Monday, March8, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Hopatcong, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:19AMSunset 5:59PM Monday March 8, 2021 9:51 AM EST (14:51 UTC) Moonrise 4:45AMMoonset 1:56PM Illumination 25% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 419 Am Est Mon Mar 8 2021
Today..NW winds around 10 kt. Waves around 1 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less this evening, then 1 to 2 ft.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
ANZ300 419 Am Est Mon Mar 8 2021
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pres will build over the waters today, then drift to the S tonight as a warm front approaches. The front will lift through Tue morning, followed by a cold front Tue evening. High pres will again build over the waters later Tue night into Wed morning, then pass E Wed afternoon into Thu. A cold front will approach on Fri.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hopatcong , NJ
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location: 40.96, -74.61     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 081431 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 931 AM EST Mon Mar 8 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will build eastward from the Great Lakes through tonight. A weak surface low will move across Quebec, dragging a weak backdoor cold front through the northern half of the area Tuesday afternoon. High pressure will build across the Northeast Wednesday as low pressure moves across the Midwest. This low will bring a cold front to our region Friday into Saturday with high pressure building eastward from the Great Lakes through the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. For the morning update, raised high temperatures in most areas by a couple of degrees. Also lowered dew points this afternoon as BUFKIT soundings support good mixing up to 900 mb which combined with westerly winds should yield dry conditions and humidity values falling to 30% or lower in much of the region. Winds will remain light enough to preclude fire weather concerns. Otherwise, previous discussion remains valid .

The persistent baroclinic trough across eastern Canada will finally begin to pull eastward through today. Meanwhile, a deamplifying ridge builds eastward in its wake from the Midwest and Ontario across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast through the overnight period. A quick shortwave perturbation ejects out of the Canadian Prairie Provinces into the Great Lakes as the ridge axis shifts eastward. This shunts the surface high extending across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys more towards the Southeast. Warm return flow gradually begins to take shape today, but the weak flow will tend to stay more west to west southwesterly from 5 to 10 mph as the surface high shifts towards the Southeast. Given the trend towards a more robust shortwave moving out of the Great Lakes and across the Northeast tomorrow, it is not surprising that little to no change in 500 mb heights is realized today and tonight compared to what was seen across the Midwest over the weekend.

At the surface, more of a persistence forecast today with highs similar to Sunday, though a few degrees warmer at some locations, especially across Delaware and Maryland. Abundant sunshine once again with a few mid-level clouds building across Pennsylvania and New Jersey by this evening and into tonight as weak low pressure moves across the Northern Great Lakes, trailing a cold front across upstate New York. Dew points and surface RH values will also trend upwards into this evening, which, when combined with the cloud cover, will result in a warmer night tonight. Most locations should remain near or above freezing save for the Poconos and portions of northwestern New Jersey.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. Long awaited warm up will start in the short term period (continuing into the long term). No significant changes from the previous forecast through this period.

Tuesday is still expected to be around 10 degrees above normal, with highs in the 50s to lower 60s. This is in spite of the fact that some operational models depict a backdoor surface cold front in the region. At the mid levels, a short wave ridge should approach the region by late in the day.

As mentioned by the previous shift, models continue to depict onshore flow (southeasterly and southerly) for much of the day on Wednesday. Consequently, coastal areas will likely not get into the 60s, and could be several degrees lower than what they see on Tuesday. For area further inland though, the deep subsidence should help temperatures to get into the lower to mid 60s for much of the region.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Overview: Tranquil weather continues through Thursday. A cold front approaching the region Friday through early Saturday could bring the next chance for precipitation to the region.

Details:

Thursday . With the center of the surface high off shore, low level southwesterly flow should further enhance the warming trend. Expect the entire region to get into the 60s, and some areas, primarily in Delmarva and the urban corridor could even get close to 70.

Friday and Friday night . The slightly slower trend for the timing of the cold front continued with the latest model runs, so now expect the front to cross through the region Friday into Friday night. As long as this slower trend verifies, the front should be late enough that during the day Friday most of the region should get into the 60s or even lower 70s. At the same time the front arrives, a mid level short wave trough will also slide southeast as it fills and weakens through this period. Still appears that any precipitation will be closely tied with the front and should be light and mostly within the warm sector (in other words, mostly rain). So I don't anticipate any significant impacts from the precipitation.

Saturday and Sunday . The front may slow or even stall as it crosses our region, so it remains uncertain if the front will be completely south of our region by the day time on Saturday. Consequently, the temperatures on Saturday remain uncertain, but for now, continued the forecast with highs near normal. With the latest model run, most operational models do have the front well to our south by Sunday. However, given the poor run-to-run consistency of how long and where this front will stall, stayed close to the previous forecast with continued slight chance PoPs through the weekend.

AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today and tonight . VFR with clear skies through the afternoon before high clouds build into the region from the northwest overnight. Northwest winds turning to the southwest tonight from 5 to 10 knots. High confidence.

Outlook .

Tuesday . VFR conditions expected. Southwesterly wind shifting to westerly by mid day, becoming light and variable by Tuesday night. Wind speeds should be 5 to 10 kt during the day with less than 5 kt Tuesday night. High confidence.

Wednesday . VFR conditions expected through the day. There is a small chance that MVFR ceilings could develop near the coast, including KACY on Wednesday night. Southeasterly wind 5 to 15 kt. Moderate confidence on most aspects of the forecast, but low confidence on the potential for lower ceilings Wednesday night.

Thursday . VFR conditions expected. Southwesterly wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. High confidence.

Friday . Mostly VFR conditions expected, though some brief visibility and ceiling restrictions are possible primarily late Friday through Friday night with a slight chance of rain showers. Southwesterly wind 5 to 15 kt during the day, becoming northwesterly 5 to 10 kt Friday night. Low confidence on visibility and ceiling restrictions, moderate confidence on winds.

MARINE. Today and tonight . Generally sub-advisory conditions are expected on the waters with northwest winds from 5 to 10 knots today turning southwesterly tonight. A few gusts may exceed 20 knots into Tuesday morning, though they should remain below SCA criteria. Seas ranging from 1 to 3 feet with a choppy 3 to 4 second period at times.

Outlook .

Tuesday through Wednesday . Winds and seas should stay below SCA criteria.

Thursday . Wind gusts near 25 kt and seas 5 to 6 ft are possible, primarily on the Atlantic coastal waters.

Friday . Winds and seas should stay below SCA criteria.

FIRE WEATHER. A prolonged dry period will remain in place over the region, so there will be continued monitoring for fire weather potential this week. Winds appear low enough to preclude any fire weather concerns through at least Wednesday. Dry conditions are expected today and Tuesday with RH levels dropping to near 30 % for many areas. Winds should mostly be light enough to preclude fire weather concerns. However, on Tuesday, gusts near 20 mph will be possible for some areas, primarily near the coast. Through the rest of the week, we should see temperatures above normal, but minimum RH values should also recover slightly (mostly near or above 40%). Breezy southwesterly winds are possible Thursday.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . None.

Synopsis . Davis Near Term . Davis/O'Brien Short Term . Johnson Long Term . Johnson Aviation . Davis/Johnson Marine . Davis/Johnson Fire Weather . WFO PHI


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MHRN6 32 mi51 min NW 8.9 G 9.9
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 33 mi51 min 28°F 1031.9 hPa (+1.5)
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 36 mi51 min 28°F 38°F1032.3 hPa (+1.6)
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 36 mi51 min NNW 8 G 12 28°F 1032 hPa (+1.6)
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 46 mi51 min N 6 G 8.9 27°F 1032.6 hPa (+1.6)
44022 - Execution Rocks 47 mi51 min N 7.8 G 12 28°F 11°F
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 47 mi51 min N 8.9 G 14 28°F 1032.7 hPa (+1.4)

Wind History for Bergen Point West Reach, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Andover, Aeroflex-Andover Airport, NJ8 mi57 minNNW 7 mi27°F12°F53%1032.3 hPa
Morristown Municipal, NJ15 mi66 minN 7 G 1310.00 miClear30°F16°F55%1032.2 hPa
Sussex, Sussex Airport, NJ17 mi58 minNE 610.00 miFair27°F12°F53%1031.4 hPa
Caldwell, Essex County Airport, NJ18 mi58 minNW 910.00 miFair30°F7°F38%1032.7 hPa
Somerville, Somerset Airport, NJ23 mi58 minNNW 710.00 miFair29°F12°F49%1032.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for K12N

Wind History from 12N (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr56--534NW754CalmN5N64CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW6N7
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64NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW6N3Calm33CalmCalmCalmCalmN6
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Tide / Current Tables for Belleville, Passaic River, New Jersey
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Belleville
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:43 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:58 AM EST     5.58 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:19 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:07 AM EST     0.00 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:54 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:41 PM EST     4.60 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:55 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 11:20 PM EST     0.20 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.73.34.65.35.65.34.73.931.90.700.51.7344.54.64.23.62.92.11.10.3

Tide / Current Tables for Belleville, Passaic River, New Jersey (2)
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Belleville
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:43 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:02 AM EST     5.68 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:19 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:20 AM EST     0.13 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:54 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:43 PM EST     4.75 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:55 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 11:31 PM EST     0.30 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.63.24.45.35.75.44.73.82.81.80.80.20.41.62.83.94.64.74.33.62.71.91.10.4

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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