Tuesday, August11, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Croton-on-Hudson, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:00AMSunset 8:00PM Tuesday August 11, 2020 9:01 PM EDT (01:01 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 1:39PM Illumination 44% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 636 Pm Edt Tue Aug 11 2020
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers and tstms after midnight. Chance of showers and tstms late.
Wed..SW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..S winds around 5 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..S winds around 5 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Fri night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Sun..E winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 636 Pm Edt Tue Aug 11 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Shortwave trough to the north exits new england tomorrow morning. Trailing cold front initially pushes south through the lower hudson valley but then stalls along the east coast. A frontal boundary will remain stalled south of the region through the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Croton-on-Hudson, NY
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location: 41.2, -73.92     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 112354 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 754 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2020

SYNOPSIS. Shortwave trough to the north exits New England tomorrow morning. Trailing cold front initially pushes south through the Lower Hudson Valley but then stalls along the East Coast. A frontal boundary will remain stalled south of the region through the weekend. A warm front will pass during the beginning of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Weak shortwave trough over southern Quebec continues to promote a moist south flow locally. Low stratus should continue to develop and/or spread into coastal areas this evening. For the northern counties, this evening and overnight additional isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible along a trailing cold front. This front is associated with the aforementioned shortwave to the north that is expected to exit New England tomorrow morning. Precipitable water values are about 1.60 inches which is around the daily average. With that, QPF amounts should be around 0.10-0.25 inches possible for counties mainly along the Lower Hudson Valley.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/. By Wednesday morning, the front is expected to stall across Long Island. South winds will continue to dominant through the morning with dew points remaining in the low 70s for most of the area. Though a scattered to broken cumulus field may develop by late morning ambient temperatures should still reach the upper 80s. This leads to Heat Index values in the mid 90s and as a result a Heat Advisory is in effect for tomorrow afternoon.

Reprieve from the heat is probable after daytime highs. With the already moist environment, storms could begin in the early afternoon as a combination of the seabreeze and southerly winds collides with the stalled front. The showers increase in coverage as the day progresses. Total QPF from these showers and thunderstorms will depend heavily on there movement after they development. It is possible that training storms could produce up to an inch of rainfall in a single location increasing the possibility of isolated nuisance flooding in areas of poor drainage.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. A frontal boundary is progged to remain nearly stationary south of Long Island thru the weekend. Shortwave energy embedded in the flow will provide the focus for rounds of pcpn. The trend has been a bit further north with pcpn over the weekend. Confidence in the timing and placement of any of these convectively induced features is very low. Therefore, pops have capped at the chance level, and were based on the NBM. For Fri, the NAM indicates a band of very hvy rainfall across the area. This again is a low confidence prog however. It does send the signal that the pattern is conducive to a swath of very hvy rainfall in the region if the ingredients come together. PWATS are fcst around 2 inches. A warm front is progged to impact the area in the Mon-Tue time period, followed by a cold front. The ECMWF is much quicker than the GFS, which has slowed from previous runs. Pops were limited to slight chance this far out due to the timing uncertainty. Seasonal temps are expected thru the extended. The NBM with local adjustments was used.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. A cold front moves towards the area late tonight and moves very slowly or stalls before passing to the south and east Wednesday evening.

IFR stratus expected to expand tonight, eventually reaching all terminals except KSWF. Showers possible tonight, primarily at KSWF, but could hold together and reach the city terminals towards around 08z. Will maintain VCSH in the forecast as confidence here is lower.

S-SW Winds diminish to less than 10 kt, with outlying terminals becoming light and variable later this evening. Wednesday morning winds will be SW 5 to 10 kt, except at KSWF where winds will be northwest. Afternoon sea breezes are expected Wednesday.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. Thursday. Chance of showers and thunderstorms with MVFR or lower conditions. Coastal IFR conditions possible Wednesday night. Friday. Chance of showers and thunderstorms with MVFR conditions. Saturday through Sunday. MVFR with a slight chance of showers.

MARINE. Marine fog could be an issue over the ocean and for portions of the eastern Long Island Sound after midnight. Low status could fill in as the light winds and additional moisture couple with cooling overnight temperatures. No advisories have been issued as of yet but will have to monitor closely for development. Any fog should mix into stratus by the late morning.

Winds and seas should remain blw sca lvls Thu into Fri. Increased ely flow behind a cold front could then produce sca conditions, especially on the ocean, late Fri into Mon.

HYDROLOGY. Precipitable water values will increase to around 2 inches Wednesday night into Thursday as a cold front stalls across the area. With weak flow aloft, minor flooding will be possible in any showers and thunderstorms, primarily in urban and other poor drainage areas.

No hydrologic impacts expected Thu thru Tue. There is a low chance that a round of hvy rain could develop within the Thu-Sat time frame due to a stalled front and deep moisture, but confidence is extremely low attm.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for CTZ005>010. NY . Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NYZ067>075-176>179. NJ . Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NJZ002-004-006- 103>108. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . JMC/DJ NEAR TERM . JMC/JC/DJ SHORT TERM . DJ LONG TERM . JMC AVIATION . JC/MET MARINE . JMC/DJ HYDROLOGY . FEB


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44022 - Execution Rocks 24 mi32 min S 9.7 G 14 79°F 77°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 25 mi77 min S 16 G 19 80°F 73°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 28 mi44 min SSW 13 G 17 78°F 1013.9 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 35 mi44 min 80°F 1013.6 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 38 mi44 min S 12 G 13 78°F 1013.1 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 39 mi44 min SSW 8.9 G 9.9 79°F 1013.2 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 41 mi44 min 83°F 1013.3 hPa
MHRN6 41 mi44 min SSE 5.1 G 8
NPXN6 44 mi92 min SSE 9.9 87°F 1012 hPa74°F

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY13 mi66 minS 7 G 1610.00 miFair77°F71°F82%1013 hPa
Newburgh / Stewart, NY23 mi77 minSSW 810.00 miClear82°F71°F70%1013.2 hPa
Teterboro, Teterboro Airport, NJ24 mi71 minS 810.00 miFair82°F73°F74%1012.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHPN

Wind History from HPN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmSE3CalmS4SE9S8S11SE14S12
G17
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1 day agoS5SE4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3W3W4NW5CalmCalmCalmS6S4S5S7S10S10
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2 days agoS3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3S4W53S63S5S11S9S11
G17
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Tide / Current Tables for Haverstraw, Hudson River, New York
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Haverstraw
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:01 AM EDT     2.59 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:05 AM EDT     0.74 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:47 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Tue -- 01:39 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 04:42 PM EDT     2.84 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.11.62.12.52.62.52.21.61.10.90.80.70.81.322.52.82.82.62.21.71.31.21

Tide / Current Tables for Haverstraw (Hudson River), New York Current
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Haverstraw (Hudson River)
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:18 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:01 AM EDT     0.53 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 06:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:39 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 10:39 AM EDT     -0.97 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 12:47 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Tue -- 01:39 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 02:28 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:26 PM EDT     0.68 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 07:24 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:20 PM EDT     -0.97 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.7-0.5-0.10.30.50.40.2-0.1-0.5-0.8-0.9-1-0.8-0.5-0.20.30.60.60.50.2-0.3-0.6-0.8-1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.