Saturday, February27, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Baiting Hollow, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:26AMSunset 5:41PM Saturday February 27, 2021 4:17 AM EST (09:17 UTC) Moonrise 7:10PMMoonset 8:01AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1011 Pm Est Fri Feb 26 2021
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Rain likely late.
Sat..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming E with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Rain in the afternoon.
Sun night..E winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Chance of flurries.
Tue..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tue night..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Wed night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
ANZ300 1011 Pm Est Fri Feb 26 2021
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure affects the waters late tonight into Saturday, with another frontal system moving through the waters Sunday into Monday. A strong cold front moves through the waters Monday evening, with polar high pressure building south of the water on Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Baiting Hollow, NY
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location: 40.97, -72.74     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 270451 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1151 PM EST Fri Feb 26 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure continues to retreat to the east tonight, while a frontal system approaches from the southwest. The system will pass through the area on Saturday. Weak low pressure passes nearby to the south Sunday into Sunday night. A cold front then approaches on Monday and passes through during the afternoon to evening hours. High pressure then returns for Tuesday. Low pressure then passes to our south Wednesday into Wednesday night, otherwise high pressure remains in control through Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/. Leading edge of rain has worked across southern NJ and SE PA, working NE. Still on track to move into the NYC/NJ metro toward 2 AM, then overspreading the remainder of the area by 5 AM. Minor adjustments made with this update. Temperatures will pretty stay steady, or slowly rise from this point.

A wintry mix of snow and sleet is possible at the onset across the interior. Bufkit does hint at a real brief window for fzra before the total changeover to rain on across this area. A brief hour of pcpn mixed with fzra was therefore included for the nwrn portion of the county where confidence is highest. Not enough coverage for an advy, so any fzra will need to be covered with an sps. No advy for snowfall as well, with amounts across the cwa expected to be less than an inch attm. Low rates while the airmass supports snow is expected to be a limiting factor. All areas are expected to be all rain by 15z, with the rain tapering off in the aft from w to e as a weak low passes and mid lvl dry air currently over TX surges in. The models were in agreement wrt timing, so the 15z sref was used for pops. A combination of the NBM and CONSALL was used for temps.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/. Aftn convection centered around AR on Sat is progged to spawn the next sys that will impact the cwa. After some decreasing cloudiness in the eve, clouds associated with the convective complex may begin to reach the cwa. High clouds entrained in the subtropical Pacific jet should be the first to get here after midnight. Otherwise, dry wx is expected attm with the NBM used for temps.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. A weak low center approaches us on Sunday, passing over or just south of the forecast area Sunday night. This will bring rain, mainly in the afternoon, but rain chances will linger into the night with a surface trough nearby. High temperatures near normal.

Drying on Monday with above normal temperatures as a westerly flow sets up ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front passes through dry either late in the afternoon or in the evening. Breezy conditions develop, and NW winds will likely gust through the night as the strongest cold advection sets in. An upper trough axis and shortwave will be passing through as well Monday night. Not much moisture depicted by the models during this time, but will leave in a chance of flurries.

Deep-layered ridging then occurs for Tuesday with dry conditions and below normal temperatures. ECMWF/GFSv16/GDPS show low pressure passing well to our south during the Wednesday to Wednesday night period. Overall, a drier trend from 24 hours ago, but will leave in low chances of rain for the period, focused toward the southern zones. High pressure otherwise dominates through Thursday with dry weather and above normal high temperatures. Low confidence forecast for Friday, but for now will go with slight chance PoPs with the potential of a cold front or wave of low pressure brining PCPN to the area.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. High pressure will continue to retreat to the east overnight, while a frontal system approaches from the SW. The system will move across the area on Saturday.

VFR early, lowering to MVFR overnight and then IFR by mid to late morning Saturday. Mainly rain will coincide with these lowering flight categories, however, there could be a 2 to 3 hour window at KSWF of mixed precipitation. VFR conditions return toward 00Z Sunday.

SE winds less than 10 kt will back to the E/SE, increasing to around 10 kt toward daybreak at the coast. A frontal wave will move across the area in the afternoon with winds briefly going and light and variable before becoming W/SW at 5 to 10 kt from 21Z to 22Z. Winds then veer to the WNW in Saturday evening.

. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty .

Timing of IFR may be off 1-2 hours. Possible southerly LLWS after 12Z, ending from west to east by 21Z.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. Late Saturday Night. VFR. Sunday. Mainly VFR in the morning. MVFR or lower with a chance of rain in the afternoon and at night. Monday. VFR. W wind G20-25kt in aft. NW wind G30-35kt possible eve and night. Tuesday. VFR. NW wind G20-25kt possible. Wednesday. Low chance of MVFR in rain.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE. Winds and seas will remain blw sca lvls tngt. Winds and waves pick up on Sat. A sca remains in effect on the ocean.

SE swells will likely keep ocean seas at SCA levels through Sunday night and potentially for all of Monday as well. Westerly winds increase through the day Monday ahead of a cold front. The strongest cold air advection and gusts occur during Monday night behind the front's passage. Gale force gusts are looking more likely during the night for some, if not all of the waters during the night and may last into a part of Tuesday morning. Thereafter, high pressure then settles in with more tranquil conditions for Tuesday Night. Low pressure is expected to pass well to the south on Wednesday into Wednesday night. While winds might not be much of a concern, there is still a chance that a swell pushes wave heights into advisory criteria on the ocean.

HYDROLOGY. No hydrologic impacts are anticipated through Wednesday.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 7 PM EST Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.



SYNOPSIS . JMC/JC NEAR TERM . JMC/DW SHORT TERM . JMC LONG TERM . JC AVIATION . DW MARINE . JMC/JC HYDROLOGY . JMC/JC


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 23 mi47 min SSE 8 G 12 38°F 38°F1030.4 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 27 mi47 min ESE 5.1 G 8 37°F 38°F1029 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 41 mi27 min SE 12 G 14 42°F 41°F2 ft1030 hPa34°F
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 42 mi22 min SE 12 G 14 40°F 1027.2 hPa9°F
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 42 mi47 min 40°F 39°F1030.4 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 44 mi47 min 39°F 1030.3 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Gabreski Airport, NY11 mi24 minESE 610.00 miOvercast40°F32°F73%1029.5 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY12 mi21 minESE 510.00 miLight Rain41°F31°F67%1028.8 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY22 mi21 minESE 710.00 miLight Rain39°F34°F82%1028.1 hPa
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT23 mi24 minESE 79.00 miLight Rain38°F31°F76%1029 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFOK

Wind History from FOK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3CalmS7S8S9S7SW3S5S3S3SE3S5SE4S4SE5SE6SE5SE3E6
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Tide / Current Tables for Northville, Long Island Sound, New York
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Northville
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Sat -- 03:19 AM EST     Full Moon
Sat -- 04:51 AM EST     -0.41 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:27 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:00 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 10:59 AM EST     6.05 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:17 PM EST     -0.62 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:39 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:09 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:23 PM EST     5.91 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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53.72.20.9-0.1-0.40.21.434.55.66.15.64.42.81.30.1-0.6-0.40.62.23.85.15.8

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:03 AM EST     -1.71 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 03:19 AM EST     Full Moon
Sat -- 03:25 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:04 AM EST     1.80 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 06:26 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:59 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 09:16 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 12:33 PM EST     -1.88 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 04:01 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:39 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:08 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:29 PM EST     1.61 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 09:35 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.7-1.5-1-0.30.51.41.81.61.10.3-0.7-1.4-1.8-1.8-1.4-0.8-00.91.51.61.20.5-0.4-1.2

Weather Map
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.