Thursday, April9, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Port Jefferson, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:20AMSunset 7:27PM Thursday April 9, 2020 9:19 AM EDT (13:19 UTC) Moonrise 9:35PMMoonset 7:34AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 601 Am Edt Thu Apr 9 2020
.gale warning in effect from noon edt today through Friday afternoon...
Today..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late this morning, then becoming S 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt early this afternoon, becoming W 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt late. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Chance of showers early this morning, then showers late this morning and afternoon. Tstms this afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..W winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Fri night..W winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..S winds around 5 kt, increasing to around 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Chance of rain in the evening, then rain after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Rain, mainly in the morning. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of rain in the evening. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 601 Am Edt Thu Apr 9 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Intensifying low pressure moving across upstate new york will send a strong cold front through the region today. The low will track up into the canadian maritimes on Friday, while high pressure over the mid section of the country builds east. The high moves across the waters Saturday night into Sunday morning. A complex low pressure system will approach Sunday night and move across on Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Jefferson, NY
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location: 40.95, -73.06     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 091153 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 753 AM EDT Thu Apr 9 2020

SYNOPSIS. Intensifying low pressure moving across upstate New York will send a strong cold front through the region today. High pressure will build from the west Friday through Saturday night, then move offshore on Sunday. A complex low pressure system will approach Sunday night and move across on Monday. A cold front will move across on Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Forecast remains on track, with minor adjustments made to temperatures and dew points where winds remain light under a partly cloudy sky.

A closed low pressure over the northern Great Lakes will deepen as it approaches the region today. A secondary low will then develop and rapidly deepen as it moves into Maine. Showers develop in multiple rounds, the first associated with a warm front late this morning followed by a line of showers and embedded thunderstorms with the aforementioned cold front this afternoon.

Strong dynamics aloft combined with the rapidly deepening surface low will result in an environment favorable for severe weather. SPC has upgraded to a Slight Risk for portions of the area. With strong large-scale ascent, thunderstorms should develop and quickly move in a line eastward. With strong winds in the low and mid levels, any thunderstorm will be able to produce damaging wind gusts and heavy downpours. A limiting factor closer to the coast would the lack of surface based instability mainly due to the marine influence and morning cloudiness. The line will continue to weaken as it moves eastward across Long Island.

The front will sweep quickly across the area this afternoon with a tight pressure gradient setting up over the region in its wake. Cold advection will result in deep mixing with BUFKIT profiles suggesting wind gusts in the 35-45 mph range. Therefore have expanded the wind advisory to cover the entire area.

High temperatures will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. Winds will temporarily come down this evening before strong cold advection arrives overnight bringing a secondary surge in winds by Friday morning. It will be a chilly night as the region remains in cyclonic flow with a broad upper trough will be over the northeast. Lows will drop into the 30s for most of the area and closer to 40 in and around NYC.

On the back side of the low that is slowly moving into the Canadian Maritimes, another vort max will move through Friday morning. This could kick off a few rain or snow showers into the afternoon.

The biggest concern on Friday will be the winds that develop as the pressure gradient tightens up. Strong westerly winds will gust 40-45 mph with sustained winds 25-30 mph. A wind advisory will likely be needed.

Temperatures will remain chilly on Friday in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Temperatures by Saturday morning will once again be in the 30s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. There will be an active upper level jet stream south of the region Friday night into Saturday that will eventually move northward back into the region Sunday into Sunday night. Early next week, jet will be south of the area and move back north into the region towards midweek.

At the surface, low pressure will be filling in as it continues moving northward within the Canadian Maritimes Friday night. High pressure will build in from the west Friday night into Saturday. The pressure gradient will slowly decrease during the time period. Weather will be dry with winds eventually becoming less gusty. High pressure will strengthen as it moves east Saturday night with the local pressure tendency in the region increasing Saturday night. The high will be moving offshore going into Sunday and will eventually give way to an approaching complex low pressure system approaching from the south and west. The progression of the system will have a warm front passage followed by a cold front passage Monday into Monday evening.

Dry weather will prevail Sunday into Sunday evening as the atmospheric column will have to sufficiently moisten before the commencement of rainfall ahead of this system. Rain becomes likely late Sunday night and continues through much of Monday. Heavy rain will be possible Monday morning with the bulk of the rainfall occurring Monday morning into early Monday afternoon. Rain tapers off Monday night.

Rain showers a possibility again on Tuesday into Tuesday night with another cold frontal passage. Models show possible stalling of the front offshore heading into Wednesday so another chance of rain showers is forecast Wednesday as well.

Temperatures on average are forecast to be a few degrees below normal Friday night through Saturday night, near normal Sunday, above normal Sunday night through Monday night, and closer to normal thereafter.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. A strong frontal system will impact the terminals today, with an approaching warm front this morning, followed by a cold frontal passage early to mid afternoon. MVFR conditions become widespread toward 14Z Thursday with showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Some of the thunderstorms may produce wind gust to near 40 kt. VFR returns aft 18-21Z.

A S/SE flow will increase to 10 to 15 kt with gusts 20 to 25 kt this morning. Low level wind shear develops and persists until the cold frontal passage.

With the frontal passage winds shift to the west and increase to 15- 25 kt with gusts 30-40 kt. Gusty W flow continues tonight at 20-30 kt.

. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support .

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Amendments likely for onset of gusts this morning and ceiling category changes. Brief IFR conditions possible this morning.

The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is GREEN . which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KLGA TAF Comments: Amendments likely for onset of gusts this morning and ceiling category changes.

The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is GREEN . which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KEWR TAF Comments: Amendments likely for onset of gusts this morning and ceiling category changes.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN . which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: Amendments likely for onset of gusts this morning and ceiling category changes. Brief IFR conditions possible this morning.

KHPN TAF Comments: Amendments likely for onset of gusts this morning and ceiling category changes.

KISP TAF Comments: Amendments likely for onset of gusts this morning and ceiling category changes. Brief IFR conditions possible this morning.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. Friday. VFR with W winds G35-40kt. Saturday. VFR. NW winds G20-25kt Sunday. VFR. Sunday Night-Monday. MVFR to IFR in rain. S winds G20-30 kt. Chance of LLWS.

MARINE. Gales on all waters today through Friday.

A strong frontal system will pass through the waters today with a strengthening southerly flow this morning, followed by a westerly gale developing in the afternoon. There looks to be short respite for the first half of tonight before gales return to the waters during the early morning hours Friday. A shot of cold air in conjunction with deepening low pressure tracking from northern New England into the Canadian Maritimes Thursday night into Friday will allow gales to continue through Friday evening.

SCA gusts for all waters Saturday. Sub-SCA conditions Saturday night into Sunday evening as high pressure moves across the waters. SCA gusts return for all waters late Sunday night with gales on the ocean probable again Monday with rest of waters maintaining SCA gusts. SCA gusts linger into much of Monday night. Ocean seas forecast of 5 to 8 ft Friday night, 3 to 5 ft Saturday morning into early Saturday afternoon. Then below 5 ft ocean seas thereafter through Sunday evening. Ocean seas build back up to near 6 to 11 ft late Sunday night into early next week.

FIRE WEATHER. Wetting rains today should help limit fire growth potential on Friday despite strong winds and low afternoon RH. With some drying out Sat could be a day of concern, with W winds still gusting to 30 mph and min RH 20-30%.

HYDROLOGY. Rainfall of 1/4 to 1/2 inch with locally higher amounts expected today. Low chance of minor nuisance flooding.

QPF 1-2 inches Sunday night into Monday could also cause at least minor poor drainage flooding at that time.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. The combination of spring tides (some places needed less than 1/4 ft of positive tidal departures for minor coastal flooding) and background tidal anomaly will have water levels exceeding minor flood thresholds for vulnerable locations along Western Long Island Sound, the south shore bays of western Long Island, and along NY/NJ harbor. This all despite mostly weak wind/wave forcing.

Astronomical tides are about 1/2 ft lower for this mornings high tides, but strengthening SE flow ahead of an approaching frontal system should allow for surge of 1-2 ft to develop, with another round of widespread minor coastal flooding in the aforementioned areas. Timing of peak winds looks to be after high tide farther east, but if stronger winds arrive sooner, minor coastal impacts could occur there as well.

Strong offshore flow develops before tonight high tide cycle. Similar to Wednesday nights tide, not much surge needed to reach minor flooding thresholds. Highest threat of minor coastal flooding is along the south shore bays of Long Island, with water slow to exit through the inlets. Elsewhere, a negative surge will likely have water levels falling below minor flood thresholds.

Breaking waves likely to build to 4-6 ft today, which will likely cause beach erosion, but dune impacts should be minimal.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is undergoing its final stages of testing, and is operating at full power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>012. Coastal Flood Advisory from noon today to 2 PM EDT this afternoon for CTZ009-010. NY . Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179. Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for NYZ074- 075-178. Coastal Flood Advisory from noon today to 2 PM EDT this afternoon for NYZ071-078-177. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for NYZ080-179. Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT Friday for NYZ178-179. NJ . Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004-006-103>108. Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for NJZ006- 106-108. MARINE . Gale Warning from noon today to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ330-335- 338-340-345-350-353-355.



SYNOPSIS . CB/Goodman NEAR TERM . CB SHORT TERM . CB LONG TERM . CB/JM AVIATION . DW MARINE . DW FIRE WEATHER . HYDROLOGY . CB/Goodman TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 17 mi49 min ESE 5.1 G 7 46°F 49°F997.4 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 24 mi49 min SE 6 G 8.9 46°F 48°F997.4 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 28 mi34 min E 1.9 G 3.9 49°F 47°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 36 mi34 min SSW 3.9 G 9.7 50°F 32°F48°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 39 mi49 min SSW 15 G 19 50°F 56°F997.4 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 49 mi29 min 16 G 18 49°F 46°F3 ft996.7 hPa (-3.8)

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY11 mi23 minSSE 1210.00 miOvercast50°F48°F93%996.9 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY14 mi23 minSE 8 G 1510.00 miOvercast49°F45°F86%997.6 hPa
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT16 mi27 minE 68.00 miOvercast47°F45°F93%997.5 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY24 mi26 minSE 710.00 miOvercast47°F46°F97%998.4 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY24 mi26 minSSE 1310.00 miOvercast51°F46°F86%996.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KISP

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN10NE11N12N9N9N10N6N9NW8N5CalmS6S5SW5SW4S3SW6SW6S4CalmS4SE5SE10SE12
1 day ago3W4W44S11SW12
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2 days agoN8N9--N13NW11
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Tide / Current Tables for Port Jefferson, Long Island Sound, New York
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Port Jefferson
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:41 AM EDT     8.34 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:04 AM EDT     -1.32 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:33 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:10 PM EDT     7.64 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:19 PM EDT     -0.84 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:35 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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88.37.35.43.21.1-0.6-1.3-0.80.82.956.87.67.25.83.81.90.2-0.8-0.60.82.85

Tide / Current Tables for Stratford Shoal, Long Island Sound, New York
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Stratford Shoal
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:24 AM EDT     8.12 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:46 AM EDT     -1.47 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:33 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 12:55 PM EDT     7.45 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:03 PM EDT     -0.87 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:36 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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87.96.64.62.30.3-1.1-1.4-0.61.23.45.56.97.46.85.23.21.2-0.2-0.9-0.31.23.35.5

Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.