Saturday, December7, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Napeague, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:59AMSunset 4:20PM Saturday December 7, 2019 1:39 PM EST (18:39 UTC) Moonrise 3:03PMMoonset 3:05AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 102 Pm Est Sat Dec 7 2019
Rest of today..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..E winds around 5 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft in the afternoon.
Sun night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of rain after midnight.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain.
Mon night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft. Rain, mainly in the evening.
Tue..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Rain.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Rain.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Snow and rain likely in the morning, then chance of snow in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
ANZ300 102 Pm Est Sat Dec 7 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure will build in from the west this afternoon, settle over the waters tonight, then pass east on Sunday. A warm front will approach on Monday and lift north Monday night. A cold front will then approach on Tuesday and pass through Tuesday night into Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Napeague, NY
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location: 41, -72.08     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 071724 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1224 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will continue to build in from the west this afternoon, settle over the area tonight, then pass east on Sunday. A warm front will approach on Monday and lift north Monday night. A cold front will then approach on Tuesday and pass through Tuesday night into Wednesday. Arctic high pressure will then follow later in the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Shortwave trough continues to amplifies over the region this afternoon, as surface high pressure continues to builds in from the west. Mostly sunny and unseasonably cool conditions for this afternoon, with occasional NW wind gusts to 20 mph into this afternoon. High temps today in upper 30s to near 40 for city/coast and lower to mid 30s Interior.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/. Clear skies and light winds tonight under building high pressure should lead to a cold night. Lows in the 20s in and just outside NYC, teens most elsewhere, and some single digit lows may be possible in the interior valleys well NW of the city and in the Long Island Pine Barrens.

Developing return flow on Sunday as the high shifts east should allow slight moderation in temps, with lower 40s NYC metro/Long Island/coastal CT and upper 30s elsewhere.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. Somewhat complex scenario shaping up for early week as an amplifying long wave trough develops over the lower 48. First, a warm front riding up the coast, and accompanied by a shortwave trough embedded in the deep layer SW flow E of the amplifying longwave trough, should bring a round of moderate to locally heavy rain on Mon. Think ECMWF is more correct than the GFS with its axis of heavier rain falling more squarely over the area rather than to the east, via enhanced lift beneath a coupled low level convergence/upper level divergence couplet. Wind forecast tricky as there will be both a strong LLJ present and low level inversion to prevent stronger winds from reaching the sfc except perhaps in heavier precip accompanying warm fropa late day or early evening. Have mentioned slight chance thunder mainly for the metro area and Long Island with models showing some elevated instability and TT nearing 50.

Once we get into the warm sector, precip chances should diminish going into overnight Mon night into Tue morning, then increase with cold fropa Tue night. This second round of steady precip will likely be anafrontal in nature given, lagging behind cold fropa given the lagging mid level trough and anticyclonic upper level jet streak approaching from the west. In this scenario, precip should change to a period of snow from late Tue night into Wed especially north/west, as colder air pours in, especially north/west of NYC where a couple of inches accumulation appears likely, and lesser amts toward the coast. The slower/wetter ECMWF cold fropa suggests a possible worst case of advy level snowfall inland, and maybe an inch or two for NYC metro and the coast.

Very cold air will settle in Wednesday night and Thursday, with temps likely remain below freezing. A slight warmup is expected by Friday as high pressure passes east.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. VFR. High pressure settles over the terminals through tonight, then passes offshore on Sunday.

NW winds (mainly right of 310 magnetic) 10-15 kt through 20z, then diminishing below 10 kt in the evening and becoming light and variable overnight. Any gusts will occasional 18-23 kt and mainly at city terminals through 20z. Light flow Sunday morning becomes S-SE and increases to around 10 kt late morning and early afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. Sunday Afternoon. VFR. Sunday night. MVFR developing late with chance of rain. Monday. Rain becoming widespread. S G20-25kt, mainly at the coastal terminals, with a chance of LLWS Monday into Monday night. Slight chance thunder Monday afternoon. Tuesday. MVFR or lower in showers, possibly ending as a period of snow late at night. SW gusts around 20 kt possible. Wednesday. Chance of rain or snow and MVFR in the morning. W-NW G20-25kt possible. Thursday. VFR.

MARINE. Winds and seas will subside today as as high pressure builds in from the west. The high builds overheard by Sunday morning and then offshore during the day. A strengthening southerly flow may bring marginal SCA conditions to the ocean waters Sunday night.

Thereafter, a prolonged period of SCA conditions is forecast on the ocean waters due to a persistent southerly flow and building seas as a cold front approaches from the west, passing through the waters Tuesday night. There is a chance of gales Monday afternoon into Monday night, however, there is uncertainty as a strong inversion sets up across the waters, limiting the high wind potential. Marginal SCA conditions are possible elsewhere.

Post-frontal SCA conditions in the W-NW flow are possible Wednesday.

HYDROLOGY. A significant long duration rainfall event is expected from late Sunday night into Wed. Event total QPF likely to range from 1.5-2.0 inches, perhaps 2-3 inches if wetter guidance ends up being more correct. There will be some lulls in the precipitation, but the rain could be heavy at times Monday and Monday night, and again later Tuesday. The long duration of the event should preclude widespread flooding. Nuisance/poor drainage flooding is the most likely outcome.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still operating at reduced power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . Goodman/PW NEAR TERM . Goodman/NV SHORT TERM . Goodman LONG TERM . Goodman/PW AVIATION . DS MARINE . DW HYDROLOGY . Goodman EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 7 mi51 min 34°F 45°F1026.9 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 21 mi39 min NW 15 G 20 36°F 999.5 hPa17°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 25 mi51 min NW 7 G 11 36°F 48°F1026.4 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 48 mi51 min NNW 13 G 17 35°F 41°F1026.7 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY10 mi45 minNW 9 mi37°F19°F48%1026.8 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT23 mi43 minNW 10 G 1810.00 miFair36°F16°F44%1026.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTP

Wind History from MTP (wind in knots)
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2 days agoW8W7------W6W7--------W7W6W5--W9
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Tide / Current Tables for Promised Land, Napeague Bay, Long Island Sound, New York
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Promised Land
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:05 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:33 AM EST     2.37 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:59 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:08 PM EST     0.32 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:03 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:19 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:50 PM EST     1.99 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.71.21.72.12.32.32.11.81.510.60.30.50.81.31.61.921.81.61.30.90.5

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:31 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:05 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:23 AM EST     2.24 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 07:00 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:47 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:48 AM EST     -2.65 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 02:02 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:12 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:19 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 04:55 PM EST     2.09 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 08:12 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 11:06 PM EST     -2.45 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.5-0.60.61.62.22.21.70.9-0.3-1.5-2.4-2.6-2.2-1.4-0.311.82.11.81.20.2-1-2-2.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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