Sunday, July5, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Towamensing Trails, PA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:36AMSunset 8:40PM Sunday July 5, 2020 2:09 AM EDT (06:09 UTC) Moonrise 8:24PMMoonset 4:48AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 124 Am Edt Sun Jul 5 2020
Overnight..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers.
Sun..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..N winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Mon night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 124 Am Edt Sun Jul 5 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Weak high pressure remains over the waters through Monday with a series of surface troughs shifting near or through the area Sunday and Monday. A warm front moves through on Tuesday, otherwise weak high pressure prevails through the middle of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Towamensing Trails, PA
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location: 40.94, -75.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 050506 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 106 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020

SYNOPSIS. A cold front remains situated off to our south and west this afternoon. A secondary cold front will attempt to work southward into the region early Monday, before stalling and lifting back northward. A summer-like pattern persists through the week with afternoon showers and thunderstorms and above average temperatures. A coastal low looks to move out of the Southeast and into the Mid- Atlantic into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/. KDIX radar indicating a few sporadic showers across portions of Sussex and Warren counties, and a few more over Middlesex and Monmouth counties. Will go ahead and add slight chance PoPs for isolated showers for a few hours.

Otherwise, main forecast concern the rest of the overnight is patchy fog development. With proximity to minor vorticity maxima aloft, think potential for denser fog is quite localized, especially given the sparse coverage of precipitation today. Nevertheless, recent surface observations suggest fog will be present overnight as winds become calm.

Low temperatures should be slightly above seasonal averages.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. On Sunday, a lee-side surface trough will likely be in place across the northeast and Mid Atlantic states. As a couple of weak short wave/vorticity impulses move across the area, they could help lead to a few isolated/scattered showers or thunderstorms. PW values decrease from north to south through the day, but will remain 1.25- 1.50 inches across southern New Jersey, Delaware, and eastern Maryland through the day, so these areas will have a better chance of seeing any heavier rainfall.

The surface trough will drift offshore through the evening hours, and PW values will continue to lower to 1.00-1.25 inches. With no strong short wave/voticity impulses overnight, a dry forecast is expected overnight Sunday.

On Monday into Monday night, another backdoor front approaches from the north and settles across the area, while moisture increases as PW values increase to 1.50-1.75 inches. A couple of short waves/vorticity impulses are forecast to move across the area. This could lead to a chance of scattered or isolated showers and thunderstorms through the day and into the evening hours on Monday.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. A relatively warm upcoming week as ridging slowly begins to take hold across the eastern U.S. Temperatures look to average A slow- moving mid-level disturbance will trek across the Southeast late week, possibly impacting our region into the weekend as a coastal low.

A quiet start to the extended Tuesday as ridging expands eastward across the eastern U.S. ahead of a developing synoptic trough across the West Coast. The stalled fronts mentioned previously mentioned in the the synopsis above will begin to retreat northward as a warm front. To our north, a potent shortwave and surface low look to move across central Canada into the Hudson Bay region. Meanwhile, a southern stream perturbation will work its way across the Gulf Coast as surface low pressure begins to form. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms both afternoons appear likely with the front in the vicinity and forecast SB CAPE values from 1000 to potentially 3000 J/kg. Highs will be seasonably warm in the upper 80s to low 90s.

The aforementioned low to our south looks to enter the Carolinas Thursday, but this is where model discrepancy becomes more noticeable. The GFS takes the center inland across the Piedmont, while the EC keeps the center off the coast. Another factor of question is how this surface low will interact with an approaching shortwave trough across the Great Lakes Friday into Saturday. If the GFS prediction has its way, a wetter forecast looks to take place for our region, but if the low stays well enough offshore, we may remain sandwiched between both features, going mostly unscathed.

Am somewhat more inclined to believe the EC at this time given previous environmental support for cut-off lows this year, but kept wide chance PoPs for the region through the weekend. Wouldn't call it a washout, but will want to monitor the forecast as model agreement on storm track solidifies. Highs look to remain seasonable in the mid to upper 80s across the region Friday and Saturday.

AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight . Mainly VFR. Patchy fog is expected to occur at some of the terminals (best chances at RDG/ABE/TTN and MIV/ACY). Light and variable winds. Low confidence with patchy fog; otherwise, high confidence.

Sunday . Mainly VFR. A slight chance of showers/storms, but most terminals will likely be unaffected. Mostly variable winds under 10 kt, but a predominant west wind may develop during the afternoon. Moderate confidence.

Sunday night . Mainly VFR with light and variable winds. Moderate confidence.

Monday-Monday night . Mostly VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon and evening which may temporarily lead to lower conditions. West-southwest winds 5-10 knots during the day, become light out of the south-southeast during the evening and overnight.

Outlook .

Tuesday through Thursday . Prevailing VFR with temporary restrictions with afternoon showers and thunderstorms. South to southeasterly winds from 5 to 10 knots with gusts to 15 knots. Higher gusts in stronger thunderstorms possible. Moderate confidence.

MARINE. Tonight-Monday night . Conditions expected to remain below advisory levels through the period, although winds could gust around 20 knots at times. There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms each day which could lead to locally higher winds and waves.

Outlook .

Tuesday through Thursday . Sub-advisory conditions are expected to persist through this period with southeasterly winds from 10 to 15 knots and gusts around 15 knots. A few gusts to near 20 knots possible at times each afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon may yield temporary gusts above 25 knots. Seas ranging from 2 to 3 feet.

Rip Currents .

There is a low risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents today and Sunday, although the risk could become moderate late Sunday afternoon if southerly winds are a bit stronger than currently forecasted.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. High tide has passed for the New Jersey and Delaware coastal ocean waters, and water levels continue to recede and are below minor advisory thresholds. Therefore, the Coastal Flood Advisory expired at midnight.

High tide is upcoming for the tidal portion of the Delaware River and its tributaries. Although some spots may touch minor thresholds, they should fall below Advisory thresholds, so minor flooding should be highly localized.

For the high tide Sunday evening: With winds shifting slightly off shore, it appears that only spotty minor flooding is possible at this time.

Tidal flooding is not expected on the upper eastern shore of Chesapeake Bay.

EQUIPMENT. The NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards broadcast from Hibernia Park, PA (WNG704) remains off the air until further notice due to damage to the antenna during the June 3 derecho.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . None.

Synopsis . Davis Near Term . CMS/MPS/Robertson Short Term . Robertson Long Term . Davis Aviation . CMS/Davis Marine . Davis/Robertson Tides/Coastal Flooding . WFO PHI Equipment . WFO PHI


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 72 mi93 min SSW 2.9 G 5.1 74°F 82°F1013.7 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 73 mi57 min SW 4.1 G 7 72°F 82°F1014.4 hPa

Wind History for Burlington, Delaware River, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mount Pocono, Pocono Mountains Municipal Airport, PA20 mi76 minWNW 49.00 miFair65°F61°F87%1015 hPa
Allentown, Lehigh Valley International Airport, PA22 mi78 minNNW 56.00 miMostly Cloudy with Haze72°F66°F82%1013.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMPO

Wind History from MPO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmNW5NW7NW6N4N6NE5N9NE9N7NE6N5Calm3SW5S4CalmCalmCalmNW4W3NW4N6
1 day agoNW8NW11NW8NW9NW10NW8NW12NW7W8W9NW8NW10NW9
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Tide / Current Tables for Trenton, Delaware River, New Jersey (2)
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Trenton
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:44 AM EDT     Full Moon
Sun -- 03:25 AM EDT     9.86 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 05:46 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 11:24 AM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:53 PM EDT     8.09 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:31 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:17 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:28 PM EDT     0.64 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.85.78.19.79.68.67.36.153.61.80.40.835.47.38.17.46.25431.90.8

Tide / Current Tables for Trenton, Delaware River, New Jersey
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Trenton
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:44 AM EDT     Full Moon
Sun -- 03:14 AM EDT     9.45 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 05:46 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 10:44 AM EDT     -0.32 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:46 PM EDT     8.22 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:31 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:17 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:51 PM EDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.26.78.49.497.45.94.83.72.20.3-0.21.64.16.17.78.275.44.132.110.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.