Saturday, August17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Vernon Center, NJ

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Sunrise 6:07AMSunset 7:55PM Saturday August 17, 2019 9:56 AM EDT (13:56 UTC) Moonrise 9:20PMMoonset 7:56AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 926 Am Edt Sat Aug 17 2019
Today..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers and tstms.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the evening. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of tstms in the evening. Chance of showers.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the evening. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 926 Am Edt Sat Aug 17 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A frontal boundary remains stalled to the south of the region with high pressure to the northeast. A trough of low pressure will develop to the west on Sunday followed by a weak cold front Monday night. This boundary dissipates over the area on Tuesday, although another cold front approaches Wednesday and moves through Wednesday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Vernon Center, NJ
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location: 41.21, -74.51     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 171313
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
913 am edt Sat aug 17 2019

Synopsis
A weak stationary front will remain stalled to the south of our area
through the early portion of next week. High pressure to our NE will
continue to slowly move offshore today while an area of low pressure
passes to our NW on Sunday. A bermuda high will build east of the
carolina coast into the middle of next week. A cold front will then
approach the region Wednesday into Thursday, with high pressure
building in it's wake on Friday.

Near term through tonight
Morning clouds and fog continue to dissipate this morning, and
skies should become partly to mostly sunny throughout.

Otherwise, today the transition from the onshore easterly flow
regime to a southerly return flow regime will occur as the
bermuda high develops. In addition to the shifting low level
flow, there is also a mid level short wave trough which should
cross from the great lakes region into new england today. Expect
most of the convective activity with this trough to be north
and west of our region. However, if a qlcs develops, the
southern poconos and northwest nj could be on the southern
fringe of that risk area. Additionally, there could be isolated
and scattered showers and storms ahead of the trough, as there
could be some weak surface convergence with orographic effects.

As for thunderstorm hazards, if the qlcs scenario develops,
then the risk for strong winds associated with that could extend
into the southern poconos and northwest nj. Otherwise, the risk
is relatively low. Wind speed, and consequently wind shear, is
rather weak in the boundary and mixed layer. However, with still
relatively dry air above 800 mb, can't rule out some mid level
dry air entrainment leading to downburst gusty winds.

Temperature wise, we won't see the full effects of the southerly
return flow today since it isn't expected to develop until this
afternoon. Highs are expected to be in the 80s across most of the
area which is near or just a few degrees higher than Friday's highs.

Heat index values will likely get into the mid 90s for DELMARVA and
portions of the 95 urban corridor, but should stay well below heat
advisory criteria today.

Short term Sunday
The first round of showers and thunderstorms should dissipate
as the short wave trough lifts further northeast through the
evening. There could be a second round of showers and
thunderstorms associated with an MCV (associated with the
Saturday morning convective complex over ks mo il). However, as
with the first round, it appears that if there is a second
round, it will be mostly north and west of our area. Though the
low level flow regime will have changed by tonight, we will
have another risk for patchy fog to develop as clearing skies
should allow radiational cooling leading to low dew point
depressions. For most of the area, overnight temperatures will
stay above 70 overnight.

Long term Sunday night through Friday
Synoptic overview: southwesterly-westerly flow will prevail at
the mid- lvls through Wednesday as the area resides along the
nw N periphery of the mid-lvl subtropical ridge. Various low-
amplitude, but potentially convectively-enhanced, disturbances
will clip the NW part of our forecast area Sunday-Tuesday as the
overall storm track remains just to our nw. At the surface the
stationary front looks to remain stalled south of the area with
its attendant waves generally tracking east of the area. The
bermuda high noses slightly westward toward the beginning of
next week with warm and moist low-lvl southerly southwesterly
flow developing in response.

By Wednesday a longwave trough over canada will begin to
amplify and the associated low-lvl cold front will likely
pass through the area Thursday. Finally milder and drier air
filters into the region Friday Saturday as high pressure builds
briefly over the area.

Dailies:
Sunday: guidance has trended a bit cooler on Sunday and
consequently generally have highs "only" toping out in the
upper 80s to lower 90s with heat indices generally in the low to
mid 90s. The precipitation forecast is a bit challenging as
guidance indicates a (likely convectively- enhanced) shortwave
moving over the NW half of our area. Lift associated with this
feature combined with an unstable airmass (mlcapes generally in
the 1500-2500 j kg range) should be sufficient to generate
at least scattered thunderstorms. Consequently bumped pops in
the Sunday afternoon time frame, and can't rule out some heavy
rain and stronger storms (although shear will be lower than
previous days). Do think for example the nam's 3+ inches of qpf
are a bit overdone though.

Monday: should see less cloud cover and lower storm chances
Monday (although given persistent instability can't rule them
out) with temperatures increasing a few degrees relative to
Sunday. Currently have heat indices holding slightly below
advisory criteria (for the urban corridor) but it will be a
close call.

Tuesday Wednesday: Tuesday will likely be about as warm Monday,
with precipitation chances increasing as another low-amplitude
wave approaches the area. Given pwats around 2 inches and cape
values AOA 1500 j kg some strong storms and or locally heavy
rainfall will be possible (although shear remains modest).

Wednesday remains warm and muggy with storm chances remaining
elevated as the cold front approaches. Naturally storms could be
strong approaching the pattern transition, but details
regarding frontal timing are still too nebulous to hypothesize
on severe-potential at this time.

Thursday: the front likely moves through the area on Thursday
with some guidance hinting at two potential frontal passages; a
weaker one passing through the area late Wednesday into early
Thursday and a stronger one Thursday pm. Temperatures will be a
bit cooler with instability storm chances also decreasing
somewhat, especially over the north, as the airmass dries
behind the front.

Friday: Friday looks pleasant behind the front with highs in
the upper 70s to lower 80s with dewpoints potentially falling
into the 50s. Dry conditions prevail as high pressures builds
in from the west.

Aviation 13z Saturday through Wednesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

This morning... Low clouds and patchy fog will continue to
dissipate through 16z, with all sites returning toVFR by at
least 18z. Winds may start light and variable, but should mostly
be easterly and southeasterly below 10 kt through the morning.

This afternoon... Isolated and scattered showers and thunderstorms
are possible, primarily between 16 and 02z. The highest risk looks
to be at krdg and kabe. At the other TAF sites, confidence is
too low to include in the tafs at this time. Although winds
should stay light (less than 10 kt), expect the direction to
gradually shift from easterly to southerly through the
afternoon.

Tonight... Once showers and storms dissipate, expect mostlyVFR
conditions. After 06z, patchy fog could develop. Where fog develops
tonight could be very dependent on which areas see rain today, so
haven't included a mention in the tafs at this time. Light southerly
winds are expected overnight.

Outlook...

Sunday through Tuesday...VFR, with lower restrictions possible
in scattered showers and thunderstorms. Southerly-southwesterly
winds to 5 to 10 knots.

Wednesday...VFR with restrictions likely in the late afternoon
and evening with showers and thunderstorms developing.

Southwesterly winds 5 to 10 knots, gusting to 15 knots.

Marine
Winds and seas should stay below small craft advisory conditions
today and tonight. Patchy near shore fog is possible through mid
morning this morning.

Outlook...

Sunday and Monday... Sub-sca conditions expected. Southerly
winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.

Tuesday... Sub-sca conditions expected. Southerly winds 10 to 15
knots and gusts to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.

Wednesday... Sub-sca conditions expected, however southwesterly
winds may gust over 20 kts at times. Seas 2 to 4 feet.

Rip currents...

onshore flow is expected to continue for at least the first half of
the day, and seas will remain near 3 feet. Therefore, the moderate
risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents will continue on
the nj shore and at the delaware beaches through this evening.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Carr
near term... Johnson mps
short term... Johnson
long term... Carr
aviation... Carr johnson mps
marine... Carr johnson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MHRN6 43 mi63 min E 6 G 6
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 44 mi57 min 76°F 73°F1016.7 hPa (-0.0)
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 44 mi63 min 78°F 75°F1016.6 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 45 mi57 min ENE 6 G 7 75°F 1016.5 hPa (-0.0)
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 48 mi57 min ESE 1.9 G 5.1 73°F 73°F1017.4 hPa (-0.0)

Wind History for Bergen Point West Reach, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sussex, Sussex Airport, NJ6 mi2.1 hrsENE 38.00 miMostly Cloudy72°F69°F91%1016.9 hPa
Andover, Aeroflex-Andover Airport, NJ18 mi2 hrsN 0 mi73°F71°F94%1016.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFWN

Wind History from FWN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr----CalmW3353--SE4--SE5Calm--CalmCalm------CalmCalm--CalmCalmE3
1 day agoE5E4NE4Calm4Calm4553SE6--Calm--CalmCalmSE4W3------CalmCalm--
2 days agoNE7NE6NE5NE5NE8NE11N7E6NE8NE7NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN5NE3

Tide / Current Tables for Haverstraw, Hudson River, New York (2)
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Haverstraw
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:00 AM EDT     3.36 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:51 AM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:53 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 12:29 PM EDT     2.99 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:01 PM EDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:17 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.43.22.721.30.70.20.10.51.42.12.7332.72.11.50.90.60.40.71.52.32.9

Tide / Current Tables for Haverstraw, Hudson River, New York
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Haverstraw
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:09 AM EDT     3.28 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:53 AM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:53 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 12:39 PM EDT     2.92 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:03 PM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:17 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.33.22.721.30.70.200.41.222.62.92.92.62.11.510.50.30.61.32.22.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.