Thursday, September16, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Hopatcong, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:39AMSunset 7:07PM Thursday September 16, 2021 1:52 PM EDT (17:52 UTC) Moonrise 5:11PMMoonset 1:28AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 125 Pm Edt Thu Sep 16 2021
This afternoon..NE winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Isolated tstms. Scattered showers.
Tonight..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft after midnight. Chance of showers.
Fri..E winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers.
Fri night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers in the evening.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Winds and waves may be higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 125 Pm Edt Thu Sep 16 2021
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A front remains nearly stationary nearby, and gradually dissipates into Friday. Low pressure well south of long island on Friday will be moving northeast within the western atlantic through the weekend, passing well southeast of long island. Meanwhile, a weakening cold front approaches the local waters Saturday with high pressure eventually taking over for the latter half of the weekend into early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hopatcong , NJ
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location: 40.96, -74.61     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 161737 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 137 PM EDT Thu Sep 16 2021

SYNOPSIS. A cold front moved into our region last night. Low pressure centered off the coast of the Carolinas early this morning is forecast to move slowly to the north today and Friday before accelerating northeastward over the weekend. A cold front approaching from the northwest is expected to pass through our region on Saturday night, followed by high pressure for the period from Sunday through Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. A cold front will remain stalled over the area today, as high Pressure attempts to build in from the northeast, but will be opposed by a deepening coastal low to our south. Per usual in these setups the thermal contrast along the boundary will begin to washout, and associated along-boundary confluence will also weaken. However, abundant moisture (PWATs around 1.75 inches) will be drawn northwestward around the flank of the developing coastal low into our area later today. This moisture and associated instability should be sufficient for the development of at least scattered showers/thunderstorms along and south of the boundary this afternoon (essentially along and south of I-95). The main threat with any storms would be locally heavy rainfall given the fairly most environment, middling storm motion (propagation speeds around 15- 20kts), and largely stationary forcing mechanism. Consequently retained the mention of heavy rain with this afternoon's storms, but confidence in exact placement of convection/heavy rainfall remains low.

Given the weak overall forcing suspect this activity will wane fairly quickly after sunset and be largely done by this evening. With a moist low-lvl airmass in place and increasing onshore flow suspect stratus will fill in tonight, and some fog may advect in from the NE over the northern third or so of the area. Not confident on how dense/widespread any fog will be given decent momentum in the BL.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. Surface low pressure is forecast to be located off Cape Hatteras on Friday morning. The low is expected to drift north to northeastward on Friday and Friday night, before picking up speed and moving away to the northeast and farther out to sea on Saturday and Saturday night.

The circulation around the low will result in a northeast wind in our region on Friday. Initially, the flow is expected to bring clouds and scattered showers. However, some dry air may begin to wrap around the low and into parts of our area as the day progresses. High temperatures are anticipated to favor the 75 to 80 degree range.

Additional dry air is expected to arrive on Friday night with the sky becoming partly cloudy. Lows should be mostly in the 60s with a light north wind.

Scattered clouds are forecast for Saturday. Temperatures will likely be warm with highs mainly in the lower 80s. Conditions are expected to remain somewhat humid with dew point readings still in the middle and upper 60s. There is a low or slight chance of showers in the afternoon in our northwestern counties, ahead of an approaching cold front.

A mid level short wave trough is forecast to pass over eastern New York and New England on Saturday night and it should pull a cold front through our region at that time. There is anticipated to be only limited moisture associated with the features, so we are not expecting much of a chance of precipitation at that time. Low temperatures on Saturday night will likely be in the 60s with dew point values beginning to lower.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Surface high pressure is expected to extend from the Great Lakes up into Quebec on Sunday morning. The center of the air mass is forecast to slide east southeastward, stalling over the coastal waters of New England on Monday and Tuesday, before moving farther out to sea on Wednesday.

The high will likely bring dry weather and slightly above normal temperatures to our region for the period from Sunday through Wednesday.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

This afternoon . Strato Cu with cigs hovering between low VFR and high end MVFR. There will also be some showers and thunderstorms around mainly near and south of PHL and these could bring locally reduced visbys to IFR. Winds E/NE 5 to 10 knots with a few gusts up to 15 knots possible.

Tonight . Any showers/storms quickly ending early this evening but expect cigs to lower to MVFR and then IFR by late evening through tonight. Winds generally east 5 to 8 knots. Moderate confidence.

Friday . IFR cigs to start the day with cigs lifting to MVFR by early afternoon. There will also be some showers around. E/NE winds around 5 to 10 knots. Moderate confidence.

Outlook .

Saturday . Mainly VFR. North to northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. High confidence.

Sunday . Mainly VFR. North wind around 10 knots. High confidence.

Monday . Mainly VFR. Northeast to southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. High confidence.

MARINE. Sub-SCA conditions are expected through the day today, however seas will likely increase to 5-6 ft tonight into early Friday morning. Consequently have issued an SCA starting at midnight (tonight) for the ocean waters. Sub-SCA conditions are expected for Delaware Bay.

Outlook .

Friday and Friday night . A Small Craft Advisory will be in effect for our ocean waters for wave heights of 5 to 6 feet due to an offshore low. Northeast wind 15 to 20 knots, becoming north.

Saturday . Wave heights on our ocean waters should remain around 5 to 6 feet. North to northeast wind 10 to 15 knots.

Sunday and Monday . No marine headlines are anticipated.

Rip Currents .

A moderate risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents is expected today. Winds are expected to shift to southeasterly and eventually easterly, increasing in speed to 10 to 15 MPH by the afternoon. A medium period southeast to east swell is likely and breaking waves should be 1 to 2 feet.

An elevated rip risk is expected to continue on Friday as onshore flow continues. Winds will shift to northeasterly around 10 to 20 mph. At this point we are expecting a moderate risk for rip currents, but will have to monitor this closely as if the forecast for either waves or wind speeds increases, this could be a high risk.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ450>455.

Synopsis . Iovino Near Term . Carr/Fitzsimmons Short Term . Iovino Long Term . Iovino Aviation . Carr/Fitzsimmons/Iovino Marine . Carr/Iovino


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MHRN6 32 mi59 min ENE 9.9 G 13
BGNN6 33 mi59 min 76°F 76°F1023.1 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 36 mi59 min 77°F 73°F1023.5 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 36 mi59 min NE 15 G 17 74°F 1023 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 46 mi59 min ENE 8.9 G 12 75°F 1024.3 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 47 mi38 min E 12 G 18 73°F 67°F
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 47 mi59 min ENE 7 G 12 75°F 74°F1023.3 hPa

Wind History for Bergen Point West Reach, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Andover, Aeroflex-Andover Airport, NJ8 mi59 minVar 5 mi73°F65°F76%1023.6 hPa
Morristown Municipal, NJ15 mi63 minENE 910.00 miOvercast77°F64°F65%1023.7 hPa
Sussex, Sussex Airport, NJ17 mi60 minNNE 710.00 miOvercast72°F65°F79%1024.1 hPa
Caldwell, Essex County Airport, NJ18 mi60 minENE 710.00 miOvercast77°F61°F58%1024 hPa
Somerville, Somerset Airport, NJ23 mi60 minENE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F65°F62%1022.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for K12N

Wind History from 12N (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS84S8
G16
S4CalmCalmN5SW9
G17
CalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmNE45Calm3--NE65665
1 day ago434S4Calm544SW534CalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmS3SW3Calm3SW6SW5S7
2 days ago3N7
G17
44CalmCalm3NE34SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmN3Calm4

Tide / Current Tables for Belleville, Passaic River, New Jersey
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Belleville
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:26 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:02 AM EDT     5.13 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:51 AM EDT     0.70 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:08 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:32 PM EDT     6.32 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.51.42.94.14.95.14.94.33.62.921.10.71.534.65.76.26.35.84.93.92.81.5

Tide / Current Tables for Belleville, Passaic River, New Jersey (2)
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Belleville
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:26 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:07 AM EDT     5.24 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:01 PM EDT     0.78 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:08 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:33 PM EDT     6.44 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.61.32.744.85.25.14.43.52.71.91.10.81.42.94.45.66.36.45.94.93.82.71.5

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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