Friday, December13, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mill Neck, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 4:28PM Friday December 13, 2019 2:17 AM EST (07:17 UTC) Moonrise 6:57PMMoonset 9:27AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1219 Am Est Fri Dec 13 2019
Overnight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of drizzle in the morning, then chance of rain in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Chance of showers in the evening.
Sun..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of snow and rain in the evening, then rain and snow likely after midnight.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Rain likely.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of rain in the evening.
ANZ300 1219 Am Est Fri Dec 13 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure continues to move father offshore overnight. Low pressure approaches from the south Friday and passes through on Saturday. High pressure builds in Sunday into Monday. Another storm then impacts the area for late Monday night into much of Tuesday. High pressure then builds in Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mill Neck, NY
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location: 40.89, -73.55     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 130525 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1225 AM EST Fri Dec 13 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure continues to move farther offshore overnight. Low pressure approaches from the south Friday and passes through on Saturday. High pressure builds in Sunday into Monday. Another storm then impacts the area for late Monday night into much of Tuesday. High pressure then builds in Wednesday through Friday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/. Light winds and radiational cooling the first half of the night has allowed for temperatures outside of the NYC metro to drop well into the 20s. For most locations, these readings will be close to the overnight lows. A slightly increasing SE flow, and increasing cloud cover, will allow temperatures to rise overnight, with of the night with coastal locations above freezing by 7 am.

There is always a concern for black ice formation with light return flow events with sub-freezing ground temps and increasing low-level moisture. Both MOS guidance and latest HiRes models show enough of a dewpoint depression that this should not be a factor. This though will have to be closely watched.

Low clouds will be on the increase overnight as southerly winds increase moisture beneath an inversion around 900 mb.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/. Digging upper trough will result in sfc low development over the SE states. The trough will then steer this low up the mid Atlantic Friday night, passing somewhere nearby on Saturday. A coastal front also develops, approaches Friday night, and passes across the coastal plain Saturday.

With increasing low level moisture, and weak isentropic and topography driven lift, light rain or drizzle should develop over parts of the area Friday morning, and will become more widespread later in the day as overall lift increases with the approaching trough, and sfc front. Careful analysis of all available data, including high resolution model data shows chilly temps rising through the day, with some interior locations in the lower Hudson Valley, and interior southern CT possibly cold enough for some fzdz in the morning. However, all of this guidance shows warming sfc temps above freezing, even where some damming occurs across the CT Valley Friday afternoon. Once the bulk of the rain moves in late day/Friday night, all rain is expected. The widespread rain will taper off and lower in coverage during the day Saturday as best lift moves northeast.

Temps warm through the day Friday, and remain mild or even rise more Friday night as the front approaches.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. To begin the long term period the upper level trough axis will swing through with good global model consensus with the time around 6z Sunday. Look for more distinct clearing to take place around or just after 6z from west to east across the region as cold and dry advection takes places. With a colder dome aloft approaching into late Saturday night and especially on Sunday look for lapse rates to steepen. Mixing will increase, but not sure how much above 5 kft based on BUFKIT forecast soundings. It may not matter all that much as even 2 to 3 kft winds will be rather strong out of the west and northwest. So widespread 30 to 35 kt gusts seem likely, especially towards Sunday morning. Therefore Sunday will feature gusty winds with temperatures slightly cooler, but still actually above normal. The more noticeable cold air will arrive into Monday morning as temperatures return closer to normal levels and will actually most likely be a touch below normal into Monday.

The next system will then quickly approach for Monday evening and Monday night and impact the region through most of Tuesday. Another fairly quick moving shortwave in the Pacific branch of the jet stream will approach from the west. The global guidance has differences basically with how much ridging gets into the area from the SW Atlantic with the GFS based guidance more aggressive with this ridging along and just off the eastern seaboard. The ECMWF and GEM are less amplified with the downstream ridging which will factor into p-type for the beginning of this next system. There may be enough evaporating cooling at the onset to even have the coast begin briefly as mostly snow. A warm tongue will rush in quickly at the mid levels and even at the surface later Monday night into Tuesday morning. So went with a general snow to mix, or snow to mix to rain north and west, with a brief snow or snow rain mix changing to rain for the city and the coast. NW sections may even end as some snow showers as the system pulls away late Tuesday into Tuesday evening. It does not look like a major event, but with ptype issues for at least northwestern sections this system will have to watched over subsequent forecast cycles because a track further south and east would introduce more mixed ptype for a longer period of time further south and east. For now the feeling is that at least enough warming will take place, even for most northwestern sections for the majority of the precip to be in the liquid form.

Clearing may then be a bit slow during Tuesday night, with more in the way of clearing after the upper level trough axis swings through during the day on Wednesday. High pressure will begin to build in later Wednesday and into the latter part of the week. This period will feature dry and colder weather. The source region for high pressure later next week will be from a colder source region, therefore temperatures during late next week will be noticeably colder as temperatures fall below normal.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. High pressure will continue to retreat offshore overnight, while an area of low pressure works up the eastern seaboard on Friday.

VFR to start tonight with MVFR ceilings developing late across the NYC and Lower Hudson Valley terminals. To the east, VFR conditions may hold on through mid to late morning Friday. Conditions will then gradually deteriorate to IFR with increasing chances of rain from late afternoon into early evening. There is a fair amount of uncertainty in the timing of the category changes Friday into Friday night. Preference at this time was to take a middle road approach with the guidance.

Note if precip starts early enough, there could be some light freezing rain or drizzle towards KHPN and KSWF but probabilities for this are too low so this is not in TAFs.

Light E/SE winds tonight will gradually back through the day at 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt at the coastal terminals in the evening. LLWS possible late afternoon/night eastern terminals.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. Friday night. Mainly IFR in rain. LLWS possible. Saturday. IFR in rain. LLWS possible early. Saturday Night. Scattered showers, mainly early. Improving to VFR with W winds increasing to 10 to 15kt G20-30kt. Sunday. VFR. West winds 10-20kt gusts 25-35kt. Sunday night-Monday. VFR. Some west wind gusts to 20 kt Sunday night. Monday night-Tuesday. MVFR to IFR possible. Chance of snow for inland terminals changing to a wintry mix and then to rain. Chance of mainly rain for coastal terminals, with a period of snow or a wintry mix at the start early Monday night.

MARINE. No changes to winds and seas at this time.

High pressure builds farther offshore overnight with a gradually strengthening SE flow. The pressure gradient tightens as the low moves east and low pressure approaches Friday and Friday night. SCA winds are possible later Friday across the ocean waters, with gusty easterly winds Friday night ahead of a coastal front and low pressure. Will issue SCA for only the ocean waters at this time for late Friday and through Friday night. Seas build to 5 ft or greater as well during this time frame. Rough seas continue Saturday as the low and front pass north.

Small craft conditions will develop for the non-ocean coastal waters during Saturday night with seas already elevated out on the ocean. Small Craft conditions are expected across all the waters by late Saturday night, with the potential for gale force gusts developing out on the ocean waters, especially the eastern coastal waters. The strengthening winds will be due to an intensifying pressure gradient on the back side of departing low pressure and building high pressure off to the west. On Sunday gale force gusts are looking more likely for all of the ocean waters, with small craft conditions for the remaining coastal waters. The winds will then diminish into Sunday night along with high seas out on the ocean starting to come down. By Monday seas and winds should diminish enough that sub SCA conditions will prevail. By late Monday night seas will begin to build out on the ocean waters, with small craft conditions likely out on the ocean with small craft wind gusts. Seas will climb to high levels out on the ocean, especially for the eastern ocean waters late Monday night into Tuesday.

HYDROLOGY. 1.00 to 1.50 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts are anticipated from late Friday through Saturday. Minor nuisance flooding will be possible with this event, especially Friday night when the bulk of the rain falls.

No hydrologic impacts in the long term period.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. There will be a chance of coastal flooding with the high tide cycle during Saturday morning (departures of 1 to 2 ft are needed to reach minor benchmarks). This will be due to onshore winds with an approaching storm combined with relatively high astronomical tides due to a nearly full moon. Minor coastal flooding will be possible primarily along the south shore back bays of Long Island, where even moderate coastal flooding is a possibility at least along the Nassau County bays. Minor flooding will also be possible along lower NY Harbor and parts of Western Long Island Sound. Confidence remains rather low on details due to possible shifts in storm track and/or timing.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still operating at reduced power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ350-353-355.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 5 mi33 min E 9.7 G 12 36°F 27°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 9 mi18 min NNE 3.9 G 5.8 34°F 32°F28°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 13 mi48 min Calm G 1 33°F 44°F1035.9 hPa
44069 28 mi48 min N 7.8 G 12 32°F 38°F26°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 28 mi48 min 35°F 44°F1035.4 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 28 mi54 min N 1.9 G 2.9 28°F 44°F1035.8 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 32 mi48 min NW 4.1 G 4.1 35°F 1035.2 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 36 mi48 min 33°F 44°F1035.2 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 37 mi28 min S 12 G 14 43°F 2 ft1035.1 hPa31°F
MHRN6 37 mi48 min NNE 2.9 G 4.1
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 38 mi48 min NNE 1.9 G 2.9 35°F 41°F1035.3 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 44 mi48 min NE 4.1 G 6 28°F 42°F1036.1 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 49 mi28 min SSE 14 G 18 45°F 50°F2 ft1034.7 hPa (-3.4)

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY13 mi25 minNE 510.00 miPartly Cloudy30°F21°F72%1035.4 hPa
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY16 mi82 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy27°F19°F75%1036.1 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY19 mi27 minNNE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy34°F24°F67%1035.1 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY20 mi27 minNNE 510.00 miOvercast33°F26°F75%1035.4 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY23 mi27 minNNE 410.00 miFair34°F24°F67%1034.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFRG

Wind History from FRG (wind in knots)
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NW9NW8NW8NW8N8NE9NW6NE6N3CalmS5S6SE3E3CalmE3NE4NE3CalmNE6NE5
1 day agoNW7N8N7N10N10N6NE4N7NE5N4CalmSW6W6SW6SW9W8W8W11W12
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Tide / Current Tables for Bayville Bridge, Oyster Bay, Long Island, New York
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Bayville Bridge
Click for Map
Fri -- 05:45 AM EST     0.23 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:27 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 11:46 AM EST     8.50 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:26 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:56 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:22 PM EST     -0.52 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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7.36.44.831.50.50.31.12.956.98.28.57.763.91.90.4-0.4-0.312.94.96.5

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:16 AM EST     -0.74 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 02:53 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:35 AM EST     0.99 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:27 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 09:01 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 12:38 PM EST     -0.73 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 03:11 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:27 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:57 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:58 PM EST     1.01 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 09:23 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.7-0.7-0.300.20.50.90.90.50-0.2-0.5-0.7-0.7-0.5-0.10.20.40.710.70.2-0.2-0.4

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.