Monday, December9, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Cove Neck, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 4:27PM Monday December 9, 2019 4:38 AM EST (09:38 UTC) Moonrise 4:04PMMoonset 5:12AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 952 Pm Est Sun Dec 8 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from Monday afternoon through late Monday night...
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain after midnight. Rain likely late.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Tue night..NW winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Rain likely in the evening, then rain and snow likely after midnight. Vsby less than 1 nm after midnight.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Snow likely, mainly in the morning. Vsby less than 1 nm, increasing to 1 to 3 nm in the afternoon.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Thu night..NE winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 952 Pm Est Sun Dec 8 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A warm front will approach the waters tonight into Monday, and lift north Monday night. A cold front will move through late Tuesday, slowly passing east Tuesday night into Wednesday. Arctic high pressure will then follow later in the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cove Neck, NY
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location: 40.9, -73.49     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 090723 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 223 AM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

SYNOPSIS. An approaching warm front will lift to the north Monday night. A cold front will then approach on Tuesday and slowly pass across from Tuesday night into Wednesday. Arctic high pressure will then follow later in the week before another potential storm system arrives next weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/. Light precip has broken out ahead of schedule, especially across interior southern CT where temps were still below freezing in spots. From ASOS obs and model fcst thermal profiles some spotty light freezing rain/sleet occurring, and issued SPS for the far northern CT zones. May still yet have to watch the valleys or Orange County for the same if the precip shield to the south expands NW from its current location over NE/central NJ.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/. Warm advection light to moderate rain will continue developing and spreading north through the morning hours. The rain may briefly taper off as the warm front draws near the local area late morning or early afternoon. The 12z model suite is general agreement with this scenario. Large scale forcing increases in the afternoon and evening as parent low pressure and upper level trough move across the Great Lakes. A strong subtropical upper level jet stream will ride around the base of the upper trough and nose towards the northeast Monday afternoon and evening. Upper level divergence increases ahead of this jet and should combine with low level warm advection and shortwave energy to provide widespread rain in the afternoon and evening. The rain could be moderate to locally heavy at times.

The jet dynamics will shift north of the area Monday night. The warm front should also lift north as the parent low pressure moves from the Great Lakes to southeast Canada. Rain will taper off from southwest to northeast around or just after midnight. Deep moisture and stronger forcing for ascent shift to the north and east after midnight with the rain tapering off from southwest to northeast. PoPs drop off significantly around day break Tuesday, but cannot completely rule out some lingering light rain.

Rainfall amounts through Monday night look to range from about an inch to an inch and a quarter. Have continue to leave out mention of thunder with minimal elevated instability.

Temperatures on Monday will be significantly warmer than the past several days. Highs should reach the lower and middle 50s for most locations, with upper 50s along the coast. Temperatures Monday night will not change too much from late day readings in the 50s.

Fog potential appears low at this time, especially early Tuesday morning. However, it bears watching with temperatures well into the 50s moving over SSTs in the upper 40s to near 50.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. Main impacts/forecast challenges this time frame will be post frontal precipitation Tuesday night into Wednesday, and next system over the weekend. Much depends on placement of upper jet, and eventual evolution of the upper level trough during the mid week period.

Based on 12Z model suite and in collaboration with surrounding offices/WPC, lingering upper trough and placement of upper jet should result in a continuation of post frontal precip Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. A transition from rain to snow will occur as colder air advects in NW to SE. With lingering QPF of a quarter to a third of an inch around the time of transition, 1 to 4 inches of snow is possible across the area. Reasonable worst case scenario of around 6 inches is possible in spots away from the immediate coast. Much can change, so stay tuned.

Prior to that, low coverage for showers within the warm sector Tuesday morning will give way to increasing Pops Tue afternoon along the cold front, with plain rain expected.

Dry weather returns Wed afternoon through Friday as high pressure builds. Airmass does not look quite as cold as it did for the past few days, but chilly air is expected behind the front, with highs Thursday around or just above freezing.

WAA precip may arrive late Friday or Friday night from the south, but model differences in upstream trough remain, so confidence in exact forecast details such as timing and coverage of precip remains low. At this time, would generally expect wet weather Saturday (mainly rain), and possibly into Sunday although dry air advecting in from the west should result in lower rain chances Sunday.

Temperatures will warm to above normal late week and next weekend.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. MVFR/IFR conditions develop with rain moving in ahead of an approaching frontal wave from the south. Generally IFR ceilings on Monday, with rain that could be moderate to occasionally heavy through the day into evening.

Light south to variable winds will become S/SE toward daybreak ahead of an approaching warm front. S winds then ramp up late morning into the afternoon at 15-20 kt with gusts 25 to 30 kt along the coast. Isolated G35-40 kt possible. LLWS with SSW winds of 40-50 kt at 2kft.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. Tuesday. MVFR or lower conds in showers. SW gusts around 20 kt possible. Winds shift to the NW with gusts 25-30kt with a cold frontal passage in the late afternoon/evening. Tuesday Night into Wednesday. MVFR or lower with rain in the evening, likely becoming IFR or lower transitioning to sleet then snow late Tuesday Night, continuing into Wednesday morning push. W- NW G20-25kt possible. Potential for light snow accumulations. Snow ends Wednesday afternoon with conditions improving to VFR. Thursday into Friday. VFR.

MARINE. SCA remains in effect on the ocean waters through 09Z. There is a short period where winds drop off early Monday morning. However, an approaching warm front from the south will aid in winds ramping up quickly by Monday afternoon. Winds on all waters will increase to SCA levels in the afternoon and gales look to develop on the ocean. The highest potential for gales appears to occur late in the afternoon through Monday night. Have converted the gale watch to a gale warning on the ocean waters and have issued a SCA on the LI Sound, LI Bays, and NY Harbor for Monday afternoon through Monday night. Ocean seas will also build to 7 to 12 ft late Monday afternoon and Monday night.

Southwesterly winds will diminish Tuesday as the cold front approaches, with rough seas subsiding somewhat as a result. The front passes through the area Tuesday night with marginal SCA conditions possible Wednesday into Thursday morning in a W-NW flow. Winds diminish and seas subside quite a bit Thursday afternoon and Thursday night.

There is the potential for another storm system to impact the waters at the end of the week.

HYDROLOGY. A long duration precipitation event is expected from late tonight into Wednesday. The precipitation late tonight into Tuesday will be in the form of plain rain. The precipitation transitions to frozen Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Total liquid equivalent precipitation of 1 to 2 inches is forecast. Nuisance/poor drainage flooding may occur on Monday afternoon and Monday night when the heaviest rain falls.

Next significant rain of at least a half an inch is expected by the weekend. Too early to ascertain hydrologic impacts.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still operating at reduced power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ330-335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for ANZ350-353-355. Gale Warning from noon today to 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ350- 353-355.

SYNOPSIS . DS/PW NEAR TERM . DS/PW SHORT TERM . DS LONG TERM . PW AVIATION . DJ/16/DW MARINE . DS/PW HYDROLOGY . DS/PW EQUIPMENT . //


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 6 mi54 min NNE 3.9 G 5.8 40°F 39°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 13 mi39 min NE 5.8 G 7.8 40°F 32°F40°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 16 mi51 min SE 4.1 G 5.1 41°F 42°F1024.8 hPa
44069 25 mi54 min SW 3.9 G 5.8 47°F 37°F46°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 25 mi57 min N 1 G 2.9
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 31 mi51 min 42°F 46°F1024 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 35 mi51 min NNE 2.9 G 4.1 41°F 1023.9 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 38 mi39 min NNW 1.9 G 3.9 46°F 1024.2 hPa (-2.2)43°F
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 39 mi51 min 40°F 45°F1024 hPa
MHRN6 40 mi51 min NE 2.9 G 6
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 41 mi51 min Calm G 1 40°F 40°F1024.3 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 41 mi51 min ENE 2.9 G 5.1 42°F 41°F1024.2 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 48 mi49 min S 9.7 G 12 54°F 51°F4 ft1024.2 hPa (-2.0)

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY12 mi46 minNE 33.00 miFog/Mist44°F41°F89%1024.4 hPa
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY17 mi1.7 hrsN 00.50 miLight Rain Fog38°F36°F93%1025.1 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY22 mi1.7 hrsN 02.50 miLight Rain Fog/Mist45°F44°F97%1025 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY22 mi48 minENE 53.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist42°F39°F89%1024 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY23 mi48 minE 34.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist42°F42°F100%1024.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFRG

Wind History from FRG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmN3CalmSE3SE6S7S9S10S11
G15
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1 day agoN4NW7NW5NW7NW8N8N7N9N9NW10N13NW6NW10NW5NW6NW5CalmN3NW3CalmNE3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoW6W4CalmS4SW6SW11SW14SW14SW16
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Tide / Current Tables for Cold Spring Harbor, Oyster Bay, Long Island, New York
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Cold Spring Harbor
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:46 AM EST     0.64 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:12 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:54 AM EST     7.90 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:03 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:21 PM EST     0.19 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:25 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:21 PM EST     7.09 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.31.90.90.71.42.84.66.37.57.97.35.94.22.51.10.20.41.53.14.86.276.95.9

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:30 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:21 AM EST     0.90 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 04:13 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 06:14 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:35 AM EST     -0.68 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 12:29 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:04 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:45 PM EST     0.98 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 04:27 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:50 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:02 PM EST     -0.68 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.10.10.40.90.80.30-0.1-0.4-0.6-0.7-0.4-0.10.10.30.810.60.2-0-0.3-0.6-0.7-0.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.