Wednesday, August21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wading River, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:06AMSunset 7:43PM Wednesday August 21, 2019 8:33 PM EDT (00:33 UTC) Moonrise 10:55PMMoonset 11:43AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 412 Pm Edt Wed Aug 21 2019
.severe Thunderstorm watch 609 in effect until 9 pm edt this evening...
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft. Scattered showers and tstms until early morning.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..SW winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of tstms in the evening. Chance of showers.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the morning.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..E winds around 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..E winds around 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 412 Pm Edt Wed Aug 21 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front will slowly approach the waters through Thursday, passing Thursday night. High pressure builds in behind the front through the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wading River, NY
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location: 40.97, -72.83     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 220012
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
812 pm edt Wed aug 21 2019

Synopsis
A trough of low pressure will be in the area this evening. A
cold front will then slowly approach through Thursday. The
front moves across and southeast of the region Thursday night.

The cold front will move farther southeast of the region Friday
into the weekend as high pressure builds in from the north. Weak
low pressure areas and a frontal system approach early into the
middle next week.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
Showers and thunderstorms continue moving through portions of
the region early this evening. Mid level shortwave lift will
shift through and interact with capes of 2000-3000 j kg with the
best lift exiting east by midnight. The biggest threat with
severe storms would be with wind gusts. There is also at least a
chance of flash flooding where the heaviest storms concentrate.

The precipitation is expected to wind down from west to east
later this evening and there could be some patchy fog late with
a residual moist environment. Muggy overnight with low
temperatures above normal.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through Thursday night
A cold front approaches on Thursday and passes through Thursday
evening. A pre-frontal trough probably sets up in the afternoon
across part of the tri-state area ahead of the cold front. This
along with shortwave lift and sufficient CAPE will bring shower
and thunderstorm chances mainly during the afternoon and
evening hours. Shear profiles support the potential of at least
strong storms.

Regarding temperatures and heat indices, 850mb temps are
forecast to be around 17c afternoon. Surface winds will be
mostly sw, and perhaps even more westerly away from the coast.

This would normally allow surface dewpoints to lower a few
degrees in the afternoon, however with the presence of a pre-
frontal trough and approaching cold front, this could be offset
somewhat.

There is a moderate rip current risk for Thursday.

Long term Friday through Wednesday
An upper level trough lifts north of the region on Friday. Upper
level ridging moves into the region this weekend and continue into
early next week. This is fairly consistent between GFS and canadian
models but ECMWF model breaks off a piece of the trough and keeps it
near region as weak upper level low for the weekend. For next week,
the ridge eventually moves east of the region with a weak trough
approaching from the west.

At the surface, a cold front will continue moving southeast of
long island Friday and into the weekend. GFS and canadian
models likewise show a more steady front movement southeast of long
island while ECMWF shows a little slower movement and closer
proximity of low pressure to the region along the front.

For weather, other than some left over early morning showers on
Friday, dry conditions are forecast for Friday and much of the
weekend. Depending on how low pressure trends along the front to the
south and a frontal system approaching from the west going into
early to middle of next week, there could be a return to rain in the
forecast. Currently, it seems this scenario is more of a low end
possibility, so limited rain to slight chance, with mainly dry
conditions anticipated.

Temperatures overall forecast to be slightly below normal.

Aviation 00z Thursday through Monday
A trough of low pressure moves through the region overnight
ahead of an approaching cold front. Any showers and
thunderstorms in the region will be ending this evening. Local
MVFR to ifr is likely with the storms. However, do not expect
any of the activity to affect the terminals, so not included in
the forecast. There is a chance of MVFR stratus toward Thursday
morning, mainly at the coastal terminals.

There will again be a chance of showers and thunderstorms
Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening as the cold front moves
through the area Thursday evening. With the low chances and low
confidence of any activity at the terminals, no mention was
made in the forecast.

Outside of variable winds in the thunderstorms winds will be
south to southwest less than 10 kt. Thursday winds will be more
sw to W around 10 kt with occasional gusts 15 to 20 kt. A sea
breeze is likely in the afternoon.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 22 mi64 min SW 15 G 17 78°F 78°F1010.3 hPa
44069 23 mi64 min NW 14 G 27 74°F 81°F71°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 23 mi64 min SW 11 G 17 78°F 78°F1010.2 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 46 mi44 min SSW 16 G 21 79°F 4 ft1012 hPa75°F
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 46 mi49 min SW 15 G 17 75°F 72°F
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 46 mi64 min 77°F 73°F1011.8 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 48 mi64 min SSW 8 G 14 78°F 71°F1010.9 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY10 mi98 minSSW 1010.00 miPartly Cloudy80°F73°F79%1011.6 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY14 mi41 minSW 15 G 237.00 miThunderstorm Light Rain77°F73°F90%1012.7 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY19 mi98 minSSW 14 G 2510.00 miOvercast79°F73°F85%1011.4 hPa
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT22 mi41 minSW 610.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F73°F77%1010.8 hPa
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT22 mi42 minSSW 810.00 miPartly Cloudy78°F73°F85%1010.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHWV

Wind History from HWV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmS3----------SE4S5SE5----S6SW8SW10SW10
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1 day agoSW4CalmSW3------W3N3N4--CalmN5N6N6N65S4SW8SW8S7--S10S5S4
2 days agoSW7W6--------S8----W4CalmSW5--S5S9S8S9S9S9
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SW11W8Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Herod Point, Long Island Sound, New York
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Herod Point
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Wed -- 03:15 AM EDT     5.91 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:20 AM EDT     0.73 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:43 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:38 PM EDT     6.25 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:41 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:53 PM EDT     0.80 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:54 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.24.55.45.95.74.83.52.21.30.80.91.62.94.35.46.16.25.64.331.810.81.2

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:42 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:50 AM EDT     -1.34 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:32 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:06 AM EDT     1.23 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 11:41 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 02:14 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:20 PM EDT     -1.26 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 07:39 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:10 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 10:53 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:28 PM EDT     1.05 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.5-0.2-0.9-1.3-1.3-1.1-0.7-0.20.30.91.21.10.80.2-0.6-1.1-1.2-1.2-0.8-0.5-0.10.51

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.