Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Springs, NY

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
High pressure remains off to the north and east tonight as a weak area of low pressure over the Ohio River Valley slides east along a quasi stationary front over the southern Mid Atlantic.

Area of light rain and sprinkles continues to move across portions of of NYC, parts of NE NJ, and southwestern LI this evening. Most places that observe the light rain will just see a trace, but a few spots could see a hundredth or two.

Saturated low levels below 700 mb will maintain plenty in the way of cloud cover, and very weak convergence could spur additional pockets of drizzle or light rain tonight, but coverage likely much more isolated.

Temperatures largely remain steady overnight along the coast, generally around 60, though parts of the far interior could slip into the mid 50s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
Flow remains easterly on Monday as the center of high pressure to the north shifts off into the northwest Atlantic. Subtle height rises with weak ridging aloft moving overhead.

Similar conditions to the close of the weekend, with cloud cover and cooler conditions. Lack of significant forcing should mitigate most precip development, but can't still can't rule out spotty light rain at any point in the period. Weak shortwave energy moving east thru the Mid Atlantic may instigate higher coverage, mainly to the south and west over NJ and PA, but this activity could work in locally. Otherwise, generally remaining overcast over the south and west, with potential for thinning and maybe even peeks of sun possible into southeastern CT.

The onshore marine flow and cloud cover will continue to limit temperatures, though a bit milder than Sunday, still running a good 10 degrees below normal for mid June, with afternoon highs topping out around 70 for most, and near 60 overnight.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
A shortwave will somewhat flatten an h5 ridge over the area on Tuesday. Plenty of moisture will be available, bringing chances of showers, but not anticipating thunderstorms as models agree with very limited to no CAPE. The shower threat increases Tuesday night through Wednesday with the approach of a warm front and associated lift, as well as few rounds of shortwave lift. The threat lowers for Wednesday afternoon with the warm front to the north and shortwave lift to our east. CAPE ramps up Wednesday afternoon as we'll be in the warm sector, but with less mechanical lift and some capping due to ridging in the wake of the shortwave passage, the thunderstorm threat would appear to be limited. With that said, the moisture content will be high Tuesday through Wednesday, so any showers could produce locally heavy rainfall.

A shortwave then amplifies the h5 flow on Thursday with a trough axis approaching from the west, eventually passing through on Friday. An associated cold front is expected to pass through during Thursday night, but before then, a pre-frontal trough may act as a focus for convective development in an increasingly unstable air mass. SBCAPEs could climb to 1500-2500 J/kg away from the coast, and when combined with shear profiles, organized strong to severe thunderstorms could be possible. Machine-learning probability models and SPC's day 5 convective outlook support this severe thunderstorm threat. NBM has backed off on overall rain chances from yesterday's guidance, but is still showing at least a 40% chance from around the city to the Lower Hudson Valley and NE NJ. Leaned more toward the 25th percentile NBM for highs on Thursday for most spots as the cooler deterministic numbers have been trending upward over the past couple of days. h8 temps progged at around 19C without too much convective debris should allow for highs in the mid 90s in the typically warmest spots. This coupled with dewpoints around 70 could have some heat impacts.

High pressure then builds in for Friday and remains in control through the weekend. Only a weak cold front may pass through during Friday night, but without much of consequence. If there's any chance of a shower or thunderstorm, it would more likely occur Friday afternoon with a cold pool aloft and steepening lapse rates. NBM limits PoPs to a slight chance well NW of the city Friday afternoon.
Heights rise through the weekend, so a warming trend gets underway with highs ranging from the mid 80s at the coast to lower 90s inland for Sunday.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A weak ridge of high pressure will remain across the terminals into Monday, while a stationary front and waves of low pressure along it remain to the south.

Mainly VFR, with areas of MVFR around the NYC metro terminals, with IFR at KGON. Low confidence forecast through this evening with the flight categories and timing of changes. Conditions are expected to lower to MVFR toward morning, and remain MVFR through Monday. Little improvement is expected, with perhaps a brief period of VFR Monday morning. Then conditions likely lower to IFR Monday evening. Periods of light rain and drizzle will continue along the coast through the overnight.

Light NE to E winds, generally less then 10kt continue through the forecast period. Winds may back more to the ESE for a time Monday afternoon, especially near the coast.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Low confidence with timing and flight categories through this evening.

Low chance for IFR ceilings early Monday morning. Amendments likely for flight category changes through Monday evening.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Late Monday Night: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible.

Tuesday: MVFR-IFR possible. A chance of showers, mainly at night.

Wednesday: Chance of IFR in the morning, otherwise MVFR to VFR in the afternoon with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday: Mainly VFR. Chance of afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms. SW G15-20kt.

Friday: VFR. W G15-20kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Weak pressure gradient results in conditions remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) criteria through Monday night.

For Tuesday through Saturday, winds and seas continue to prevail below SCA levels on the forecast waters. However, ocean seas and gusts may approach SCA levels late day Thursday into Thursday night with an increasing southwest flow ahead of a cold front.

HYDROLOGY
Locally heavy downpours will be possible in any thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday as the air mass will have plenty of moisture.
The flash flooding threat will be mitigated by the speed of any cells and lack of a training signal in addition to the overall chances of showers and thunderstorms. So while flash flooding is not anticipated at this time, minor poor drainage flooding will still be possible both days.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
The rip current risk is moderate both Monday and Tuesday at Atlantic ocean beaches due to E flow, 3-4 ft seas at 7-8s.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.