Saturday, June12, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Nantucket, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:04AMSunset 8:17PM Saturday June 12, 2021 9:38 AM EDT (13:38 UTC) Moonrise 6:38AMMoonset 10:26PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ255 Coastal Waters Extending Out To 25 Nm South Of Marthas Vineyard And Nantucket- 727 Am Edt Sat Jun 12 2021
Today..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers.
Tonight..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog.
Sun night..S winds around 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Mon and Mon night..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue night through Wed night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 727 Am Edt Sat Jun 12 2021
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A cool front will bring rains to the waters early today, with northeast winds behind it. High pres then builds into the waters tonight into Sun. A couple of frontal passages Sun night and Mon late afternoon bring a couple additional opportunities for showers and Thunderstorms. For additional information on possible hazardous weather for the week ahead, please visit www.weather.gov/boston/ehwo


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Nantucket, MA
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location: 41.27, -70.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 121120 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 720 AM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

SYNOPSIS. An upper level disturbance will bring a period of showers this morning, but trending drier by this afternoon. A weaker frontal passage brings a period of steady rains on Sunday night into early Monday. A stronger frontal passage will feature better chances for showers and thunderstorms later Monday into Monday night. Mainly dry and seasonable temperatures for the middle of the week. Turning warmer by late in the week, ahead of the next cold frontal passage around late Friday or Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. 705 AM Update:

Steady, at least light to moderate-intensity rains continue to affect most of SNE as of this writing. Radar shows these rains continue to shift southeast and that will continue to be the case with clearing from north to south by mid to late morning, and around noontime or so for Cape Cod and the Islands. Hourly rain rates have been as much as 0.2" but are more commonly a few hundreths to just over a tenth of an inch. Over the last 6 hours or so, rain totals have been greatest across northern and northeast MA with amounts around half to two-thirds of an inch, tapering to a few hundredths toward southern Hartford County in CT and southern Washington County in RI. Given these trends have opted to increase QPF thru 18z blending in some of the wetter HREF QPF guidance. Also cooled/slowed the rate of temperature rise thru late-morning, but greater diurnal warming expected as skies begin to clear into the afternoon. So a fairly dreary start, and while more clouds than sun should see drier weather prevail by afternoon.

Previous discussion:

Showers will be ongoing early this morning, but will move off the coast by mid/late morning as a mid level shortwave and supporting jet dynamics move farther east. Clouds are likely to linger until mid to late afternoon before the drier air arriving from the north can generate more significant breaks. Clouds will linger longest towards the south coast of New England.

Pressure gradient remains weak, so sea breezes are likely to develop, especially once clouds dissipate and heating becomes more effective. Below normal high temperatures expected due to the morning clouds.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/. Sort of an in-between pattern across southern New England tonight into Sunday. A dissipating cold front will try to move across our region tonight. Mid level flow is more suggestive of a showery pattern, too. However, not a tremendous amount of moisture to work with. Thinking another round of clouds at most tonight. A little different story Sunday afternoon. A low pressure moving in the Great Lakes should push its warm front towards our region late in the day. So besides the increasing clouds, have included a risk for some showers also, mainly across the western half of MA. Near normal temperatures expected.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. Highlights:

* Period of rain Sunday night into early Mon.

* Stronger frontal passage later Mon/Mon night. Is conditional on more clearing, but a few strong/severe t-storms are possible in the interior.

* Other than pop-up showers Tues, Tues-Thurs look mainly dry with seasonable temps.

* Warming into the mid 80s late week. Next frontal passage around late Fri or Sat. Details:

Sunday Night into Monday Night:

Though some small timing differences exist, the more active weather is front-loaded to this period. Couple periods of wet weather: one Sunday night into early Mon, and then the next round for the second half of Mon into Mon night. Of the two periods, its the second one that could be active, if still conditional.

So for Sunday night/early Monday, first bundle of vort max energy moves through NY into New England Sunday night/overnight, then shifting off the coast early on Monday. Decent surge in moisture return with PWAT values in the 1.25-1.3" range per the 21z SREF; dewpoints also tend to rise into the upper 50s to low 60s overnight which will also boost K-indices a bit. Idea for steady rains, possibly with a rumble or two of thunder still looks on track. Given the PWAT values and reasonable consistency in QPF both in individual and NBM guidance, may be some brief downpours at times. Lows mid 50s to low 60s.

Still early and there are some uncertainties, but there are now several ingredients and elements that suggest Monday aftn into early evening could be active, with a conditional strong/severe storm risk in the interior. After rains from overnight and early Monday exit, it looks like the rest of Monday may stay at least considerably cloudy and that may temper surface-based instability and potentially keep temperatures on the cooler side. However a stronger/digging shortwave trough and associated frontal zone arrives mid to late in the day in western-central MA and northern CT. There are some steeper mid-level lapse rates (in the 6.5-7 C/km range) ahead of this frontal system, but looks like cloud cover may keep most- unstable CAPEs in the 1000 J/kg range in our Berkshires, CT Valley to central MA areas. What may help offset the lower-instability values is SNE being positioned in the cyclonic-shear/poleward exit region of a 500 mb 45-50 kt jetstreak. These strengthening wind fields bring effective-layer shear values around 50 kt where the instability axis lies. So, an overlap of wind shear and (limited) instability exist, especially in the NAM/GFS. Timing and the extent of cloud cover are the bigger uncertainties but it's not out of the question that Monday could have some stronger storms around with best chance in the interior. This risk increases if there are more breaks in clouds and stronger heating to destabilize the atmosphere more than currently reflected in the guidance. Something that will bear close watch as we move into the range of the mesoscale models. Weakening showers/storms then roll eastward into more-stable eastern MA/RI later Monday into Monday night. Kept Monday's highs close to NBM in the 70s but possible these may need to be lowered if clouds hang tough; lows in the upper 50s to the lower 60s.

Tuesday through Thursday:

An amplified longwave trough (-2 sigma standardized height anomalies per ensembles) sets up across New England and the broader eastern US around Tues and remains established until later on Thurs.

Pop-up scattered showers following the diurnal heating cycle still look possible into Tuesday, but not a washout and many stay dry most of the time. Cyclonic flow aloft is maintained Wed into Thurs, though surface ridge builds in from the Gt Lakes and should permit dry weather. Midweek looks to be the pick of the workweek weather- wise, with temperatures still looking seasonable or slightly cooler than average.

Friday into Saturday:

Longwave trough over New England is replaced by shortwave ridging on Fri, with a warming trend taking place on SW winds. 850 mb temps rise back into the mid-teens Celsius neighborhood, which brings highs back into the middle 80s by late in the week into Sat. Despite the warmth, dewpoints still look on the lower/comfortable side, though.

Operational models show a potent shortwave trough and associated cold front arriving either later Friday or on Saturday, looking to be the next chance at more widespread precip. Will have to fine-tune the timing of this frontal system. As of now, looks like Saturday has better chances for showers and thunderstorms but still too uncertain to lock this in as of yet.

AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

12z TAF Update:

Today: Moderate confidence.

Mix of flight categories, lowest MVFR-IFR, as bands of steady rains with fog interspersed will continue to progress southeast. Improvement generally 14-17z, earliest north and latest south. Conditions improving to VFR this afternoon. Light winds with sea breezes developing.

Tonight . High confidence. Mainly VFR, but patchy late night fog possible.

Sunday . High confidence. Mainly VFR. Low risk for some showers late in the day, mainly across western MA.

KBOS TAF . Moderate confidence in TAF. Showers this morning as ceilings gradually lower. VFR conditions should return around 16Z.

KBDL TAF . Moderate confidence in TAF. Ceilings gradually lower. Generally lower chance for precipitation compared to farther east. VFR conditions should return around 15Z.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/ .

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA.

Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA, chance TSRA.

Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

Tuesday Night: VFR.

Wednesday: VFR. Breezy.

MARINE. Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Sunday/ .

Winds and seas expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/ .

Sunday Night through Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Tuesday Night through Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . Belk/Loconto NEAR TERM . Belk/Loconto SHORT TERM . Belk LONG TERM . Loconto AVIATION . Belk/Loconto MARINE . Belk/Loconto


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 2 mi50 min E 7 G 9.9 57°F 66°F1011.7 hPa
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 19 mi28 min 7.8 G 9.7
CHTM3 29 mi50 min E 1.9 G 5.1 56°F 64°F1012.1 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 33 mi53 min Calm 58°F 1012 hPa58°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 37 mi50 min 58°F 63°F1012.3 hPa
44090 42 mi42 min 62°F

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Nantucket, Nantucket Memorial Airport, MA1 mi45 minENE 83.00 miHeavy Rain Fog/Mist59°F56°F90%1011.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KACK

Wind History from ACK (wind in knots)
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2 days agoSW10W10W9W11W10SW12W9W10W8SW6W3SW4W4CalmSW3NW5N8N10N11NE11NE10N11NE15NE19
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Tide / Current Tables for Nantucket, Nantucket Island, Massachusetts (2)
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Nantucket
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:54 AM EDT     3.53 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:38 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:15 AM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:45 PM EDT     2.55 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:58 PM EDT     0.76 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:27 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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33.43.53.32.721.20.50.10.20.61.11.62.12.52.52.31.91.40.90.811.52.1

Tide / Current Tables for Nantucket Harbor Entrance Channel, Massachusetts Current
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Nantucket Harbor Entrance Channel
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:45 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:20 AM EDT     -1.35 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 06:38 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:32 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:32 AM EDT     1.23 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 02:02 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:50 PM EDT     -1.32 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:02 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:27 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 10:51 PM EDT     1.02 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.3-0.1-0.2-0.4-0.6-1-1.3-1.2-0.50.51.11.20.70.30-0.1-0.4-0.7-1.1-1.3-0.9-00.81

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