Wednesday, August21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Towamensing Trails, PA

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:18AMSunset 7:55PM Wednesday August 21, 2019 8:10 PM EDT (00:10 UTC) Moonrise 10:07PMMoonset 10:54AM Illumination 62% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 412 Pm Edt Wed Aug 21 2019
.severe Thunderstorm watch 609 in effect until 9 pm edt this evening...
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Scattered showers and tstms, mainly this evening.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of tstms in the evening. Chance of showers.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the morning.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon.
Sun night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 412 Pm Edt Wed Aug 21 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front will slowly approach the waters through Thursday, passing Thursday night. High pressure builds in behind the front through the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Towamensing Trails, PA
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location: 40.94, -75.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 212239
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
639 pm edt Wed aug 21 2019

Synopsis
A cold front extended from low pressure in southwestern quebec
to the middle mississippi river valley this afternoon. The
boundary will progress slowly to the southeast. It is forecast
to move into our region on Thursday night before drifting to our
south on Friday. High pressure is expected to follow for the
weekend. The high should gradually lose its influence over our
weather during the early and middle parts of the new week.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
Heat indices have dropped below heat advisory thresholds, thus,
the advisory has been dropped across the area.

Severe threat has also dissipated with earlier convection along
and west of i-95, so the severe thunderstorm watch has been
cancelled for these areas. Instability remains somewhat strong
with MUCAPE values still in excess of 1000-2000 j kg across nj
and delmarva, thus, the watch continues mainly east of i-95.

Shear has been relatively meager this afternoon. The weakening
of the shortwave trough that has moved into the area out of the
great lakes has also deamplified, which has resulted in less
directional shear than what much of the guidance was suggesting
earlier this morning. This may be what is hindering the severe
threat this afternoon and evening.

Damaging winds will continue to be the main threat across this
area, although there will be a threat for hail with a fair
amount of CAPE above the freezing level. Another concern this
afternoon will be the potential for heavy rainfall. Pw values
remain 1.75-2.00 inches, so any thunderstorm will be efficient
rain producers.

Things will settle down overnight. The second half of the
overnight looks dry. Temperatures will fall back into the mid
60s to mid 70s depending on location. Some patchy fog is
possible, especially across those locales that see any rain into
the evening hours.

Winds will become less than 10 mph and veer to the west.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through 6 pm Thursday
As a result of the winds veering to the west (at least 1st half
of day), dewpoints are forecast to be a few degrees lower
tomorrow. And with the lower dewpoints, we are seeing lower
apparent temperatures. The i-95 corridor and nj coastal plain
will see apparent temperatures in the mid to upper 90s. The
delmarva will see apparent temperatures around 100. While it
will still be quite hot, these values are below heat advisory
criteria. We will not issue an advisory at this time. Actual air
temperatures are forecast to be around 80 across the poconos,
the upper 80s across berks and the lehigh valley, around 90
across the i95 corridor and coastal plain, and in the mid to
upper 80s near the ocean.

A cold front will be knocking on our doorstep tomorrow morning.

By days end, it should be slowly working across east central pa
and northern nj. A weak low could be riding along the front as
we head into the evening hours. With better forcing tomorrow,
more organized precipitation is possible. Per the SPC convective
outlook, at this time, the area remains under a marginal risk.

Per wpc, the area remains under a marginal risk for excessive
rainfall.

Winds should be 10 mph or less for most tomorrow. While they
are expected to turn more westerly tonight, they should back to
southwest again tomorrow afternoon as the cold front approaches.

Of course, winds could be stronger in and in the vicinity of
storms.

Long term Thursday night through Wednesday
The cold front approaching from the northwest is forecast to
move into our region on Thursday evening. Showers and
thunderstorms ahead of and with the front will produce locally
heavy rain on Thursday evening. Also, there remains a chance for
isolated strong wind gusts and hail.

As the cold front settles in our region on Thursday night,
showers and thunderstorms will linger. However, the potential
for heavy rain, strong wind gusts and hail should diminish from
northwest to southeast as conditions stabilize somewhat.

The front is expected to be across the DELMARVA region on
Friday morning, and it should continue to sink slowly to the
south. We will continue to mention a chance of showers and
thunderstorms for Friday, especially from the philadelphia
metropolitan area southward.

High pressure is expected to be centered in ontario on Friday
night. The high should build east and southeastward over the
weekend, bringing dry weather and cooler temperatures to our
region. A northeast to east flow is forecast to develop by
Sunday. While some of the guidance is showing some spotty light
precipitation for Sunday, it may be a case where the effects of
the trajectory off the ocean are overdone. Perhaps the indicated
moisture will only manifest itself in the form of some cloud
cover.

As the high moves farther away from our region, a trailing
surface ridge to the lee of the appalachians is expected to
narrow on Monday before gradually losing its influence over our
weather on Tuesday and Wednesday. Guidance consensus regarding
the timing and coverage of any precipitation during the early
and middle parts of the new week is lacking. As a result, we
have included only a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms.

Aviation 00z Thursday through Monday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight... Showers and thunderstorms will be possible this
evening, especially for miv and acy as a line of thunderstorms
pushes east through the early overnight. Lower ceilings and
vsbys are possible with any shower or thunderstorm. In addition,
patchy fog may develop overnight, especially where rainfall
occurs during the afternoon and evening hours. A mix ofVFR and
MVFR conditions are expected through daybreak.

Thursday... MainlyVFR, though brief restrictions may occur in
morning fog and afternoon showers storms. West to southwest
winds up to 10 kt are expected.

Outlook...

Thursday evening... Showers and thunderstorms with MVFR and ifr
conditions. The rain may be heavy at times. Southwest to west
wind 5 to 10 knots.

Thursday night... MainlyVFR. A chance of showers and
thunderstorms with locally MVFR and ifr conditions. Northwest
wind 5 to 10 knots.

Friday... MainlyVFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms,
mainly from the kphl area southward. Northwest wind 5 to 10
knots.

Friday night... MainlyVFR. A chance of showers and
thunderstorms around kilg, kmiv and kacy. North wind 10 knots or
less.

Saturday... MainlyVFR. North to northeast wind 5 to 10 knots.

Saturday night... MainlyVFR. Northeast wind 10 knots or less.

Sunday... MainlyVFR. Northeast to east wind around 10 knots.

Sunday night... MainlyVFR. Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots.

Monday... MainlyVFR. Northeast to east wind around 10 knots.

Marine
Tonight... A SCA is in effect through 10 pm on the lower de bay
and through 4 am on the ocean. Winds are expected to gust to 25
kt. Seas are expected to build up to 4 feet. Both winds and seas
will diminish the second half of the night.

Thursday... Sub-sca conditions are expected.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Saturday night... No marine headlines are
anticipated.

Sunday through Monday... A northeasterly wind 15 to 20 knots
with gusts around 25 knots should cause wave heights on our
ocean waters to build to 5 or 6 feet.

Rip currents...

with winds 15-20 knots on the ocean, and seas building to 4-5
feet with a period of 6-8 seconds, the rip current remains
moderate for new jersey, but low for delaware.

Similar conditions are anticipated for Thursday.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Thursday for anz450>455.

Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for anz431.

Synopsis... Iovino
near term... Davis kruzdlo
short term... Kruzdlo
long term... Iovino
aviation... Davis iovino kruzdlo
marine... Davis iovino kruzdlo


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 72 mi95 min S 7 G 8.9
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 73 mi71 min WSW 7 G 9.9 77°F 82°F1012 hPa (+0.3)

Wind History for Burlington, Delaware River, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mount Pocono, Pocono Mountains Municipal Airport, PA20 mi18 minWSW 410.00 miA Few Clouds75°F69°F82%1012.4 hPa
Allentown, Lehigh Valley International Airport, PA22 mi20 minS 510.00 miFair82°F70°F67%1010.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMPO

Wind History from MPO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmS6CalmCalmSE3CalmSE4SW4SW3SE4SE6S5SW7S6SW6SW8S9SW8S11SW8SW9SW4SW4
1 day agoW3W3W3W7NW8NW6NW7NW3NW5N7N7CalmN7N5CalmNE4S6CalmSW10SW7SW5S4SE4S3
2 days agoNW3CalmCalmSW3CalmNW4CalmCalmNW4NW3W4W7W93W4W9W11W12W9W11NW8W10W6W5

Tide / Current Tables for Trenton, Delaware River, New Jersey (2)
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Trenton
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Wed -- 02:53 AM EDT     0.89 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:28 AM EDT     7.64 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:50 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:08 PM EDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:57 PM EDT     7.65 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:03 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.91.91.20.92.256.97.67.66.85.54.12.81.810.61.33.86.47.47.77.36.35

Tide / Current Tables for Trenton, Delaware River, New Jersey
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Trenton
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:05 AM EDT     1.03 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:34 AM EDT     8.02 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:50 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 02:04 PM EDT     0.77 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:46 PM EDT     8.27 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:03 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.81.311.63.96.77.987.76.44.52.91.710.81.12.95.97.98.387.25.53.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.