Thursday, July29, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mount Sinai, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:44AMSunset 8:13PM Thursday July 29, 2021 5:01 AM EDT (09:01 UTC) Moonrise 11:29PMMoonset 11:33AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 450 Am Edt Thu Jul 29 2021
Today..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft this afternoon. Slight chance of showers and tstms this morning, then showers and tstms likely this afternoon. Some tstms may produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall late with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Showers and tstms likely this evening, then chance of showers after midnight. Some tstms may produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft in the evening, then 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..N winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Winds and seas may be higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 450 Am Edt Thu Jul 29 2021
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A warm front will approach today, and may enter the waters late today before a cold front follows tonight. High pressure will build in for Friday into Saturday. Low pressure will pass to the north on Sunday, followed briefly by high pressure on Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mount Sinai, NY
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location: 40.97, -73.03     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 290238 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1038 PM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure moves off the New England coast overnight as a warm front approaches from the southwest. The warm front briefly moves into the area Thursday, and is followed by a cold front Thursday night. High pressure builds in from the upper midwest Friday into Saturday. The high moves off the coast on Sunday ahead of the next cold front. This front should move offshore by Monday as high pressure returns early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/. A longwave upper trough remains across the northeast tonight as a shortwave approaches in the cyclonic flow on Thursday. Meanwhile, surface high pressure will be moving off the New England coast, with a warm front developing over the Mid- Atlantic states.

As the lower ridge moves into the western Atlantic warm advection will be setting up to the west with the warm front moving toward eastern Pennsylvania and southern New Jersey.

As frontal lift increases and the upper shortwave approaches, there will be increasing potential for low clouds and a slight chance of showers across the southwestern/western section toward Thursday morning.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. The warm front will slowly push into the region during Thursday, and there is some uncertainty as to how far inland the front will move until later in the day. In addition an upper midwestern convective complex will be moving into the region by Thursday afternoon. Instability and CAPE remain marginal Thursday afternoon and into the evening, and low and mid level lapse rates are not strong. There will be the potential for thunderstorms, some of which may become severe, and the Storm Prediction Center has placed northeastern New jersey in a slight risk, with the remainder of the region in a marginal risk. The primary threat is damaging wind gusts, however, large hail is possible, along with an isolated tornado.

With increasing precipitable water and warm cloud processes, heavy rainfall is also possible, especially in association the remnants of the convective complex. Storms will be moving 15-25kt so the expectation is for brief heavy rainfall.

The cold front passes through the region late Thursday night with precipitation quickly coming to an end as the upper shortwave passes into the western Atlantic.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Upper troughing will dominate the synoptic pattern over the northeast Friday into the upcoming weekend. A cold front should be offshore Friday morning, with high pressure building in from the upper midwest. Models are coming into better agreement that there will be an initial push of drier air behind the front Friday afternoon to lower dew points into the 50s for most locations. Temperatures look to end up close to normal around 80 inland to the lower and middle 80s near the coast. Increasing NW flow during the afternoon may also bring wind gusts 25 to potentially 30 mph. These winds may continue into the evening before weakening at night. Temperatures Friday night will range from the low 50s inland to the middle and upper 50s most elsewhere. The NYC metro should fall to around 60 degrees.

Saturday is shaping up to be a seasonably mild and sunny day. The main upper trough axis slides to the east with the surface high nearly overhead. Highs will be in the middle to upper 70s for much of the region, except around 80 in the NYC metro. Dew points may lower into the 40s to low 50s, making it feel quite comfortable for the end of July. The high moves offshore by Saturday night and a weak return flow sets up. Lows will be a bit milder, but still in the 50s inland and lower to middle 60s near the coast.

Global models and ensembles continue to be in general agreement with the next shortwave and associated frontal system on Sunday. There does appear to be some issues with the global models handling of potential convection and ultimately any surface low. There does not appear to be much instability Sunday and have left thunder out of the forecast for now. Have followed the NBM PoPs given the uncertainty with the mesoscale, which yields a chance of showers in the afternoon and evening. The front and shortwave look to move offshore Sunday night into Monday morning. Temperatures on Sunday should be slightly below normal.

A consensus blend of the guidance for early next week was followed closely. The front should remain offshore with upper troughing holding over the eastern states. The proximity of the boundary and energy from the upper trough could develop a wave or waves of low pressure along the front. The amplification of the upper trough and offshore ridging will likely determine if the front shifts back closer to or over the area at some point early to middle of next week.

AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. High pressure will move offshore this evening as a warm front approaches from the southwest on Thursday.

VFR through midnight. Then moderate potential for MVFR cigs to develop by or during morning push. Some uncertainty on how early MVFR cigs develop (as early as 08z or hold off till after daybreak). Localized IFR possible. Increasing chance for showers for western terminals through the morning, and then for eastern terminals in the afternoon.

MVFR cigs may have a hard time improving until potential line of shra/tsra moving in from the west in late afternoon/evening. NYC/NJ terminals have best chance of seeing a period of VFR as well as scattered or a line of tsra in the aft/eve, which could be potentially strong to severe.

Duration of improvement in cigs Thu aft/eve will depend on whether organized convection moves through, but likelihood that MVFR/IFR cigs will return Thu Night until late Thu Night/Fri am.

Light SE flow overnight, increases to 8-12kt for coastal terminals Thu AM and will continue through the afternoon. Uncertainty on wind direction in evening, dependent on convection and warm front, but likely S/SE less than 10 kt.

. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty .

MVFR cigs possible to develop before morning push, with increasing likelihood to develop through the morning push. MVFR cigs likely continue through the day into evening push. Potential for scattered or a line of tsra 18-24z.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. Thursday night. Evening showers/tstms possible. MVFR/IFR cigs likely. Light S/SE winds. Friday. Mainly VFR. Slight chance of a shower. NW winds G20kt late day/evening. Saturday. VFR. Sunday. Mainly VFR with chance of showers . mainly at night. Monday. VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE. Winds and seas remain below SCA levels tonight through Thursday as high pressure moves offshore tonight, and a frontal system affects the waters Thursday and Thursday night.

NW winds increase after a cold frontal passage on Friday. The strongest winds look to occur on the ocean waters in the late afternoon and Friday night with gusts 25-30 kt possible. The non- ocean waters should stay closer to 20 kt, but it cannot be completely ruled out seeing some gusts to 25 kt Friday evening. Ocean seas may also build to around 5 ft. Winds and seas subside Saturday morning with sub-SCA conditions likely to continue through Monday.

HYDROLOGY. There is the potential for 1/2 to 1 inch of rainfall Thursday and Thursday night, with locally higher amounts possible. Minor urban and poor drainage flooding is possible, especially Thursday afternoon and Thursday evening.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. A moderate risk of rip current development will develop at ocean beaches on Thursday due to building S winds waves and lingering SE swells. There is a moderate risk of rip current development at ocean beaches again on Friday, despite offshore flow, due to residual 3 ft S swells.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . DS/MET NEAR TERM . DS/MET/NV SHORT TERM . MET LONG TERM . DS AVIATION . NV MARINE . DS/MET HYDROLOGY . DS/MET TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . DS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 16 mi43 min SSW 5.1 G 7 70°F 74°F1015.8 hPa
44069 19 mi31 min S 7.8 G 9.7 72°F 80°F67°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 23 mi43 min SSW 9.9 G 12 71°F 75°F1017.1 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 29 mi46 min SSE 5.8 G 7.8 71°F 67°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 37 mi46 min SSE 5.8 G 7.8 71°F 67°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 40 mi43 min S 4.1 G 6 70°F 1017.1 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY12 mi65 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds67°F65°F93%1016.5 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY14 mi65 minN 09.00 miA Few Clouds64°F61°F90%1016.7 hPa
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT15 mi69 minS 510.00 miMostly Cloudy71°F65°F81%1016.3 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY23 mi68 minSE 310.00 miPartly Cloudy59°F56°F90%1017.3 hPa
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT23 mi68 minS 410.00 miMostly Cloudy72°F67°F84%1016.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KISP

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4N7N7N11N11N8N10NE115
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1 day agoNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW5W5SW7SW6S11S12S10S11SW9SW10SW7W8N8N4SE3NW6NW9W3NW4
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalm3N6N6NW6N5N6W6SW7SW7SW6W4SW5SW6SW5SW5W3CalmNW3NW5Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Mount Sinai Harbor, Long Island Sound, New York
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Mount Sinai Harbor
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Thu -- 03:48 AM EDT     5.97 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:18 AM EDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:33 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:16 PM EDT     6.14 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:50 PM EDT     0.63 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:28 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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23.44.75.765.54.53.3210.50.61.62.94.35.56.15.95.24.12.81.70.90.6

Tide / Current Tables for Stony Brook, Smithtown Bay, Long Island Sound, New York
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Stony Brook
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:51 AM EDT     6.04 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:10 AM EDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:33 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:19 PM EDT     6.21 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:42 PM EDT     0.65 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:29 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.13.54.85.765.64.53.3210.50.71.734.45.56.265.24.12.81.60.80.7

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