Sunday, December15, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Groton Long Point, CT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 4:21PM Sunday December 15, 2019 12:44 PM EST (17:44 UTC) Moonrise 8:59PMMoonset 11:09AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ237 Block Island Sound- 716 Am Est Sun Dec 15 2019
.gale warning in effect through this evening...
Today..W winds 25 to 30 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt this afternoon. Gusts up to 45 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
Tonight..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 45 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon night..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Rain.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Wed through Thu..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Am Est Sun Dec 15 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Powerful low pres will lift north through eastern canada today, resulting in strong westerly gales into this evening. High pres builds briefly over the waters on Mon, then is followed by a storm system approaching from the southwest Mon night. This low will lift northeast and pass over the southern waters on Tue. Westerly gales possible Wed into Wed night. Large high pres over central canada will then shift into eastern canada by next Fri. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Groton Long Point , CT
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location: 41.3, -71.99     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 151503 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1003 AM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure builds in from the west today as low pressure continues to track well to the north. High pressure briefly builds over the region tonight, then drifts offshore Monday. A low pressure system impacts the region Monday through Tuesday, departing to the northeast Tuesday night. High pressure builds into the region on Wednesday and remains over the area through the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Forecast on track with just a few minor adjustments to reflect latest observations. With the cyclonic flow remaining across the northeast clouds have begun to move back into the western zones. So increased cloud cover through this morning, as drying should begin this afternoon with the ridge building. Also adjusted dew points and temperatures, which were running higher than forecast.

The deep upper closed low that affected to the region Saturday will continue to track through eastern Canada as the flow across the area becomes zonal. Snow streamers were coming off the eastern Great Lakes in the strong west flow. The flurries should remain west of the region, however, would not be too surprised if a few made it into the lower Hudson Valley. Meanwhile the next shortwave to affect the region will be amplifying into the intermountain southwest. With a zonal, progressive flow, this shortwave will quickly translate eastward. However, there remains uncertainty as to the timing of this system.

Meanwhile weak surface ridging builds into the area today as the developing surface low tracks through the southern plains and into the lower Mississippi Valley. With a strong pressure gradient between the departing low to the north and high pressure to the west, strong and gusty westerly winds are expected. These winds and gusts will diminish early this evening as the surface high builds into the area. The high will be over the area through tonight, with the center of the high shifting off the Mid Atlantic coast toward morning. The high will keep the frontal system suppressed to the south with precipitation remaining to the southwest of the area 12Z Monday.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY/. While the guidance has come into a little better agreement with the shortwave tracking toward the area, there still remains uncertainty with the track of the low. The latest trend has been a shift a little farther to the south. And later guidance may continue this trend or even shift the low back to the north. The uncertainty will have impacts to the timing and type of precipitation across the forecast area.

With the latest trends have held off the timing of the precipitation as the high shows weak signals of damming, keeping cold air across the northern tier. So, will have likely probabilities after 18Z and only across the far southern zones with low end chance probabilities reaching much of the area by later Monday afternoon.

With cold air in place precipitation will be in the form of light snow. And then with warmer air moving in along the coast, especially aloft, a mix of rain, snow, and sleet will be possible late day. There may even be pockets of light freezing rain across northeastern New Jersey and into northern portions of New York City.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. STORM SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

Timing and placement differences remain with the track of the low through Tuesday night with the GFS a little quicker and farther north than the ECMWF. Thus confidence is on the low end with precipitation types across the region. And the NAM was showing colder lower levels as a warm layer moves in aloft, with a strengthening warm frontal boundary. So, used a blend for precipitation types Monday night through Tuesday. With the possibility of colder surface air remaining Monday night into Tuesday, there may be more freezing rain closer to the coast than currently forecast. While inland may be predominately freezing rain.

The low will be tracking well east of the area Tuesday night with the precipitation quickly ending. Drying conditions are expected by later Tuesday night as the low deepens and accelerates northeast to eventually southeast of Nova Scotia by early Wednesday.

For the rest of the long term, high pressure starts to build back into the region on Wednesday and will remain over the area through the end of the week. Expect dry conditions with temperatures below normal. Low pressure may impact the area over the weekend.

AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Strong low pressure tracks north through eastern Canada today, with weak high pressure building into the region tonight. A weak area of low pressure approaches the region Monday.

VFR through Monday 12z.

Main concern will be gusty W winds, sustained 20-25ktG30-35kt today, with an isolated peak gusts to 40 kt possible. Winds and gusts gradually subside through the evening push, diminishing late tonight.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. Monday. MVFR/IFR conds in light snow/wintry mix becoming likely for NYC/MJ metro terminals in the afternoon. Monday night. IFR or lower likely. NYC metros and coastal terminals, wintry mix gradually changing to plain rain late. KEWR/KTEB/KBDR could see freezing rain linger into early Tue morning push. KHPN/KSWF wintry mix, including freezing rain. Tuesday. IFR or lower conds. Wintry mix, possibly changing back to all snow at KSWF before ending. Rain at NYC/NJ metro and coastal terminals, possibly changing to wintry mix before ending late. N gusts to 20kt developing Tue afternoon. Tuesday night. VFR. NW winds G20kt NYC metros/KISP mainly eve. Wednesday. VFR. NW winds G25kt mainly afternoon. Thursday. VFR.

MARINE. No changes to the winds and seas at this time.

Gale force wind gusts today, subsiding this evening, and falling below SCA by late tonight. Ocean seas will be a bit slower to respond with residual s/se swells, but should fall below SCA from w to e through Monday morning.

Sub-SCA condition expected through Tuesday morning, with SCA conditions becoming increasingly likely late Tuesday, and then likely all waters Tuesday Night through Thursday. Potential for a period of gale conditions on the ocean waters Wednesday Night with passage of an arctic front.

HYDROLOGY. Remaining flooding concerns are for the larger stem rivers in CT with a combination of the recent rainfall and melting snow to the north.

Another significant precipitation event is likely Monday through Tuesday, with liquid equivalent QPF of 0.5 to 1.25 inches possible. There is uncertainty in this amount given uncertainty in the track of the low and frontal positions.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still operating at reduced power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ335-338-345. Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ330-340-350- 353-355.

SYNOPSIS . 19 NEAR TERM . BC/19 SHORT TERM . 19 LONG TERM . JM/19 AVIATION . NV MARINE . NV HYDROLOGY . 19 EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 5 mi44 min WNW 26 G 34 46°F 1002.8 hPa (+2.9)28°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 7 mi62 min W 12 G 20 47°F 45°F1005 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 17 mi62 min 46°F 46°F1005.9 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 37 mi62 min W 9.9 G 17 46°F 44°F1004.2 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 38 mi62 min W 20 G 27 46°F 42°F1004 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 42 mi119 min WNW 13 47°F 1004 hPa29°F
PRUR1 42 mi56 min 47°F 28°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 42 mi56 min W 17 G 25 47°F 1004.5 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 45 mi56 min WSW 24 G 27 45°F 44°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 47 mi62 min WNW 16 G 28 47°F 41°F1003.6 hPa
PVDR1 47 mi62 min W 15 G 25 47°F 1003.6 hPa28°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 49 mi68 min WNW 15 G 20 45°F 43°F1005.8 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT4 mi48 minWNW 21 G 3310.00 miOvercast and Breezy47°F28°F50%1005 hPa
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI11 mi51 minWSW 14 G 2410.00 miOvercast48°F32°F54%1005 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY16 mi50 minW 17 G 29 mi48°F32°F54%1006.3 hPa
Block Island State Airport, RI23 mi48 minW 20 G 3410.00 miMostly Cloudy and Breezy47°F33°F59%1005.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGON

Wind History from GON (wind in knots)
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1 day agoE5E7E8E7NE8E8E9E10E10NE8E10E11
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2 days agoN7N4CalmCalmCalmCalmN3N4N3N3N4NE3N3N4N5N5N5SE13SE12SE11SE14
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Tide / Current Tables for Noank, Mystic River entrance, Connecticut
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Noank
Click for Map
Sun -- 05:12 AM EST     0.25 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:08 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 10:46 AM EST     2.85 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:19 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:03 PM EST     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:59 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:32 PM EST     2.20 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.91.510.70.40.30.40.91.72.42.82.82.62.11.50.90.40-0.200.61.31.92.2

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current (2) (expired 1993-12-31)
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The Race
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:15 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:30 AM EST     -3.23 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:30 AM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Sun -- 10:08 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 10:26 AM EST     3.22 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 01:26 PM EST     -0.01 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:19 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 04:54 PM EST     -3.80 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 07:59 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:10 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 10:59 PM EST     3.22 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.90.5-1.3-2.6-3.2-3.1-2.3-0.80.72.13.132.10.8-1.1-2.7-3.6-3.8-3.3-1.9-0.31.32.73.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.