Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Winamac, IN

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Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN

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FXUS63 KIWX 072257 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 657 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 110 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020

Partly cloudy skies can be expected through the remainder of the day with a lull in thunderstorms activity. It will be warm this afternoon high temperatures into the 70s. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to redevelop this evening. Some of these thunderstorms may be severe this evening into the early overnight hours. Another system will bring a likelihood of more rain for Wednesday evening. Colder air will build in behind this system with windy conditions developing for later Wednesday night into Thursday.

UPDATE. Issued at 636 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020

Forecast mostly remains on track. Latest hi-res guidance shows that the initiation time could be closer to 01-02z than at 00Z. Also seeing dewpoints dropping slightly across the area back towards the mid-50s after reaching to the 60 degree mark earlier this afternoon. Regardless, elevated instability of around 1000 J/kg as seen on the Valparaiso University sounding and continued deep layer shear around 50kt will be sufficient for storm organization and severe weather.

Hail continues to be the primary hazard, and storms upstream have already proven capable of delivering, 2.5 inches in Jackson, WI at 4:16 pm CDT and 1.5 inches in Whitehall, MI at 6:30 EDT.

So far, surface observations and VWPs near the front have not shown the advertised backing of winds which does introduce some uncertainty into the potential for tornadic development. Something to keep an eye on over the next couple hours is a quick shift in surface winds back out of the south or southeast as winds decouple given the loss of daytime heating.

Straightening of the hodograph over night continues to show storms taking on a more liner mode which will increase the potential for damaging wind gusts.

SHORT TERM. (This Evening through Wednesday) Issued at 220 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020

Strong to severe thunderstorms still in play for this evening/tonight. Surface analysis indicating warm front has surged north of the CWA and extends westward back to frontal wave in western WI. This has our area in a capped warm sector as elevated mixed layer spreads eastward in wake over overnight/morning convection. As skies continue to clear this afternoon expect continued destabilization beneath the mid-level cap as surface based CAPE already approaching 2000J/kg over much of the CWA. Frontal wave/weak surface low will track eastward into central lower Michigan by 00Z Wed and is expected to be focus for convective initiation over southern lower Michigan. Forecast soundings in the vicinity of frontal wave have some turning in the low levels and with effective shears forecast around 45kts . combined with steep mid-level lapse rates and increasing boundary layer moisture all point toward potential for discrete cells early on. This along with mid-level dry layer would be supportive of large hail and cant rule out possible tornado. Flow becomes more unidirectional with time and favors transition to more linear convection that will bring damaging wind potential as system continues eastward across the area. Low amplitude mid-level flow suggests a short window for thunderstorms tonight with majority of HREF members having convection exiting SE CWA around 06Z. Weak surface ridging builds behind this system providing dry weather for Wednesday and with little change in airmass expect temperatures to reach into the mid 60s for highs.

LONG TERM. (Wednesday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 220 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020

Strong northern stream upper low moving across Ontario to begin the forecast period will drag surface cold front across the area Wednesday night. Very limited instability ahead of this front and lacking in gulf moisture return will have just low chance for thunder and fast moving front not expected to bring much in the way of rainfall either. Strong surface gradient in the wake of this system will bring windy conditions for Thursday. Forecast soundings indicating mixing depths reaching 7-9Kft bringing potential for sustained 35-40kt gusts Thursday afternoon. Surface high pressure then builds into the TN valley providing dry and cool conditions Friday and Saturday with highs around 10F below normal Friday then moderating back near normal for Saturday. Strengthening southern stream jet dynamics this weekend will have upper low over the southwest US moving eastward . with both deterministic solutions and ensemble means showing some degree of interaction/phasing with the northern stream. Low confidence patten with respect to details on timing/placement of resulting surface low track . but in terms of sensible weather impacts for our area look for precip chances to return Saturday night . and given model and ensemble member differences . not surprising to see blend yielding off and on low chance POPs on into the beginning of next week.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening) Issued at 636 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020

Main change to the existing TAFs was to change the tempo mention for both KFWA and KSBN to prevailing to capture expected convection. Outside of convection, ceilings should hold to VFR until after the passage for a cold front later tonight between 04z and 09z from north to south. Behind the front, low stratus will be possible through sunrise. This stratus will likely persist for several hours past sunrise, but KFWA should be able to return to VFR around midday given less moisture.

When convection affects the terminals, expect degraded ceilings and visby as well as strong wind gusts. Have taken ceilings/visby down to IFR for KSBN and MVFR for FWA, but temporary lower conditions are possible.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IN . NONE. MI . NONE. OH . NONE. LM . Gale Watch from Thursday morning through Friday morning for LMZ043-046.



UPDATE . CM SYNOPSIS . Marsili/Cobb SHORT TERM . JAL LONG TERM . JAL AVIATION . CM

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN	47 mi	115 min	WSW 12 G 14	59°F				53°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL	63 mi	57 min	NNW 12 G 20	50°F			1003.9 hPa	48°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Starke County Airport, IN	18 mi	20 min	N 11	10.00 mi	Partly Cloudy	59°F	53°F	82%	1004.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOXI

Wind History from OXI (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Northern Indiana, IN (1,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Northern Indiana, IN

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