Sunday, August9, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mount Hermon, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:01AMSunset 8:06PM Sunday August 9, 2020 4:07 PM EDT (20:07 UTC) Moonrise 10:18PMMoonset 10:44AM Illumination 67% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 110 Pm Edt Sun Aug 9 2020
This afternoon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers after midnight.
Thu..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the morning, then chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..SW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 110 Pm Edt Sun Aug 9 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Weak high pressure remains over the area today. The high becomes a part of the western atlantic high pressure Monday, which then dominates through the middle of the week. A cold front nears the waters on Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mount Hermon, NJ
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location: 40.94, -75     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 091928 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 328 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will translate offshore later today. A series of weak lows will bring chances for showers and storms starting Tuesday. A cold front is expected to approach the region Thursday into Friday, but will stall just north of our area.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Weak surface trough with a weak mid-level shortwave approaching from the west and moving into the Delaware Valley. With surface dew points in the 60s and low 70s, there is abundant moisture and instability available for some convection to develop, but the lift needed is weak. SB CAPE values range from 2000-2500 J/kg across Delmarva, southeast Pennsylvania, and southern New Jersey, and 1500- 2000 J/kg over northern New Jersey and the southern Poconos. Shear is weak, and Lifted Index is as low as -3 across Delmarva.

A small area of showers developed over the Delaware Valley and are passing through northern portions of Delmarva and are moving into southeast Pennsylvania and southern New Jersey. There have been a few rumbles of thunder, and some embedded thunderstorms are possible going into the early evening hours.

A few more showers and thunderstorms are possible across eastern New Jersey as a sea breeze tracks west and moves into that unstable airmass.

Important to note that there is not much upper level support for long lived convection.

After sunset, any convection quickly dissipates.

A warm, humid airmass will be in place tonight, and patchy fog will develop.

Lows in the 60s and low 70s.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/. High pressure will be entrenched offshore on Monday, and southwest flow develops behind the high. Dew points continue to rise in the morning, but going into the afternoon, BUFKIT profiles indicating enough dry air aloft that would allow for mixing in the afternoon. So during the peak heating of the day, surface dew points would fall from the low 70s in the morning to the upper 60s. As a result, with highs in the low 90s, the widespread max heat index Monday afternoon should be in the mid 90s, but less than 100.

Another weak shortwave passing through the region may trigger another round of isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon. Will cap PoPs at slight chance.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Monday night weak mid-level ridging will be overhead with a strong upper level low located over central Canada. Ahead of this closed low, a series of upper level disturbances will approach the area. This will allow PWATs to quickly recover towards 1.7", and therefore the chance of showers and thunderstorms will also return Tuesday. The other main story Tuesday will be highs around 90 degrees as 850 mb temperatures surge towards 20 degrees C. Heat index values Tuesday will likely top out around or just below 100 degrees F.

On Wednesday a mid-level shortwave will be over the Ohio Valley and begin to stall. The general idea is for packets of PV to then break off from the wave and move across the Mid-Atlantic region. Simultaneously, a weak cold front will approach the NY/ PA border from the north. The overall consensus here appears to be for the front to stall somewhere over northern PA/ NJ. Either way, another active period with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms appears possible Wednesday into Thursday.

By Friday the quasi-stationary mid-level disturbance over the Ohio Valley looks to finally get a nudge from another shortwave diving southeast out of MN. This second wave will cause the first mid-level disturbance to eject northeast somewhere over Ontario/ Quebec. As this occurs the stalled boundary over the Mid-Atlantic will begin to loose cohesion and wash north. This means continued chances of showers and thunderstorms Friday into Saturday.

AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

This evening (through 00Z) . Mostly VFR. Isolated SHRA/TSRA may impact some of the terminals, and will AMD TAF as needed, as confidence was too low in convection over a given terminal to include in the 18Z TAFs. Brief sub-VFR conditions possible. SW winds less than 10 kt. Low confidence on convection impacting a given terminal. High confidence on winds.

Tonight (00Z-12Z Monday) . VFR initially. However, patchy fog may reduce VSBYs to MVFR or lower, mainly after 06Z. Light and variable winds. Moderate confidence on the overall pattern, but low confidence on the details of the fog.

Monday (12Z Monday-00Z Tuesday) . Overall, VFR. Isolated SHRA/TSRA may develop in the afternoon. SW winds less than 10 kt. Low confidence on convection over a given terminal. High confidence on winds.

Outlook .

Monday night . Mostly VFR conditions expected, but patchy fog may result in MVFR or even IFR conditions. Light southerly winds. Moderate confidence on most aspects of the forecast, but low confidence on the fog potential.

Tuesday through Wednesday night . Mostly VFR conditions expected. There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms, primarily in the afternoon each day which could result in brief MVFR conditions. Southerly winds up to 10 kt. Moderate confidence on most aspects of the forecast, but low confidence on the potential for storms at the TAF sites.

Thursday through Friday . Starting with VFR conditions. MVFR or even IFR conditions may develop by Thursday afternoon as the chance for showers and thunderstorms increases. Southeasterly winds 10 kt or less. Low confidence.

MARINE. Winds and seas will be below Small Craft Advisory criteria tonight through Monday. Patchy fog with 1-3 NM VSBY possible along the coast late tonight through early Monday morning.

Outlook .

Sunday night through Friday . Winds and seas should stay below SCA criteria. Thunderstorms are possible, especially towards the end of the week, which could produce locally higher winds and waves.

Rip Currents .

There is a low risk for the development of dangerous rip currents on Sunday and Monday. Weather conditions and waves should be similar on both days. The wind will favor the southeast and south at 5 to 10 MPH. Breaking waves are forecast to be less than 2 feet with a medium period swell from the southeast.

EQUIPMENT. The NOAA Weather Radio All-Hazards broadcast from Hibernia Park Pennsylvania (Station WNG-704) remains off the air.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . None.

Synopsis . Haines Near Term . MPS Short Term . MPS Long Term . Haines Aviation . Haines/MPS/Johnson Marine . Haines/MPS/Johnson Equipment . WFO PHI


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MHRN6 49 mi68 min SSE 8 G 9.9
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 50 mi50 min 87°F 78°F1017.9 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 53 mi50 min 79°F 1017.8 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 55 mi50 min 83°F 76°F1018.2 hPa

Wind History for Bergen Point West Reach, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Andover, Aeroflex-Andover Airport, NJ15 mi74 minVar 5 mi84°F66°F55%1018 hPa
Mount Pocono, Pocono Mountains Municipal Airport, PA24 mi75 minWSW 1110.00 miFair80°F60°F51%1019.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for K12N

Wind History from 12N (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr3Calm4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmSW3SW4SW6SW4S4655
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalm4
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE43NE34NE44Calm4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for New Brunswick, New Jersey
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New Brunswick
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:46 AM EDT     5.62 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:06 AM EDT     0.62 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:41 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 01:18 PM EDT     5.51 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:34 PM EDT     1.37 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:16 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.45.65.14.12.81.70.90.60.91.93.24.35.15.55.44.73.62.61.91.41.4234

Tide / Current Tables for Belleville, Passaic River, New Jersey
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Belleville
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:42 AM EDT     5.54 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:36 AM EDT     0.91 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:40 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 01:12 PM EDT     5.48 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:10 PM EDT     1.61 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:14 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.45.55.14.33.12.11.5111.73.14.35.25.55.34.73.82.82.31.91.61.92.84

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.