Sunday, December15, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Flat Rock, OH

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:47AMSunset 5:03PM Sunday December 15, 2019 7:40 PM EST (00:40 UTC) Moonrise 8:45PMMoonset 10:53AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ144 Expires:201912160315;;838528 Fzus51 Kcle 152053 Nshcle Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 353 Pm Est Sun Dec 15 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez143-144-160315- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Reno Beach To The Islands Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- 353 Pm Est Sun Dec 15 2019
Tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable. A slight chance of snow after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..Light and variable winds. Cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday night..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north. A chance of rain and snow. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Wednesday through Friday. The water temperature off toledo is 37 degrees, off cleveland 41 degrees, and off erie 38 degrees.
LEZ144


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Flat Rock, OH
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location: 41.2, -82.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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FXUS61 KCLE 160011 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 711 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

SYNOPSIS. A ridge of high pressure stretching from the upper Midwest to the upper Ohio Valley will be pushed northeast as a warm front approaches the region from the south tonight. Low pressure will develop along this front on Monday and pass southeast of the area on Tuesday. A ridge of high pressure returns to the region for Wednesday, while a weak area of low pressure passes through the northern Appalachians. Eventually, high pressure asserts itself over the central Appalachians on Thursday and will remain over the region into Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. Update . No changes for the initial update.

Original . As a low pressure system enters from the west, a warm front will approach tonight. Ahead of this front, lake effect snow continues with the westerly flow and as a result of decaying lake effect off Lake Michigan. However, a wedge of dry air ahead of this front will move over the region and shut down much of the lake effect for this evening. Radar trends are already down over the past few hours and this should continue. Some lingering light snow in Erie County PA is possible through tonight, but accumulations appear to be an inch at most and mostly early tonight. With the surface warm front, precipitation will enter the region from the southwest overnight. The onset of this precipitation will be all snow as temperatures remain well below freezing aloft. As the front creeps further north, temperatures may warm enough for there to be a loss of ice in the cloud and in turn pose a freezing rain/drizzle threat just before sunrise on Monday. Have snow through the late overnight into Monday with just a slight chance to chance of freezing rain, mainly along and south of US 30 in Ohio. There is still some uncertainty to how far north this precipitation gets with even additional uncertainty to where the freezing rain/drizzle sets up, so will maintain a snow/freezing rain mention in the forecast for tonight and not put up any headlines at this time. As of now As the region stays north of the warm front, overnight lows will be in the upper 20s.

The front lingers south of the area for Monday and a low pressure system over the Tennessee Valley begins to deepen. The recent trend in the models and the placement trend is further south. With some dry air being pulled south from the northwest and no meaningful synoptic or mesoscale forcing, believe that Monday should be fairly dry over the forecast area. Precipitation will wait until Monday evening to develop with the advancing low and upper trough entering from the west. This system appears to draw in some warmer air ahead of the trough and another window of a wintry mix of snow and freezing rain is possible on Monday night into Tuesday. This system appear fairly interesting as the snow vs. freezing rain line will make a big difference in several inches of snow vs. a glaze of ice or a mix of both. Believe that the line will be somewhere east of I-71 and have all snow west of I-71 with a mixture of both east.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. Banded snow associated with a TROWAL and related frontogenesis aloft should end from west to east Tuesday morning as a surface low moves northeastward from the Mid-Atlantic states to near the Canadian Maritimes by nightfall. Simultaneously, the axis of a trough aloft will near our CWA's western border. Precip may fall as freezing rain at times, especially south of I-90 and east of I-71, where ice nucleation may fail to occur within the overlying cloud cover at times. At this point, synoptic snow accumulations are forecast to be an inch or less, with any ice accumulations amounting to a thin glaze of no more than a few hundredths of an inch. Behind the departing low, a westerly to northwesterly flow of progressively colder air will cross Lake Erie and should direct multiple bands of lake effect snow across the snowbelt of northeast OH and northwest PA. Any lake effect snowfall looks to be an inch or less by nightfall. Afternoon highs on Tuesday should reach the low to mid 30's.

The eastward-moving trough aloft settles over our CWA Tuesday night and merges with a potent mid- to upper-level low moving southeastward over northern ON. As cold air continues to deepen, westerly low-level flow should allow lake effect snow to continue across our snowbelt counties, but this snow may retreat over Lake Erie during the predawn hours of Wednesday morning. This is when low- level flow may back toward southwesterly ahead of a reinforcing cold front. Otherwise, fair weather is expected across the rest of our CWA as low temperatures reach the upper teens to mid 20's.

Flow aloft becomes northwesterly over our CWA on Wednesday as the mid- to upper-level low and associated trough begin to move eastward, toward New England, and high pressure at the surface and aloft builds from the west. Ahead of this ridge, the aforementioned reinforcing cold front should cross our CWA from northwest to southeast Wednesday morning. This front will likely be accompanied by snow showers, especially in and near the snowbelt, where lake enhanced snow is expected with the frontal passage. Following the frontal passage, a westerly to northwesterly low-level flow of even colder air will likely direct multiple bands of lake snow across the snowbelt yet again by Wednesday afternoon. High temperatures should only reach the mid to upper 20's on Wednesday, making it the coldest day of this week.

Northwesterly flow aloft persists Wednesday night through Thursday morning as high pressure at the surface and aloft continues building over our area. Lake effect snow bands over the snowbelt should end by noon on Thursday as the stabilizing high pressure ridge causes lake-induced CAPE to wane. Outside of the lake effect snow, fair weather will persist. Low temperatures should reach the teens across the majority of our CWA Thursday morning. Fair weather is then expected CWA-wide for Thursday afternoon as the surface ridge crests over our region. Highs should reach the upper 20's to mid 30's.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. The high pressure ridge aloft should begin to crest over our CWA Thursday night into Friday as the surface ridge overspreads the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states. This will allow fair weather to persist. Low temperatures in the teens or 20's are expected Thursday night. "Milder" highs in the 30's should follow Friday afternoon as southerly flow on the backside of the surface high transports warmer air into our area. Fair weather may continue this weekend when our CWA may reside within a col at the surface and aloft. Low temperatures mainly in the 20's and high temperatures in the 30's are forecast for this upcoming weekend.

AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/. Overrunning moisture was moving north into the area this evening ahead of a warm front now in the TN Vly. Conditions were primarily VFR and will continue VFR through the evening. Overnight expect conditions to drop to MVFR beginning at FDY and MFD around 05-06Z as CIGS lower and snow moves north into the area. Snow will remain mainly across the southern terminals through the overnight, pulling east and south out of the area after 12Z Monday. Expect IFR conditions in the snow. Monday CIGS should lift to MVFR.

OUTLOOK. Non-VFR possible Monday night and Tuesday with a wintry mix of rain, snow, and perhaps some freezing rain. Non-VFR possible with lake effect snow on Tuesday and Wednesday.

MARINE. Westerly to southwesterly winds continue to diminish through this evening, allowing waves to continue to lower from west to east on Lake Erie. The Small Craft Advisory for nearshore waters from Willowick to Ripley remains in effect until 10 PM this evening. Relatively-quiet marine conditions should follow overnight tonight through most of Tuesday. Small Craft Advisory conditions should return Tuesday evening through perhaps early Thursday morning as westerly and then northwesterly flow increases across the lake. Calmer marine conditions are forecast for most of Thursday through Friday as northwesterly winds gradually shift to southerly and then southeasterly.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . None. PA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LEZ147>149.

SYNOPSIS . Sefcovic NEAR TERM . TK/Sefcovic SHORT TERM . Jaszka LONG TERM . Jaszka AVIATION . TK MARINE . Jaszka


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH 23 mi41 min WSW 6 G 7 30°F 1020 hPa (+1.4)
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH 24 mi116 min SW 1.9 30°F 1020 hPa20°F
CMPO1 25 mi131 min WSW 4.1 G 8 30°F
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 25 mi53 min SW 2.9 G 5.1 36°F1021.3 hPa
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 30 mi41 min WSW 13 G 14 31°F 1022.4 hPa (+1.8)
TWCO1 40 mi31 min SW 9.9 G 13
LORO1 42 mi71 min SW 13 G 17 32°F
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 46 mi101 min WSW 9.9 G 11 31°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 46 mi53 min WSW 5.1 G 7 30°F 1021.5 hPa17°F

Wind History for Marblehead, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mansfield - Mansfield Lahm Regional Airport, OH32 mi49 minN 09.00 miA Few Clouds28°F19°F72%1022.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMFD

Wind History from MFD (wind in knots)
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SW8SW7SW8SW5CalmCalm
1 day agoSE3E4E4E3CalmCalmCalmN4N7N8NW6NW10NW8NW7NW7NW6W6W6W7W7W8W7W6SW7
2 days agoSE10SE13SE10SE8SE11S12S12S12S10S10S10S10S11S9S8S9S10S8S6SE4S7E7SE6SE6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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