Sunday, August18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Southold, NY

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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 6:01AMSunset 7:47PM Sunday August 18, 2019 5:45 PM EDT (21:45 UTC) Moonrise 9:37PMMoonset 8:45AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 342 Pm Edt Sun Aug 18 2019
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Tue..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Chance of showers and tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Thu night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of tstms in the evening.
Fri..NW winds around 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 342 Pm Edt Sun Aug 18 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure remains over the region through Tuesday with only a couple of weak troughs of low pressure moving in. A cold front approaches Wednesday and moves through Wednesday night. High pressure then builds in for the remainder of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Southold, NY
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location: 41.08, -72.45     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 182026
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
426 pm edt Sun aug 18 2019

Synopsis
High pressure remains over the region through Tuesday with only
a couple of weak troughs of low pressure moving in. A cold front
approaches Wednesday and moves through Wednesday night. High
pressure then builds in through next weekend.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
Shortwave lift pushes through this evening with the strongest lift
over the northernmost zones. At the same time, capes diminish, but
still unstable enough for a chance of strong thunderstorms. Severe
storms not out of the question given marginally strong enough winds
aloft with a weakly veering shear profile. This would be for mainly
the NW half of the forecast area. Still a chance of additional
showers and tstms late at night, but probably with less coverage as
we continue to stabilize. Patchy fog is anticipated as well.

Muggy conditions into this evening expected. A heat advisory has
been issued for portions of the tri-state area. See the short term
section below for more details.

There is a low risk for the development of rip currents at atlantic
ocean beaches into this evening.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through Tuesday
The overall pattern doesn't change all that much for Monday
through Tuesday night with a somewhat flat flow aloft
interrupted by late-day early evening shortwaves. Showers tstms
are possible both days, and again, best chances highest
coverage in the afternoons and evenings as lift and instability
are maximized. Marginal speed and directional shear would appear
to bring at least a low chance of strong to severe storms both
days.

Regarding temperatures and heat indices, Monday's 850mb temps are
forecast to be 18-19c and slightly cooler on Tuesday. Full mix down
potential both days will be limited by somewhat high dewpoints at the
top of the mixed layer, and for areas nearby the water, a southerly
flow. Uncertainty of cloud cover also complicates the high
temperature forecast, but thinking it should be at least partly
sunny rather than mostly cloudy both days. Surface dewpoints won't
have a great opportunity to mix out both days given the wind
direction and dewpoints aloft. So with highs generally in the upper
80s to lower 90s and dewpoints in the lower 70s, heat index values
are expected to reach at least 95 for most of the forecast area on
Monday, but with less overall coverage on Tuesday. Will go with
advisories where the criteria is expected to be met for the Sunday-
Monday period, and let subsequent shifts assess the need to add
Tuesday as appropriate.

There is a moderate risk of rip current development at atlantic
beaches on Monday.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
Hot, humid and unsettled weather continues through wed, possibly
into Thu depending on the progression of a closed low traversing
eastern canada and its associated cold front. 12z nwp model
suite is in good agreement with the overall upper pattern
across north america during the long term period, although there
are some slight timing differences and amplitude differences,
especially with the eastern canadian low.

Heights begin to fall Tue night as the closed low over hudson
bay drops into southern quebec and ontario. There will be
shortwaves moving around the trough that extends into the lakes
and northeast, but the details on the timing of these are still
in question. Thus, have chc pops Tue night into Wed morning.

Better chances for showers tstms will come Wed aftn night with
the development of a pre frontal trough west of nyc and an
approaching cold front. Too early to say whether there will be
severe weather, but it is a possibility if things align right.

Front may only be about halfway through the forecast area by thu
morning so could have additional convective activity across
eastern locations on Thu before it clears the area.

A cooler and more comfortable airmass filters in behind the
front for Fri into the weekend. Upper troughing will linger into
sat with another shortwave progged to move through, although
there may not be enough available moisture for any pcpn. Have
kept forecast dry for now. Temps are expected to be near to
slightly below normal levels during this time.

Aviation 20z Sunday through Friday
Low pressure passes to the south and east through tonight.

Vfr late this afternoon into the evening, outside of an isolated
shower or thunderstorm which could briefly cause a reduction in
visibilities and ceilings. For tonight, expect stratus fog once
again, mainly east of the nyc terminals, and possible patchy fog at
hpn and swf. Once the stratus and fog burn off,VFR once again
Monday morning.

Winds will be southerly around 10 kt. Speeds diminish after
sunset.

Outlook for 18z Monday through Friday
Monday afternoon-Monday night MainlyVFR, but MVFR is
possible in any showers or thunderstorms.

Tuesday-Thursday MainlyVFR, but sub-vfr possible in showers or
thunderstorms.

Thursday night-Friday Vfr.

Marine
A light pressure gradient will maintain relatively tranquil
conditions on all waters through Tuesday night.

Sub advsy conds are expected to prevail through the period,
outside of tstms. Wind gusts and seas on the ocean could
approach 25 kt Wed night and 5 ft Wed night into thu, although
feel that guidance was overdoing the seas on SW flow so have
knocked them down a foot for now.

Hydrology
No hydrologic impacts are expected at this time through the forecast
period.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) remains off
the air.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... Heat advisory until 8 pm edt Monday for ctz005>012.

Ny... Heat advisory until 8 pm edt Monday for nyz067>075-078-080-
176>179.

Nj... Heat advisory until 8 pm edt Monday for njz002-004-006-103>108.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jc 24
near term... Jc
short term... Jc
long term... 24
aviation... Pw
marine... 24
hydrology... CB 24
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 25 mi31 min ESE 7 G 8 74°F 993.1 hPa71°F
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 26 mi46 min 77°F 71°F1015.9 hPa (-0.8)
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 27 mi46 min SSE 7 G 8 81°F 70°F1015.6 hPa (-0.6)
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 28 mi52 min SSW 7 G 8 82°F 76°F1014.7 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 34 mi36 min S 9.7 G 12 78°F 1016.1 hPa75°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 39 mi52 min SSE 6 G 8.9 80°F 76°F1014.7 hPa
44069 43 mi46 min S 9.7 G 14 78°F 81°F77°F

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Gabreski Airport, NY19 mi1.9 hrsVar 510.00 miFair81°F75°F82%1016.3 hPa
Chester, Chester Airport, CT21 mi1.8 hrsSSW 7 G 1310.00 miFair86°F77°F75%1016.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFOK

Wind History from FOK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE3E4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmCalm----W5SW8SW7SW7SW75SW8
1 day ago--E6E3--E4E3------NE3Calm--E3NE5NE4--E6E5E6E5NE5E5E5E5
2 days agoE95--E4E4E5CalmN4NE3------CalmCalm------SE8SE6SE7SE9SE7--SE5

Tide / Current Tables for Horton Point, Long Island Sound, New York
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Horton Point
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Sun -- 01:08 AM EDT     4.25 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:12 AM EDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 01:29 PM EDT     4.20 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:30 PM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:44 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:36 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.94.243.32.31.40.60.20.411.92.93.74.14.13.62.71.70.90.40.40.91.72.7

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
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Sun -- 02:57 AM EDT     -1.63 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 06:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:30 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:46 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 08:51 AM EDT     1.28 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 12:02 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:13 PM EDT     -1.48 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 06:39 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:44 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:08 PM EDT     1.35 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 09:36 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.3-1-1.4-1.6-1.4-0.9-0.40.41.11.31.10.80-0.7-1.2-1.5-1.3-0.9-0.40.311.31.20.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.