Tuesday, August11, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Head of the Harbor, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:57AMSunset 7:57PM Tuesday August 11, 2020 2:31 PM EDT (18:31 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 1:35PM Illumination 47% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 153 Pm Edt Tue Aug 11 2020
Today..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers and tstms late.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Patchy fog in the morning. Chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Wed night..S winds around 5 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..NE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..SE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Fri..E winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Fri night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 153 Pm Edt Tue Aug 11 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A broad area of high pressure will continue to drift east over the atlantic today. A cold front will approach tonight before stalling over the waters through the end of the week. High pressure builds in for the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Head of the Harbor, NY
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location: 40.91, -73.16     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 111809 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 209 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2020

SYNOPSIS. A broad area of high pressure will continue to drift east over the Atlantic today. A cold front will approach tonight before stalling over the region through the end of the week. High pressure builds in for the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. The forecast remains on track this morning with only minor updates to temperatures and dew points over the next few hours to better capture the latest trends. Stratus clouds are continuing to mix into a cumulus field which should remain through the day.

Heat and humidity will continue today as surface high pressure drifts east over the Atlantic. Much like yesterday, high temperatures will rise into the lower 90s for locations from New York City north and west, and into the mid to upper 80s across Long Island and coastal Connecticut. With dew points remaining around 70 through the day, this will again result in heat index values in the mid 90s across much of the area. The Heat Advisory remains in effect through Wednesday for all but Suffolk County in New York and southern Middlesex and New London counties in Connecticut.

Once again, can't completely rule out a few diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, but forcing remains limited. The best chances for any precipitation today will be across the interior.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents at Atlantic Ocean beaches today.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/. Any showers and thunderstorms that do develop will quickly diminish after sunset with the loss of daytime heating. Meanwhile, a cold front will begin to approach from the west overnight before stalling across the area during the day on Wednesday. While much of the region will remain dry through the overnight hours, showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front could work eastward into portions of the Lower Hudson Valley after midnight. The better precipitation chances come during the day on Wednesday as the front stalls across the area, with showers and thunderstorms possible across much of the area.

While increased cloud cover on Wednesday will likely help hold temperatures a few degrees lower than earlier in the week, dew points will rise as moisture begins to pool along the front, resulting in another day with heat index values in the mid 90s across much of the area.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. With the cold front remaining stalled across the area, shower and thunderstorm chances will continue through the beginning of the long term period. Some h5 energy embedded in the weak flow is progged to pass along and north of the surface front Thu and Fri. This would bring chances for shwrs and tstms each day. The energy is likely remnant upstream convection however, so confidence in timing, placement, and coverage is very low and probabilities were capped at the chance level. With precipitable water values increasing to around 2 inches on Thursday and weak flow aloft, can't rule out the potential for minor flooding with any showers/storms. The NBM with local adjustments was used for temps.

High pres builds in from ern Canada over the weekend. The latest 12Z model data suggests the influence will be strong enough to keep the cwa dry all weekend. Would prefer to see some consistency before pulling all pops attm, but numbers were limited to 20 percent or less, which was blw the NBM. Temps again based on the NBM.

A warm front possible for Mon. Pops were limited to slight chance as this is too far out for any timing confidence.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. High pressure remains over the Western Atlantic as a weak cold front slowly approaches through this evening. The cold front then moves through the region Wednesday.

Stratus remains along the south shore of Long Island and was slowly moving northward, with periods of IFR conditions at KJFK and KISP. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected at the terminals into early this evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely along the sea breeze boundary across southern Connecticut and into northeastern New Jersey with local MVFR.

This evening IFR stratus is likely to move inland and remain through tonight. The best chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm will be at KSWF overnight as the cold front moves into the area. At the coastal terminals just mentioned VCSH as the showers will be weakening.

The IFR stratus dissipates Wednesday morning with VFR developing.

Winds will be southerly through this afternoon with sea breezes. As the sea breeze weakens this evening wind become SW around 5 kt, with outlying terminals becoming light and variable. Wednesday morning winds will be SW 5 to 10 kt, except at KSWF where winds will be northwest. Afternoon sea breezes are expected Wednesday.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. Wednesday aftn-Thursday. Chance for showers and thunderstorms with MVFR or lower conditions. Coastal IFR conditions possible Wednesday night. Friday. Chance of showers and thunderstorms with MVFR conditions. Saturday through Sunday. MVFR with a slight chance of showers.

MARINE. Winds and seas will remain below SCA criteria through Friday night. Increased ely flow behind a cold front over the weekend could produce sca conditions, especially on the ocean.

HYDROLOGY. Precipitable water values will increase to around 2 inches Wednesday night into Thursday as a cold front stalls across the area. With weak flow aloft, minor flooding will be possible in any showers and thunderstorms, primarily in urban and other poor drainage areas.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for CTZ005>010. NY . Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NYZ067>075-176>179. NJ . Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NJZ002-004-006- 103>108. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . FEB NEAR TERM . DJ SHORT TERM . FEB LONG TERM . FEB/JMC AVIATION . MET MARINE . FEB/JMC HYDROLOGY . FEB


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44069 15 mi46 min SSW 9.7 G 14 76°F 74°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 18 mi43 min S 14 G 17 83°F 79°F1014.1 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 22 mi46 min S 9.7 G 14 84°F 69°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 29 mi43 min SSW 8 G 8.9 83°F 82°F1014.4 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 30 mi46 min S 9.7 G 14 83°F 73°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 33 mi43 min SSW 12 G 14 82°F 1015.4 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 46 mi21 min S 7.8 G 7.8 73°F1015.4 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 47 mi21 min S 12 G 16 74°F1014.4 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 48 mi43 min 84°F 77°F1014.7 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY8 mi35 minSSW 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F73°F79%1015.6 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY17 mi35 minSSW 1110.00 miA Few Clouds83°F72°F70%1015.6 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY18 mi38 minS 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy82°F73°F74%1015.6 hPa
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT19 mi39 minS 1310.00 miFair87°F72°F61%1014.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KISP

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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1 day agoS12S11S13S13SW9S7SW7SW8SW10SW8SW8SW6SW6SW4SW5SW4SW3W7SW6SW54S8S11SW10
2 days agoSE8SE8S7S7S6S5S5S4SW4SW3S3CalmS3SW3CalmCalmSW4SW5SW7SW65S8S6S10

Tide / Current Tables for Stony Brook, Smithtown Bay, Long Island Sound, New York
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Stony Brook
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:16 AM EDT     5.44 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:31 AM EDT     1.19 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:47 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Tue -- 01:35 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:41 PM EDT     6.00 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.2234.155.45.34.63.62.61.81.31.31.934.25.25.865.54.53.42.31.6

Tide / Current Tables for Port Jefferson Harbor entrance, Long Island Sound, New York
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Port Jefferson Harbor entrance
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:11 AM EDT     5.92 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:22 AM EDT     1.29 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:47 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Tue -- 01:35 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:36 PM EDT     6.53 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.42.33.54.65.55.95.74.93.72.71.81.31.42.23.44.75.76.46.55.94.73.52.41.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.