Thursday, December12, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Poquott, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 4:26PM Thursday December 12, 2019 1:22 AM EST (06:22 UTC) Moonrise 6:00PMMoonset 8:23AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1217 Am Est Thu Dec 12 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 am est early this morning...
Rest of tonight..SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the afternoon.
Fri night..E winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the evening, then rain likely after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..E winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Rain in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain after midnight.
Tue..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Chance of rain.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of rain in the evening.
ANZ300 1217 Am Est Thu Dec 12 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Strong arctic high pressure builds in through tonight, then pushes offshore Thursday evening. Low pressure approaches from the south Friday and passes through on Saturday with high pressure building back in on Sunday and Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Poquott, NY
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location: 40.95, -73.08     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 120527 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1227 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

SYNOPSIS. Strong arctic high pressure builds in through tonight, then pushes offshore Thursday evening. Low pressure approaches from the south Friday and passes through on Saturday with high pressure building back in on Sunday and Monday. Another storm then impacts the area for Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/. Updated to account for latest observations with W-NW gusts along coastal areas reaching 30 kt (35 MPH)as strengthening high pressure and much colder air builds into the region.

Subsidence underneath the high will allow for a mostly clear sky. So, although tonight will not be an optimal night for radiational cooling due to the winds, it will be unseasonably cold with lows ranging from the teens in the outlying areas to the middle 20s for the New York City metro area. Combined with the winds, it will feel more like the teens and single digits across the forecast area late tonight into early Thursday morning.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/. Dry conditions continue into Thursday and Thursday night as the center of the high quickly moves over the area, then offshore thanks to zonal flow aloft. Continued cold advection early Thursday will mean well below normal high temperatures. Highs will be in the lower to middle 30s, some 10 to 15 degrees below normal for this time of year.

Return flow sets up on the back side of the high as it pushes offshore late Thursday. This will allow a warm front to lift well north of the area. Thursday night will see a non-diurnal temperature trend, with temperatures remaining steady or rising through the night, especially along the coast. Lows in the 20s to lower 30s will be reached early in the night. The return flow will also mean an increase in moisture aloft and therefore an increase in clouds.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Low pressure begins to take shape across the Southeast with high pressure centered well off to our northeast. Isentropic lift ahead of a warm front interacts with fairly shallow moisture for a chance of light rain or drizzle Friday morning, which could be freezing for a brief time NW of the city. Better chances of rainfall then occur in the afternoon as moisture deepens. Rain eventually becomes likely across the forecast area as Friday night progresses.

The center of the storm is expected to pass over or nearby the Tri-State Area Saturday morning into early afternoon. Increasing lift with deep moisture brings primarily rainfall that will be mainly moderate, but may be heavy at times. Rain chances drop off through Saturday night with the storm off to the east and a westerly flow developing in its wake. This will lead to a dry and breezy Sunday with high temperatures a few degrees above normal.

A high pressure ridge shifts through on Monday, keeping us dry. Another low pressure system then approaches from the Ohio Valley Monday night with increasing chances of rain or mixed PCPN into Tuesday. Will limit PoPs to no higher than 50% through Tuesday night as global deterministic models and ensembles disagree with the track of the storm. The track will also have implications on PCPN type. Went with the middle ground for this forecast, including simplified PCPN types this far out in time. High pressure would then follow for Wednesday with dry weather.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. High pressure builds toward the region overnight, overhead Thursday, then offshore in the evening.

VFR though most of the period with MVFR ceilings developing after 06Z Friday.

NW winds overnight with occasional gusts up to 20 kt through 09-10Z. Winds will continue to veer and lighten through the morning as the high approaches. A weak S-SE flow develops late in the afternoon into the early evening.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. Thursday night. Becoming MVFR after 06Z. Friday and Friday night. MVFR or lower in developing rain, especially Friday night. Saturday. IFR in rain, tapering off to scattered showers later in the day and at night. LLWS possible. Sunday. Generally VFR. West winds 10-15kt gusts 20-30kt. Sunday night-Monday. VFR.

MARINE. A few gusts to 35 kt are possible on the waters early this evening.

SCA remains in effect as winds increase across all waters tonight, thanks to increasing pressure gradient from a strengthening high building into the area from the west. 25 to 30 kt gusts are expected through about midnight tonight, but will diminish thereafter.

Waves build to 4 to 7 ft on the ocean waters and will also diminish overnight, with the eastern ocean zone hanging on to 5 ft waves for a few hours Thursday morning. SCA in effect through much of Thursday morning for eastern ocean zone because of this.

Winds and seas increase Friday and Friday night ahead of low pressure, which is expected to pass through or nearby during Saturday morning or early afternoon. SCA conds will be possible on the ocean by the end of the day Friday, eventually become probable Friday night and remain likely throughout Saturday. For the remaining waters, there is a chance that gusts do not reach 25 kt up to this point. Models disagree with the track of the center of the storm and how potent it will be, but best chances of gusts this high would be late Friday night/early Saturday morning should they occur.

Winds then pick up from the west on Saturday night and Sunday behind the storm. SCA conds likely for all waters, and potentially gales Sunday into Sunday night on the ocean, eastern LI Sound and the eastern LI bays. Winds and seas subside on Monday with the approach of a high pressure ridge, but possibly still within advisory criteria for a portion of the day.

HYDROLOGY. No hydrologic issues are expected with mainly snow this Friday.

1.00 to 1.50 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts are anticipated from Friday night through Saturday. Minor nuisance flooding will be possible with this event.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. There will be a chance of coastal flooding with the high tide cycle during Saturday morning. This will be due to onshore winds with an approaching storm combined with relatively high astronomical tides due to a nearly full moon. Minor coastal flooding will be possible primarily along the south shore back bays of Long Island, where even moderate coastal flooding is a possibility at least along the Nassau County bays. Minor flooding will also be possible along NY Harbor and parts of Western Long Island Sound. Confidence is not high at this point as the event is still a few days away, and shifts in storm's track and/or timing would change the flooding potential.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still operating at reduced power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for ANZ330-335-338-340-345-353-355. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ350.

SYNOPSIS . JC/JP NEAR TERM . DJ/16 SHORT TERM . DJ/16 LONG TERM . JC AVIATION . DS/DW MARINE . JC/JP/DW HYDROLOGY . JC/JP TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 16 mi59 min NNW 7 G 12 31°F 44°F1031.1 hPa
44069 17 mi53 min NW 16 G 19 33°F 39°F21°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 25 mi53 min NNW 9.9 G 14 31°F 42°F1030.9 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 27 mi38 min WNW 19 G 25 34°F 2 ft19°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 35 mi23 min W 14 G 19 33°F 32°F18°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 38 mi53 min N 20 G 27 33°F 44°F1033.5 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 49 mi33 min NW 25 G 31 37°F 50°F7 ft1032.1 hPa (+3.5)

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY10 mi27 minWNW 1110.00 miFair30°F15°F54%1032.1 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY15 mi27 minNW 13 G 1810.00 miFair31°F15°F52%1032.4 hPa
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT16 mi31 minNW 17 G 2810.00 miFair31°F15°F52%1032.2 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY23 mi30 minNW 810.00 miFair31°F15°F52%1032.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KISP

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN7N10N8N11N11N13N8NE7N5N7N5NW3W4W7SW7SW4SW6SW6W6W11W13
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1 day agoSW12SW11SW11SW9SW11SW10SW10SW9SW8SW6SW9SW4SW9SW8SW8SW9W5W7W9NW8NW12
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2 days agoSW5CalmCalmN4CalmE3S11
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Tide / Current Tables for Port Jefferson, Long Island Sound, New York (2)
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Port Jefferson
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:14 AM EST     Full Moon
Thu -- 04:47 AM EST     0.25 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:23 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 10:57 AM EST     7.52 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:24 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 04:59 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:23 PM EST     -0.42 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:28 PM EST     6.58 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.84.42.91.50.50.30.92.44.25.97.17.575.53.71.90.5-0.3-0.20.82.54.25.66.5

Tide / Current Tables for Stratford Shoal, Long Island Sound, New York
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Stratford Shoal
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:14 AM EST     Full Moon
Thu -- 04:35 AM EST     0.25 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:23 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 10:45 AM EST     7.52 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:24 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 04:59 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:11 PM EST     -0.42 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:16 PM EST     6.58 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.64.12.61.20.40.31.22.74.66.27.27.56.75.23.31.60.2-0.4-0.11.12.84.55.96.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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