Sunrise 5:41 AM   Sunset 7:48 PM Moonrise 2:59 AM   Moonset 1:18 PM

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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 600 Am Edt Tue Mar 30 2021
Today - E winds around 5 kt, becoming S late this morning and afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Tonight - S winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Wed - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers in the morning, then chance of rain in the afternoon. Wed night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Thu - W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers.Thu night - NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Fri - NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Fri night - NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Sat - W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Sat night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.

ANZ300 720 Pm Edt Thu May 2 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A cold front passes offshore this evening followed by high pressure building down the new england coast through Friday. The high retreats farther offshore on Saturday as a frontal system approaches from the west. This system moves slowly through the region Saturday night into Sunday with the associated cold front passing through Monday. The front then stalls south of the region and moves back north as a warm front Tuesday into Wednesday.

FXUS61 KOKX 022348 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 748 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front passes offshore this evening followed by high pressure building down the New England coast through Friday. The high retreats farther offshore on Saturday as a frontal system approaches from the west. This system moves slowly through the region Saturday night into Sunday with the associated cold front passing through Monday. The front then stalls south of the region and moves back north as a warm front Tuesday into Wednesday. A cold front approaches for Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
A cold front was moving through the lower Hudson Valley and into northeastern New Jersey, and approaching New York City at 23Z, and will continue tracking slowly south this evening. Across areas with southerly winds/sea breezes temperatures rise with the initial wind shift to the north as dew points rapidly fall.
Tough timing of the passage of the front. And where winds remain southerly some stratus and fog has been moving back into coastal sections of Long Island. Behind the front ridging builds in both aloft and at the surface through Friday. The surface high will build down from eastern Canada and along the New England coast during this time. As it does, NE winds will strengthen a bit tonight along with some low-level moisture working back in from along the New England coast. This will allow for partly to mostly cloudy skies to move in from the NE for the second half of the night, but this should be short- lived as some drier mixes into the area on Friday.

Lows tonight will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s, warmest across the NYC metro. Highs then warm up into the upper 50s and lower 60s along the coast, and 65-70 inland. This is slightly above normal.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
High pressure gradually retreats offshore during this time as a slow moving frontal system approaches from the SW. This will allow for increasing clouds Friday night into Saturday. ESE winds will continue during this time with temperatures remaining several degrees below normal, in fact it will be cooler for inland area versus the previous day due to increase in clouds and onshore flow. Warm advection could bring a few showers in late in the day, mainly north and west of NYC.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
An upper level ridge axis shifts offshore late Saturday night into early Sunday and the flow becomes near zonal into early next week. A longwave upper trough across eastern Canada amplifies into the northeast Tuesday and moves offshore by Wednesday as another upper ridge builds to the west of the area and moves into the region, while beginning to flatten, Wednesday. The upper flow again become nearly zonal as a tough becomes sheared out across the northern plains and Great Lakes region Wednesday night into Thursday. At the surface one frontal system slowly approaches from Saturday night through Sunday, while slowly weakening, as the system moves into the upper ridge. Another system passes well to the north with its cold front passing through the region Monday. The trend for these systems Saturday night through Monday as be slower as the upper ridge over the western Atlantic remains highly amplified. The stalled frontal boundary to the south begins to track north as a warm front Monday night and is expected to the north during Wednesday. The area remains warm sectored Thursday as low pressure over the northern plains become sheared. Temperatures will be near to below normal Saturday night into Sunday, then average above normal Sunday night through Thursday, with the warmest days being Wednesday and Thursday. Generally followed the NBM guidance, and for the days with higher temperature spreads, and potential for warmer conditions blended the NBM and 75th percentile. There is still a possibility that a few locations could set record high minimum temperatures Tuesday morning.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A cold front will pass through the region late this evening, followed by a backdoor cold front late tonight into early Friday morning.

VFR across most terminals through 06z, except KISP where IFR conds may come work back in until cold frontal passage around 20z. MVFR stratus likely to work in late tonight into early Fri AM from e to w behind backdoor cold frontal passage. Gradual improvement to VFR from e to w in the early to mid afternoon Friday.

Winds will shift to the NW late this evening 10G15kt. Winds weaken and shift to N and then NE, increasing to around 10 kt for Friday morning push. Winds may become occasionally gusty Fri AM. Winds continue to veer to the E/SE Fri afternoon. SE winds subside less than 10 kt thru aft/eve push.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of windshift, and stratus development/dissipation may be off by an hour or so. NE gusts of 15 to 20 kt possible during Fri Am push.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday Night: VFR. Low prob of patchy MVFR stratus towards morning.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. Low prob of patchy early AM MVFR. Slight chance of showers and MVFR conditions in the afternoon, increasing chances overnight.

Sunday...Likely showers, with MVFR or lower conditions. ESE winds G15-20kt.

Monday...VFR.

Tuesday... Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Fog and low clouds have drifted south, and was south of the eastern ocean waters east of Moriches Inlet. Although, with southerly winds remaining ahead of a cold front, with the loss of daytime heating, some stratus was moving back into the coastal areas. Do not expected visibilities to lower below 1 nm, and if it does, will be localized and brief. Winds will shift to the north and bring in drier air behind a cold front. NE winds behind the cold front later this evening increase 10-15 kt by morning with gusts below 25 kt. Winds will then gradually diminish on Friday. A weak pressure gradient then maintains sub- advisory conditions across the waters Friday night through the middle of next week.

HYDROLOGY
There are currently no hydrologic concerns through the period.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

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Plum Gut Harbor
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Thu -- 02:58 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:07 AM EDT     2.78 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:46 AM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:18 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:55 PM EDT     2.65 feet High Tide
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Plum Gut Harbor, Plum Island, Long Island Sound, New York, Tide feet

The Race
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Thu -- 01:01 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:58 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:47 AM EDT     2.58 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:50 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:22 AM EDT     -3.16 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 01:17 PM EDT     Moonset
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The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current (2) (expired 1993-12-31), knots

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