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Marine Weather and Tides Baiting Hollow, NY Version 3.4

NOTICE 1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17. 1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

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Sunrise 6:26AM

Sunset 5:41PM

Saturday February 27, 2021 4:17 AM EST (09:17 UTC)

Moonrise 7:10PM

Moonset 8:01AM

Illumination 100%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Baiting Hollow, NY

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Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 270451 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1151 PM EST Fri Feb 26 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure continues to retreat to the east tonight, while a frontal system approaches from the southwest. The system will pass through the area on Saturday. Weak low pressure passes nearby to the south Sunday into Sunday night. A cold front then approaches on Monday and passes through during the afternoon to evening hours. High pressure then returns for Tuesday. Low pressure then passes to our south Wednesday into Wednesday night, otherwise high pressure remains in control through Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/. Leading edge of rain has worked across southern NJ and SE PA, working NE. Still on track to move into the NYC/NJ metro toward 2 AM, then overspreading the remainder of the area by 5 AM. Minor adjustments made with this update. Temperatures will pretty stay steady, or slowly rise from this point.

A wintry mix of snow and sleet is possible at the onset across the interior. Bufkit does hint at a real brief window for fzra before the total changeover to rain on across this area. A brief hour of pcpn mixed with fzra was therefore included for the nwrn portion of the county where confidence is highest. Not enough coverage for an advy, so any fzra will need to be covered with an sps. No advy for snowfall as well, with amounts across the cwa expected to be less than an inch attm. Low rates while the airmass supports snow is expected to be a limiting factor. All areas are expected to be all rain by 15z, with the rain tapering off in the aft from w to e as a weak low passes and mid lvl dry air currently over TX surges in. The models were in agreement wrt timing, so the 15z sref was used for pops. A combination of the NBM and CONSALL was used for temps.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/. Aftn convection centered around AR on Sat is progged to spawn the next sys that will impact the cwa. After some decreasing cloudiness in the eve, clouds associated with the convective complex may begin to reach the cwa. High clouds entrained in the subtropical Pacific jet should be the first to get here after midnight. Otherwise, dry wx is expected attm with the NBM used for temps.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. A weak low center approaches us on Sunday, passing over or just south of the forecast area Sunday night. This will bring rain, mainly in the afternoon, but rain chances will linger into the night with a surface trough nearby. High temperatures near normal.

Drying on Monday with above normal temperatures as a westerly flow sets up ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front passes through dry either late in the afternoon or in the evening. Breezy conditions develop, and NW winds will likely gust through the night as the strongest cold advection sets in. An upper trough axis and shortwave will be passing through as well Monday night. Not much moisture depicted by the models during this time, but will leave in a chance of flurries.

Deep-layered ridging then occurs for Tuesday with dry conditions and below normal temperatures. ECMWF/GFSv16/GDPS show low pressure passing well to our south during the Wednesday to Wednesday night period. Overall, a drier trend from 24 hours ago, but will leave in low chances of rain for the period, focused toward the southern zones. High pressure otherwise dominates through Thursday with dry weather and above normal high temperatures. Low confidence forecast for Friday, but for now will go with slight chance PoPs with the potential of a cold front or wave of low pressure brining PCPN to the area.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. High pressure will continue to retreat to the east overnight, while a frontal system approaches from the SW. The system will move across the area on Saturday.

VFR early, lowering to MVFR overnight and then IFR by mid to late morning Saturday. Mainly rain will coincide with these lowering flight categories, however, there could be a 2 to 3 hour window at KSWF of mixed precipitation. VFR conditions return toward 00Z Sunday.

SE winds less than 10 kt will back to the E/SE, increasing to around 10 kt toward daybreak at the coast. A frontal wave will move across the area in the afternoon with winds briefly going and light and variable before becoming W/SW at 5 to 10 kt from 21Z to 22Z. Winds then veer to the WNW in Saturday evening.

. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty .

Timing of IFR may be off 1-2 hours. Possible southerly LLWS after 12Z, ending from west to east by 21Z.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. Late Saturday Night. VFR. Sunday. Mainly VFR in the morning. MVFR or lower with a chance of rain in the afternoon and at night. Monday. VFR. W wind G20-25kt in aft. NW wind G30-35kt possible eve and night. Tuesday. VFR. NW wind G20-25kt possible. Wednesday. Low chance of MVFR in rain.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE. Winds and seas will remain blw sca lvls tngt. Winds and waves pick up on Sat. A sca remains in effect on the ocean.

SE swells will likely keep ocean seas at SCA levels through Sunday night and potentially for all of Monday as well. Westerly winds increase through the day Monday ahead of a cold front. The strongest cold air advection and gusts occur during Monday night behind the front's passage. Gale force gusts are looking more likely during the night for some, if not all of the waters during the night and may last into a part of Tuesday morning. Thereafter, high pressure then settles in with more tranquil conditions for Tuesday Night. Low pressure is expected to pass well to the south on Wednesday into Wednesday night. While winds might not be much of a concern, there is still a chance that a swell pushes wave heights into advisory criteria on the ocean.

HYDROLOGY. No hydrologic impacts are anticipated through Wednesday.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 7 PM EST Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.



SYNOPSIS . JMC/JC NEAR TERM . JMC/DW SHORT TERM . JMC LONG TERM . JC AVIATION . DW MARINE . JMC/JC HYDROLOGY . JMC/JC

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT	23 mi	47 min	SSE 8 G 12	38°F	38°F		1030.4 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT	27 mi	47 min	ESE 5.1 G 8	37°F	38°F		1029 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY	41 mi	27 min	SE 12 G 14	42°F	41°F	2 ft	1030 hPa	34°F
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather	42 mi	22 min	SE 12 G 14	40°F			1027.2 hPa	9°F
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY	42 mi	47 min		40°F	39°F		1030.4 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT	44 mi	47 min		39°F			1030.3 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT

(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help

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Last 24hr

N6

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S7 G11

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SE6 G9

SE7 G11

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NW17 G21

N20 G28

N13 G21

N13 G17

N21

N17 G24

NW18

N14 G20

NW12 G17

NW13 G20

NW17 G21

NW17 G23

NW16 G20

NW12 G16

NW10 G15

NW8 G12

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N10 G17

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2 days ago

SW4

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SW9 G13

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SW10 G13

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SW10 G13

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NW9 G15

NW12 G16

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
The Gabreski Airport, NY	11 mi	24 min	ESE 6	10.00 mi	Overcast	40°F	32°F	73%	1029.5 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY	12 mi	21 min	ESE 5	10.00 mi	Light Rain	41°F	31°F	67%	1028.8 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY	22 mi	21 min	ESE 7	10.00 mi	Light Rain	39°F	34°F	82%	1028.1 hPa
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT	23 mi	24 min	ESE 7	9.00 mi	Light Rain	38°F	31°F	76%	1029 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFOK

Wind History from FOK (wind in knots)

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Last 24hr

Calm

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3

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S7

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SW3

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1 day ago

NW16 G27

NW18 G26

NW15 G26

NW18 G27

NW19 G25

NW19 G27

NW14

NW11 G22

NW12 G22

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NW12 G19

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2 days ago

W4

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SW12 G18

S15 G23

S14 G24

S13 G19

S10 G19

SW10

SW12 G18

SW10 G16

SW8 G17

W21 G27

SW9

W12

W10

W9

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Tide / Current Tables for Northville, Long Island Sound, New York

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Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Ground Weather Radar Station

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