Saturday, January23, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Flat Rock, OH

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:47AMSunset 5:37PM Saturday January 23, 2021 3:57 AM EST (08:57 UTC) Moonrise 1:20PMMoonset 3:22AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ144 Expires:202012122345;;234948 fzus71 kcle 122144 mwscle marine weather statement national weather service cleveland oh 444 pm est Sat dec 12 2020 lez142>144-162-163-122345- 444 pm est Sat dec 12 2020 a marine weather statement has been issued for the following areas... Detroit river lt. To maumee bay oh to reno beach oh beyond 5nm offshoreline to us-canadian border... Maumee bay to reno beach oh... Reno beach to the islands oh... Reno beach to the islands oh beyond 5nm off shoreline to us-canadian border... The islands to vermilion oh... Wind gusts to 45 knots can be expected over the western basin of lake erie this evening. The gusty winds are associated with air pressure rises in the wake of low pressure moving northeast into lake huron. Expect the winds to remain gusty through at least 7 pm this evening. Lat...lon 4171 8347 4173 8346 4172 8345 4172 8341 4196 8311 4186 8306 4167 8268 4167 8260 4157 8260 4146 8284 4160 8329 4163 8333 4163 8339 4166 8347
LEZ144


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Flat Rock, OH
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location: 41.2, -82.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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FXUS61 KCLE 230845 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 345 AM EST Sat Jan 23 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure over northern Illinois early this morning will move eastward to Ohio by this afternoon. The high will continue to move eastward through Sunday allowing the next area of low pressure to begin influencing the region by Sunday afternoon. This low will emerge from Texas on Sunday night then move up the Ohio River Valley Monday into Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/. Starting to see cloud cover erode across NW Ohio as the dry air and approaching subsidence from high pressure that is now over northern Illinois. Still cold enough at 850 mb (around -17 C) to keep the mention of flurries going near and east of a line from Sandusky to Millersburg through at least noon. There are still some heavier lake effect snow showers across NE OH and NW PA but only appears that trace to maybe half inch amounts have occured.

Even with the low level drying ahead of approaching high pressure we will still need to monitor for some enhanced snow showers that extend back up to Lake Huron. These look as if they would be focused over NW PA but could wobble westward to around Conneaut. These snow showers will bounce around as the high nudges them eastward through the day. Another 1 inch with locally higher possible. High pressure should take control of the entire region at some point this evening. This should help to end the remaining flurries that likely will persist over NW PA through 9 pm. Highs today in the upper teens across NW PA to around 30 across NW OH where some sunshine is expected. Dry for all locations after 9 pm tonight with lows in the teens to lower 20's.

High pressure moves east of the region on Sunday allowing the region to be influenced by some jet energy that will move through the flow just south of Ohio. The atmosphere looks rather dry at this point, at least to start off the day. There could be enough lift to generate some snow but at this point it appears it will be very light through the afternoon and mainly impact the southern CWA. Plan to keep it all snow for now but could see some freezing rain/drizzle could sneak into the Columbus area. Highs on Sunday will range from the mid 20's across NW OH to the lower 30's.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. Upper level ridge will amplify slightly over the eastern United States Sunday night into Monday as an upper level trough digs into the western United States. A very weak shortwave will scoot through the lower Great lakes Sunday evening and will have a very limited supply of moisture to work with. However, can't rule out a possibility for some very light precipitation in the evening and then followed by drier air for the rest of the night. A shot of potent energy will be ejected out of the desert southwest Sunday night into Monday. This upper level feature will cause surface cyclogenesis to take place over west Texas Sunday night and then deepen the low fairly rapidly as it moves northeast toward the local area. A warm front will lift north in advance of the surface low pressure system but is expected to stall well south of the forecast area Sunday night. However, as low pressure system moves northeast Monday, a greater potential exists for isentropic lift to the north of the warm frontal boundary and over the local forecast area. The big question is what the thermal profile will look like as precipitation spreads into the area Monday and Monday night. A warm layer in the mid levels will likely change the precipitation to a mix of rain/snow/sleet/freezing rain mix. Eventually, as the surface low pressure system moves to the northeast Tuesday, cold air advection will wrap back around to the west of the low and transition the precipitation over all snow. One would think lake effect would develop in the wake of the low but flow is expected to be more north-northeast Tuesday night and therefore should cut-off lake influence. Temperatures will start out in the 20s for lows Sunday night as high pressure well to the north keeps cold air pushing south into the area. As low approaches from the southwest, some warmer air will begin to lift north toward the area Monday and bump highs into the 30s Monday and lows Monday night into the lower 30s; except mid 20s extreme east. Similar highs expected Tuesday but with cold air advection wrapping around back side of the low Tuesday night, temperatures will drop back into the upper teens to lower 20s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. A secondary trough of low pressure aloft will slide in behind the vigorous shot of energy that originated over the desert southwest. The initial shot of energy moved northeast over the local area Tuesday. The secondary feature will amplify as ridge amplifies over the Plains and then lift northeast across the lower Great Lakes. This system appears to be moisture starved and confined mostly to the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys with the surface low pressure system. Cold air advection will descend upon the Great Lakes region Wednesday and Wednesday night as cold high pressure west of James Bay extends a ridge southwest toward Iowa. Wednesday should be dry but will mention slight chance for snow showers across the deep south Wednesday night. Other than that, large amplification of the upper level ridge will support high pressure near James Bay and force it south into the Great Lakes by the end of the week. Fair weather will be the rule during the latter half of the forecast period. Highs each day will hold nearly steady as no real change in air mass is expected. Expecting temperatures to be in the upper 20s east to middle 30s west while lows will be in the 20s Wednesday night and teens Thursday night.

AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/. Dry air is assisting on lifting ceilings across the region overnight. However there are still snow showers that cover much of the region. NW Ohio is still seeing areas of flurries but further east heavier snow showers are still produce brief MVFR and IFR conditions. High pressure builds into the region today with ceilings scattering out through the morning across the west then gradually spread eastward through the day. The only Non- VFR conditions will be in snow showers that will gradually shift eastward into NW PA by this afternoon. Northwest winds will continue to slowly decrease through sunrise. Winds gradually shift to the west through the day with speeds under 8 knots by mid afternoon.

Outlook . Non-VFR possible snow south Sunday afternoon through Tuesday, some mixed precipitation is possible Monday.

MARINE. Small craft advisory will remain in effect through this afternoon as winds slowly begin to diminish through the day. High pressure will build east across the area through Sunday. Low pressure will move northeast toward the area Monday and Tuesday. Another small craft advisory will likely be needed as the low approaches the area Monday into Tuesday. Winds diminish in the wake of the low Tuesday night continuing into Wednesday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . None. PA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ147>149. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LEZ145- 146.

SYNOPSIS . MM NEAR TERM . MM SHORT TERM . Lombardy LONG TERM . Lombardy AVIATION . MM MARINE . Lombardy


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH 23 mi57 min NNW 17 G 22 20°F 1022 hPa (+2.4)
CMPO1 25 mi87 min NW 14 G 23 20°F
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 25 mi57 min WNW 20 G 23 20°F 32°F1023.4 hPa (+2.6)6°F
LORO1 42 mi67 min NNW 18 G 24 20°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 46 mi57 min NW 7 G 14 18°F 1024.5 hPa (+2.4)2°F

Wind History for Marblehead, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mansfield - Mansfield Lahm Regional Airport, OH32 mi65 minNW 1510.00 miOvercast19°F10°F68%1024.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMFD

Wind History from MFD (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.