Tuesday, July27, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Flat Rock, OH

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:20AMSunset 8:53PM Tuesday July 27, 2021 2:53 AM EDT (06:53 UTC) Moonrise 10:23PMMoonset 9:06AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ144 Expires:202107270215;;497543 Fzus51 Kcle 261952 Nshcle Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 352 Pm Edt Mon Jul 26 2021 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez142>144-270215- Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh-reno Beach To The Islands Oh- The Islands To Vermilion Oh- 352 Pm Edt Mon Jul 26 2021
Tonight..West winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Mostly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds less than 10 knots becoming west. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..Northwest winds less than 10 knots becoming northeast. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Thursday through Saturday. The water temperature off toledo is 76 degrees, off cleveland 74 degrees, and off erie 74 degrees.
LEZ144


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Flat Rock, OH
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location: 41.2, -82.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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FXUS61 KCLE 270515 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 115 AM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure located over the Midwest will drift over Ohio by sunrise. A weakening cold front will attempt to cross Lake Erie Tuesday night. A stronger cold front is expected to cross the region on Thursday. High pressure builds overhead for Friday into early Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/. Cirrus clouds continue to spread southeast across Lake Erie at this time. Model soundings suggest there will be brief periods of high clouds streaming across the local area overnight. Otherwise, temperatures continue to fall through the 70s. No real major changes with this update at this time.

Previous discussion .

High pressure located over the Midwest will drift over Ohio by sunrise. This will assist in keeping the region dry. A lake breeze and will persist into the early evening before dissipating. Highs this afternoon well into the 80's. Maybe a few locations touch 90 across NW OH.

High pressure should be located over Ohio tonight. This will keep us dry under a clear sky. Lows tonight in the 60's

A weakening cold front approaches from the north on Tuesday but believe it will stall north of the Lake. However we will need to monitor NW PA for a stray thunderstorm that may attempt to cross the east end of the lake. Other locations are expected to remain dry. It will remain warm with highs ranging from the upper 70's across inland NW PA to the upper 80's.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. Moisture content will continue to be on the rise Wednesday with predominantly northwest flow through the column, though there is variability with model forecasts of dew points. ECMWF/CMC has dew points down in the low to mid 60s Wednesday afternoon while GFS/NAM has them in the low to mid 70s. Currently leaning towards ECMWF/CMC as moderate diurnally-driven boundary layer mixing will likely lead to lower dew points. NAM also tends to overestimate low-level moisture content in these environments too. A stationary/warm front may be in the vicinity of the local forecast area, along with the chance for a weak lake breeze boundary. These two features, along with typical differential diurnal heating boundaries, may serve as initiation points for isolated thunderstorm development Wednesday afternoon. If (and that's a big if) we get thunderstorm development Wednesday afternoon, severe weather could be possible with 25-35 knots of bulk wind shear present.

For Wednesday night, ongoing convection over lower Michigan will likely propagate southeast across Lake Erie and across the local area late Wednesday night through Thursday morning. There will be some potential for severe weather with this as well given the increase in bulk wind shear to as high as 45 knots, though there is a good deal of uncertainty with the instability, given the unfavorable diurnal timing.

For Thursday, a cold front extending from a low near near James Bay will be moving southeast across the Great Lakes region. Moisture content ahead of the front will be high with model guidance solidly forecasting dew points above 70. Bulk wind shear of 40-50 knot overtop this moisture will provide a very favorable environment for severe weather. Key feature for severe weather chances Thursday afternoon over the local area will be with the timing of the cold front, which could very well be influence by the previous nights convection.

By Thursday night, precipitation should be cleared out of our area as high pressure begins ushering into the Great Lakes region Thursday night.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Our local area remains precipitation-free as surface high pressure propagates southeast across the area Friday and Saturday. Below normal temperatures are expected with this surface high. Precipitation chances increase again on Sunday and Monday with the approach of our next upper-level trough. Below normal temperatures are likely to continue through to the end of the long term period.

AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/. VFR conditions are expected to continue through this forecast period with mostly clear skies and light and variable winds. At KERI and KCLE, a lake breeze is expected to develop this afternoon, allowing winds to become northerly at 7-10 knots through sunset. An isolated chance of showers and thunderstorms will accompany a weak frontal boundary as it moves south across the region. As a result, have opted to added VCSH at KYNG and KERI from around 00Z Wednesday through the end of the period. This system is expected to weaken as it approaches the area which should allow conditions to remains VFR, possibly MVFR in any heavy rain.

Outlook . Non- VFR likely with thunderstorms on Thursday.

MARINE. Onshore flow will continue with lake breeze winds this afternoon/evening. Flow becomes predominantly southwesterly late tonight through Tuesday morning as weak high pressure builds into the Ohio Valley. Flow then becomes weak and variable before a weak stationary boundary becomes situated along the eastern end of Lake Erie. A warm front lifts east across Lake Erie late Wednesday night through Thursday morning, with 10-15 knots of southwest flow developing behind this front. A cold front will move southeast across Lake Erie on Thursday with 10-15 knots of northerly flow developing behind it and lasting through Friday evening. High pressure will move southeast across the Great Lakes region Friday and Saturday with southwest flow returning by Saturday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . None. PA . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . MM NEAR TERM . Lombardy/MM SHORT TERM . Saunders LONG TERM . Saunders AVIATION . Campbell MARINE . Saunders


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH 23 mi53 min SW 8 G 9.9 71°F 1015.2 hPa
CMPO1 25 mi83 min WSW 5.1 G 7 72°F
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 25 mi59 min SSW 4.1 G 7 75°F 1015.2 hPa63°F
45165 40 mi33 min WSW 5.8 G 5.8 76°F 79°F1 ft
TWCO1 40 mi43 min SW 8 G 8.9 77°F
45005 - W ERIE 28NM Northwest of Cleveland, OH 42 mi33 min SW 9.7 G 12 77°F 77°F1015.3 hPa71°F
LORO1 42 mi83 min SW 7 G 8.9 76°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 46 mi59 min WSW 2.9 G 4.1 1015.4 hPa

Wind History for Marblehead, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mansfield - Mansfield Lahm Regional Airport, OH32 mi61 minSSW 310.00 miFair69°F60°F73%1016.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMFD

Wind History from MFD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3NW6NW5NW45NW8--N66N8N8N5CalmCalmCalmCalmS3S3S3
1 day agoSW7SW7SW7W6--W65NW4NW6NW5NW34W4NW44W6NW6NE6NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoS7S7S6S7S8S8S7S6SW11SW8S11SW9S11S15S14
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Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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