Thursday, August5, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Poquott, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:51AMSunset 8:05PM Thursday August 5, 2021 1:04 AM EDT (05:04 UTC) Moonrise 2:40AMMoonset 6:28PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1054 Pm Edt Wed Aug 4 2021
Overnight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers with isolated tstms late this evening and early morning, then chance of rain late.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..SW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..SW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Sun..N winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Winds and seas may be higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1054 Pm Edt Wed Aug 4 2021
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A stationary front is expected to lie near eastern long island and southeast connecticut tonight into Thursday as waves of low pressure track along it. The front moves offshore Thursday night into Friday. High pressure southwest of the region then assumes control through the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Poquott, NY
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location: 40.95, -73.08     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 050306 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1106 PM EDT Wed Aug 4 2021

SYNOPSIS. Multiple waves of low pressure along a frontal boundary just offshore will impact mainly eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut overnight. The front will then slowly work east on Thursday as weak high pressure begins to build in from the west. A broad area of high pressure will set up over the area on Friday. A frontal system may pass Saturday night. A warming trend is likely next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/. Rain chances have been adjusted due to current radar, with much of the rain contained to southeast Connecticut and the Twin Forks of Long Island. Western areas such portions of the Lower Hudson Valley and northeast New Jersey will continue to be dry through late tonight.

The combination of a longwave trough from the Great Lakes south to the Gulf coast states will send a series of frontal waves near or just south and east of Long Island and eastern CT tonight into Thursday morning. This combined with a subtropical feed of moisture up the eastern seaboard and PW values near 2 inches raises the concern for heavy showers along with embedded thunderstorms, mainly from late tonight through around daybreak. The best potential for the heavy rain will be across far eastern LI and SE CT, where a Flash Flood Watch has been issued.

Global models have come into much better agreement with the 12Z cycle generally focus the axis of heavy rainfall across the watch area. However, the GGEM keeps the axis to the east. The CAM's have been struggling with the frontal wave location, with the 12Z NAMNest the farthest west and most aggressive with the rainfall, with 2 to 5 inches of rainfall extending as far west as New Haven and western Suffolk Counties. The FV3 is more in line with the watch area, and the HRRR has been varying west to east with the last several runs. While there is not a whole lot of instability, moist adiabatic lapse rates and jet exit region dynamics may be all it takes at this time of year to produce heavy rainfall. Feel fairly confident of 1 to 2 inches in the watch area, but the potential is there for more. At the very lest, expect some minor nuisance, poor drainage flooding.

Elsewhere, chances of showers will drop appreciably as one goes west, especially NYC and SW CT.

Overcast conditions and easterly winds will keep lows in the 60s, a few degrees below normal.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. Widespread morning showers will exit around or shortly after daybreak Thursday. However, with the upper trough lifting out across the area, a few lingering showers will be possible into the afternoon, especially across far easter LI and SE CT.

Weak high pressure builds in late Thursday into Thursday night with gradually clearing skies late into the day and through Thursday night.

Trended toward the cooler side of the guidance based on Wednesday's highs and the anticipated cloud cover. Highs will be in the 70s, approaching around 80 across the NY/NJ metro. Lows will be in the lower to mid 60s Thursday night with a few spots around the metro around 70.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The models were in good agreement in the extended, so the NBM was closely followed with local adjustments.

Rising heights will end pcpn chances on Fri so a dry day has been fcst. WAA from the west will produce more August-like wx, with temps warmer than those experienced in over a week. The warmer wx however appears to be locked in for a while now, with generally at or slightly abv normal temps over the weekend. There are chances for shwrs and tstms each aftn/eve over the weekend with the passage of a weak h5 trof.

The heat really builds next week as the subtropical ridge expands over the CONUS. The modeling has been really consistent on this. A warm front comes thru on Mon, with perhaps some shwrs and tstms invof the boundary. The NBM may be a bit too cool with highs due to the front being close, but this far out decided not to stray from the blended approach. It would not be surprising to see highs about 5 degrees warmer than currently fcst on Mon based on h85 temps approaching 18C. This pattern will set the stage for air mass tstms Tue and Wed with aftn/eve timing favored. The ECMWF suggests an upr low will provide a brief round of relief towards the end of next week, but the GFS disagrees. This is beyond the actual fcst period anyway, so until then a hot and humid Tue-Wed can be expected.

AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. A frontal boundary will remain offshore with several waves of low pressure passing along it.

VFR for NYC terminals and points north and west through 05Z. For eastern terminals such as KISP, KBDR, KGON; MVFR conditions will continue through the overnight hours. However, there may be some improvement at times through 03Z. Thereafter, moderate to heavy rain may affect KGON which may limit visibilities to 3 to 5 SM at times, mainly from 03Z-07Z.

E Winds will shift to the NE after 03Z, and then N around daybreak Thursday. Winds speeds will be 10 kt or less for the most part. There may be occasional gusts to 15 kt for coastal terminals, mainly from 06Z-12Z. Sea breezes could then affect coastal terminals late in the day Thursday.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty .

Amendments likely for changing flight categories.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. Thu night-Fri. VFR. Sat-Sun. Mainly VFR. Chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Monday. VFR

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE. Building seas ahead of an waves of low pressure along an offshore frontal boundary will bring SCA conditions to the ocean tonight. Seas look to range from 4 to 7 ft. These elevated seas should linger into Thursday night. The Small Craft Advisory is now in effect through 6am Friday. A few wind gusts up to 25 kt cannot be ruled out on the ocean tonight as well, although winds may stay closer to 20 kt or less. Elevated ocean seas may linger into Thursday night.

Seas on the ocean will gradually subside thru the day on Fri, with all waters falling blw sca lvls by Sat mrng. Winds on the protected waters will be blw 25kt. Winds and seas will mainly be blw sca lvls over the weekend, although waves could flirt with 5 ft at times on the ocean. Winds and seas are expected to remain blw sca lvls Mon and Tue.

HYDROLOGY. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts are forecast late tonight into Thursday morning across eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut. Minor urban and poor drainage flooding is possible with a localized risk of flash flooding. Amounts should drop off significantly to the west with only light amounts along and west of the Hudson River corridor.

No hydrologic impacts are expected Fri-Wed.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. There is a high rip current risk for all beaches on Thu, and a moderate risk for Fri. Even though there is no wind component on Thu, 5 ft waves are expected at all beaches, resulting in the high risk.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for CTZ008-012. NY . Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for NYZ079-081. High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM EDT Thursday through Thursday evening for NYZ075-080-081-178-179. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355.

SYNOPSIS . DJ/DW NEAR TERM . JP SHORT TERM . DW LONG TERM . JMC AVIATION . JP MARINE . JMC/DW HYDROLOGY . JMC/DW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 16 mi47 min ENE 5.1 G 8.9 66°F 73°F1019.1 hPa
44069 17 mi35 min NNE 12 G 16 66°F 80°F64°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 25 mi47 min ENE 7 G 9.9 65°F 73°F1020.5 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 26 mi65 min NNE 16 G 19 66°F 73°F1 ft
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 27 mi50 min NE 9.7 G 16 69°F 64°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 35 mi50 min ENE 14 G 18 69°F 64°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 38 mi47 min E 7 G 9.9 68°F 1020.1 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 49 mi25 min 16 G 21 70°F1018 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY10 mi69 minNNE 117.00 miLight Rain65°F64°F97%1019.1 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY15 mi69 minN 44.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist65°F62°F90%1019.2 hPa
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT16 mi73 minNE 910.00 miLight Rain68°F62°F81%1019.7 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY23 mi72 minNE 710.00 miOvercast66°F62°F87%1019.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KISP

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmE4E6SE8SE10SE8SE7E9NE5E6NE6NE6NE9NE8NE11N10
1 day agoCalmNW6N3NW3CalmN3N4N5NE3CalmNE4W4W45N5N4N3CalmS5S3CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoW3W4W4W4W6NW9NW9NW10N11N9NW13NW11N11NW11NW13
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Tide / Current Tables for Port Jefferson, Long Island Sound, New York (2)
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Port Jefferson
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:39 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:53 AM EDT     0.70 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:58 AM EDT     6.18 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:00 PM EDT     1.15 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:28 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:10 PM EDT     7.13 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.83.4210.71.22.23.54.85.86.25.84.93.72.51.51.11.52.645.46.67.16.8

Tide / Current Tables for Stratford Shoal, Long Island Sound, New York
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Stratford Shoal
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:39 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:41 AM EDT     0.70 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:46 AM EDT     6.18 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:48 PM EDT     1.15 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:28 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:58 PM EDT     7.13 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.53.11.80.90.71.42.53.85.166.25.64.63.52.31.41.21.72.94.35.76.77.16.7

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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