Thursday, July18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Larchmont, NY

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:37AMSunset 8:25PM Thursday July 18, 2019 4:42 AM EDT (08:42 UTC) Moonrise 9:47PMMoonset 7:05AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 344 Am Edt Thu Jul 18 2019
Today..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely until late afternoon. Isolated tstms late this morning and afternoon. Chance of showers late.
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the evening.
Fri..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..NW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..NW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 344 Am Edt Thu Jul 18 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Weak low pressure passes through the forecast waters today as a back door cold front moves into the area. The front becomes nearly stationary late today into tonight as another wave of low pressure tracks along the front. High pressure builds back into the area and will remain centered over the southeastern states into the weekend. A cold front approaches Monday and moves through Monday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Larchmont, NY
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location: 40.89, -73.75     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 180710
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
310 am edt Thu jul 18 2019

Synopsis
A cold front and the remnant low of barry will slowly move
through the region overnight and Thursday. The cold front then
moves through late Thursday. A warm front will move through
Friday night. Bermuda high pressure will be in place for the
weekend. A cold front approaches Monday and moves through Monday
night. High pressure returns for Tuesday.

Near term until 6 am this morning
Heavy rain has moved out of the region, and the threat of flash
flooding has ended. The flash flood watch has been cancelled.

Showers will continue overnight as a weak shortwave and remnant
low of barry continue to slowly move east in a broad upper
difluent flow.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Friday
The remnants of barry will be slow to move east of the region,
with the upper trough still expected to be over the area early
in the morning, and the attendant surface low roughly near
montauk. Additional occasional thunderstorms and moderate to
heavy rain will be possible as the system moves through. To the
north, confluent flow aloft will allow high pressure to build
across new england, with a back door cold front moving into
eastern connecticut and long island. Although temperatures will
be cooler across all areas in general owing to cloud cover and
the system gradually moving east, the aforementioned areas will
see the largest temperature decrease relative to Wednesday.

Highs will range from the mid 70s across eastern areas to the
mid 80s across the interior, with only a slight decrease in dew
points. However, heat indices will likely not exceed 95 degrees
for most areas.

Low pressure then finally passes to the east Thursday night, for
a quick decrease in temperatures and humidity before the more
significant heat event of the late week and weekend. Overnight
lows will range from the mid 60s across interior connecticut to
mid 70s in urban areas. Upper 60s to lower 70s will prevail
elsewhere.

There is a low rip current risk at the ocean beaches for
Thursday.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
The main concern for this period will be the high heat and humidity
that is expected to impact the area from Friday through Sunday
thanks to a bermuda high over the northern atlantic. 850 hpa
temperature anomalies of +2-+3c over the great lakes region will
move over the area from Friday through Sunday. 500 hpa heights over
5900 m also noted in guidance. This is in line with climatology for
a widespread heat wave to impact the forecast area from Friday
through Sunday. Much of the guidance suggests highs well into the
the 90s during this time frame, with dew points well into the 70s.

This translates to heat index values of 105 to 110 for much of NE nj
on Friday, and up to 112 for the much of the forecast area on
Saturday, except for the twin forks of long island. Though, 95 to 99
is possible for the twin forks for Saturday. Therefore, have issued
an excessive heat watch for NE nj for Friday, and for the rest of
the tri-state (except twin forks) for Saturday. There is the
possibility this continues into Sunday, however there is less
certainty with heat index values this day, though heat advisory is
likely for the entire area (including the twin forks as this would
be the 2nd day of 95-99 for this area). Though there is uncertainty
with dew points during this time frame, even if dew points are a few
degrees lower than forecast, heat index values should still be
around 105 for a good portion of the area.

As for precipitation, thermal troughs developing will allow for
shower and thunderstorms for Saturday and Sunday. As for now,
nothing indicating a widespread severe event in the long term.

Chances increase Sunday night into Monday, with best chances for
rain Monday afternoon as a cold front approaches. The front looks to
move through late Monday into Monday night, with high pressure for
Tuesday.

Temperatures will be cooler for Monday thanks to increase
cloudiness, though humidity levels will still be high. More
tolerable conditions are expected for Tuesday.

Aviation 07z Thursday through Monday
Weak low pressure moves into the region tonight, with a
backdoor cold front moving into the region this afternoon.

Widespread MVFR to ifr conditions appear to be developing as
expected early this morning. Sct showers also redeveloping over
se pa and northern nj a few hours earlier than guidance had
been indicating. These conds are expected to gradually improve
to MVFR and possibly even a period ofVFR this afternoon. A
return to MVFR ifr conditions expected this evening. Increasing
chance for showers and isolated tstms this morning, continuing
through this afternoon for nyc nj terminals.

Weak waves of low pres riding along the approaching from will
result in a tough wind forecast today. Light and vrb to start
should give way to a light (less than 10 kt) e-ne flow later
this morning and aftn. There is the potential for winds to veer
to the SE in the afternoon for nyc nj terminals.

Outlook for 06z Friday through Monday
Tonight Showers ending, with MVFR ifr CIGS likely.

Friday through Sunday Vfr. Iso shra tstms possible Sunday
and Monday.

Marine
A relatively weak pressure gradient will be across the forecast
waters through the next 5 days with winds and seas remaining
below SCA levels through the forecast period.

Hydrology
Any slow moving tstms on Thu could produce a localized flash
flood threat.

Climate
The following are records for this weekend:
record highest minimum temperatures for Saturday, july 20:
nyc: 82 in 2015
lga: 83 in 2015
jfk: 79 in 2015
ewr: 80 in 2015
isp: 78 in 2013
bdr: 79 in 2013
record high temperatures for Saturday, july 20:
nyc: 101 in 1980
lga: 101 in 1991
jfk: 96 in 2013 (also occurred in previous years)
ewr: 101 in 1980
isp: 97 in 1991
bdr: 95 in 1001
record highest minimum temperatures for Sunday, july 21:
nyc: 82 in 1980
lga: 83 in 1980
jfk: 79 in 2017
ewr: 81 in 1980
isp: 76 in 1980
bdr: 76 in 1994
record high temperatures for Sunday, july 21:
nyc: 104 in 1977
lga: 100 in 1991
jfk: 99 in 1991
ewr: 103 in 2011
isp: 101 in 1991
bdr: 98 in 1991

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) remains off
the air.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... Excessive heat watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
evening for ctz005>012.

Ny... Excessive heat watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday
evening for nyz067>075-176-178.

Excessive heat watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
evening for nyz078-080-177-179.

Nj... Excessive heat watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday
evening for njz002-004-006-103>108.

Marine... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44022 - Execution Rocks 1 mi57 min SSE 3.9 G 5.8 73°F 70°F72°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 6 mi54 min SW 12 G 14 69°F1012.9 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 10 mi57 min SSE 1.9 G 3.9 72°F 72°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 19 mi54 min 74°F 73°F1012.4 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 23 mi54 min SSW 2.9 G 5.1 75°F 1012.3 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 27 mi60 min 75°F 77°F1012.3 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 32 mi54 min SSW 6 G 7 76°F 81°F1012.1 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 36 mi42 min SSW 16 G 19 77°F 76°F1011.7 hPa (+0.0)73°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 36 mi60 min SW 5.1 G 6 73°F 72°F1012 hPa
44069 38 mi72 min SSW 7.8 G 9.7 74°F 82°F72°F

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY10 mi51 minSSW 810.00 miOvercast76°F72°F88%1012.1 hPa
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY13 mi1.8 hrsN 09.00 miMostly Cloudy72°F71°F97%1011.8 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY14 mi51 minVar 56.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist74°F73°F97%1012.2 hPa
Teterboro, Teterboro Airport, NJ16 mi51 minS 36.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist76°F73°F91%1011.7 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY16 mi51 minS 97.00 miLight Rain74°F73°F100%1012.6 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY21 mi49 minSW 86.00 miRain Fog/Mist74°F72°F94%1012.7 hPa

Wind History from LGA (wind in knots)
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2 days agoN5N6NE63NE4NE5NE5W8NW5NW8SW8
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Tide / Current Tables for Execution Rocks, Long Island Sound, New York
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Execution Rocks
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:13 AM EDT     7.99 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:05 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:45 AM EDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:42 PM EDT     7.43 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:45 PM EDT     0.78 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:46 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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7.687.86.54.32.210.30.113.15.36.77.37.46.74.82.71.40.90.81.43.25.4

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:21 AM EDT     -0.70 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:31 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:05 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:26 AM EDT     0.97 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 10:32 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:43 PM EDT     -0.71 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:50 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:50 PM EDT     0.97 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:46 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:54 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.5-0.7-0.6-0.3-0.10.10.50.90.90.40.1-0.1-0.4-0.6-0.7-0.5-0.200.30.810.60.2-0

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.