Sunrise 6:35 AM   Sunset 8:48 PM Moonrise 4:38 AM   Moonset 6:25 PM

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LMZ745 Expires:202405062115;;727142 Fzus53 Klot 061439 Nshlot
nearshore marine forecast national weather service chicago/romeoville il 939 am cdt Mon may 6 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
lmz743>745-062115- calumet harbor il to gary in-gary to burns harbor in- burns harbor to michigan city in- 939 am cdt Mon may 6 2024
Rest of today - East winds 5 to 10 kt becoming northeast 10 to 15 kt. Mostly cloudy late in the morning, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Tonight - East winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southeast. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Tuesday - Southeast winds 10 to 20 kt becoming south in the afternoon. Showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.Tuesday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Clear. Waves 1 to 2 ft.

LMZ700
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FXUS63 KIWX 060924 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 524 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe weather threat for Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Damaging winds, large hail, and even a few tornadoes are possible in any severe storms that develop. Heavy rain and minor flooding is possible.

- Severe weather is possible again late Wednesday afternoon into the overnight, especially south of US 30. Damaging winds, hail, and localized flooding are the primary threats.
Confidence is low at this time.

- Cooler with chances for showers and thunderstorms later this week into the weekend. Highs Friday into Sunday will be in the 50s and 60s. Otherwise, expect temperatures in the mid to upper 60s and 70s.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 520 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Mostly dry today into tonight with high pressure settled in at the surface over Lower MI and a ridge aloft. This afternoon a sharp shortwave attempts to break down the ridge, generating showers and storms for locations south of US 30 (best chances further south, around 20% just south of Fort Wayne). The wave eventually washes out, leaving us zonal flow aloft ahead of the deep, broad upper low encompassing the west and central CONUS. Beyond that expect partly to mostly sunny skies north of US 30, with increased cloudiness in the south.

The ever evolving severe weather threat is still on the table for Tuesday afternoon and evening, with still low to medium confidence overall. I think we'll see severe weather somewhere on Tuesday afternoon and evening, but the details are still uncertain as models continue to disagree on how far into the warm sector we get.

The warm front associated with the surface low over the northern plains will lift northeastward through the morning hours Tuesday, with a secondary surface low developing over MO/IL in response to divergence at the nose of a 135 knot jet at 300mb. This low moves into our CWA (or north of it depending on the model) around 18-00z as it begins to occlude-which is when our threat is greatest for the best storms. Most of the models show a swath of showers/decaying convection in the morning (warm front) quickly followed by another, more potent line moving in as the cold front enters the western CWA and begins to occlude. Models vary as to how far into the warm sector we get, but the general consensus is that we'll have between 600-2500 J/kg of surface CAPE, greatest values in the 18-21z time, and depending on the model, 6-7C/km 500-700 mb lapse rates. Being at the nose of the jet, we'll have around 50-75 knots of 0-6 km shear, and plenty of moisture to work with. All hazards would certainly be on the table for this, with decent 0-1 km shear and LCL's around 500- 1000 m. For now, SPC has much of our area in a slight risk (further south and east). The best chance for severe weather will be between 2-10 pm EDT Tuesday. All hazards are on the table, including possible tornadoes.

Behind the system on Tuesday night, we'll see a lull in the precipitation that last through roughly Wednesday afternoon...where we rinse and repeat Tuesday's forecast for Wednesday afternoon into the overnight hours! SPC has our CWA south of US 30 in a slight risk, with an enhanced risk just shy of Jay County. This second system is a bit more potent, but the surface low may go further south than the one forecasted for Tuesday, which makes the better chance outside our area if that occurs. Low confidence for now given that much will also depend on how the first system behaves as far as boundaries, etc. Opted to keep consensus pops for now to focus on the south.

Otherwise, with the upper low moving overhead on Thursday into the weekend, we'll see continued shower activity and maybe even a few thunderstorms again. Models are conflicted on the larger scale pattern, especially Sunday and Monday with the ECMWF having us dry with a surface high in place and an upper level ridge, and the GFS keeping a broad trough over the Great Lakes and continued rain. Kept the consensus pops for now, but with the upper low expect it will be cooler/cloudier than it's been, with highs in the 50s and 60s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 1236 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Dry and mainly VFR through the period as easterly winds pick up to around 10 knots today north of a warm front. Any MVFR stratocu should mix out by mix morning, though confidence remains low. An upper level system tracking east-northeast through the Ohio Valley will continue to spread high cloud cover into northern Indiana otherwise.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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