Saturday, January18, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Port Jefferson, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 4:53PM Saturday January 18, 2020 6:25 PM EST (23:25 UTC) Moonrise 2:01AMMoonset 1:08PM Illumination 37% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 408 Pm Est Sat Jan 18 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon...
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft after midnight. Snow mixing with and changing to rain this evening. Scattered rain showers late. Vsby less than 1 nm, increasing to 1 to 3 nm late this evening.
Sun..W winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun night..NW winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon..NW winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 408 Pm Est Sat Jan 18 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. As low pressure moves across the upper great lakes region, a warm front will approach from the south and enter the region this evening, followed by a cold front late tonight. The low will pass east of new england on Sunday. High pressure will then slowly build from the west.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Jefferson, NY
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location: 40.95, -73.06     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 182054 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 354 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2020

SYNOPSIS. As low pressure moves across the upper Great Lakes region, a warm front will approach from the south and enter the region this evening, followed by a cold front late tonight. The low will pass east of New England on Sunday. High pressure will then slowly builds from the west through mid to late week period. A frontal system will approach next weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/. A winter weather advisory remains in effect for most of the region through 1 AM Sunday.

Initial WAA snow band is moving across the forks of Long Island and into SE CT. Precip has also filling in behind this band, and so steady light to moderate snow should continue into tonight.

With a southerly onshore flow this evening, precipitation should begin to transition to a rain/snow mix and then rain. The timing of this transition may delayed via dynamic cooling, with wet bulb temperatures still below freezing along the coast at 00Z. Also, enhanced convergence/lift via a coastal LLJ could result in moderate to briefly heavy precip mainly across Long Island and CT this evening. So, still expect the transition to begin 23Z to 02Z, especially the southeastern zones, and continue this evening.

It now appears that precip could end as a -FZRA/PL mix inland, as obs over SE PA indicate freezing rain and sleet as temps around 800 mb warm above 0C, and latest RAP soundings indicate this should enter NE NJ between 23Z-00Z, and spread NE into the rest of the area through about 04Z just as mid levels start to dry out and precip begins to wind down.

Did not change snowfall amounts very much, so still looking at a general 2-4 inch snowfall closer to the coast and 3-5 inches inland, give or take an inch.

Temps overnight should rise to the lower 40s along the coast, and into the mid/upper 30s most elsewhere except in some sheltered inland valleys. Scattered snow/rain showers are possible late as a trailing cold front moves across.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/. Deep cyclonic flow will remain as the center of the low pulls east, and a weak trough remains back across the Hudson Valley into southern New England. Models do indicate enough moisture with the trough and have some precipitation as energy continues to rotate through the longwave upper trough. Think that a few flurries will be possible inland but will leave out the mention at this time. Temps may not change very much through the day, with highs a GFS/NAM MOS/2m temp blend, upper 30s inland and lower 40s along the coast and across much of southern CT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. Canadian high pressure will build slowly, reaching the area by mid to late week. The area sits between the departing low and front, and high pressure across the mid west, resulting in a cold and gusty N/NW wind through Monday/Monday night. These chilly winds begin to abate Tuesday as the pressure gradient relaxes.

Upper northern stream trough over the northeast, with digging shortwave that rounds the base of the trough and passes well to the south by mid week. Ridge builds thereafter ahead of next trough that approaches by next weekend.

As for sensible weather, dry and cold conditions (below normal) are anticipated early in the week, with slow moderation back to above normal, with continued dry weather, by late in the week.

Temps aloft too warm for anything but rain by next Saturday. If temps are initially too cold, dependent on when precip arrives, some freezing rain is possible.

AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Low pressure and its associated frontal system moves across the northeast through tonight.

Initial band of snow is now moving across eastern LI and eastern CT. The next area of snow is quickly moving in from the west and should overspread the terminals through 22z. Conditions may briefly improve to VFR between snow bands, and then deteriorate to IFR and possibly LIFR conditions this evening. The snow will gradually mix with and change to rain across NYC and LI terminals 00-02z. The change to rain may also occur at HPN and coastal CT terminal, but may not happen until 02-03z. Conditions gradually improve overnight as the precipitation ends from west to east.

Winds will likely be light S-SE into the early evening under 10 kt Winds gradually shift to the SW overnight and increase. Winds will become gusty out of the W-WNW Sunday morning.

Forecast snow amounts: NYC and NE NJ terminals: 2-4 inches, LI terminals: 1-3 inches, Lower Hudson Valley terminals: 3-5 inches, Southern CT terminals: 3-5 inches.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. Sunday Afternoon-Sunday Night. VFR. W-WNW gusts near 20-25kt Gusts diminish late Sunday night. Monday-Thursday. VFR.

MARINE. SCA conds in increasing S flow should begin shortly on the western ocean waters and spread to the rest of the ocean waters early this evening, and there could be a few wind gusts approaching gale force on the ocean. Elsewhere, mainly sub SCA conds tonight, though the far eastern sound/bays might gusts up to 25 kt at times.

On Sunday, expect SCA conds daytime on all waters as W-NW winds increase behind departing low pressure. Thereafter, cold gusty NW winds will persist through Monday, then abate Tuesday, with light winds expected mid week.

Initially rough seas will subside through the week.

HYDROLOGY. No hydrologic impacts are expected through Friday of next week.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still operating at reduced power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for CTZ005>012. NY . Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for NYZ067>075- 078>080-176>179. NJ . Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for NJZ002-004- 006-103>108. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 6 PM EST Sunday for ANZ330- 335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ353-355. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ350.



SYNOPSIS . Goodman/PW NEAR TERM . Goodman SHORT TERM . Goodman LONG TERM . PW AVIATION . DS MARINE . Goodman/PW HYDROLOGY . Goodman/PW


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 17 mi55 min ESE 7 G 8 26°F 40°F1019.7 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 24 mi55 min ESE 1.9 G 6 24°F 39°F1019.9 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 28 mi85 min ESE 7.8 G 14 28°F 26°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 36 mi55 min ESE 3.9 G 7.8 28°F 32°F28°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 39 mi55 min S 1.9 G 7 27°F 39°F1020.3 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 49 mi35 min 19 G 23 38°F 46°F4 ft1019.8 hPa (-5.9)

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY11 mi89 minN 01.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist28°F27°F96%1021.7 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY14 mi89 minN 01.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist30°F27°F88%1022 hPa
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT16 mi33 minSE 91.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist30°F28°F92%1019.3 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY24 mi32 minS 81.50 miLight Snow Fog/Mist32°F30°F92%1020.5 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY24 mi32 minS 91.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist32°F28°F85%1019.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KISP

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW16
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N13N12N11N10N6NW6N8N7NE4N7N5N6N5NE3E5S6S55S9CalmNE4CalmS10
1 day agoNW18
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmE3CalmS4S9S7SE14S8S7SW9SW11W9W10NW20
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Tide / Current Tables for Port Jefferson, Long Island Sound, New York
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Port Jefferson
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:01 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:24 AM EST     7.10 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:52 AM EST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:08 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:51 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:55 PM EST     6.17 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.31.534.76.276.964.631.50.400.61.73.24.65.86.25.74.63.21.90.7

Tide / Current Tables for Stratford Shoal, Long Island Sound, New York
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Stratford Shoal
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:01 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:09 AM EST     6.77 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:36 AM EST     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:08 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:51 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:43 PM EST     5.96 feet High Tide
Sat -- 11:54 PM EST     0.08 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.51.83.456.26.86.55.43.92.410.1-00.723.54.85.75.95.34.12.81.50.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.