy, especially across Long Island and southeast Connecticut, with E-NE sustained winds 15-20 mph with gusts 25 to 30 mph. Winds and gusts should be weaker further inland where the pressure gradient will be less.

Winds diminish Saturday night and clouds should increase as the shortwave trough approaches. Models have continued to indicate another low pressure developing along the front to our south. The GFS is still the most aggressive with tracking this feature further north, bringing a chance of widespread rain to at least the southern half of the area late Saturday night. This solution is currently considered an outlier due to the likelihood of convective feedback forcing the low further north under a large QPF max. Have followed a general consensus of the other models (ECMWF, CMC, NAM), which keep this wave along the Carolina coast early Sunday morning. The surface high to our north continues to ridge down across New England keeping much of the precip with this low to our south.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents on Saturday.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. There is still some model disagreement on the shortwave trough expected to exit the DelMarVa region Sunday morning. The system could potentially be a potent rain producer for Sunday if there is any northward drift. However if the system remains or continues to trend south of Long Island, Sunday could remain rain free. Regardless cloudy skies and breezy northeast winds should keep temperatures suppressed in the upper 70s during the day.

For most of the week a quasi stationary long wave trough over eastern Canada is the dominate feature. As the trough pivots through New England early next week, the dynamic lift induced by the positive vorticity advection could initiate precipitation locally. In addition the trailing weak cold front extending through New York late Monday may also promote showers and thunderstorms. Precipitable water values 1.2 to 1.3 inches mean that showers forming in this environment should be light to moderate.

A brief reprieve from the rain mid week is not out of the question as high builds into the region behind the cold front. However additional showers are still possible owing to another shortwave impulse riding through the longwave flow. Afternoon highs mid week should remain in the low 80s for areas not impacted by rain. Following this shortwave, ridging and dry air return to the forecast area. Temperatures Friday could as a result be slightly higher than the previous days reaching the upper 80s and low 90s.

There is a high risk of rip currents on Sunday.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. High pressure remains centered to the northeast today, then low pressure approaches from the south late tonight.

VFR through this evening with MVFR conds developing towards daybreak Sunday in rain.

NE winds increase and veer E this afternoon around 15G20kt. Highest winds generally for the coastal terminals. Winds then back towards NE tonight and diminish to around 10kt.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. Saturday night. MVFR with rain developing towards sunrise. Sunday. MVFR with rain. Chc IFR. NE gusts around 20kt. Monday. VFR. Chc late day/nighttime MVFR in shra/tstm. Tuesday. Early MVFR/shra possible, otherwise VFR. Wednesday. VFR AM, CHC shra/MVFR PM.

MARINE. Increasing E-NE flow will bring conditions on the ocean waters to SCA levels tonight through Saturday night. This is as low pressure passes to the south and east, and high pressure builds to the north. Wind gusts should peak at 30 kt E of Fire Island Inlet during the day on Saturday. Winds diminish a bit Saturday night as the low passes well offshore. However, ocean seas will build tonight to 5-6 ft, then 6-7 ft on Saturday. These seas will linger through Saturday night. No changes have been made to the SCA on the ocean.

Wind gusts on Saturday on the LI Bays and Eastern Long Island Sound will also reach 25 kt. Have therefore issued a SCA advisory for these waters from 10z to 22z.

Northeast winds 17-19 kt with gusts up to 23 kt are possible Sunday owing to an approaching low pressure system from the south. Ocean waves may rise to 5 to 6 feet through Monday. Once the system exits early Tuesday sub SCA conditions with light west winds 5-10 kt are expected. Winds shift south by the middle of the week as a week low passes to the north. Light north winds 5-10 kt are again possible late this week.

HYDROLOGY. No hydrologic impacts are expected through Saturday night.

Guidances shows a low probability high impact rain evening possible Sunday. If the DelMarVa low passes over Long Island, QPF values between 1 to 2 inches with isolated higher amounts are not out of the question. This would result in nuisance to minor flooding primarily in urban and other poor drainage areas.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Persistent easterly flow through the weekend may bring tide levels close to minor flooding benchmarks across the vulnerable south shore back bay locations. This will be during the evening high tides, with the higher chance of occurrence on Sunday evening. Levels may approach minor benchmarks Saturday evening, but should fall just short.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ330-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.

SYNOPSIS . DJ/DS NEAR TERM . JP/DS SHORT TERM . DS LONG TERM . DJ AVIATION . JC MARINE . DJ/DS HYDROLOGY . DJ/DS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44069 15 mi50 min N 9.7 G 12 73°F 63°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 20 mi50 min NNE 9.7 G 12 75°F 62°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 20 mi50 min N 4.1 G 5.1 70°F 77°F1014.6 hPa (-0.3)
44022 - Execution Rocks 27 mi35 min NNE 9.7 G 14 75°F 65°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 30 mi50 min E 5.1 G 8 73°F 1015.7 hPa (-0.3)
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 32 mi50 min ENE 1.9 G 7 71°F 78°F1014.3 hPa (-0.5)
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 44 mi30 min NNE 14 G 16 76°F1013.6 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 44 mi30 min NNE 9.7 G 12 74°F1013.9 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 45 mi50 min 77°F 77°F1015.2 hPa (-0.3)
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 48 mi50 min N 5.1 G 6 76°F 1014.9 hPa (-0.3)

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY9 mi54 minN 710.00 miFair70°F62°F76%1014.3 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY15 mi57 minNNE 710.00 miFair71°F64°F79%1014.7 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY19 mi54 minN 310.00 miFair68°F59°F73%1014.5 hPa
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT20 mi58 minN 610.00 miFair71°F55°F59%1015 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KISP

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE5NE4NE3N7NE9NE8E6NE10E11E9E10E13E11E13E7E7E6E5E4N3NE5NE5N6N7
1 day agoCalmW3CalmCalmE3SE4SE5SE5S6Calm--NE6E5N6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--N5NE6
2 days agoSW6SW5N8S6S63S3S35SE4S6S7S7S7SW5SW4SW5S5S7S5SW3CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Nissequogue River entrance, Long Island Sound, New York
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Nissequogue River entrance
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:02 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:44 AM EDT     0.89 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:48 AM EDT     6.54 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:54 PM EDT     1.25 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:37 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:05 PM EDT     7.60 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.321.10.91.52.74.15.46.36.564.93.62.41.61.31.834.567.17.67.26.1

Tide / Current Tables for Northport, Northport Bay, Long Island Sound, New York
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Northport
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:02 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:55 AM EDT     0.90 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:53 AM EDT     6.82 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:05 PM EDT     1.28 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:37 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:11 PM EDT     7.93 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.62.31.30.91.42.64.15.56.56.86.35.23.92.71.71.31.62.84.467.37.97.66.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.