Wednesday, April8, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Winamac, IN

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 8:19PM Wednesday April 8, 2020 1:14 AM EDT (05:14 UTC) Moonrise 8:16PMMoonset 6:57AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ745 Expires:202004081015;;744010 Fzus53 Klot 080323 Nshlot Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Chicago/romeoville Il 1023 Pm Cdt Tue Apr 7 2020 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10 Percent Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered. Lmz743>745-081015- Calumet Harbor To Gary-gary To Burns Harbor- Burns Harbor To Michigan City- 1023 Pm Cdt Tue Apr 7 2020
Rest of tonight..West winds 10 to 20 kt becoming north late this evening, then becoming northeast 5 to 10 kt toward daybreak. Thunderstorms ending by midnight. Areas of fog developing late. Waves 1 to 3 ft subsiding to 1 ft or less toward daybreak.
Wednesday..South winds 5 to 10 kt increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Patchy fog in the morning. Showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds to 30 kt. Rain showers and a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Waves 3 to 5 ft building to 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft after midnight. A small craft advisory will likely be needed.
Thursday..Northwest gales to 35 kt. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
LMZ745


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Winamac, IN
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location: 41.07, -86.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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FXUS63 KIWX 072257 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 657 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 110 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020

Partly cloudy skies can be expected through the remainder of the day with a lull in thunderstorms activity. It will be warm this afternoon high temperatures into the 70s. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to redevelop this evening. Some of these thunderstorms may be severe this evening into the early overnight hours. Another system will bring a likelihood of more rain for Wednesday evening. Colder air will build in behind this system with windy conditions developing for later Wednesday night into Thursday.

UPDATE. Issued at 636 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020

Forecast mostly remains on track. Latest hi-res guidance shows that the initiation time could be closer to 01-02z than at 00Z. Also seeing dewpoints dropping slightly across the area back towards the mid-50s after reaching to the 60 degree mark earlier this afternoon. Regardless, elevated instability of around 1000 J/kg as seen on the Valparaiso University sounding and continued deep layer shear around 50kt will be sufficient for storm organization and severe weather.

Hail continues to be the primary hazard, and storms upstream have already proven capable of delivering, 2.5 inches in Jackson, WI at 4:16 pm CDT and 1.5 inches in Whitehall, MI at 6:30 EDT.

So far, surface observations and VWPs near the front have not shown the advertised backing of winds which does introduce some uncertainty into the potential for tornadic development. Something to keep an eye on over the next couple hours is a quick shift in surface winds back out of the south or southeast as winds decouple given the loss of daytime heating.

Straightening of the hodograph over night continues to show storms taking on a more liner mode which will increase the potential for damaging wind gusts.

SHORT TERM. (This Evening through Wednesday) Issued at 220 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020

Strong to severe thunderstorms still in play for this evening/tonight. Surface analysis indicating warm front has surged north of the CWA and extends westward back to frontal wave in western WI. This has our area in a capped warm sector as elevated mixed layer spreads eastward in wake over overnight/morning convection. As skies continue to clear this afternoon expect continued destabilization beneath the mid-level cap as surface based CAPE already approaching 2000J/kg over much of the CWA. Frontal wave/weak surface low will track eastward into central lower Michigan by 00Z Wed and is expected to be focus for convective initiation over southern lower Michigan. Forecast soundings in the vicinity of frontal wave have some turning in the low levels and with effective shears forecast around 45kts . combined with steep mid-level lapse rates and increasing boundary layer moisture all point toward potential for discrete cells early on. This along with mid-level dry layer would be supportive of large hail and cant rule out possible tornado. Flow becomes more unidirectional with time and favors transition to more linear convection that will bring damaging wind potential as system continues eastward across the area. Low amplitude mid-level flow suggests a short window for thunderstorms tonight with majority of HREF members having convection exiting SE CWA around 06Z. Weak surface ridging builds behind this system providing dry weather for Wednesday and with little change in airmass expect temperatures to reach into the mid 60s for highs.

LONG TERM. (Wednesday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 220 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020

Strong northern stream upper low moving across Ontario to begin the forecast period will drag surface cold front across the area Wednesday night. Very limited instability ahead of this front and lacking in gulf moisture return will have just low chance for thunder and fast moving front not expected to bring much in the way of rainfall either. Strong surface gradient in the wake of this system will bring windy conditions for Thursday. Forecast soundings indicating mixing depths reaching 7-9Kft bringing potential for sustained 35-40kt gusts Thursday afternoon. Surface high pressure then builds into the TN valley providing dry and cool conditions Friday and Saturday with highs around 10F below normal Friday then moderating back near normal for Saturday. Strengthening southern stream jet dynamics this weekend will have upper low over the southwest US moving eastward . with both deterministic solutions and ensemble means showing some degree of interaction/phasing with the northern stream. Low confidence patten with respect to details on timing/placement of resulting surface low track . but in terms of sensible weather impacts for our area look for precip chances to return Saturday night . and given model and ensemble member differences . not surprising to see blend yielding off and on low chance POPs on into the beginning of next week.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening) Issued at 636 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020

Main change to the existing TAFs was to change the tempo mention for both KFWA and KSBN to prevailing to capture expected convection. Outside of convection, ceilings should hold to VFR until after the passage for a cold front later tonight between 04z and 09z from north to south. Behind the front, low stratus will be possible through sunrise. This stratus will likely persist for several hours past sunrise, but KFWA should be able to return to VFR around midday given less moisture.

When convection affects the terminals, expect degraded ceilings and visby as well as strong wind gusts. Have taken ceilings/visby down to IFR for KSBN and MVFR for FWA, but temporary lower conditions are possible.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IN . NONE. MI . NONE. OH . NONE. LM . Gale Watch from Thursday morning through Friday morning for LMZ043-046.



UPDATE . CM SYNOPSIS . Marsili/Cobb SHORT TERM . JAL LONG TERM . JAL AVIATION . CM

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 47 mi115 min WSW 12 G 14 59°F 53°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 63 mi57 min NNW 12 G 20 50°F 1003.9 hPa48°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Starke County Airport, IN18 mi20 minN 1110.00 miPartly Cloudy59°F53°F82%1004.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOXI

Wind History from OXI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE6SE7N6S7CalmSE5S5S5S6SW7SW9W11W9SW11
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE6SE8
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2 days agoN3NW5N5N5N4NE3CalmN5N7NE6NE7NE8NE6NE8N6NE7N6N12N10N9N5CalmNE3E3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Northern Indiana, IN (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northern Indiana, IN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.